金闲评
Sunday, January 27, 2008
  臺大怪客4.林毅夫
2006-07-22 臺灣大學校史館

「大陸知名經濟學人、中共總理朱鎔基的最重要智囊、北京大學中國經濟研究中心主任林毅夫」、「國軍軍官楷模林正誼」、「叛逃軍官林正誼」、「台大一代會主席林正義」,看到這些報導,使我的思緒漸漸轉回民國六十年的台大校園。

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林正義、林正誼、林毅夫都是同一個人,是我們同一屆農工系水利組的同學,而且是一同在成功嶺受訓的戰友!筆者寫過幾篇臺大的奇人,林正義可說是奇人中的奇人,他的傳奇人生,在六、七○年代還是我們談話中的禁忌。現在兩岸已經大為開放,因此可以在此略為述說林正義傳奇的上半生。

林正義是宜蘭人,幼年家境十分清苦,讀初中的時候,母親幫人洗衣維持家計,林正義每天放學必須先到宜蘭新生綜合醫院載運餿水回去餵豬。由於家住夜市附近,環境十分吵雜,林正義晚飯後先倒頭大睡,到了午夜十二點才起來唸書,唸到第二天清晨為止。由於功課很好,宜蘭初中畢業後獲得保送,直升宜蘭高中就讀。在宜蘭高中,林正義高一唸的是「忠」班,高二轉到「信」班,「信」班讀的就是丙組,準備考台大醫科的那一組(當時大專聯考的分組和現在不太一樣,醫學院和農學院都是丙組)。不過,林正義大學聯考並沒有考上臺大醫科,而是分發到臺大農學院農工系的水利組就讀。

那個時候,國內先是發生了轟轟烈烈的保釣運動(臺灣有史以來第一次學生運動),民國六十年十月二十六日中華民國又退出聯合國,臺大校園一時風起雲湧,但是一般的大一新生對時事其實都還懵懵懂懂,而林正義卻不然,發起了「大一學生代表會」組織(簡稱「一代會」,後被選為「一代會」主席,和當時的「全校班代表聯誼會」(簡稱「班聯會」)、畢業生代表聯誼會(簡稱「畢聯會」)分庭抗禮,在臺大校園爭取發言權。

由於投入太多時間在「一代會」,林正義大一上學期的功課並不好,可說是「滿堂紅」。那一年,大專學生成功嶺受訓第一次從「暑訓」改為「寒訓」,也就是大一上學期上完課之後,十二月份就要上成功嶺受訓八個禮拜。

林正義人高馬大,身高一八三公分,在受訓連隊算是非常突出,受訓又很認真,棉被總是折得有稜有角,深得班長、排長喜愛。在受訓到第四、五週的時候,林正義向部隊班長、排長報告,他決定要投筆從戎,不回台大唸書了。臺大的學生在成功嶺受訓,深感軍中袍澤的溫暖、以及對國家的向心力,決定留在軍中,對當時被社會譏為「來來來,來臺大;去去去,去美國」的臺大學生,真是一個震撼彈,也是大專學生成功嶺集訓十幾年來的頭一遭、一大賣點。當時的行政院副院長兼國防部長蔣經國先生特地到成功嶺視察,並發表這一大振奮人心的消息,各大媒體廣為披露,一時傳為美談。

林正義刻意不進入與他背景較相近的中正理工學院就讀,而選擇進入軍事訓練較嚴格、與他背景較不同的鳳山陸軍官校就讀。進入軍校之後,林正義改名林正誼,以與從前的林正義有所區別,真是煞費苦心。在陸軍官校,林正誼不負各級長官的期盼,以第二名的出眾成績畢業。畢業之後又考上政大企管研究所就讀,拿到碩士學位之後才下部隊,被派到金門馬山連當連長。在求學過程,蔣經國已經高昇行政院院長,但是還是關心林正義的近況,並囑咐當時的總政戰部主任王昇將軍特別照顧林正義。

金門馬山連在金門東北角,是國軍距離大陸的最前哨,與共軍據點角嶼退潮時的距離只有一千八百多公尺,可以掌握大陸福建白河口、小嶝角、刀嶼、大伯嶼、小伯嶼等一線共軍的動態。馬山連因為常常要向到前線視察的長官和外賓們簡報,因此,只有最優秀的基層軍官才能出任馬山連長。由此可見國軍對於林正誼可說是極其呵護與關照。

