金闲评
Australia's new PM is old Asia hand
By Andrew Symon, Asia Times Online
Nov 27, 2007
SINGAPORE - Perceptions can play an important role in shaping international relations and here Australia's prime minister-elect, Kevin Rudd, will take office with some advantages, especially in Asia.
As a fluent Mandarin speaker - the only Western leader of government now or ever, at least in contemporary times, with this ability - the one time diplomat will clearly be able to gain Beijing's interest and attention. This must carry benefits in diplomatic, security and trade negotiations when leaders meet on a bilateral basis or in multilateral forums.
Already this has been demonstrated at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders' meeting in Sydney in September. As parliamentary leader of the federal Australian Labor Party, then the main opposition party, the 50-year-old Rudd joined Prime Minister John Howard in welcoming Chinese President Hu Jintao to Australia. Rudd broke into Mandarin after a brief introduction in English, upstaging Howard. Rudd later had a 30-minute meeting with Hu without resort to interpreters. And during the recent election campaign he was interviewed by Chinese television in Mandarin several times.
Appearances and style do count. While a Rudd Labor government will not depart radically from the foreign and security policies of Howard's conservative Liberal-National Party government, the relationship with the US and the Bush administration will not be the sort of lock-step affair that characterized ties between Canberra and Washington under Howard.
Rudd will demonstrate to Asia that his government is more independent of Washington through his commitment to withdraw combat troops from Iraq and sign the Kyoto Accord on reducing the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and combating global warming. Australia will remain a loyal ally of the US but Rudd should torpedo the view of some in Asia of Canberra having a subservient relationship with Washington.
At the same time, Rudd has repeatedly affirmed that the US alliance, under the broad framework of the 1951 Australia-New Zealand-United States Security Treaty (ANZUS), will continue to be a cornerstone of Australian foreign and defense policies. The US military will continue to maintain important communications centers in the US satellite defense system and Australia will host joint and multi-country military operations with the US. Late on Saturday, with Labor’s success in the election secured, Rudd spoke with President Bush and plans to visit Washington early next year.
Australia will remain a loyal, although more independent ally of the US. This has been very much the usual Labor Party position in government despite left-wing elements in the party opposed to the US alliance. The troop withdrawal is more symbolic, with Australia having only 550 combat soldiers in Iraq and Rudd saying Australia will continue to provide aid for Iraqi reconstruction. But these initial measures over Kyoto and Iraq are important and will be seen by Asian governments and public opinion as marking a new era for Australia on the regional and international stages.
Already, Indonesia's President Bambang Yudohoyono has invited Rudd to attend the key United Nations meeting in Bali in December to determine a successor framework to the Kyoto Accord when that expires in 2012, while Malaysia's leader, Abdullah Badawi, says Rudd's Iraq plan will "improve the country's international standing".
Australia under Labor will put more emphasis on pursuing Australian objectives through multilateral diplomacy in the UN and regional forums as against the more bilateral style of Howard's government and in particular its very heavy weighting on close alignment with the US position. It was the lack of UN support for the US's Iraq invasion in 2003 that is the reason for Labor's opposition to Australian troop deployment, in contrast to Labor's support for the first Gulf War in 1990-91 when in government under Bob Hawke, and Labor's support for the UN sanctioned military invasion in 2001 against the al-Qaeda- supporting Taliban regime in Afghanistan after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the US.
Indeed, there are suggestions that Australia will increase its forces in Afghanistan as it withdraws from Iraq. Rudd in fact may find that Afghanistan becomes an early concern as the apparent strengthening of Taliban forces point to a long struggle ahead. And the situation there has started to come into sharper focus for the Australian public with four soldiers killed in fighting in the last few months.
Looking ahead at US-Australia relations, should the Democrats take the presidency in the US in 2008, which seems very likely, then almost certainly Canberra, under the moderately left of center Labor government, and Washington will see eye to eye on the importance of a multilateral system, the Middle East, Iraq, Kyoto, global warming and many other issues
In Australia's relations with Asia, there will be many continuities with the outgoing John Howard government, with Rudd's government building further on work done over the last 11 years.
Howard was perhaps unfairly seen in Asia, especially in his earlier years as prime minister, as being not particularly comfortable in Asia and in some ways more of a 1950s and '60s man, preferring an old-fashioned Australia tied closely to Britain.
Yet many overlook the fact that Howard presided over an unprecedented strengthening of Australia's economic links with China, driven especially by exports of Australian mineral, energy and agricultural commodities and increasing Chinese investment in Australia. There has also been remarkable growth in the numbers of immigrants from China settling in Australia as well as growth in students studying and tourists visiting down under.
Under his watch, China's Hu addressed the Australian Parliament in October 2003, the first time this was done by any Asian leader, a day after the address by George W Bush. Negotiations for a free trade or preferential trade agreement with China were also begun, following the US-Australia Free Trade Agreement signed in 2004.
The Howard government also differentiated - although probably regretting that it did so publicly - Australia's policy over Taiwan from that of the US. In August 2004, then foreign minister Alexander Downer during a visit to Beijing said that under the ANZUS Treaty, Australia was not automatically committed to provide military support to the US in any Taiwan Strait crisis.
This is true as the treaty in fact is short and quite general although Australia is still obligated under the treaty to act diplomatically with the US in such a situation. Rudd, then shadow foreign minister, more carefully stated that Australia’s interest was to see the use of peaceful means to deal with tensions and that Australia was not obliged to say what it would or would not do in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
As far as Southeast Asia is concerned, Howard also sought to strengthen relations after a fairly passive start. Relations with Indonesia, especially, plummeted as a result of Australia's military support for East Timor's independence as the head of the UN force sent in 1999 to pacify the country after Indonesian military inspired militias went on a rampage. Here the US alliance was important as Washington pressured Jakarta to "invite" the UN to send the force, although the US did not contribute American troops.
Relations though have been rebuilt with Jakarta, as symbolized by Howard's effort to attend Yudhoyono's inauguration in August 2004, the only leader outside the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to do so. Underlining further the effort that Howard's government has put into Indonesia-Australia relations is the new and broad security pact signed between the two countries in November 2006, replacing a 1995 agreement that was jettisoned by Jakarta during the Timor crisis.
As far as Southeast Asia and Asean as a whole are concerned, again the Howard government can boast of real advances. Australia is pursuing a free trade agreement with ASEAN and on the diplomatic and security front has signed the 1976 ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, after some concern that it might cut against ANZUS, so that Australia could become a founding member of the East Asia summit, first held in Kuala Lumpur in December 2005, joining the 10 ASEAN countries, Japan, China, South Korea, India and New Zealand.
Despite all this, Australia's relations with Asia have probably been hurt by measures Howard took in response to Islamic extremism and terrorism internationally and the possible threat to Australia domestically, especially in the wake of the Bali bombings in October 2002.
The specter of Islamic terrorism within Australia has led to an alarming degree of xenophobia. As many leading figures - from former conservative prime minister Malcolm Fraser to former Labor prime minister Paul Keating - warn, Bali has encouraged a climate of suspicion, insularity and narrow nationalism, seriously eroding the strong multicultural and multiracial policies and attitudes that had developed under both conservative and Labor governments since the 1970s.
Severe new security laws have been established, there has been often heavy-handed detention of illegal immigrants from the Middle East, an "Australian knowledge and values" test has been established that immigrants must pass before gaining Australian citizenship, and there have been some nasty cases of street abuse and racism towards Australians of Middle Eastern and also African background.
All this has reinforced the still sometimes strong view among people in Asia that Australia is still beset by racism. So a critical task of the Rudd government will be to re-cast and re-assert a non-discriminatory and "fair go" Australia. This will in turn enhance Australia's moral capital and "soft power" in regional and international forums.
To this end, what also will not have escaped notice in Asia is the fact that Rudd's daughter, Jessica, recently married an Australian of Chinese background. In election night celebrations on Saturday in Brisbane they were both on stage and under the spotlight with the rest of the immediate Rudd family. While interracial marriages are hardly a big deal in Australia - and of course there are plenty in Asia, Europe and North America - it does help to promote Australia as the open, tolerant and inclusive country that Rudd has declared is his objective to strengthen.
