Ex-bandits shoot blanks to avoid baby boom By Shuriah Niazi
Apr 2, 2008, Asia Times

BHOPAL, India - In an area of India notorious for untamed outlaw activity, an innovative health campaign is using the local citizens' longstanding love affair with guns to battle overpopulation.

In the Chambal region of Madhya Pradesh - the historic stomping grounds of India's legendary "dacoit", or bandit, gangs - male villagers are lining up for nasbandi, or vasectomy, in return for a cherished gun license. Considering the area's penchant for firearms and its history of crime, men seeking gun permits in the past have faced a stiff application process. Now, men who present a sterilization certificate are sent to the front of the line.

Awarding guns to forestall a baby boom is the brain child of Bhind official Manish Shrivastava, a district tax collector. According to Shrivastava, Chambal has the highest rates of malnourished children and anemic women in India. Other family planning

campaigns, he told Asia Times Online, have misfired largely due to notions of machismo and taboos against intrusive medical procedures.

"I gathered it had to with their perceived notions of manliness. I then decided to match it with a bigger symbol of manliness, a gun license," Shrivastava told The Telegraph newspaper of Calcutta.

So far this year more than 175 men have undergone vasectomies, compared with only eight last year, and Shrivastava expects 100 more in coming weeks. But despite the desired results, the plan has drawn fire from medical and law enforcement officials. In a March 5 article in the The Telegraph, Delhi urologist Suresh Rawat blasted the idea, calling it "ridiculous and irresponsible".

But others, including many Chambal families, feel the campaign is a positive step in securing much-needed weapons, a salve for population problems and a welcome move to modernize a region still shackled to old-time traditions and a dark reputation.

Family planning, at the barrel of a gun

Chambal has been a haven for dacoits, robbers and thugs since as early as the 5th century. The region's yawning chasms and gaping ravines provide an ideal setting for banditry. According to historians, even during Mughal times the powerful administration failed to curb the menace, and as many as 216 dacoits were shot dead and 697 arrested in Bhind district alone from 1959 to 1963. Chambal was the home of the legendary bandit queen Phoolan Devi and other dreaded dacoits.

Guns, many say, are the pride of the Chambal region, and possessing one is a matter of prestige. Residents are known to spend huge sums purchasing weapons and household displays of high-caliber firearms are common. Bhind district has over 92 gun shops and over 23,000 licensed gun owners. Neighboring Shivpuri district has 11,000 gun licensees while nearby Morena district has more than 15,000. On any rural road in Morena, Shivpuri or Bhind it's easy to observe villagers with guns slung with their shoulders. In the Chambal, the gun is a status symbol.

It can also mean self-defense in a region still described as "dacoit-infested" by major Indian newspapers. Local journalist Pravin Chitransh told Asia Times Online, "Dacoits are still active in the ravines here and it is necessary to own a gun to protect oneself from the bandits. However, most bandits do not harm the common people."

Chitransh added that a man loses his honor in society if he loses his gun. A local axiom holds that a person who can't take care of his gun, is good for nothing. According to Chitransh, guns are also routinely used to settle scores. And it's not the first time that gun licenses have been used as incentives for social change. In Morena district in 2005, the superintendent of police offered gun licenses to those who provided information about the criminals.

But the Chambal region, with its rich agricultural tracts, is in the early stages of development; the topography is gradually changing with the reclamation of ravines for agricultural purpose. The dubious distinction of being the home of the dacoits is gradually fading as well. Provincial officials hope that with agricultural and irrigation the area will become prolific and prosperous and, in due time, break the crushing cycle of poverty.

Still, old traditions die hard. Even as locals turn to farming instead of banditry the issue of gun ownership remains both a necessity and social priority. As Bhind resident Sumer told Asia TImes Online, "It's the question of our pride".

Vasectomy plan under fire

Thirty-nine year old Mewat Singh underwent sterilization last month to get himself a gun license. "It's quiet difficult to get a gun license here," he said. "When the administration is offering us incentives for sterilization in the form of gun license, then why should we not take advantage of this?"

Mewat Singh is not alone in the belief that bearing arms outweighs bearing children. Hundreds of people in the region want guns and now a vasectomy is the easiest way to do it legally. As Singh pointed out succinctly, "We will have same pleasure during sex and would have a gun license as well."

"Vasectomy leaves the patient unchanged except that the vas deferens - the tubes leading to the testes - are blocked," said Bhind's Chief Medical Officer Dr Dinesh Kaushik. "The testes still produce sperm, but the sperm die and are absorbed by the body. The level of testosterone remains the same and all male sexual characteristics remain the same. For most men, the ability to have an erection is unchanged. "

Local police claim that an increase in guns does not necessarily equal an increase in crime. The Town Inspector at a police station at Bhind Mahesh Budholia said that more guns means the citizens are more empowered to protect themselves. As he put it, "For committing a crime no one will wait for gun permits. They can use illegal weapons."

Women in the area feel the measure is a good way to control the population. Kanta Tomar told Asia Times Online, " I don't see anything wrong in the proposal. After all the collector is the one who issues the gun permits. He wants that maximum number of people should go for sterilization. He is supporting the state in their efforts to control population. "

But social worker KS Mishra said that Chambal residents will simply do anything to for a gun. According to Mishra, this is not the right way to promote family planning and the "administration must take up other measures to encourage people".

Meanwhile District Collector Shrivastava is beaming. "It has helped immensely in family planning. A large number of people are coming for vasectomies in the hope of obtaining a license for the guns. Our scheme has been quite successful."

Shuriah Niazi is a freelance writer based in central India.