民國六十七年十二月初,中共召開歷史性的十一屆三中全會,以鄧小平、陳雲、葉劍英為主的集團,擊敗了以華國鋒為主的「凡是派」掌握政權,並界定此黨的政策方針從軍事建設轉移到經濟建設。十二月十六日,中美斷交。六十八年元旦,中共全國人大常會發表「告台灣同胞書」,中共國防部長徐向前宣佈停止對金門的砲擊。

這些重大事件,或許改變了林信誼的想法。民國六十八年五月十六日傍晚,林正誼帶著一些機密文件,繞過了哨兵的視線,由馬山觀測所附近向海中潛行,並藉著一顆籃球的協助之下,載沉載浮地游向大陸角嶼,成功地到達大陸。金門地區最忌諱軍人叛逃,晚點名少了一人,立刻大陣仗搜索、演習,「活要見人、死要見屍」。一時兵荒馬亂了好幾天,但是始終找不到林正誼。傳說中,林正誼帶走了金門極端機密的駐地作戰計畫,裡面註記了金門兵力部署、防禦演習、反登陸、反空降、以及沿海防禦共軍登陸的瓊麻、刺條等數量。

因為始終找不到林正誼,五月中旬,金防部下令駐守南雄的三一九師與駐守金東的二八四師互換陣地;六月,一五八師移防台灣,一二七師改駐小金門,一四六師則駐守金中。短短一個月,駐守大、小金門的五個師全部移防。同時,重新制訂「通訊密碼表」和金門的作戰計畫。據說林正誼到大陸後,拒絕中共以他做為對台灣統戰的工具,因此中共也沒有發表他的消息。因為一直沒有找到林正誼屍體,陸軍總部在事件發生一年後,依據軍中作業規定,宣佈林正誼死亡。林正誼的直屬師長、旅長、營長全部受到不同程度的牽連,同時期投筆從戎的大學轉學生,從此在軍中受到壓抑,影像層面不可謂不大。

但是林正誼並沒有死亡,他成功登陸大陸之後,改名林毅夫,進入北大研究生院,取得經濟學碩士。當諾貝爾經濟學獎得主舒爾茲教授訪問北大的時候,林毅夫主動要求擔任翻譯而大受賞識,一九八二年在舒爾茲教授的協助下,獲得獎學金赴美國芝加哥大學攻讀經濟學博士,一九八六年畢業,再赴耶魯大學博士後研究一年,一九八七年回到北京大學任教,並先後擔任國務院農村發展研究所副所長、農村部副部長。一九九三年,林毅夫集合了大陸改革後首批接受西方經濟學教育的學者,成立「北京大學中國經濟研究中心」,成為中共本土經濟研究的重鎮,也成為中共領導人最重要的經濟智囊。

一九九三年底,林毅夫發表「關鍵在於戰略目標的轉移—評中共中央十四屆三中全會的決議」,除了肯定中國大陸的改革開放之外,也檢討了大陸當時經濟問題的所在,例如:一放就活,一活就亂,一亂就收,一收就死的循環;國有企業改革成效不彰;政府的財政收入占國民收入比重、以及中央政府收入占整個政府收入比重的不合理;貪污腐敗現象嚴重等。其後幾年,中共總理朱鎔基主導的經濟改革理念中,都和林毅夫的分析不謀而合,因此才會有「朱鎔基的智囊」之稱。

中國經濟研究中心、或是林毅夫,是中國經濟研究本土化、規範化、國際化的主要推動者。由於國際學術界對中國大陸的發展有高度興趣,林毅夫的學術地位愈益提高。經濟學家傅里曼曾經說過一句名言:「誰能把中國的經濟問題解釋清楚,誰就能得到諾貝爾獎。」林毅夫也常談起中國人到現在為止仍和諾貝爾獎絕緣,他認為按照中國目前的發展狀況,至遲到二0三0年,大陸將成為全球最大的經濟體,也將執世界經濟學的牛耳,就如同歷史上,世界最大的經濟體由英國轉變到美國的歷史一樣,最後終將轉變到中國來。他認為他個人正爲著這一天在播種,至於自己能不能獲得諾貝爾獎,那就無法預料了。

筆者因為與林毅夫有過同學之誼,因此對他的前半生僅做敘述而不作評論,對他的心路歷程、思考邏輯亦略而不談,此一部份就由學弟、學妹們自己做判斷吧!