Andrew Symon is a Singapore-based journalist and analyst. In Australia he worked in the Senate of the national Parliament and as a ministerial speech writer in the 1980s. He has been working in Southeast Asia since 1992. Andrew.symon@yahoo.com.sdg
Labels: Asia, Australia, Kevin Rudd
澳洲新總理陸克文是“亞洲通”
撰文 Andrew Symon. 亞洲時報
2007/11/27, 週二
新加坡---在塑造國際關係時，感知可以發揮重要作用，澳洲當選總理陸克文（Kevin Rudd）就任後在這方面具有一些優勢，特別是在亞洲。
陸克文能流利地說普通話，他也許是古往今來第一位具有這種能力的西方領導人。這位前領導人顯然能贏得北京的興趣和注意。因此，雙方領導人舉行雙邊會談或在多邊論壇會晤時，這必定會產生外交、安全和貿易談判方面的好處。
去年9月在悉尼舉行的亞太經濟合作組織峰會已顯示了這一點。當時作為澳洲主要反對黨工黨在議會的領導人，50歲的陸克文與總理霍華德（John Howard）一道歡迎到訪的中國主席胡錦濤。陸克文在用英文做一番簡單的介紹後，用國語會談，搶走了霍華德的鏡頭。後來他還在沒有翻譯的情況下與胡錦濤舉行了30分鐘會談。不久前在競選運動期間，他有幾次接受中國電視臺的漢語採訪。
外在的表現與風格的確重要。陸克文領導的工黨政府雖然不會激進偏離霍華德領導的自由黨－國家黨聯盟政府的外交和安全政策，但也不會像霍華德政府那樣對美國和布什政府亦步亦趨。
陸克文將通過行動向亞洲國家表示，他的政府將更獨立於華盛頓。他為此而採取的行動將包括從伊拉克撤軍，並簽署有關減少溫室氣體排放量和遏制氣候變暖的《東京議定書》。澳洲將仍是美國的忠實盟友，但陸克文將會打消在一些亞洲國家的看法，即堪培拉與華盛頓是從屬關係。
與此同時，陸克文反覆證實，根據1951年《澳洲、紐西蘭和美國安全條約》這個大框架，澳美同盟將繼續是澳洲外交和防務政策的基石。美軍將繼續維持在美國衛星防衛系統中的重要通訊中心，而澳洲將舉辦包括美國在內的聯合、多邊軍事演習。上週六晚，在工黨贏得選舉後，陸克文與布什總統通話，並計劃明年初訪問華盛頓。
雖然會更加獨立些，但澳洲將仍是美國忠實的盟友。儘管工黨中的左翼反對與美國結盟，但該黨的政策一直是如此。從伊拉克撤軍只是象徵性的舉動，因為澳洲在伊拉克只有550名作戰士兵，而且陸克文同時還表示，澳洲將會增加對伊拉克的重建援助。但澳洲對《京都議定書》和伊拉克的這些初步措施是非常重要的，在亞洲一些國家的政府和公共輿論看來，它們標誌澳洲在地區和國際舞臺上進入一個新時代。
印尼總統尤多約諾已經邀請陸克文出席12月份聯合國將在峇厘島舉行的有關決定《京都議定書》後續框架的重要會議（注：《京都議定書》2012年到期）。與此同時，馬來西亞領導人巴達維說，陸克文的計劃將“大大改善澳洲的國際地位”。
與霍華德政府的雙邊外交和緊隨美國的政策不同，工黨政府將會更加重視通過聯合國多邊外交和地區論壇實現澳洲的目標。2003年工黨之所以反對澳洲向伊拉克派兵，是因為美國入侵伊拉克沒有得到聯合國的授權。霍克（Bob Hawke）執政時，工黨支持1990-91期間的第一次海灣戰爭。2001年“911恐怖襲擊”發生後，工黨支持聯合國授權對支持基地組織的阿富汗塔利班政權採取行動。
事實上，有跡象顯示，澳洲在從伊拉克撤軍的同時會增加其在阿富汗的兵力。陸克文也許會發現，由於塔利班力量顯著增強，那裏將會有一場長期的戰鬥在等著他。在近幾個月，已有4名澳洲士兵在阿富汗的戰鬥中喪生，澳洲公眾開始強烈關注那裏的形勢。
展望澳美關係，如果民主黨在2008年的美國總統選舉中獲勝－這看起來非常有可能，堪培拉中間偏左的工黨溫和政府與華盛頓幾乎肯定會在很多問題上看法相同，如多邊體系的重要性、中東問題、伊拉克問題、《京都議定書》以及全球氣候變暖問題。
陸克文將會延續並加強前任霍華德政府過去11年的很多亞洲政策。
霍華德也許在亞洲受到了不公正的對待，特別是在他就任之初，亞洲對他尤其不滿，更多地把他看作是1950年代和1960年代時期那樣的澳洲領導人，更喜歡與英國維持舊式的密切關係。
然而，人們所忽視的是，正是他將澳洲與中國的經濟關係帶到了前所未有的密切程度，尤其是擴大了澳洲對中國的礦產、能源和農產品出口，並增加了中國在澳洲的投資。與此同時，定居澳洲的中國移民以及來澳洲留學的中國學生和觀光客也在大幅增長。
2003年10月，在美國總統布什對澳洲議會發表演講一天後，胡錦濤在霍華德的主持下也在澳洲議會發表演講，這是亞洲國家領導人第一次獲此殊榮。在2004年《澳美自由貿易協議》簽署後，澳洲與中國的自由貿易或優惠貿易協議談判也已開始。
霍華德政府對臺灣的政策與美國的也有所不同－儘管它可能對這種分歧的公開化感到遺憾。2004年8月，時任澳洲外長唐納（Alexander Downer）訪問北京期間說，根據《澳洲、紐西蘭和美國安全條約》，澳洲沒有義務自動向捲入台海危機的美國提供軍事支持。
這項條約簡短且不具體，唐納這樣解讀並沒有錯。但根據條約，一旦美國捲入台海危機，澳洲仍有義務在外交上與美國保持一致。當時的“影子外長”陸克文則更加謹慎地聲明說，中國使用和平手段處理緊張關係符合澳洲的利益，而澳洲沒有義務去聲明在台海危機中它做什麼或不做什麼。
對於東南亞國家，在經過起初的被動後，霍華德也盡力加強與有關國家的關係。1999年印尼軍方支持准軍事組織在東帝汶發動暴亂，澳洲作為聯合國軍隊的領頭部隊平息那裏的暴亂，實際上是在軍事上支持東帝汶獨立。此後，澳印關係急轉直下。在那次行動中，盟友美國的作用非常重要，因為華盛頓迫使雅加達“邀請”聯合國向東帝汶派遣部隊，而美國自身並沒有提供維和部隊。
霍華德一直在努力重建與雅加達的關係。作為一個象徵性的舉動，霍華德2004年8月出席了印尼總統尤多約諾的就職儀式，而且他是東盟外唯一這麼做的政府領導人。2006年11月，兩國簽署了一項內容更廣泛的新的安全協議，以取代東帝汶危機期間雅加達拋棄的1995年協議。這是霍華德重建與雅加達的關係的又一重要舉措。
對於作為一個整體的東盟，霍華德同樣取得了真正的外交成就。澳洲正在努力與東盟達成自由貿易協議。同時在外交和安全方面，儘管國內有人擔心《澳洲、紐西蘭和美國安全條約》受到削弱，澳洲還是簽署了1976年的《東盟友好合作條約》，以便能夠成為東亞峰會的創始國之一。2005年12月，東亞峰會首次吉隆坡舉行，與會國除澳洲外，還有東盟10個成員國、日本、中國、南韓、印度和紐西蘭。
儘管取得了上述外交成就，但在2002年峇厘島爆炸事件後，霍華德為應對國際伊斯蘭極端主義和恐怖主義以及澳洲內部面臨的潛在威脅而採取的措施，也許損害了澳洲與亞洲的關係。
內部的伊斯蘭恐怖主義幽靈在澳洲內部引發了值得警惕的排外情緒。正如包括保守黨前總理弗萊舍（Malcolm Fraser）和工黨前總理基廷（Paul Keating）在內的許多澳洲領導人所警告的那樣，峇厘島爆炸事件加劇了澳洲內部的疑慮、隔閡以及狹隘的民族主義氣氛，嚴重削弱了自1970年代保守黨和工黨都一直推行的文化和種族多元化政策。
此後，澳洲通過了嚴厲的新安全法，重拳出擊拘留來自中東的非法移民，要求移民在獲得澳洲公民身份前必須通過“澳洲知識和價值觀”測試。而且有中東以及非洲背景的澳洲人還遭受了街頭暴力和種族主義騷擾。
所有這些都強化了有時在亞洲人中間仍很強烈的一種觀點，即澳洲仍盛行種族主義。陸克文政府面臨的一項艱巨任務就是，重新把澳洲塑造成為沒有種族歧視的“公正”國家。這反過來會加強澳洲在地區和國際論壇上的道德資本和“軟權力”。
在這方面，有一點亞洲人是不會注意不到。陸克文的女兒傑茜卡（Jessica）不久前嫁給了華裔澳洲人。週六在布里斯班（Brisbane）慶祝選舉勝利的活動中，這對夫婦與陸克文的其他家庭成員在臺上一起接受拍照。跨種族婚姻在澳洲（以及亞洲、歐洲和北美）雖然不是什麼新鮮事，不過這的確有助於促進陸克文宣佈的目標：進一步將澳洲發展成為開放、寬容和包容的國家。
本文作者Andrew Symon是駐新加坡記者和分析家，曾在澳洲國家議會的參議院工作，並作為部長演講撰稿人，自1992年起一直在東南亞工作。
譯者：晏陽
Labels: Asia, Australia, Kevin Rudd
香港優才計劃進退維谷
Vol.29, Thu, 05 Oct, 2006
新世纪周刊 記者/張雄 實習記者/熊巧
對許多內地人來說，擁有香港綠卡比較大的吸引力在於可以享有100多個國家免簽證。但是通過香港的優才計劃移民香港卻並不容易
“能夠成為這個計劃的第一人我很榮幸。今後我會把更多的時間留給香港。”
2006年11月27日，郎朗向香港入境事務處遞交了相關申請證明，這個渾身充滿表演氣質的鋼琴演奏家從此成為香港居民。
郎朗在香港入境處的那張招牌式的笑臉，第二天便出現在內地各大報紙上。很多人通過這條新聞才知道香港政府的“ 優秀人才入境計劃”(簡稱優才計劃)。
讓特區政府感到尷尬的是，擁有夢幻般開局的優才計劃並沒有如他們設想中那般順利。從2006年6月推出到今年 10月底，入境事務處只收到1071份申請，最終通過申請的，只有238名。這與特區政府當初“利用該計劃每年引進1 000人”的設想相差甚遠。
郎朗效應是一大敗筆 “這個優才計劃批准的第一個申請是郎朗，絕對是失敗的一筆。”在香港傳媒人呂丘露薇看來，這樣的安排會讓很多人覺得優才計劃的門檻太高。“其實如果是一個沒有名氣的人成為第一個，媒體同樣會有興趣的。”
優才計劃有兩種計分方式。一種是成就計分，為“具備超凡才能或技術並擁有傑出成就的個別人士”準備，申請人曾獲得傑出成就獎(例如奧運獎牌、諾貝爾獎、國家/國際獎項)；或申請人可以證明其工作得到同業肯定，或對其界別的發展有重大貢獻(例如獲業內頒發終生成就獎)。
郎朗的申請即屬於成就計分獲得批准，李雲迪和章子怡不久亦步其後塵成功入港。
成就計分之外，優才計劃還有適合普通人的綜合計分方式。通過對申請者年齡、學歷、工作經驗等五方面條件的考核，申請的人士，在預估其個人資歷已達到最低及格分數條件下，可提交申請。最新適用的最低及格分數為80分。
呂丘露薇認為，媒體對適用成就計分的明星申請者的追逐，給公眾塑造出一種印象，“當你考慮這個計劃的時候，你需要問問自己，是不是有足夠的名氣。”而很多普通人可能會符合綜合計分的資格，也會因此望而卻步。
優才計劃的前世今生 香港歷來是個移民流入地。來自世界各地，主要是中國大陸移民構成了香港人口的主體。但80年代中期，從中英談判定下香港要回歸中國開始近10年的時間裡，香港達到了向外移民的歷史最高峰，數以10萬計的香港居民移居海外。
1997年後，曾出現小規模的人才回流。“但回來的那些，基本是在海外境遇不是很好的人。”中山大學港澳珠江三角洲研究中心陳麗君教授告訴《新世紀週刊》，在回歸後的很長時間裡，香港一直面臨人才荒的問題。“一方面有人找不到工作，又有很多高職位找不到人。”
特區政府引進人才的計劃始於1999年。這年12月，面向全球的“輸入優秀人才計劃”出台，但執行情況並不樂觀，2003年該計劃取消。
兩年後，特區政府又推出“輸入內地專才計劃”。該計劃針對資訊科技和金融服務業所設，申請人必須具備這兩個行業的專業技能，並且獲得本地公司聘用與其學歷或工作經驗有關的職位，且申請成功者只能單身來港。
“在當時，大陸這樣的人才非常吃香，就業非常好，工資也很高，為什麼一定要一個人去香港呢？”陳麗君說。
在經歷前兩次不太成功的計劃後，香港政府在2003年推出了“輸入內地人才計劃”。對於專業和名額，計劃未作限制。但該計劃嚴格按工作崗位引進人才，只要香港僱主在本地找不到能為其提供專業知識和技能的員工，即可由僱主向入境處提出申請從內地引進人才。被香港老闆招過去的內地人才，還可以將配偶和未成年子女帶到香港定居。
這一次，靈活而人性化的計劃終於取得成效。到今年8月底，順利通過該計劃申請的共有17856人。引進的人才，則主要集中在學術研究和教育行業，佔了58%；商貿和金融服務人才各佔10%和7%。
“計劃每年獲批准人數都在遞增，基本上只要提交申請大都可以過。每引入這樣一個人才，就可以給香港社會創造2 .9個就業機會，因為會帶動相關產業的發展。”陳麗君說，這是個很成功的人才引進計劃。
“嚴格按照工作崗位引進人才計劃有局限性，那就是缺乏靈活性。”香港入境事務處助理處長陳詠梅這樣解釋出台“ 優才計劃”的原因：“有些內地優異人才未必希望在香港找一個固定的工作，很多還可能開公司創業，為此去年我們推出了全新的『優才計劃』，讓內地人才先來港熟悉情況，再決定找什麼工作或者創業，緩衝期可以有一年之久。”
香港特區駐京辦事處主任曹萬泰也向《新世紀週刊》表示，優才計劃是一個吸引高層次人才的長期性計劃，實施之初必然有一定的探索階段。“另外，別忘了，輸入優秀人才計劃只針對內地，而優才計劃是適用於全世界的。”
香港給人才的餡餅不夠大 “在內地移民市場上，把香港作為首選目的地的人並不太多。”凱勝移民留學集團移民顧問莊凱芳認為，由於地寡人眾和低稅收造成的相對低福利，香港的移民政策在國際市場上顯得“不太有吸引力”。
莊凱芳將優才計劃的目標人群定義為：高學歷、工作經驗豐富的青壯年(25～35歲)。“顯然這些人在哪裡都會活得很好。”
曾有不少客戶向莊凱芳咨詢移民香港及優才計劃的情況，在瞭解到該計劃的細則後，絕大多數人選擇了放棄。
“能達到80分及格線的人有不少，但關於一年內必須要找到與其專業相關工作的規定，還是讓他們感到有點沒底，後顧之憂太多。”莊凱芳說，相比之下，加拿大等國的技術移民政策，並無如此“苛刻”的規定條款。“你一個博士生去了那兒給人刷碗，也沒問題，只要你能活得下來。
莊凱芳說，在公司代理的移民業務中，美國加拿大的移民覆蓋面很廣，“隨便一撒網，一百個人申請，可能有二三十個合格。香港這個我跟你說清楚之後，你還會想要去嗎？”
莊凱芳認為，優才計劃對申請者比較大的吸引，應該是享有100多個國家免簽證的香港綠卡。但獲得綠卡的前提是：必須在香港連續居住7年，方可提出永久居住權的申請。
“實際上這個很簡單，”莊凱芳說，“只要你找到一份香港的工作，僱主會讓你通過工作簽證，比如多次往返的方式拿到身份證。在香港連續工作7年，也可以同樣申請永久居住權。鳳凰衛視裡的很多元老們，都是這樣拿到綠卡的。有僱主就行，不一定要通過優才計劃。”