Labels: India

  ¶ 10:26 PM 0 comments

  美國提出贈送“小鷹號”予印度？ 撰文 羅少蘭
2008/03/12, 週三

美國長駐西太平洋地區的“小鷹號”航母今年下半年將正式退役，它的去向頗受軍事愛好者關注，近日印度報章指美國提出贈送“小鷹號”予印度，其後又有報道指印度故意發放消息，目的是向俄羅斯施壓。無論消息是否屬實，“饋贈”的建議對美國而言是一箭多鵰的方案，既可贏得更多軍售訂單，又可以在印度洋留下影響力，更可以加強制衡俄羅斯與中國。

印度《加爾各答電訊報》2月26日報道，到訪的美國國防部長蓋茨給印度總理辛格帶來一封布什的親筆信，信的主要內容是將“小鷹號”航母送給印度，條件是印度將航母上的65架F18“大黃蜂”戰鬥機都買下來。其後有報道引述印度總理辛格指，印度已跟俄羅斯簽署了新的出售航母合約，即印度不會接收“小鷹號”。

不過印度媒體透露，印美兩國早在兩年前就圍繞這次“饋贈”開始談判，顯示贈送“小鷹號”的報道並非毫無根據。按時間推算，很可能是印度總理辛格2005年訪問華盛頓的，美國總統布什向他提出的，而影響深遠的美印民用核協議也是在該次訪問中敲定的。

從美國可能獲得的利益分析，布什政府建議有條件向印度饋贈“小鷹號”，可能性看來頗高。

首先，美國可以從中獲取豐厚的軍售利益。“小鷹號”是一艘老舊的常規動力航母，作戰能力只有60年代的水平，退役後如何妥善處置是美國海軍面對的一個難題。要尋找良好買家的話，必先要進行一系列維修工作，需要不少金錢及時間；況且，現今世上正在籌建航母戰鬥群的國家寥寥無幾，考慮及不會增加敵方軍力，印度對美國而言可以說是絕無僅有的合適買家。

“饋贈”整艘航母聽來非常慷慨，但這肯定是一個拋磚引玉的建議。因為是“饋贈”，美國可以無須在交付前進行修復，可節省一大筆金錢，而且還極有可能從印度取得為“小鷹號”更新技術及設備的合約。但最重大的軍售利益，還是“饋贈”所附帶的條件，即印度須購買艦上65架F18戰鬥機，而且一旦“小鷹號”進入了印度海軍編制，印度將需要購買更多的美國戰機，未來5年購買新型戰機的220億美元預算，大部份將成為美國的囊中之物。

其次，透過饋贈“小鷹號”予印度，美國可以打擊印度與俄羅斯的盟友關係，這符合美國的地緣政治策略。自前蘇聯時代開始，俄羅斯已經是印度的最大武器供應國，兩國關係密切。但近年俄印在圍繞出售“戈爾什科夫海軍上將”號航母的問題上鬧得極不愉快，首先傳出俄羅斯大幅漲價，由最初的15億美元狂漲到現在的 20億美元，理由是“需要安裝更多新系統”；其次是交付日期由2010年延後到2012年或2013年，使交易陷於拉倒邊緣。

若印度收下“小鷹號”，不但原先價值15億美元的俄印艦母交易泡湯，就連相連的、超過20億美元的米格29K戰鬥機交易也會拉倒，勢必影響俄印關係，這對美國無往不利，因為一個與俄羅斯疏遠的印度，可有助美國抗衡俄羅斯與中國在亞太地區的影響。

再者，印度一旦取得“小鷹號”，其海軍力量會大大提高，可進一步確在南亞及印度洋地區的領導地位，而“小鷹號”日後的日常維護難免牽涉美國海軍，這樣儼如將印度海軍也納入了美軍的勢力範圍，也令美軍在印度洋有了一個戰略存在，美國近年苦心經營的圍堵中國策略，將可以更有效發揮。

據報印度軍方有人反對接受美國這份大禮，因為“小鷹號”太老，更新工程或可能是一個“無底深潭”，而且俄羅斯在航母交易中給予印方軍方人士豐厚的“回贈”，這點美國無可能辦到。政治上，不但印度國內的反美勢力會施加壓力，國際上法國、瑞典及歐盟等戰鬥機出口國，也會極力阻止印度接受美方的大禮，防止印度的戰鬥機市場成為美國的囊中之物。看來“小鷹號”退役後的前景如何，現時仍難以論斷。

Labels: India

  ¶ 7:52 AM 0 comments

  It hurts when an Indian bank loan goes bad By Raja M, Asia Times
Nov 8, 2007

MUMBAI - "They ripped my shirt, shaved my moustache, cut my hair and gave electric shocks on my chest and even spat on my face." CLN Murthy, a scientist with the Hyderabad-based Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, described how debt recovery agents tortured him after he defaulted on a US$25,000 loan from ICICI, India's second-largest bank, with $79 billion in assets.

Such experiences are unfolding in India's tragic version of a looming subprime crisis. Multinational banks and their outsourced loan recovery agents are presently running for cover, following public outrage and dire warnings from law-enforcement agencies, consumer courts and the Reserve Bank of India.

In October, the country's apex Supreme Court scolded banks and financial agencies for hiring goons to recover loans, and declared that banks would be held responsible for the actions of their recovery agents.

Screaming news headlines in recent weeks have whipped up horror after a spate of suicides across the country following humiliating harassment from loan recovery agents of multinational banks, including physical assault, rape and sometimes even beating up folks who didn't take a loan, let alone default on it.

Fed up and goaded by angry consumer rights activists, the Delhi Consumer Commission slapped a $139,000 fine on ICICI bank on Monday after its outsourced recovery agents assaulted Delhi resident Vinod Kumar with iron rods. Kumar was a friend of a car loan taker named Tapan Bose, and happened to be standing near the $11,000 car outside a New Delhi club in January. Kumar had to be hospitalized after the assault.

Calling loan recovery agents "goons, boors, brutal louts and yahoos", the consumer commission's president, Justice J D Kapoor, fumed: "No civilized society governed by the rule of law can brook such kind of conduct." He tore into banks for the "audacity and impunity" with which they have gone about violently recovering loans.

In a conversation with Asia Times Online, Charudatta Deshpande, head of corporate communications, ICICI, surprisingly offered no unconditional regret about the bloody assault in Delhi, but instead accused debtor Bose of demanding $114,000 for an out-of-court settlement after the violent incident. He said the ICICI had terminated the services of the collection agency after the incident.

Deshpande blamed the media for "distorting the picture" and dismissed incidents of harassment inflicted on the bank's customers across the country as "aberrations", with the market-dominant bank "having to make 8 million loan recovery calls a month". So a few lives lost here and there are merely a banking industry version of the sickening "collateral damage" euphemism.

Deshpande even claimed he was unaware of the torture of Hyderabad scientist Murthy, a case reported prominently in the Mumbai newspaper Daily News and Analysis (DNA) on November 2. DNA said that Murthy came to an out-of-court settlement with ICICI.

"We follow a standard and robust process for appointing recovery agencies," Mythili Rao of ICICI informed Asia Times Online. "Their background is thoroughly checked."