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Tuesday, January 22, 2008
  Top Chinese economist set for Bank job
By Richard McGregor in Beijing
Published: January 21 2008, FT

The World Bank will appoint a Chinese economist to a senior position in a move that will buttress the institution’s ties with Beijing and lift the profile of developing countries.

Lin Yifu, or Justin Lin, is expected to be appointed as the organisation’s chief economist, according to bank officials quoted by agencies and the Wall Street Journal.

Prof Lin is one of China’s leading economists, as the head of a think-tank at Peking University and an adviser to the central government.

Highly respected as an economist, his appointment will also strengthen Beijing’s ties to the World Bank.

The World Bank is trying to refurbish its relations with China, joining it as a development partner in Africa and trying to attract more Chinese to work with it in Washington and elsewhere.

Prof Lin has written extensively on China’s famine during the “Great Leap Forward” in the early 1960s, when tens of millions died, and more recently was instrumental in shaping Beijing’s new policy to reinvigorate the rural economy.

The so-called “New Socialist Countryside” policy was the centrepiece of the government’s economic programme announced at the annual session of China’s parliament in 2006.

His recent research has focused the continuing role of the state in China’s economy, and the potential challenge its success poses to conventional theories about the greater efficiencies of the private sector.

Prof Lin gained a PhD at the University of Chicago in 1986 and has twice been awarded China’s top economics honour, the Sun Yefang Prize, in 1993 and 2001.

But Prof Lin is just as well known for his own extraordinary personal history as he is for his professional achievements.

Prof Lin defected from Taiwan in 1979, when stationed as a soldier on the heavily fortified island of Kinmen, just off the coast of China, near Fujian province.

Most famously, Prof Lin, according to the story he himself has told friends, swam from Taiwan to reach the mainland.

Taipei decided on “humanitarian” grounds in 2002 to allow Mr Lin to return home for his father’s funeral, a decision that the then Taiwan defence minister said filled him with “righteous fury”. Prof Lin in the end decided to pay his filial respects in Beijing.

Prof Lin retains an indirect link to Taiwan through his wife, who “represents” the island, over which China claims sovereignty, in the National People’s Congress in Beijing.

The announcement of Prof’s Lin appointment could come as early as this week. The ministry of finance in Beijing said it expected a decision on the issue by the World Bank board soon.

The bank once counted Beijing as its largest client, but China’s fast-growing economy has freed it of reliance on foreign development bodies.

In a coup for World Bank president Robert Zoellick last month, Beijing agreed for the first time to become a donor to the World Bank’s fund for poor countries.

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  Lin's long swim
Jan 17th 2008, The Economist

An economist with an unusual past

THIRTY years ago China's leaders used to call the World Bank a tool of imperialism. Now China is one of the bank's top borrowers, and in December it became a donor, on a small scale.

China may soon make a big contribution to the bank's intellectual ranks. According to whispers at the institution, its new chief economist will be a Chinese citizen. Justin Yifu Lin is the director of the China Centre for Economic Research at Peking University. He has twice won his country's top economic honour, the Sun Yefang award, and he has published in the leading journal of his profession, the American Economic Review. But this brilliant record masks an unlikely past. He was born not in the People's Republic of China (the Mainland) but in Taiwan (the Republic of China). He defected to the mainland after serving in the Taiwanese armed forces.

After earning a master's degree in political economy from Peking University, at a time when it was still steeped in Marxism, he earned an economics doctorate from the University of Chicago, where the market reigns. So his intellectual portfolio is perfectly hedged. That will serve him well in his new post. His adopted land has become an inspiration to many poor countries, especially in Africa. Their policymakers argue that China's path to prosperity defies and discredits the simple formulas propagated in Washington.

Mr Lin is a student of China's economic reforms. But his scholarship, like his past, straddles ideological gaps. He believes governments go wrong when they defy the law of comparative advantage, promoting heavy industries in countries where capital is scarce and labour abundant. The government's first duty, he argues, is “to remove all possible obstacles for the function of free, open and competitive markets”. Spoken like a Chicago man.

But Mr Lin also says government has a second duty. As an economy develops, the state should coax firms into more sophisticated industries. This prodding may be needed for several reasons. To cite one: firms may not know which industries are viable, and which are not. So the government should subsidise pioneers who break a path for others.

Washington's financial institutions were once notorious for their dogmatic prescriptions. Now they prefer piecemeal reforms and eclectic advice. That is a tide Mr Lin can probably swim with.

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