對於優才計劃出師不利的原因，莊凱芳認為問題並不出在宣傳上。“投資移民獲得很多收益，民眾就是口碑，一個人申請成功以後會帶動他身邊的很多人。雪球會越滾越大，根本不用廣告。如果優才計劃真的做得很好，很對申請人胃口的話，現在也應該很火了吧。”
新世纪周刊Labels: Hong Kong
Currency blocs fall into place
By Andrew Wood in Hong Kong
Published: 22/11/2007Asian central banks appear to be adopting similar monetary policies in a way that suggests they could be preparing for an eventual currency union for the region, according to Deutsche Bank.
Twelve Asia-Pacific currencies - including the yen, the Korean won, the Indian rupee and the Australian dollar - have increasingly traded as a bloc since 2005, the bank's research has found.
There is an increase in the correlation between the value of Asian currencies as central banks try to keep their export-led economies competitive internationally and also reduce foreign exchange volatility within the region.
This trend is a result of the wider use of trade-weighted currency baskets in India, China, Singapore and Malaysia, the bank says, adding that the patterns show similarities to movements in some European Union currencies in the years before the euro was created in 1999.
"Asia is beginning to look a lot like Europe in the 1980s and the start of the 1990s," said Martin Hohensee, Asian head of fixed income and credit research, who led the analysis.
"Policymakers and politicians are talking seriously about the possibility of Asian currency union, even if there isn't a single currency," he told the Financial Times in an interview.
Asia has a thickening network of free-trade agreements, creating conditions similar to Europe's single market that paved the way for the euro. "Intraregional trade within Asia accounts for a similar share of total trade as was the case in Europe in 1992," he said. The Asian Development bank has outlined plans for a possible Asian Currency Unit, similar to the European Currency Unit that preceded the euro.
But Mr Hohensee said that, unlike in Europe, there is much less political will for integration. Nevertheless, this week leaders of the 10 members of the Association of South-east Asian Nations agreed to remove trade barriers by 2015 to create a European Union-style economic community.
"What seems to be happening in Asia is an economic process that might become a political one," Mr Hohensee said.
He did not think Asian central banks were deliberately colluding in setting monetary policy, but that informal co-operation would grow naturally. "I think every time central banks get together and talk they realise that volatility is in no one's interest," he said.
Deutsche Bank says the trend offers investors the chance to use similar strategies to those popular in the run-up to the euro, by betting that interest rates for high-yielding currencies will converge to the regional average. "This informal kind of monetary union by stealth is throwing up good investment opportunities," Mr Hohensee said.
The bank is launching two Asian Convergence indices to track the trend. One is based on the nine non-Japanese regional currencies most likely to take part in any Asian currency union, and another broader index which includes the yen and the Australian dollar, as both countries are likely to be affected by any Asian regional currency policy.
Patterns begin to emerge
The chart shows the correlation between individual Asian currencies against the dollar and a basket of those currencies from 2000.
Of the 10 currencies measured by Deutsche Bank, eight have shown increased correlations since 2005 than the previous five years. Five have shown correlations of greater than 90 per cent since 2005: the Chinese renminbi, the Malaysian ringgit, the Philippine peso, the Singapore dollar (which has jumped from 10 per cent since 2005) and the Thai baht. The yen and the Taiwan dollar's correlation to other currencies have turned negative since 2005, however.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
亚洲在酝酿“亚元”?
作者：英国《金融时报》安德鲁•伍德(Andrew Wood)香港报道
2007年11月23日 星期五
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)表示，亚洲各国央行似乎正在采用类似的货币政策，这一情况表明，它们可能正在为最终建立一个亚洲地区货币联盟进行准备。
德意志银行研究发现，自2005年以来，亚太地区12种货币（包括日元、韩元、印度卢比和澳元）已日益形成一个集团。
随着亚洲各国央行努力保持其出口驱动型经济的国际竞争力，并努力减小该地区内部的汇率波动性，因此，各国货币价值之间的关联有所上升。
德意志银行表示，这一趋势是贸易加权一篮子货币在印度、中国、新加坡和马来西亚得到更广泛使用的结果。该行补充称，在1999年欧元诞生之前，欧盟一些货币的发展变化与这一模式有类似之处。
负责此次研究的德意志银行固定收益及信贷研究部门亚洲主管马丁•霍恩泽(Martin Hohensee)表示：“亚洲正开始看起来与上世纪80年代、90年代初的欧洲很相似。”
他在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示：“尽管亚洲可能不会有单一货币，但决策者和政治家们正在认真探讨亚洲货币联盟的可能性。”
亚洲拥有一个日益密集的自由贸易协议网络，创造的市场环境类似于当初为欧元面世铺平道路的欧洲单一市场。他表示：“亚洲地区内部贸易占整体贸易的份额，与 1992年欧洲的情况颇为相似。”亚洲开发银行(ADB)已经为可能面世的亚洲货币单位(Asian Currency Unit)制定了计划。这与欧元推出前的欧洲货币单位(European Currency Unit)非常相似。
但霍恩泽表示，与欧洲不同，亚洲在货币一体化方面的政治意愿不太强。不过，东盟(ASEAN) 10国的领导人本周已达成共识，在2015年前消除贸易壁垒，以创建一个类似欧盟那样的经济共同体。
霍恩泽称：“亚洲目前正在进行的是一个经济进程，而这个经济进程可能成为政治进程。”
他认为，亚洲各国央行不会刻意协商制定货币政策，但这种非正式合作可能会自然发展。他表示：“我认为，每次各国央行聚在一起讨论时，他们会意识到，（汇率）波动不符合任何一方的利益。”
德意志银行表示，这一趋势提供给投资者一个机会，让他们可以采用与欧元面世前那些流行策略相似的策略，即押注于各种高收益货币的利率将向地区平均水平趋同。霍恩泽表示：“这种非正式的秘密货币联盟正带来很好的投资机会。”
该行正推出两项亚洲趋同指数(Asian Convergence indices)，以跟踪这一趋势。其中一项指数基于日元之外的9种最可能加入亚洲货币联盟的亚洲地区货币，而另一项涵盖更广的指数则纳入了日元和澳元，因为这两个国家可能会受到亚洲地区货币政策的影响。
译者/刘彦
Hong Kong's peg delivers disparity
Most years my Hong Kong sales colleagues take a long weekend at an offsite to build their strategy for the coming 12 months. On the past few occasions they have made the hour-long flight to China's tropical paradise, otherwise known as Hainan Island. In years gone by it was infamous for smuggling contraband, but has since been transformed into China's spa capital made famous through hosting the Miss World beauty pageant.
Loaded with wads of Hong Kong dollars, my colleagues landed to discover that, in contrast to previous visits, their once prized dollar was no longer the currency of choice. In fact restaurateurs and shopkeepers alike refused to take the pegged and internationally traded currency in preference to their own strengthening renminbi. How times have changed.
The Hong Kong dollar has followed the decline of the US dollar as a result of the currency peg that has been in place since 1983. In recent months international funds have flowed into Hong Kong's financial system both to participate in IPOs and also to buy up mainland companies already listed in Hong Kong.