This "robust process" cost the life of 38-year-old Prakash Sarvankar in Mumbai, who killed himself and blamed ICICI recovery agents in his suicide note. The bank paid $39,000 as compensation to the victim's family, packaged as fixed deposit and insurance covers.

Deven Bharti, joint commissioner (detection) of the Mumbai Police Crime branch, confirmed to Asia Times Online that it's only the middle-class small loan takers who are subjected to savage loan recovery methods from multinational banks, not big defaulters of million-dollar loans who hide behind the impersonal corporate face.

"We have warned banks to stay within the parameters of the law and the guidelines we have laid down for loan recovery," Bharti glowered, "or we will take action against them."

In September, the anti-extortion cell of the Mumbai Crime Branch arrested Umesh Shetty, the Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) bank manager (loans), in the Dadar branch and two recovery agents of the Sai Siddhi Credit Service in suburban Andheri, booked them on charges of extortion, outraging the modesty of a woman, and criminal intimidation. The trio were remanded in police custody for five days, the first instance of police booking a bank official along with its abusive recovery agents.

According to police in the south Indian city of Hyderabad, nine people, including a woman, have committed suicide in the state of Andhra Pradesh following harassment and humiliation by bank loan recovery agents.

A senior police official told local media that 32 cases of loan harassment have been booked in Hyderabad in 2007 and about 100 cases are pending with the economic offenses wing of the Criminal Investigation Department.

Creating their own subprime crisis, banks such as ICICI, HDFC and other finance agencies currently face an estimated loan exposure of about $11.4 billion, with loan amounts per borrower averaging $254.

"Flush with funds, these banks chase the people most in need of money - the poorer sections - and offer them loans at high interest rates," Kishori Udeshi, chairperson of the Mumbai-based governmental watchdog, Banking Codes and Standards Board of India, told Asia Times Online.

Udeshi, a former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India, with over 35 years of experience in central banking, called this loan baiting "predatory lending".

Other senior finance experts have also lashed out at banks for "irresponsible" lending, creating a situation in which people are harassed both after taking a loan and before it.

The harassment starts with unsolicited telemarketing. Phone calls offering loans have become as much of a nuisance as persistent spam offering to lengthen a certain critical part of the male anatomy.

On Sunday, the New Delhi-based Hindustan Times front-paged a report of harassment from banks offering loans, despite cellphone subscribers signing on to the new nationwide "Do Not Call" registry against unsolicited telemarketing.

Vir Sanghvi, former editor of the Hindustan Times and a popular columnist, threatened to publish mobile phone numbers of senior executives of offending banks and urged telemarketing victims among the 6 million Hindustan Times readers to blanket call bank executives with a vengeance.

Mumbai resident Ralph Pais found a more non-confrontational solution. He politely inquires from telemarketers if he has to repay the loans offered. To the surprised "yes, sir", he responds with, "Then I'm not interested." He says he is left alone after that.

Financially vulnerable families succumb to these loan offers and defaulting on an installment or two could bring their worst nightmares ringing the door bell.

A leading Indian business channel, CNBC-TV18, aired in September what it called "a shocking account of how terrorizing consumers into paying up their dues is a thriving business".

With a spy camera, a CNBC reporter went undercover in a loan recovery agency for an unnamed multinational bank. He found the owner casually starting an interview with a prospective recovery agent by probing his expertise in beating up people. The interview continued pleasantly along such lines with the owner telling the candidate, "I hope you have abused a lot of people."

Banks complain that their recovery agents sometimes also get beaten up when calling to collect dues and banking circles have closed ranks in the backlash of widespread bad publicity. They say "activism" against loan recovery will inspire willful defaulters and damage the bank lending system.

Bankers seem to collectively forget that at issue is not the obvious need to recover loans, but the criminal, insensitive, inhuman manner in which they have set about doing it.

Naina Lal Kidwai, group general manager and chief executive officer of HSBC, India, offered the view that if banks stopped lending to low income groups, then the clients would have to return to money lenders who charge usurious rates of interest.

Traditional Indian moneylenders have a reputation for ruthless exploitation, but as yet they have not been linked to a spate of suicides or using electric shocks, iron rods and abusing women to recover loans. Nor do traditional Indian money lenders harass the working public all day with unsolicited loan offers.

HSBC invited a questionnaire from Asia Times Online, but as of the time of writing it had not responded to a query asking if HSBC had a uniform loan recovery process, or whether it varied across income groups.

Labels: India

  ¶ 7:38 AM 0 comments

  印度銀行暴力討債觸眾怒 撰文 Raja M, 亞洲時報
2007/11/09, 週五

孟買 --- 在海德拉巴市“印度化學技術研究所”工作的科學家默瑟（CLN Murthy），因拖欠了ICICI（印度第二大銀行）2.5萬美元，而被追債人員虐待。他描述他的經歷說：“他們撕爛我的襯衫，剃掉我的鬍子，剪去我的頭髮，然後電擊我的胸部，甚至向我的臉上吐口水。”

這樣的故事，在印度版的次貸危機中非常普遍。事實上，跨國銀行與負責催討欠款公司的追債手法，已經觸犯了眾怒。10月，印度最高法庭批評銀行與金融機構，僱用打手來追討債務，並宣佈銀行需為追債公司的行為負責。在遭到執法部門、消費者法庭和“印度儲備銀行”（Reserve Bank of India）的警告後，它們近日已變得低調起來。

近期，印度各地發生多起借貸人被追債人百般羞辱（如毆打與強姦）後飲恨自殺的事件。最近，報紙上的頭條消息更令人感到恐慌，因為連一位並無向銀行借貸的無辜人士，也遭到討債公司毒打。

這名無辜人士名叫庫馬爾（Vinod Kumar），他的朋友博斯（Tapan Bose）向銀行貸款買了一輛價值1.1萬美元的轎車。事發當日，剛從俱樂部出來的庫馬爾恰恰站在車旁，遇襲後因傷勢過重而被送往醫院。

在消費者權益組織的呼籲下，德里消費者委員會終於失去了耐心，11月5日向ICICI銀行作出了罰款13.9萬美元的裁決，理由是與其合作的討債公司人員，用鐵棍將庫馬爾打成重傷。

消費者委員會主席、法官喀普爾（J D Kapoor）將追債者稱作“暴徒”和“粗人”，還說：“任何文明的法治社會都不會容許如此行徑。”他又批評說，正由於銀行的“厚顏無恥”與“不受處罰”，討債公司才敢如此囂張。