Investors have continued to speculate on the expected valuation convergence between the shares of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong and their counterparts listed in China. As a result of these inflows, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has acted to sell the Hong Kong dollar to maintain the exchange rate within its stated range. The most recently reported amount of selling was for HK$7.8bn (US$1bn, €680m, £488m) at the end of October. Comparisons have been made to 1998 when the then financial secretary and now chief executive of Hong Kong, Donald Tsang, spent $15bn to protect the peg and drive away speculators betting on a devaluation. However circumstances are radically different now and the HKMA is in a strong position to maintain stability.
Dollar weakness and significant international fund flows have been coincident with speculation of a possible stock through train that will allow mainland investors direct access to Hong Kong-listed companies. Much of the Hong Kong stock market's spectacular performance from the early days of August has been due to this speculation with the market rising by over 50 per cent at its peak since then.
However it is not just speculation and possible valuation convergence that is driving asset prices in Hong Kong. The discipline of the peg effectively cedes monetary policy to the US Federal Reserve. As such, local banks have little choice but to slavishly follow US interest rate movements. At times in the past this has imposed either a too austere or too liberal policy on the Hong Kong economy since it is not always perfectly synchronised with the US economy.
In the current cycle, the Hong Kong economy is more influenced by developments on the mainland where the economy is growing at a rapid 11 per cent this year at a time when the US economy is slowing. With inflation beginning to pick up, savers are likely to face the prospect of negative real interest rates again. Compounded by the weaker currency, this means that local assets are looking cheaper from an international perspective, and local savers are likely to be motivated to move their money out of deposit accounts. Typically in the past similar circumstances have been the cause of major stock market revaluation and rampant speculation in the property markets. Both are now on the verge of repeating historical patterns.
Recent investor doubts caused by the losses in the US financial sector and fears of a US slowdown have cautioned some investors, although the staggering interest in the November launch of China's e-commerce portal, Alibaba, indicates that the appetite to invest and speculate remains strong. This IPO raised $1.5bn on its Hong Kong debut and delivered an opening day profit of nearly 200 per cent. Chinese companies have raised $20bn on the Hong Kong stock exchange this year.
It seems as we approach the final stages of this year, global economic issues, uncertainty about the timing of the through train, and falls in China's A share market have combined to impede the progress of the Hong Kong market.
However with real economic growth at 11 per cent on the mainland and inflation at over 6 per cent, mainland companies should deliver a comfortable average 25 per cent earnings growth over the next 12 months, with many doing better. Convergence between the valuation of Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies and those listed in China will continue at a time when external factors, namely the weaker dollar and rising inflation, will provide another reason for asset prices to inflate further.
Whilst my sales colleagues have suffered a loss of face realising that their currency is no longer dominant in southern China, they have, no doubt, more than hedged their position through investment in the local property and stock markets.
Mark Konyn is the chief executive of RCM Asia Pacific
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Labels: Hong Kong
港元不好使了
作者：康礼贤(Mark Konyn)为英国《金融时报》撰稿
2007年11月23日 星期五
多年来，我在香港销售部门的同事都会利用长周末前往别处，制定他们未来12个月的战略。曾经有几次，他们乘坐1小时飞机到中国的热带天堂——海南岛。前些年，海南曾因走私交易声名狼藉，但后来转而成为中国的温泉疗养胜地，并因举办世界小姐(Miss World)选美大赛而闻名于世。
我的同事们带着大把的港元，但着陆后才发现，与以往不同，他们这些曾倍受珍视的港元已不再是人们青睐的货币。实际上，餐厅老板和商店店主这些人拒绝接受这种实行钉住制的国际交易货币，而是青睐他们自己坚挺的人民币。时代变得真快。
由于自1983年开始实行钉住汇率制，港元追随了美元的跌势。最近数月，全球资金纷纷涌入香港金融体系，既是为了参与首次公开发行(IPO)，也是为了买进在港上市的内地公司股票。
投资者持续投机于在港上市的内地公司股票（H股）及其在内地上市的A股之间预期将出现的估值趋同。由于这些内流资金，香港金融管理局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)已采取行动，卖出港元以便将汇率保持在规定区间之内。最近报道的卖出港元行动，是10月底的78亿港元（合10亿美元）。外界将目前的情况与1998年进行了比较，当时的财政司司长、现任香港特首曾荫权(Donald Tsang)投入150亿美元以维护钉住汇率机制，并驱离押注于港元贬值的投机者。然而，如今的情形与当年有着根本的不同，在维持（汇率）稳定性方面，目前金管局处于强有力的地位。
美元走软和国际资金的重大流动，时逢市场存在可能实施“港股直通车”的猜测之际，“港股直通车”将允许内地投资者直接投资于在港上市的公司。自8月初以来，香港股市最高升逾50%，这种惊人表现，在很大程度上要归因于这种猜测。
然而，目前推高香港资产价格的并不只是这种猜测，以及可能出现的（两地）估值趋同。钉住汇率制实际上是将货币政策交给了美联储(Fed)。如此一来，当地银行没有什么选择，只能亦步亦趋地追随美国的利率走向。由于香港经济并不总能与美国经济完美同步，因此过去有些时候，要么政策对香港经济来说过于严峻，要么过于宽松。
在当前周期中，香港经济在更大程度上受到了中国内地发展的影响。今年，在美国经济放缓之际，中国内地经济却以11%的幅度迅速增长。随着通货膨胀开始抬头，储户可能将再次面临实际利率为负的前景。与（香港当地）汇率走弱联系在一起，这意味着从国际角度看，当地资产更为便宜，而当地储户可能会有将自己的资金挪出储蓄账户的冲动。以往，类似的情况通常成为股市大幅重新估值和房地产市场投机活动猖獗的原因。目前，这两个方面，历史都即将重演。
近来，美国金融领域的损失和对美国经济放缓的担忧，造成了投资者的疑虑，已给一些投资者敲响了警钟。不过，（投资者）对于中国电子商务门户网站阿里巴巴(Alibaba) 11月（在港）上市的惊人兴趣表明，投资及投机的兴趣依然强劲。阿里巴巴此次IPO在港融资15亿美元，首日交易中涨幅近200%。中国公司今年已在香港交易所筹集了200亿美元的资金。
似乎随着今年年底的临近，全球经济问题、“港股直通车”时机上的不确定性以及中国A股市场的下跌等因素交织在一起，阻碍着香港股市的前行。
然而，在目前中国内地实际经济增幅高达11%，通胀率超过6%的情况下，未来12个月中，内地公司应能够轻松实现25%的平均业绩增幅，许多则会做得更好。在外部因素（即美元不断走软及通胀日益飙升）会为资产价格进一步上涨提供额外的理由时，在港上市的H股与内地A股之间价差将进一步收窄。
当我那些销售部门的同事丢了面子，意识到自己手中的货币在中国南部地区不再占优势时，毫无疑问，他们通过投资当地房地产市场和股市，来对冲自己的风险。
康礼贤是RCM Asia Pacific行政总裁。
译者/何黎
西方人眼中的三亚
英国《金融时报》中文网实习生姜蓓蓓
2007年11月23日 星期五
英国旅游公司Airtours将三亚列在了今年夏天的广告宣传册里，一群穿着足球衫的英国游客很快出现在三亚的海滩上。住在北京、上海或是香港的中国人选择在假期离开当地，去寻找一个还没有过度开发、景色独特的度假地。而在国外这样的度假地越来越少，于是他们把目光投向了中国。
中国沙滩度假新去处海南，5年前或许还是一个不错的目的地，它位于中国大陆南边，和爱尔兰形状相仿，面积13，500平方公里。但现在它已进入了大众视线，尤其是南部三亚度假区优质洁白的沙滩，使它成了新兴旅游度假地。其实它在中国中产和韩国度假者心中已经成了大热门。俄罗斯人是最早开始光顾海南的欧洲游客，后来凡是貌似欧洲人的游客都会听到当地人用俄语对他们说“Thank you”。更坏的消息是，继英国旅游公司之后，欧洲其他旅游机构也相继开出了到海南岛的包机。北京政府也正积极开发海南。去年，北京决定在海南北部某村庄上建一座高尔夫度假村，于是约70，000工人涌入当地，不到一年就完成了这个项目。
所以如果你想在海南看到独特的景致，就要在它变成另一个普吉岛之前抓紧时间去。当然，要尽量避开法定节假日，因为中国度假者已经有了“沙滩假日”的观念，成百万的游客会把岛上弄得拥挤不堪。之前中国只有北戴河一个官方的海滨度假村，它主要面向国家领导人和政府官员。而海南是中国人正在开发的一个属于自己的沙滩假日品牌。
别样的中国沙滩文化海南就好比中国的夏威夷，尤其是三亚。中国游客在沙滩上穿着大同小异的夏威夷 T恤和短裤，在短暂的假期中创造出一种浓厚的夏威夷氛围。观赏十几个人炫耀似地穿着相同的夏威夷风情服装也成了三亚海滩一景。中国人在自己国家的巨变中也变得超乎想象。在三亚的海滩上你会发现沙滩装从金属太空服到中世纪的盔甲无所不有。“看人”，令外国游客兴奋不已，是他们海南之旅的乐趣之一。三亚正变成他们在中国度周末的首选。
三亚周边住宿条件也相当不错，三星级及以上的酒店超过40家。更注重隐私的人还可以选择新开的三亚凯宾斯基饭店（Kempinski），它内部拥有长达2.5千米的私人沙滩；东方文华（Mandarin Oriental）集团也将开发一处僻静的沙滩修养所。同时，亚龙湾国家旅游度假区距离三亚市区只有20分钟的车程，比市区安静多了。金棕榈酒店精心选择了背山临海的位置，不仅可以欣赏典型的热带风光，还会看到身穿夏威夷服装、头戴牛仔帽的饮酒者，以及停泊的海上不远处的中国特有的平底帆船。
一些在外国游客眼里更为典型的景致很容易被忽略。比如亚龙湾某咖啡厅上方的巨大标牌用金色大字宣称——亚龙湾是“世界最美”的；沙滩上穿着工作服的女士拿着大扫把不停地清扫已经很干净的沙滩；退休工人用略带不满和吃惊的眼神盯着惯于沙滩假日的公子哥和他们穿着比基尼的女友。总之，中国文化使沙滩生活显得不那么轻松随意，尤其是对西方人的半裸装束。人们对沙滩和大海也总是抱着些许怀疑和谨慎的态度。
沙滩管理也非常严格，保安人员不允许衣冠不整者进入餐饮区域，规定细则里注明了夏威夷牛仔装是被允许的，但不包括泳装。所以你想吃一客冰淇淋时，最好先穿好T恤和短裤。
但是各种沙滩活动价格便宜且看上去质量也让人放心，包括四驱车、高崖跳伞和潜水。当然，海滩上没有犯罪，也没有买卖引起的口角，整个气氛令人愉快。
令人尖叫的夜生活和海鲜盛宴三亚的夜生活充满尖叫，但一定要走出去寻找。你可以周五晚刚飞抵海南时在酒店用一顿英式风情的煎羊排晚餐，然后休息一夜，周六叫一辆出租车到市区去用餐。三亚市河西路北端有一处叫168的吃海鲜好去处。这里提供中式海鲜服务——自选海鲜、当面宰杀和现场烹制。这样一顿海鲜盛宴可能只要1英镑。饱餐后就可以到街上的娱乐场所去了——现场表演、露天游乐场、夜店以及卖奇怪食物的小摊。露天夜总会的表演场比欧洲更欧洲，服务生为来宾提供温热的木薯粉咖啡和两个小木块，用来在每个节目后敲击欢呼。
经过了喧闹的夜生活，到岛上的村庄去吃顿午餐顺便休息下是不错的选择。但有一件事最好别尝试：请出租车司机推荐餐馆。一位英国游客形象地描述了他的经历（尽管他还与一位有着上海姑娘砍价功夫的中国朋友同行）：我们在一家路边的餐馆被狠狠地宰了一顿——三个人花费了50英镑。其中的罪魁祸首是一个超大个的海星，我们被说服花32英镑点了它。极少有人吃这种东西，走过我们桌边的村民都吃惊地睁大了眼。店主强调说这可比那些2英镑一只的龙虾金贵，但那粉红色的海星汤可真是做工精巧、色泽明亮——海星肉就像泡在粘糊糊的精液般的酱汁里的橡皮条，让我们整整三个月一想起来就恶心。
像之前说的，三亚还是个新兴旅游地，所以那里的午餐可能有时会有点出人意料。但在中国这样的新兴海滩度假区你还是可以随时发现许多乐趣的，而且目前还不算拥挤，海水看上去也还未被污染。同时你还能在这里住上五星级的酒店，包括喜来登（Sheraton）、皇冠假日（Crowne Plaza）、万豪国际（Marriott）和希尔顿（Hilton）。这里还有很好的高尔夫设施和很棒的美食，不过你最好远离那些专为游客准备的“特价”的奇异海产品（比如什么大海星）。
但岛上会偶有疟疾发生，这是不可避免的。有时在酒店里要一块涂在烤面包上的黄油或要求调一下房间里空调的温度也会有些麻烦。最好别太介意这些。不过，你真正介意的可能会是在你的三亚周末结束后，你又要回到上海、香港或是北京去工作了。
（本文参考了FT旗下奢侈品杂志《如何消费》(How To Spend It)2007年9月号＂Aloha, Hainan＂一文。）
Indians are Bali's new Americans
There's a large group of Indian couples waiting in the first-class lounge of the Ngurah Rai airport at Denpasar on the island of Bali in Indonesia. The men are casually dressed but smart: slacks, sport-shirts that bulge over the waist and expensive un-scuffed trainers. The wives are immaculately groomed, tossing waves of exquisitely streaked and tousled hair from left to right. They laugh and joke in a mixture of Hindi and English, shouting at the same time into their mobile phones as they talk among themselves.
"Where's the boy?" One swears in Hindi. "I asked for chai. He's forgotten the hot milk."
"Hot milk, please," the man barks before continuing to his friends, "It's the training. Our people used to be just the same until we trained them properly." The Balinese serving staff merely lower their heads and go about their work. The visitors are much larger and noisier than their diminutive, sarong-clad hosts.
Watching the group surreptitiously, I couldn't help but think that their confidence - both cultural and economic- reminded me of another nationality, Americans. Before the invasion of Iraq, some Americans used to stride the globe with a similar attitude even if many travelled with a deep curiosity about the countries they were visiting. As one of my Indian friends explained in her languid, fluent English of this increasingly ubiquitous traveller across south-east Asia, "Darling, we're here now and we're here to stay - it's our very special 'two fingers' to the world."
Similarly, I remember a group of wealthy Indian artists who stayed in a lavish villa above the town of Ubud in central Bali, overlooking a spectacular gorge. Reluctant to stray from their villa and accompanied by their own chef (who'd been specially flown in from Delhi with his supplies of besan , or flour), they spent most mornings not at the temples but devising their menus - kadi and pakoras - before turning to their canvases.
Fifty years ago, long before India was awash in IPOs, outsourcing and cable TV, Jawaharlal Nehru, the first prime minister of independent India, was deep in the fraternal embrace of Sukarno, Indonesia's first president, who like Nehru had liberated his country from colonial rule. Nehru memorably described Bali as "the morning of the world". In those days, we were all brothers (and sisters) in poverty. Times have changed.
Still, it's hard to disagree with the Indian prime minister's poetic words - the island's dawn is extraordinarily beautiful. I will always delight in the first streaks of sunlight slicing through the mist across the lawn in front of my house. There's a gentle bustle of activity as Ubud - where I live - comes to life: staff shaking off the sleepiness from the night before as they set to work preparing the morning's temple offerings, the chickens beginning their day-long scramble for food, the dogs stretching, yawning and then flopping down in the direct sunlight, and the gardeners sweeping up the leaves and fallen frangipani flowers.
But Ubud, the princely and artistic enclave high above the traffic jams and honky-tonk of the towns of Kuta and Seminyak and the vast bed-factories of the Nusa Dua peninsula, is an anomaly even within Bali. With its rich volcanic soil, fast- running streams, rice-terraces folded into the landscape and temples and shrines, Ubud remains relatively unchanged, despite the encroachment of yoga centres, spas, villas and luxury hotels. For Ubud has managed its entanglements with modernity better than others, the town's cultural practices fiercely defended in the face of a constant stream of visitors.
Or so it seems, because in the years since the first Bali bomb blast in 2002, the island has experienced a deep economic slump as potential visitors fearful for their security deserted its beaches and temples. During those years, as the Americans, Europeans and Australians retreated to the Caribbean, the Mediterranean and Queensland respectively, other tourists - predominantly Asian - began to make up the shortfall, bringing their own particular demands.
Admittedly visitors from India are still only a small fraction of the island's tourists, trailing the Japanese and Koreans by a long way, but they bring with them a sense of dynamism and raw energy that stands in marked contrast to the self-effacement of the North Asians.
Certainly, Indians can be demanding guests. Yet on Bali, a Hindu island adrift in the world's most populous Muslim nation, the spirit of place exerts itself on the subcontinental sojourners. The warmth of the welcome extended by the Balinese to fellow Hindus despite the many differences in religious practice make the island a very special place for visitors from India.
For Indians going overseas for the first time, Singapore and Dubai with their endless shopping and dining are more attractive destinations. For some Indian tourists the exposure to Bali's village life is too close to home to be enjoyed as a holiday.
But it's reassuring to see even the most hard-nosed of Indian investment bankers and other businessmen donning the ritual sarongs and outfits of the Balinese to follow them in their prayers and ceremonies with palpable excitement.
Indians may well be the "new Americans" but in Bali among fellow Hindus their softer side emerges amid the surprising capacity of the island to adapt to changing forces of global culture, faith and economics.
Karim Raslan is a writer and consultant, who divides his time between Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta and Ubud and is the author of 'Ceritalah: Malaysia in Transition'
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
巴厘岛上骄傲的印度游客
作者：英国《金融时报》撰稿人 卡里姆•拉斯兰(Karim Raslan)
2007年11月23日 星期五
在印尼巴厘岛首府登巴萨的Ngurah Rai国际机场的头等舱休息室里，很多印度夫妇在候机。丈夫们一身休闲打扮，但相当时髦：宽松裤、从腰部以上变宽的运动衫以及昂贵的崭新运动鞋。妻子们修饰的几乎完美，甩动着精心挑染微乱的头发。他们用印地语和英语笑着开玩笑，在互相交谈的同时还大声讲着电话。
骄傲的印度游客“那个孩子在哪？”一人用印地语骂着，“我在找chai。他忘记了热牛奶。”
“热牛奶，请，”这位男士向他的朋友们大声喊着，然后继续讲道，“原因在于培训。如果我们正确培训他们，我们的人也会变成这样。”巴厘岛的服务员只是低下头，埋头工作。与身材较小、穿着围裙的主人相比，这些客人身材更大，也更吵。
偷偷观察了这一切后，我不禁想起，他们的信心——文化上和经济上的信心——让我想起了另一个国家的人：美国人。在入侵伊拉克之前，一些美国人也曾抱着类似的态度在全球各地甩开步伐，尽管其中许多美国人对他们访问的国家怀着强烈的好奇心。当我的一位印度朋友用她那无力但流利的英语解释东南亚地区日益无处不在的旅游者时，“亲爱的，我们到了，我们将在这里住下来。这是我们向世界伸出的两个非常特殊的手指。”
类似的，我记起了住在巴厘岛中部乌布镇豪华别墅里的一些富有的印度艺术家，从这座别墅可以俯瞰壮丽的峡谷。由于不愿从他们的别墅迷路，在他们自己的厨师的陪伴下（他特别从德里带来了面粉），他们大半个上午不是在寺庙里度过的，而是在研究他们的菜谱——咖喱和炸蔬菜——然后才走进他们的大帐篷。
巴厘岛的独特景致50 年前，在印度首次公开发行（IPO）、外包和有线电视大量出现很久以前，独立后的首位印度总理贾瓦哈拉尔•尼赫鲁（Jawaharlal Nehru）给了印尼首位总统苏加诺（Sukarno）一个深深的拥抱，与尼赫鲁一样，苏加诺把印尼从殖民地统治中解放了出来。尼赫鲁形容巴厘岛是“世界的早晨”。在那个年代，我们都是贫穷的兄弟（姐妹）。时代变了。
然而，很难否认这位印度总理那诗一样的语言，巴厘岛的黎明格外美丽。当早晨第一缕阳光透过薄雾照亮我房前的草坪，我总是会欢欣鼓舞。在乌布——我住的地方——现出生机时，万事万物都略微忙碌了起来：员工摆脱了昨晚的困倦、准备早晨寺院的祭品，小鸟开始了长达一天的觅食之旅，狗狗们伸了伸懒腰，打着哈欠，坐在地上沐浴着阳光，园丁们正在收拾树叶以及落下的鸡蛋花。
然而，即使在巴厘岛，乌布仍显得相当特别。这里远离库塔和水明漾的交通堵塞和下等酒馆以及努沙杜瓦半岛大量床厂。这里高贵而优雅。这里肥沃的火山土，湍急的河流和水稻梯田与风景、寺院和祠堂融为一体。尽管瑜伽中心、水疗馆、别墅和豪华酒店纷纷入驻，但相对而言，乌布仍没有什么变化。相对于其它地区，乌布更为成功的与现代性进行了融合，因此面对源源不断的游客，这里的文化传统得到了有力保护。
印度游客认可巴厘岛看上去大约如此，因为在2002年巴厘岛首次发生爆炸案后的几年里，巴厘岛的经济大幅下滑，担心自身安全的潜在游客放弃了这里的海滩和寺院。在那段日子里，由于美国人、欧洲人和澳大利亚人分别退到了加勒比地区、地中海和昆士兰，其他游客——主要是亚洲游客——开始弥补巴厘岛游客的不足，并带来了他们自己的独特需求。
不可否认，印度游客仅占巴厘岛游客的一小部分，大大落后于日本人和韩国人，但他们为这里带来了活力，这与北亚国家的谦逊形成了鲜明对比。
当然，印度游客可能要求苛刻。然而在巴厘岛这个在全球穆斯林人口最多的国家漂泊的印度岛屿，这里的气质影响着印度游客。尽管宗教传统存在很多不同，但巴厘岛人向印度人传达出的热情让巴厘岛成为对印度游客来说非常特殊的地方。
对于第一次出国的印度人而言，购物和美食天堂新加坡和迪拜是最具吸引力的旅游目的地。对于一些印度游客而言，巴厘岛乡村生活与本国太接近了，因此不会将其视为度假胜地。
然而，看到最精明的印度投资银行家和其他商界人士穿上巴厘岛传统的围裙和装束，跟随当地人带着无比兴奋之情祈祷和参加仪式，这也是一件让人快乐的事。