然而，在接受《亞洲時報在線》採訪時，ICICI銀行的企業傳播部負責人戴施潘德（Charudatta Deshpande），並沒有對這一事件感到遺憾。相反，他指出博斯事後企圖向銀行索要11.4萬美元，以達成庭外和解。他說，ICICI已中止了與涉案的討債公司之間的合作關係。

戴施潘德指責媒體“扭曲事實”，稱這宗騷擾銀行客戶的事件，只不過是“一時糊塗”，並說該銀行“一個月要打800萬個討債電話”。

孟買的《每日新聞和分析》11月2日報道了上述科學家默瑟的經歷，並稱他已與ICICI達成了庭外和解。戴施潘德卻表示對此毫不知情。

ICICI銀行員工拉奧（Mythili Rao）對《亞洲時報在線》說：“在挑選追債公司時，我們遵循一套嚴格的標準與程序。我們還會仔細調查它們的背景。”

然而，正是這種“嚴格的標準與程序”，在孟買奪去了薩爾萬卡（Prakash Sarvankar）38歲的生命。他在遺書中說，是ICICI的追債人員讓他走投無路，被迫選擇自殺的。為息事寧人，這間銀行不得不以定期存款和保險單的形式，向受害者家庭賠償了3.9萬美元。

孟買警方犯罪科的專員巴爾迪（Deven Bharti）向筆者證實，遭遇跨國銀行暴力追債的，只是些中產階層的小額借貸者，而不是向銀行借了上百萬美元的企業經營者。巴爾迪說：“我們已向銀行提出警告，要求他們在法律與規章範圍內討債。不然，我們將對其採取行動。”

9 月，孟買警方逮捕了房屋開發融資公司（HDFC）在達達爾區的貸款部門經理史迪（Umesh Shetty），以及追債公司Sai Siddhi Credit Service的兩名工作人員，控告他們敲詐勒索、侮辱婦女和刑事恐嚇。三人被警局拘留了五日，成為首宗銀行官員與討債人員同時遭警方控告的案件。

根據海德拉巴警方，安得拉邦有9人在被討債公司滋擾和侮辱後自殺，其中一名為女性。一名高級警官對當地媒體表示，海德拉巴今年已發生32宗與貸款有關的騷擾案件，還有100宗等待罪案調查科經濟犯罪部門的處理。

在印度的次貸風波中，ICICI、HDFC等金融機構，約有114億美元的貸款預計難以收回，平均每個借貸者為254美元。

“印度銀行業規範與標準理事會”主席佑德施（Kishori Udeshi）他對筆者說：“鑒於資金充足，這些銀行開始爭奪那些亟需貸款的人群，特別是那些貧困階層，向他們提供高息貸款。”他並將此種貸款圈套稱作 “掠奪性借貸”。他曾在印度儲備銀行擔任副行長，並在央行工作過35年。

不少金融專家也批評說，正是銀行“不負責”的行為，令人們在借貸前後均受到滋擾。首先，是沒完沒了的電話推銷。這類電話，就像那些吹噓讓男人更有“雄風”的垃圾廣告一樣，讓人感到厭煩。

幾日前，新德里的《印度斯坦時報》刊登了一則頭條新聞，稱即使手機用戶已申請拒接陌生來電的服務，依然受到了銀行貸款部門的騷擾。

《印度斯坦時報》的前編輯、頗受歡迎的專欄作家桑維（Vir Sanghvi）威脅說，將公佈那家銀行所有高管的手機號碼，並呼籲電話推銷的受害者們屆時輪番撥打他們的電話，進行報復。

對付這類電話，孟買人帕斯（Ralph Pais）找到了一個獨到有效的辦法：他很有禮貌地問打來電話的推銷員，他是否需要償還貸款。得到對方詫異的回答—“當然”後，他說“那我就沒有興趣了”。他表示，從此再未受到這類騷擾。

如果接受了此類貸款，財政狀況不佳的家庭若拖欠上一兩次還貸，他們的噩夢很快就會來臨。

9 月，印度知名的商業頻道CNBC-TV18就“恐嚇消費者還貸如何變成一樁興旺生意”，播出了一個專題節目。一名喬裝的CNBC記者，攜帶著秘密攝像頭，走入了一家與跨國銀行有著合作關係的追債公司。記者發現，老闆在面試求職者時，只關心對方有無打架的專長。末了，老闆還對應聘者說：“我希望你以前‘修理 ’過不少人。”

由於討債導致形象大受影響，銀行方面抱怨說，他們的討債人員在收取到期賬目時屢遭毆打，並認為目前一致反對討債的輿論，將“鼓勵”更多人故意賴賬，從而損害銀行的借貸體系。

顯然，銀行界似乎想偷換話題，因為目前引起爭議的，不是應不應討債，而是它們毫無人性的討債方式。

匯豐銀行印度業務主管基德瓦伊（Naina Lal Kidwai）認為，如果銀行停止向低收入階層放貸，這類客戶可能將不得不去借高利貸。他說，雖然印度高利貸者是出了名的無情，但他們並未捲入用電擊、鐵棍等手段逼債，或造成借貸者自殺的事件；他們也不會頻頻打擾民電話推銷貸款。

對於筆者向匯豐銀行（印度）發送的部分問題，包括“匯豐銀行有無統一的討債程序，對各個收入階層是否一視同仁”等，至發稿前仍未收到它的回答。

（章彊編譯）

Labels: India

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  周末書評：印度闖出美中之外的第三條路 撰文 Scott B MacDonald
2007/08/24, 週五，亚洲时报

書名：《印度星球》（Planet India: How the Fastest-Growing Democracy Is Transforming America and the World）
作者：凱姆達爾（Misa Kamdar）

派 爾(Kenneth B. Pyle)所著的《日本崛起》(Japan Rising: The Resurgence of Japanese Power and Purpose)一書，有一個有趣的結論：日本是個適應性的大國，“遵從現有國際體系的機會較高”。言下之意是，它不可能成為真正的霸權國家，因為它不具 備美法中俄等國革命所體現的、對其他國家有吸引力的普世價值觀。

正如亞洲時報在線撰稿人Sreeram Chaulia在有關《日本崛起》的書評中指出，日本“似乎註定是一個謹小慎微的適應性大國，它從國際體系中得到的多，付出的少”。然而，崛起中的印度並非如此。