印度人可能是“新美国人”，但在巴厘岛展现出适应全球文化、信仰和经济不断变化的令人惊讶的能力时，这些印度人在巴厘岛的印度同族面前流露出了他们较为柔软的一面。
卡里姆•拉斯兰是作家和咨询顾问，他的一生在吉隆坡、雅加达和乌布度过，是《Ceritalah: Malaysia in Transition》一书的作者。
译者/梁艳裳
薩科齊能，為甚麼溫家寶不能？
撰文 方德豪
2007/11/15, 週四, 亞洲時報
將於本月下旬訪華的法國總理薩科齊思想屬中間偏右，甚施政理念跟中國總理溫家寶大不相同。可兩人卻有一個共通點：為了社會改革，二人均面對利益集團的強力挑戰。
法國近年經濟增長乏力，外貿逆差也創下了歷史同期新高，許多分析歸究其中一個拖累法國經濟的因素是龐大的福利制度。為提高法國經濟的競爭力，薩科齊計劃強勢推動一項削減退休金的改革方案。據10月一項調查顯示，77%人支持改革有關退休福利政策，並認為這政策不公平。
可是，受到改革影響的利益集團，也不是輕言妥協的。法國運輸工會11月14日開始罷工，導致法國交通大混亂；學生、教師、公務員甚至地方行政官等受影響的集團，也隨時接力。
面對壓力，民望高企的薩科齊依然能夠擺出強硬姿態。他說，法國人民已經批准了這項改革計劃，因為在大選前他已經明確表示要推行這些改革措施，所以“一定要把改革進行到底”。據法國伊福普民調機構8月公佈的民調結果，5月至7月，薩科齊的支持率一直呈上升趨勢。7月時，薩科齊的支持率高達61%，僅遜於法國戰後最受歡迎的領袖戴高樂；即使近日出現罷工，他的支持度仍只是輕微下滑。
相對之下，溫家寶的處境，就顯得十分被動。即使溫家寶有“人民總理”的美譽，但因為國家體制問題，他始終無法把民望轉化成為支持和推動改革的動力。
相反，關鍵國計民生的許多重要商品包括原油、豬肉、電力等，無一不由具有壟斷式影響力的利益集團所操控。這些壟斷式的影響力的具體表現是市場門檻高，國家保護政策明顯；國內外都沒有其他人能動他們一根毛髮。而在這背景下，國家出現油荒、肉價上漲五成等，卻悉數要由溫家寶來負責處理爛攤子。
刻下，溫家寶正被各種問題弄得團團轉，說不好一些利益集團的人正沾沾自喜；殊不知，這些人正在自掘墳墓而不自知：價格的上漲，燃油的短缺，在在向中國民眾說明了民主的重要性。
說來說去，中國政府幾乎已出盡了最大力氣維持社會公平，像溫家寶所言，政府早已出台措施維持物價平穩；但中央領導愈是想撥亂返正，愈是突顯出分利集團的財雄勢大，桀驁不馴；沒有民選制度，中央政府始終底氣不足，對分利集團的制衡力度不足，社會公平和和諧社會也就難以維持。
現在中國經濟還在高速增長時期，分利雖有不公，但基層也不至一無所有，社會穩定還有可能勉強維持；但只要經濟放慢，社會分利不公的潛在危機就會隨時爆發。要保持社會穩定，中國政府推動改革是宜快不宜遲。
Labels: China, democracy
It hurts when an Indian bank loan goes bad
By Raja M,
Asia TimesNov 8, 2007
MUMBAI - "They ripped my shirt, shaved my moustache, cut my hair and gave electric shocks on my chest and even spat on my face." CLN Murthy, a scientist with the Hyderabad-based Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, described how debt recovery agents tortured him after he defaulted on a US$25,000 loan from ICICI, India's second-largest bank, with $79 billion in assets.
Such experiences are unfolding in India's tragic version of a looming subprime crisis. Multinational banks and their outsourced loan recovery agents are presently running for cover, following public outrage and dire warnings from law-enforcement agencies, consumer courts and the Reserve Bank of India.
In October, the country's apex Supreme Court scolded banks and financial agencies for hiring goons to recover loans, and declared that banks would be held responsible for the actions of their recovery agents.
Screaming news headlines in recent weeks have whipped up horror after a spate of suicides across the country following humiliating harassment from loan recovery agents of multinational banks, including physical assault, rape and sometimes even beating up folks who didn't take a loan, let alone default on it.
Fed up and goaded by angry consumer rights activists, the Delhi Consumer Commission slapped a $139,000 fine on ICICI bank on Monday after its outsourced recovery agents assaulted Delhi resident Vinod Kumar with iron rods. Kumar was a friend of a car loan taker named Tapan Bose, and happened to be standing near the $11,000 car outside a New Delhi club in January. Kumar had to be hospitalized after the assault.
Calling loan recovery agents "goons, boors, brutal louts and yahoos", the consumer commission's president, Justice J D Kapoor, fumed: "No civilized society governed by the rule of law can brook such kind of conduct." He tore into banks for the "audacity and impunity" with which they have gone about violently recovering loans.
In a conversation with Asia Times Online, Charudatta Deshpande, head of corporate communications, ICICI, surprisingly offered no unconditional regret about the bloody assault in Delhi, but instead accused debtor Bose of demanding $114,000 for an out-of-court settlement after the violent incident. He said the ICICI had terminated the services of the collection agency after the incident.
Deshpande blamed the media for "distorting the picture" and dismissed incidents of harassment inflicted on the bank's customers across the country as "aberrations", with the market-dominant bank "having to make 8 million loan recovery calls a month". So a few lives lost here and there are merely a banking industry version of the sickening "collateral damage" euphemism.
Deshpande even claimed he was unaware of the torture of Hyderabad scientist Murthy, a case reported prominently in the Mumbai newspaper Daily News and Analysis (DNA) on November 2. DNA said that Murthy came to an out-of-court settlement with ICICI.
"We follow a standard and robust process for appointing recovery agencies," Mythili Rao of ICICI informed Asia Times Online. "Their background is thoroughly checked."
This "robust process" cost the life of 38-year-old Prakash Sarvankar in Mumbai, who killed himself and blamed ICICI recovery agents in his suicide note. The bank paid $39,000 as compensation to the victim's family, packaged as fixed deposit and insurance covers.
Deven Bharti, joint commissioner (detection) of the Mumbai Police Crime branch, confirmed to Asia Times Online that it's only the middle-class small loan takers who are subjected to savage loan recovery methods from multinational banks, not big defaulters of million-dollar loans who hide behind the impersonal corporate face.
"We have warned banks to stay within the parameters of the law and the guidelines we have laid down for loan recovery," Bharti glowered, "or we will take action against them."
In September, the anti-extortion cell of the Mumbai Crime Branch arrested Umesh Shetty, the Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) bank manager (loans), in the Dadar branch and two recovery agents of the Sai Siddhi Credit Service in suburban Andheri, booked them on charges of extortion, outraging the modesty of a woman, and criminal intimidation. The trio were remanded in police custody for five days, the first instance of police booking a bank official along with its abusive recovery agents.
According to police in the south Indian city of Hyderabad, nine people, including a woman, have committed suicide in the state of Andhra Pradesh following harassment and humiliation by bank loan recovery agents.
A senior police official told local media that 32 cases of loan harassment have been booked in Hyderabad in 2007 and about 100 cases are pending with the economic offenses wing of the Criminal Investigation Department.
Creating their own subprime crisis, banks such as ICICI, HDFC and other finance agencies currently face an estimated loan exposure of about $11.4 billion, with loan amounts per borrower averaging $254.
"Flush with funds, these banks chase the people most in need of money - the poorer sections - and offer them loans at high interest rates," Kishori Udeshi, chairperson of the Mumbai-based governmental watchdog, Banking Codes and Standards Board of India, told Asia Times Online.
Udeshi, a former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India, with over 35 years of experience in central banking, called this loan baiting "predatory lending".
Other senior finance experts have also lashed out at banks for "irresponsible" lending, creating a situation in which people are harassed both after taking a loan and before it.
The harassment starts with unsolicited telemarketing. Phone calls offering loans have become as much of a nuisance as persistent spam offering to lengthen a certain critical part of the male anatomy.
On Sunday, the New Delhi-based Hindustan Times front-paged a report of harassment from banks offering loans, despite cellphone subscribers signing on to the new nationwide "Do Not Call" registry against unsolicited telemarketing.
Vir Sanghvi, former editor of the Hindustan Times and a popular columnist, threatened to publish mobile phone numbers of senior executives of offending banks and urged telemarketing victims among the 6 million Hindustan Times readers to blanket call bank executives with a vengeance.