凱姆達爾(Mira Kamdar) 是“世界政策研究所”高級研究員，兼美國“亞洲協會”（Asian Society）的副院士。她認為，印度在經濟方面正在崛起，融入全球化進程，並成為不斷改變的國際體系中日益重要的玩家。在這些方面，印度的民主資本主 義實驗，對於鄰國尤其是那些欠發達國家的吸引力與日俱增。

她在《印度星球》一書中強調，印度的軟實力（其民主制度的魅力）和不斷取得的經濟成就，使這個國家成為既不同於專制中國、也不同於富裕得多（但更揮霍、更 貪圖享樂）的美國的另一模式。她說：“從全球反恐、到尋找危險流行病的治療方法，從解決能源危機、到避免全球暖化的最糟結果出現，從重新平衡全球嚴重的不 均衡現象、到促進必要的革新以創造就業機會和改善生活──印度如今已成為一個重要的一員。全球都在進行具有深遠意義的重新調整，在此過程中，亞洲的崛起是 最重要的，而印度對這個新世界至關重要。”

凱姆達爾解釋寫《印度星球》的原因說，“因為我認為，印度從來沒有像現在這樣，對一個陷入危機的世界影響重大”。西方操控的舊世界秩序正在崩潰，這點從嚴 峻的環境問題、瘋狂爭奪自然資源、全球恐怖主義、極端不平等以及艾滋病等疾病肆虐可見一斑。雖然西方的生活水平高，對世界其它國家人仍很有吸引力，但是西 方社會昂貴的生活方式，是不可能輕易被複製的。因此，這就需要另一個模式，而印度能填補這一空缺。

凱姆達爾說，“印度的目標大得令人摒息：從一個擁有10多億人口的發展中國家，變成一個發達國家，到2020年躍身成為全球的領導者，而且還是要在資源短缺、環境不斷惡化的時代裏，實現這一目標。”

雖然《印度星球》大致上是一本宣揚“印度第一”的書，但它也明確指出了該國存在的所有問題：腐敗猖獗、基礎設施嚴重落後、社會經濟發展不均衡、水資源缺乏、疾病肆虐以及污染嚴重。

例如，凱姆達爾提到：“印度有可能成為全球最致命的流行病滋生的溫床。它也迅速成為非傳染性流行病之都，糖尿病和心臟病的發病率，遠遠高出全球的平均水 平。”她還考慮到以下問題，例如婦女、貧困階層以及其他人處境堪憂，以及印度教徒與穆斯林之間的緊張關係，所有這些都對“印度星球”構成威脅。

儘管面臨一大堆問題，但印度非常渴望改革。從1990年代初起，改革就促進了該國經濟的發展，擺脫了社會主義的發展模式。印度提供了一種替代發展模式，介 乎富有但遙不可及的西方模式，與政治上專制但經濟發展日益加快的中國之間。印度必須給全球問題，例如疾病，提供更低成本的解決辦法。

凱姆達爾寫道：“不過，或許印度也最有希望找到解決這些疾病以及其它危害全球數十億人口災害的辦法。高成本的養生法，只能幫助少數受感染的人。如果印度可 以找到低成本、便利的療法，例如口服胰島素療法，這樣病人就不用打針了，數百萬人的生活將得到改善。”除了尋求更低成本的疾病療法，還可以把這種方法應用 到其它領域，包括尋找替代能源。

凱姆達爾寫了一本有趣的、討論時局問題的書，大多數美國人都應該拜讀這本書，尤其當下正值印度日益成為美國生活的一部分（這表現在生活和工作在美國的印度 人、出現在美國市場的印度產品、外包給德裏或孟買的業務與日俱增）。她指出，生活在美國的印度人，是“在美國最富有、受教育最好的外來群體之一”。

這些成功日益使印度和美國走得更近，在美國的印度人希望回報祖國。這肯定是美印關係在克林頓和布什當政期間大為改善的一個重要原因。美印雙方基於與日俱增的共同戰略問題，包括激進伊斯蘭和中國崛起所構成的威脅，越走越近。

凱姆達爾認為，就夥伴關係而言，印度的崛起也給美國提供了歷史機遇：印度和美國無疑是當今全球最大的兩國民主國家，現在它們真正有機會，互相提醒各自建國時期的基本道德準則、拋棄瘋狂的軍國主義、並挽救我們的環境。

愈來愈多人著書描寫印度的崛起。印度人口龐大、而且不斷增加，加之全球競爭日趨激烈、資源有限，因此新德里必須全速前進。印度的偉大實驗，是21世紀初最重要的事件之一。顯然，《印度星球》一書是印度相關文獻中，較值得注意的新亮點之一，筆者在此強烈推薦。

譯者：楊柳

Labels: India

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  周未書評：印度前情報分析主管稱三十年前曾阻中國“兼併緬北” 撰文 Sreeram Chaulia
2007/08/24, 週五, 亚洲时报

書名：《R&AW的特工們》（The Kaoboys of R&AW: Down Memory Lane）
作者：拉曼（B Raman）

保密和情報機構，可以是同義詞。一般公眾鮮有機會一窺特工的秘密世界，以及他們在國家秘密機構鐵幕背後的英勇事蹟。

拉曼（B Raman）是印度對外情報機構“R&AW”（ 研究分析局）的反恐科前負責人，通過其《R&AW的特工們》一書，讓公眾一窺這個“黑盒子”的內幕。他一方面通過此書，懷念印度情報界默默無聞的 戰士，同時也思索了這個傳奇組織的問題。（編注：拉曼在書名中用上Kaoboy一字，據印度傳媒解釋，這字眼意指那些忠心耿耿的間諜特工；這字眼也可能來 自R&AW首任局長Kao的名字。）

拉曼在開篇就把矛頭對準了美國。他在R&AW 工作的26年期間，美國國務院一直是他痛恨的對象。例如，美國國務院曾把新德里與它分享的錫克裔動亂情報，轉交給巴基斯坦。又例如，在1992年，由於印 度拒絕美國偵察機在空中拍攝印度與中國的邊界，美國國務院就威脅對印實施經濟制裁。

在1994年，美國又警告新德里說，如果R&AW不中止在巴基斯坦的秘密任務，美國將“採取對印度不利的行動”。

拉曼也敘述了在1971年“東巴基斯坦危機”加劇期間，時任印度總理甘地夫人（Indira Gandhi，1966年至1980年連續四屆當選印度總理），決定讓剛成立兩年半的R&AW出動一事。（編注：1971年印巴第三次戰後，其後 東巴基斯坦獨立，成為孟加拉國。）

他指出，當年R&AW負責訓練孟加拉的遊擊隊，組織一場心理戰打擊巴基斯坦的統治者。甘地夫人幾乎每天都能竊聽到巴基斯坦高級將領討論局勢演變的電話交談。她每做一項決定，都會咨詢R&AW首腦卡奧（R N Kao）。

在1969－1971年間，R&AW破壞了獲中國支持的 “納加族”（Naga）和“米佐族”（Mizo）叛亂組織，在緬甸和東孟加拉的交通設施、庇護所和基礎設施。

當時美國的尼克松政府發起與巴國聯合反擊印度，支持印度旁遮普邦錫克人的分離主義運動。時任美國國家安全顧問基辛格，還在媒體和公共論壇大談印度侵犯錫克裔的人權。美國對錫克裔尋求建立卡利斯坦（Khalistan）國的叛亂活動，一直持續支持到1984年。

不過，R&AW與美國中情局之間並非只是簡單的敵對關係。它們曾聯手阻止了中國可能兼併緬甸北部的行動。於1975－77年擔任美國中情局局長的 老布什，更因而成為卡奧的私交。後來在老布什擔任副總統時，卡奧成功說服他，切斷對卡利斯坦分離分子的援助。拉曼對此評論說：“兩個情報機構之間，善意和 惡意如影隨形。”（頁42）

在1970年代中期，卡奧意識到R&AW迫切需要加強能力，搜集美國在印度洋活動的情報。他匆忙與法國和伊朗情報機構建立聯繫，合作監視美國的行動。鑒於當時的伊朗巴列維王朝，是美國最親密的盟友之一，此舉的確令人感到驚奇。

在拉曼看來，R&AW當前搜集美國情報的能力仍然很弱。他批評當前的辛格（Manmohan Singh）政府“看來沒有給予足夠的關注”。

R&AW於1968年創立後不久，卡奧就與以色列情報機構“摩薩德”（Mossad）建立秘密聯繫，“學習它的反恐技巧”（頁127）。在 1980年代初，巴基斯坦的確擔心印度和以色列情報機構合作，摧毀它在卡胡塔（Kahuta）的濃縮鈾工廠。12年來，摩薩德官員一直以南美商人的身份， 駐紮在新德里。

拉曼提到的一個有趣事態發展是，在約旦塔拉爾親王的牽線下，印度的R&AW和巴基斯坦“三軍情報局”（Inter Services Intelligence）的首腦，曾於1980年後期多次秘密會晤。三軍情報局否認窩藏卡利斯坦恐怖分子，但在公共媒體視線之外，它的確向印度 R&AW移交了一些從印度軍隊叛逃的錫克人。

相對於聯合反恐機制，拉曼更支持這種交流方式，因為雙方的特工頭子，可在沒有正式議程的情況下定期會晤，“對照一下各自就共同利益發展的看法”（頁234）。

1975年之後，印度情報人員在東部邊境的表現下滑，拉曼將部分責任歸咎於局內負責孟加拉事務的分支，認為問題在於他們有欠客觀。

此外，政客操縱的政治迫害、裙帶關係、歧視性的內部國安檢查、高級和低級官員之間的隔閡、放縱、以及工會的興起，所有這些因素，都對R&AW造成 了很大傷害。在招募問題上，還有跨部門之間的資歷安排問題上，摩擦持續存在，“即使是機關建立39年後的今天，這仍妨礙團隊精神的形成”（頁133）。

R&AW科技部門的桑塔納姆（K Santanam），是第一個評估到巴基斯坦秘密建立濃縮鈾廠的人。他有系統地監視巴基斯坦核計劃的發展。拉曼披露說，當時的印度總理德賽（1977- 79在任）輕率地告訴巴基斯坦總統哈克（Zia ul-Haq）：他知道伊斯蘭堡的核計劃。

R&AW曾訓練過很多非洲獨立國家的情報官員，又協助過南非和納米比亞的反對種族隔離鬥爭。一些退休的R&AW官員，會被派駐到非洲國家 的情報訓練機構。令拉曼感到非常惋惜的是，由於後來疏忽，R&AW將先前在非洲贏得的善意和影響力，拱手讓給了中國。

另一方面，當年R&AW有關卡利斯坦恐怖分子的情報，有一部分證明是錯誤的。拉曼對此堅持說，“跨邊境行動缺乏協調，通常導致誤差以及誤導性的和 警告性的報道，這一直是我們情報界的痛處。”1984年甘地夫人遇刺身亡，就跟“印度情報局”（Intelligence Bureau）高級官員玩忽職守和監督鬆懈有關，卡奧對此一直耿耿於懷。

同樣，拉曼曾提醒有關方面，要當心來自斯里蘭卡的泰米爾極端分子，刺殺拉吉夫．甘地（甘地夫人之子，1984至1989年任總理、1991 年遇刺身亡）。然而，他的警告受到情報界的質疑，結果產生了致命的後果。“在德里，大家都相信他們（斯里蘭卡泰米爾人）不會傷害拉吉夫，因為他和他的母 親，比任何一位印度領導人對他們的幫助都多。”（頁236）

拉曼直言不諱地指出，印度安全機構“幾乎不承認它們的缺陷，這就是為什麼悲劇會接連發生”。情報局對R&AW的嫉妒、戒心和偏見，導致印度情報界支離破碎。而且，兩個平行存在的情報機關，對印度納稅人來說也是不必要的負擔。

拉曼用了很多篇幅，說明1980年代R&AW在反間諜工作方面的弱點。法國情報機構滲入了印度總理辦公室，美國中情局又被發現在R&AW 的欽奈辦公室搜集情報。R&AW特工辛格（Rabinder Singh）被揭發原來為美國中情局工作了多年，最近叛逃到美國。這些都顯示了印度情報界的可悲之處。去年甚至有報道說，美國中情局已滲透進了印度國家安 全委員會秘書處。拉曼悲觀地預測說，也許有一天，“這個國家所有敏感機構，都會在情報合作的名義下受到嚴重滲透。”（頁255）