Mumbai resident Ralph Pais found a more non-confrontational solution. He politely inquires from telemarketers if he has to repay the loans offered. To the surprised "yes, sir", he responds with, "Then I'm not interested." He says he is left alone after that.
Financially vulnerable families succumb to these loan offers and defaulting on an installment or two could bring their worst nightmares ringing the door bell.
A leading Indian business channel, CNBC-TV18, aired in September what it called "a shocking account of how terrorizing consumers into paying up their dues is a thriving business".
With a spy camera, a CNBC reporter went undercover in a loan recovery agency for an unnamed multinational bank. He found the owner casually starting an interview with a prospective recovery agent by probing his expertise in beating up people. The interview continued pleasantly along such lines with the owner telling the candidate, "I hope you have abused a lot of people."
Banks complain that their recovery agents sometimes also get beaten up when calling to collect dues and banking circles have closed ranks in the backlash of widespread bad publicity. They say "activism" against loan recovery will inspire willful defaulters and damage the bank lending system.
Bankers seem to collectively forget that at issue is not the obvious need to recover loans, but the criminal, insensitive, inhuman manner in which they have set about doing it.
Naina Lal Kidwai, group general manager and chief executive officer of HSBC, India, offered the view that if banks stopped lending to low income groups, then the clients would have to return to money lenders who charge usurious rates of interest.
Traditional Indian moneylenders have a reputation for ruthless exploitation, but as yet they have not been linked to a spate of suicides or using electric shocks, iron rods and abusing women to recover loans. Nor do traditional Indian money lenders harass the working public all day with unsolicited loan offers.
HSBC invited a questionnaire from Asia Times Online, but as of the time of writing it had not responded to a query asking if HSBC had a uniform loan recovery process, or whether it varied across income groups.
Labels: India
印度銀行暴力討債觸眾怒
撰文 Raja M, 亞洲時報
2007/11/09, 週五
孟買 --- 在海德拉巴市“印度化學技術研究所”工作的科學家默瑟（CLN Murthy），因拖欠了ICICI（印度第二大銀行）2.5萬美元，而被追債人員虐待。他描述他的經歷說：“他們撕爛我的襯衫，剃掉我的鬍子，剪去我的頭髮，然後電擊我的胸部，甚至向我的臉上吐口水。”
這樣的故事，在印度版的次貸危機中非常普遍。事實上，跨國銀行與負責催討欠款公司的追債手法，已經觸犯了眾怒。10月，印度最高法庭批評銀行與金融機構，僱用打手來追討債務，並宣佈銀行需為追債公司的行為負責。在遭到執法部門、消費者法庭和“印度儲備銀行”（Reserve Bank of India）的警告後，它們近日已變得低調起來。
近期，印度各地發生多起借貸人被追債人百般羞辱（如毆打與強姦）後飲恨自殺的事件。最近，報紙上的頭條消息更令人感到恐慌，因為連一位並無向銀行借貸的無辜人士，也遭到討債公司毒打。
這名無辜人士名叫庫馬爾（Vinod Kumar），他的朋友博斯（Tapan Bose）向銀行貸款買了一輛價值1.1萬美元的轎車。事發當日，剛從俱樂部出來的庫馬爾恰恰站在車旁，遇襲後因傷勢過重而被送往醫院。
在消費者權益組織的呼籲下，德里消費者委員會終於失去了耐心，11月5日向ICICI銀行作出了罰款13.9萬美元的裁決，理由是與其合作的討債公司人員，用鐵棍將庫馬爾打成重傷。
消費者委員會主席、法官喀普爾（J D Kapoor）將追債者稱作“暴徒”和“粗人”，還說：“任何文明的法治社會都不會容許如此行徑。”他又批評說，正由於銀行的“厚顏無恥”與“不受處罰”，討債公司才敢如此囂張。
然而，在接受《亞洲時報在線》採訪時，ICICI銀行的企業傳播部負責人戴施潘德（Charudatta Deshpande），並沒有對這一事件感到遺憾。相反，他指出博斯事後企圖向銀行索要11.4萬美元，以達成庭外和解。他說，ICICI已中止了與涉案的討債公司之間的合作關係。
戴施潘德指責媒體“扭曲事實”，稱這宗騷擾銀行客戶的事件，只不過是“一時糊塗”，並說該銀行“一個月要打800萬個討債電話”。
孟買的《每日新聞和分析》11月2日報道了上述科學家默瑟的經歷，並稱他已與ICICI達成了庭外和解。戴施潘德卻表示對此毫不知情。
ICICI銀行員工拉奧（Mythili Rao）對《亞洲時報在線》說：“在挑選追債公司時，我們遵循一套嚴格的標準與程序。我們還會仔細調查它們的背景。”
然而，正是這種“嚴格的標準與程序”，在孟買奪去了薩爾萬卡（Prakash Sarvankar）38歲的生命。他在遺書中說，是ICICI的追債人員讓他走投無路，被迫選擇自殺的。為息事寧人，這間銀行不得不以定期存款和保險單的形式，向受害者家庭賠償了3.9萬美元。
孟買警方犯罪科的專員巴爾迪（Deven Bharti）向筆者證實，遭遇跨國銀行暴力追債的，只是些中產階層的小額借貸者，而不是向銀行借了上百萬美元的企業經營者。巴爾迪說：“我們已向銀行提出警告，要求他們在法律與規章範圍內討債。不然，我們將對其採取行動。”
9 月，孟買警方逮捕了房屋開發融資公司（HDFC）在達達爾區的貸款部門經理史迪（Umesh Shetty），以及追債公司Sai Siddhi Credit Service的兩名工作人員，控告他們敲詐勒索、侮辱婦女和刑事恐嚇。三人被警局拘留了五日，成為首宗銀行官員與討債人員同時遭警方控告的案件。
根據海德拉巴警方，安得拉邦有9人在被討債公司滋擾和侮辱後自殺，其中一名為女性。一名高級警官對當地媒體表示，海德拉巴今年已發生32宗與貸款有關的騷擾案件，還有100宗等待罪案調查科經濟犯罪部門的處理。
在印度的次貸風波中，ICICI、HDFC等金融機構，約有114億美元的貸款預計難以收回，平均每個借貸者為254美元。
“印度銀行業規範與標準理事會”主席佑德施（Kishori Udeshi）他對筆者說：“鑒於資金充足，這些銀行開始爭奪那些亟需貸款的人群，特別是那些貧困階層，向他們提供高息貸款。”他並將此種貸款圈套稱作 “掠奪性借貸”。他曾在印度儲備銀行擔任副行長，並在央行工作過35年。
不少金融專家也批評說，正是銀行“不負責”的行為，令人們在借貸前後均受到滋擾。首先，是沒完沒了的電話推銷。這類電話，就像那些吹噓讓男人更有“雄風”的垃圾廣告一樣，讓人感到厭煩。
幾日前，新德里的《印度斯坦時報》刊登了一則頭條新聞，稱即使手機用戶已申請拒接陌生來電的服務，依然受到了銀行貸款部門的騷擾。
《印度斯坦時報》的前編輯、頗受歡迎的專欄作家桑維（Vir Sanghvi）威脅說，將公佈那家銀行所有高管的手機號碼，並呼籲電話推銷的受害者們屆時輪番撥打他們的電話，進行報復。
對付這類電話，孟買人帕斯（Ralph Pais）找到了一個獨到有效的辦法：他很有禮貌地問打來電話的推銷員，他是否需要償還貸款。得到對方詫異的回答—“當然”後，他說“那我就沒有興趣了”。他表示，從此再未受到這類騷擾。
如果接受了此類貸款，財政狀況不佳的家庭若拖欠上一兩次還貸，他們的噩夢很快就會來臨。
9 月，印度知名的商業頻道CNBC-TV18就“恐嚇消費者還貸如何變成一樁興旺生意”，播出了一個專題節目。一名喬裝的CNBC記者，攜帶著秘密攝像頭，走入了一家與跨國銀行有著合作關係的追債公司。記者發現，老闆在面試求職者時，只關心對方有無打架的專長。末了，老闆還對應聘者說：“我希望你以前‘修理 ’過不少人。”
由於討債導致形象大受影響，銀行方面抱怨說，他們的討債人員在收取到期賬目時屢遭毆打，並認為目前一致反對討債的輿論，將“鼓勵”更多人故意賴賬，從而損害銀行的借貸體系。
顯然，銀行界似乎想偷換話題，因為目前引起爭議的，不是應不應討債，而是它們毫無人性的討債方式。
匯豐銀行印度業務主管基德瓦伊（Naina Lal Kidwai）認為，如果銀行停止向低收入階層放貸，這類客戶可能將不得不去借高利貸。他說，雖然印度高利貸者是出了名的無情，但他們並未捲入用電擊、鐵棍等手段逼債，或造成借貸者自殺的事件；他們也不會頻頻打擾民電話推銷貸款。
對於筆者向匯豐銀行（印度）發送的部分問題，包括“匯豐銀行有無統一的討債程序，對各個收入階層是否一視同仁”等，至發稿前仍未收到它的回答。
（章彊編譯）
Labels: India
The wisdom of crowds
What is 'crowdsumption' and what effect is it having on the way we shop? Fiona Harkin reports
What happens when the much-vaunted democracy of the internet meets the much-derided elitism of the style set? A new consumer phenomenon, of course. Called "crowdsumption", it is e-commerce based on user recommendation and peer approval. Put another way, it's Facebook for fashion.
This new category of e-commerce, "social shopping", aims to combine two favourite online activities: shopping and social networking In China, a form of crowdsumption called "team-buying", or tuangou, has become a phenomenon, with groups of individuals banding together to barter with a seller and bring prices down. The concept has also gained a foothold in the US, with sites such as NetHaggler enabling individual buyers to group together and force lower prices from a wide range of retailers.
On ThisNext.com, one of a new breed of websites that seeks to connect independent-minded shoppers with hard-to-find products, you can sit back and watch its strangely hypnotic Activity Map, featuring a stream of successive speech bubbles popping up all over the world that offer realtime information on who's looking at what across the globe.
Right now, a visitor from Seoul could be looking at a vintage mink coat as recommended by an opinionated fashion blogger in Los Angeles, while three people add a Juicy Couture JetSet Charm bracelet to their "shopcasts" (a broadcast of their favourite items claiming kinship with a podcast).
The Japanese website Fashion- Walker is an innovative e-commerce/ publishing hybrid marrying a series of high-quality online magazines with easily accessible shopping portals and a series of real-time catwalk shows from which users can instantly buy an outfit. It's not a niche site - monthly sales have hit ¥400m (€2.6m), according to retail research group Japan Consuming - and its sister site, StyleWalker, is riding this success, offering a social networking and shopping service with an avatar facility that allows users to dress a customised digital doll. As for social shopping site Kaboodle.com, it was recently acquired for $30m by the interactive media arm of Hearst, publisher of glossy magazines such as Harper's Bazaar.