拉曼又指出，由於“不必要地沉迷於西歐的語言”，R&AW特工在語言方面存在缺陷，往往不利他們在印度周邊國家的活動（頁130）。英國知名安全機構“軍情五處”（MI5）“掌握旁遮普語的專家，要比R&AW和印度情報局的總和還多”（頁152）。

拉曼還發現，前任總理瓦傑帕伊（Atal Bihair Vajpayee）政府和現任辛格政府下的國家安全管理，結構存在問題：R&AW的首腦被降格為國家安全顧問的下屬，甚少能與總理直接溝通。

拉曼承認，R&AW官員曾向拉吉夫“獻計”，以掩蓋有爭議的“博福斯軍購回扣醜聞”（編注：瑞典軍火商博福斯透過行賄獲得訂單）。博福斯醜聞“暴 露了我們情報和調查機構最惡劣的一些特徵”。然而，正是在拉吉夫執政期間，R&AW、特別是其負責巴基斯坦事務的部門，重新獲得了強大的秘密活動 能力。

也是在拉吉夫時代，R&AW在中印關係正常化的過程中，發揮了重要的幕後作用，兩國情報首腦之間建立了熱線。中印兩國政治領導人利用這條熱線，可 繞過正常的外交管道互通消息。在1991年第一次海灣戰爭期間，中國情報部門就曾提出向印度供應石油，以助印度應付任何可能出現的石油短缺。

不過，拉曼總體上認為，R&AW在分析有關中國的情報方面仍然做得不夠。

在冷戰結束後，R&AW利用與俄羅斯情報界的密切關係，獲得了保證：無論莫斯科的政治氣候怎樣變化，都不會放棄對印度的友好立場。

1987年當印控克什米爾開始叛亂時，R&AW堵塞了巴基斯坦的廣播和電訊渠道，並反過來在巴控克什米爾宣傳印度的立場。它還在印度的穆斯林社區 以及歐洲的南亞穆斯林移民社區當中，煽動反巴基斯坦的情緒。它與巴基斯坦政圈和民間社會中“親印度”的人士，建立強有力的聯繫網絡。它還開始與那些不滿巴 國情報人員滲透阿富汗的游擊指揮官建立聯繫。

1993年孟買發生連環爆炸，是印度首次發生導致大量人員傷亡的恐怖襲擊，R&AW綜合各種可靠的證據後，認為是巴基斯坦三軍情報局直接插手了恐 怖襲擊行動。當時卡奧曾憤怒地表示，儘管證據確鑿，“但美國決不會因巴基斯坦對印度所做的事，而採取行動反對巴基斯坦。”拉曼補上一句說，“即使在今天， 跟過去還是一樣的。”（頁277）

譯者：晏陽

Labels: India

  ¶ 2:20 AM 0 comments

  Abe praises Indians who backed Japan in WWII by Elizabeth Roche Thu Aug 23, 2007

KOLKATA, India (AFP) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe voiced admiration Thursday for two controversial Indians who stood up to colonial ruler Britain during World War II and sided with Tokyo.

Abe visited the eastern city of Kolkata to meet relatives of nationalist Subhash Chandra Bose, who advocated violent resistance, and Radhabinod Pal, the sole judge who dissented at the Allied tribunal that condemned to death war-time Japanese leaders.

"Many Japanese have been moved deeply by such persons of strong will and action of the independence of India like Subhash Chandra Bose," Abe said in a speech at the opening of the Indo-Japan Cultural Centre.

"Even to this day, many Japanese revere Radhabinod Pal."

The premier, wrapping up a three-day official visit to India, met the son of the judge Prashanto Pal, 81.

Abe has dismissed suggestions back home that meeting Pal's son would anger other Asian nations resentful over Japan's wartime atrocities.

In a dissenting opinion, Pal questioned the legitimacy of the tribunal, sealing a friendship between Pal and Abe's grandfather Nobusuke Kishi, who was charged but never tried as a war criminal.

Prashanto Pal told AFP he was "very, very happy to see" Abe.

"I feel proud of the fact that my father is still remembered for his contribution that was only correct and just. How can you blame only one side for war crimes and not the others?"

Abe's stop in Kolkata came at the end of a high-profile visit during which India and Japan vowed to seal an economic partnership deal by December.

The premier who later left for Kuala Lumpur held talks with West Bengal state's Marxist chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and toured a museum dedicated to Bose.

After WWII broke out, Bose escaped his British watchers, sought help from Nazi Germany and later went to Tokyo, where he organised an army.

Abe spent time looking at black-and-white photos of Bose as a young boy, his May 1942 meeting with Adolf Hitler in Berlin and a picture of his German wife, Emilie Schenkl, holding their baby girl.

He was shown around the museum by Krishna Bose, a niece of the nationalist leader by marriage and her son, Sugata, a Harvard University history professor.

"I was very impressed to see so many memorabilia" related to Bose "who had a strong bond with Japan," Abe told reporters.

"I expressed strong determination to strengthen our bilateral relations that Subhash Chandra Bose had wanted."

Other pictures capture Bose's 90-day journey from Germany to Japan aboard a submarine between February and May 1943. And the last known photo of Bose shows him stepping off a plane in Saigon on August 17, 1945, a day before his widely disputed death in an aircrash in Taipei.

Abe "was very interested to see all the pictures, he was able to identify many of the Japanese in them. He was particularly thrilled to see the submarine photo and to see Bose with the Japanese crew," Sugata Bose told AFP.

The exhibits include swords, coats, caps and footwear as well as furniture and scores of books owned by Bose until he fled Kolkata in 1941.

"This is the first visit by a Japanese prime minister to Kolkata and to the museum so it is an occasion for a double celebration," said 76-year-old Krishna who heads a trust that has preserved the three-storey residence as a museum.

Sugata Bose said she had presented Abe with a DVD containing the nationalist leader's speeches on Asian solidarity and a picture that showed him on his way to see the Japanese emperor in Tokyo in 1943.