"People buy on a discovery basis," says Gordon Gould, cofounder of LA-based ThisNext.
"Most of the time they don't know what they're going to buy when they start looking. Social shopping gives power back to the consumers by recognising that everyone can be a connoisseur and giving them a platform for contribution and discovery." It's the birth of a new "referral economy", according to Dawn Bebe, managing director of Osoyou.com, a UK social shopping site for women. Bebe calls Osoyou a "beautiful, upscale" platform similar to printed magazines such as Grazia and Elle.
Osoyou doesn't sell products, but its unique selling point is that users can create a shopping profile and bookmark their favourite items into a digital wardrobe to be shared with friends, while reading blogs and checking out other users' recommendations.
Bebe has minted another catchy term for this - "me-tail".
"It's a hybrid between media and retail, which also neatly encapsulates the Me Plc phenomenon," she explains, referring to the net narcissism spawned by the Web 2.0 generation of everyman blogs and websites.
ThisNext's Gould adds: "For brands, tapping into the social web will become far more relevant than advertising online and through search engines, which don't provide the emotional and visual platform that social shopping does." Bebe is confident the luxury sector shouldn't be alienated and that social shopping has an important role to play in the industry. "Many brands are nervous of online as a retail outlet but they can't duck out of the web," she says, noting that many luxury good companies have one thing in common: online is their fastest growing retail channel.
Emily Ling, sales manager at 20ltd.com, a luxury goods site selling limited edition pieces (a Hellcat motorbike recently sold for £40,000) says: "Luxury companies are realising that e-commerce is fundamental to growing their business in that at least 90 per cent of their clientele or potential clientele uses the internet on a daily basis. They do not necessarily have time to shop." Ling adds that the ability to browse is key: "The internet offers the consumer an opportunity to search and choose the product at their own leisure - time being the ultimate luxury - and through this, fancy e-tailing has boomed, as, naturally, the consumer wants what he sees.
Shopping in this fashion is set to evolve even more in the future." Peer recommendation and consumers who want what they see others are buying online could well influence this evolution.
"Brands know that word of mouth is the best way to generate interest and the image conscious brands should seek out those social shoppers who can be their best brand evangelists," says Gould. Don't think of it as following the herd, think of it as the wisdom of the masses.
Cool-hunters stalk the net
Every styleconscious consumer can now be a coolhunting fashion editor, thanks to the internet. At Buyma, a Japanese site similar to eBay, individuals become trendsetters by buying hip products and hardtofind fashion to sell on. They are rated not on reliability but on how hip their offering is. Fashionsavvy web surfers have a bookmark folder full of fashion blogs packed with refreshing opinions and cult followings, while style stars are hooking up on fashion networking site Iqons.
The internet also allows instant access to the seasonal catwalk shows via public access sites.
The catwalks are traditionally a chance for editors to preview trends six months ahead of the season and to plan how best to present these to the consumer.
but all that began to change in 1999 when Anna Wintour, editor of American Vogue, sent a letter to the big international designers, notifying them that images from their catwalk shows would be appearing on sister site Style.com.
The democratisation of fashion has reached its pinnacle on the net, the street has become the new catwalk, and everyone can see what the world is wearing.
Beautifully shot photos on The Sartorialist capture the impeccably dressed; StreetPeeper logs the coolest global looks; and FaceHunter admits only the hip, quirky or beautiful. Having a good hair day? Post a shot of yourself on StyleMob or ShareYourLook and see if the world agrees. Falling head over heels with your new shoes? Spread the love on StyleHive or StyleFeeder. With its "Shop, Watch and Share" layout, Condé Nast is ahead of the rest with ShopVogue.TV, launched in collaboration with Vogue's US edition in September. It offers snappy video content and encourages viewers to "Share your Style" by uploading photos of their favourite outfits or items.
For those unsure about where to start tracking the latest trends online, head to UglyOutfitsNYC, a fantastically cruel yet compulsively addictive stream of street shots detailing exactly what not to wear.
Selected sites:
www.eswarm.comwww.fashionwalker.comwww.kaboodle.comwww.osoyou.comwww.nethaggler.comwww.stylewalker.comwww.thisnext.comwww.20ltd.com
中国“团购潮”影响全球
作者：英国《金融时报》撰稿人菲奥娜•哈金(Fiona Harkin)
2007年11月8日 星期四
当备受吹捧的互联网民主，遇上了备受嘲弄的时尚群体精英优越论，会发生什么呢？当然是新的消费现象，它被称为“集群消费”，是基于用户推荐和同行认可的电子商务。换句话说，它就是时尚的Facebook。这种电子商务新种类——“社交购物”旨在将两种受人喜爱的在线活动，即购物和交际结合在一起。
在中国，集群消费的一种形式“团购”已形成风潮，个人集合成团体与卖家交换，并拉低价格。这种观念在美国也扎了根，NetHaggler等网站使得个人买家集合成团，并迫使广大零售商降价。
ThisNext.com 是新型网站中的一个，它试图将思想独立的购物者与难找的产品联系起来，在这里你可以放松身心，看着它怪异而有些催眠的活动地图(Activity Map)，上面显示着一连串连续的对话泡泡，从世界各地弹出来，提供实时信息，告诉你世界各地的谁都看些什么。现在，首尔的访客可能在看着洛杉矶固执己见的时尚博客推荐的老式貂皮大衣，同时还有三个人把Juicy Couture的JetSet Charm手镯加入了他们的“店播”（广播他们喜爱的、并宣称与某播客有关联的物品）。
日本网站FashionWalker是个富有创意的电子商务/出版混合网站，它把一系列高质量的在线杂志、易于访问的购物门户网，以及用户可以即刻购买服装的一系列实时模特走秀整合在了一起。它不是利基网站——据零售研究集团Japan Consuming表示，其月销售额已经达4亿日元（合260万欧元），它的姐妹网站StyleWalker借其成功顺势推出了社交和购物服务，以及让用户穿上定制数码玩偶的虚拟化身工具。
“人们的购买行为是个发现的过程，”总部位于洛杉矶的ThisNext的共同创始人戈登•古尔德 (Gordon Gould)表示。“大多时候，人们一开始看时并不知道自己想要买什么。社交购物将权力交回给了消费者，因为它承认每个人都能成为鉴赏家，并给他们提供了做出贡献和发现的平台。”
据英国女性社交购物网Osoyou.com董事总经理多恩•贝贝(Dawn Bebe)称，这是全新“推举经济”的诞生。Bebe将Osoyou称为“漂亮、高档次的”平台，类似于《Grazia》和《Elle》等平面杂志。 Osoyou不卖产品，但其独特的卖点在于，用户可以创建购物简介，把他们喜爱的物品打上标签，放入数码衣柜与朋友分享，同时还可以阅读博客并查看其他用户的推荐。贝贝为此制造了另一个朗朗上口的新词——“媒售”。
“这是媒体和零售的结合，还巧妙地融入了‘自我公司'现象，”她解释道，她指的是普通人博客和网站的Web 2.0一代造就的网络自恋。
ThisNext的古尔德补充道：“对品牌而言，利用社交网站比在网上通过搜索引擎打广告要有意义得多，因为他们没有社交网站所提供的情感和视觉平台。”
Bebe确信奢侈品产业不应该疏远自己，社交购物对该产业可以发挥重要作用。“许多品牌对网络零售店都感到不安，但他们不能避开网络，”她说，并指出许多奢侈品公司都有一个共同点：网络是他们增长最快的零售渠道。
销售限量版商品（一辆Hellcat摩托车最近卖了4万英镑）的20ltd.com经理爱米莉•林(Emily Ling)表示：“奢侈品公司意识到，电子商务对发展业务十分重要，因为他们至少90%的客户或潜在客户每天都使用互联网。他们未必有时间购物。”
林补充道，浏览能力是关键：“互联网为消费者提供了机会，让他们可以在自己空闲的时候搜索并选择产品——时间才是最奢侈的——这样别出心裁的电子零售得到了蓬勃发展，因为很自然地，消费者会想要他们看见的东西。这种购物方式今后必将得到进一步发展。”
同行推荐和看到别人在网上买什么自己也想买什么的消费者，会对这种发展产生重大影响。“各个品牌都知道，口口相传是让人产生兴趣的最佳途径，有形象意识的品牌应该挑出那些可以成为最佳品牌宣传的社交购物者，”古尔德表示。不要把它想成跟风，要把它想成大众的智慧。
参考网站：
www.eswarm.comwww.fashionwalker.comwww.kaboodle.comwww.osoyou.comwww.nethaggler.comwww.stylewalker.comwww.thisnext.comwww.20ltd.com译者/红岭
Hayden Panettiere, Fishermen in Violent Sea Confrontation Over Dolphins' Slaughter
Thursday, November 01, 2007,
FOX NewsActress Hayden Panettiere has been involved in a violent confrontation with Japanese fishermen as she tried to disrupt their annual dolphin slaughter.
The 18-year-old star of the TV blockbuster "Heroes" paddled out on a surfboard in an attempt to reach a pod of dolphins to stop them from being driven into a nearby cove and killed.
But the six surfers, from Australia and the United States, were intercepted by a fishing boat before they could reach the dolphins.
The fishermen used the boat's propellers to block their way and at one point struck out with a boathook.
It was an ugly and potentially life-threatening confrontation that lasted more than 10 minutes before the surfers were forced to return to the beach.
It is believed that the dolphins were later taken into the cove and killed.
Panettiere, who is a keen surfer and a committed marine conservationist and supporter of the campaign to save the Japan dolphins, said: "It was really frightening.
"Some of us were hit by the boathook. But in the end all we really worried about was the dolphins.
"It was so incredibly sad. We were so close to them and they were sky hopping, jumping out of the water to see us."
Breaking down in tears, she added: "One little baby dolphin stuck his head out and kinda looked at me and the thought that it's no longer with us is really hard to take."
The surfers drove straight to Osaka airport and left the country to avoid arrest by the Japanese national police.
All would have been charged with trespass, but Panettiere is now back in Los Angeles.
More than 22,000 dolphins are slaughtered by fishermen in Japan every year. The hunt continues despite worldwide condemnation.
In Taijie, more than 2,000 mammals are slaughtered in the season.
Many Japanese believe dolphins should be treated like fish. They have been hunting dolphins for centuries and see any criticism of this as an attack on their culture.
Labels: animal protection, environmental protection, Hayden Panettiere