Labels: India, Japan

  ¶ 1:22 AM 0 comments

  Abe praises dissenting war crimes judge

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

Labels: India, Japan

  ¶ 1:11 AM 0 comments

  安倍晋三对持日本战犯无罪论者表示敬意 英国《金融时报》乔•约翰逊(Jo Johnson)新德里、戴维•皮林(David Pilling)东京报道
2007年8月24日 星期五

日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)在对印度进行国事访问期间，冒着激怒中国和韩国政府的风险，昨日向印度法官拉达比诺德•帕尔(Radhabinod Pal)表示了敬意。帕尔因抨击1946年至1948年对日本战犯的审判而受到日本军国主义者的崇敬。

安倍晋三上周决定不参拜靖国神社，以纪念二战结束，令日本的很多民族主义分子大为失望。为了安抚这些人，安倍晋三在加尔各答和帕尔的儿子进行了20分钟的会晤。

帕尔死于1967年，在对二战战犯的审判中，他是唯一一名裁定全部被告无罪的法官。这些被告中包括日本战时首相东条英机。

译者/李碧波

Labels: India, Japan

  ¶ 1:10 AM 0 comments

  India's military eyes private options By Siddharth Srivastava, Asia Times
Aug 10, 2007

NEW DELHI - It looks as if the defense-modernization exercise of neighbors India and China may be increasingly driven by private enterprise.

Reports this week say that China has allowed its private entrepreneurs to invest in defense industries, including weapons production, in a move that considerably expands the range of such involvement. China has been slowly unshackling the historical monopoly of the state on its military industry since 2005, when private firms were allowed to produce non-strategic military equipment.

In India too, the government is looking at private enterprise to provide the necessary impetus for state-of-the-art military products.

With India heavily dependent on imports to meet domestic defense production deficiencies, strong private players are a necessity. State-owned factories have failed to keep up with the cutting-edge requirements of today's military. In addition, Indian Defense Minister A K Antony recently said imported arms often do not meet local conditions, such as extreme weather.

He said the government's aim is to replicate the South Korean model in which the industrial arms base was developed by the private and the public sectors, foreign investments and technology transfers.

India's import of military hardware and software will reach US$30 billion within the next five years, the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry recently said.

Sunil Bharti Mittal, president of the Confederation of Indian Industry, recently said, "Indian companies should rise to qualify for the requirements of Indian defense." A government-appointed committee too has recommended "entry points for the private sector in the acquisition process" of the Ministry of Defense, and "accreditation and fostering of champions" among such private entities.

Over the years, private firms have developed some amount of expertise, but need to scale up to the next level of competition.

Mahindra Defense Systems (MDS) is working on the production of 8,000 light specialist vehicles and mine-proof vehicles for the Indian Army. It is also manufacturing 300 lightweight mines for the navy.

MDS is competing with the government Ordnance Factory Board, which has linked up with General Motors to produce the US Army's Hummer, and Bharat Earth Movers Ltd, which will produce the British Range Rover.

Engineering and construction giant Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is looking to win portions of the $15 billion production contract for a submarine fleet for the Indian Navy. L&T is also working on the hull fabrication of India's first indigenous nuclear submarine and Pinaka rocket launchers. The company has also received a Rs4.5 billion (US$111 million) order to make four ships for Rotterdam-based Zadeko and is planning to de-merge its defense division into a separate entity

Godrej, looking at aerospace contracts, is working on assembling airframe parts for Brahmos cruise missiles and is also supplying launchers to the Indian Space Research Organization and equipment for civil and military nuclear reactors.

Foreign defense companies have been looking to tap India's low-cost skilled manpower and manufacturing capabilities.

European Aeronautics Defense and Space Co (EADS) has reportedly been in talks with L&T, MDS and the Tata group to float joint ventures in India. US giant Boeing is also reported to be working on similar plans. Russian and South Korean companies are scouting for Indian partners.

According to a report this week, L&T is looking to tap international defense and aerospace markets in partnership with Boeing and EADS. L&T is setting up two defense and aerospace manufacturing units in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra states with an investment of Rs5 billion. The report says that both Boeing and EADS have agreed to source components from L&T.

The existing policy for foreign direct investment in defense caps it at 26%, while a so-called offset clause requires 30-50% of the defense deal's value to be reinvested in India. It is estimated that the offset policy will bring aviation offshoring deals worth more than $10 billion to India in the near future.

Boeing, which manufactures the F/A-18 fighter jets, hopes to leverage "bankable offsets" to increase its engagement with India Inc. The company has a tremendous track record on offsets, investing close to $30 billion in 35 countries.

The government has also ruled out allowing multinational arms companies to go in for indirect offsets (investments in non-defense sectors) in defense deals and has been trying to play its part in encouraging private investment.

An agreement has been signed between India's main software-industry body the National Association of Software and Services Industry and the government-managed Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) that oversees all state defense production. The DRDO has been severely criticized for its lumbering pace and for in-built inefficiencies.

However, it is felt that the Indian private firms can only play a big role if the government, which will be one of the main customers, begins to hand out more contracts and involve them in the bidding process, instead of relying on foreign vendors or state-owned defense factories.

Observers say that the trust factor in the government-private interface is still lacking, with most Indian private firms actually looking at the export option for the immediate future.

New Delhi has short-listed 12 private firms to be accorded special Raksha Udyog Ratnas status (RUR, or defense-industry status), based on turnover and past performance. Potential candidates are Tata Motors, Godrej and Boyce, Bharat Forge, Mahindra and Mahindra, Tata Power Co, L&T, HCL, Infosys and Wipro.

The RUR status will also enable them to get substantial government support as well allowing them to be involved in the bids.

However, because of resistance by left-wing political parties, a formal notification has not been issued. The left-wing parties represent powerful trade unions that oppose such privatization. The unions represent more than half of the nearly 200,000 workers in 39 ordnance factories and eight defense public-sector units.

This is an ironical situation given that China, with which the leftists claim affinity, is moving toward privatizing defense.

As the momentum toward privatizing China's military production grows, it is important that New Delhi stays abreast of the trend, and in this India Inc will have to play an important part.

Siddharth Srivastava is a New Delhi-based journalist.

(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved)

Labels: India

  ¶ 11:00 AM 0 comments

  India mixes arms and energy access By Siddharth Srivastava, Asia Times
Aug 3, 2007

NEW DELHI - India's energy needs and status as a big global arms purchaser from some and supplier to others are increasingly becoming intertwined. Having lost out to China in several direct bids for energy sources around the world, the tying up of energy needs with arms supplies or purchase contracts is emerging as a subtle, even if unstated, strategy.

'There is a thinking in the government that a connection can be made between military relationships and access to energy sources," said a senior government official, on condition of not being named. "Obviously such a relationship is being played out in a very quiet manner, as any enunciation of the same can result in negative repercussions."

According to these sources, such a strategy is being played out in Central Asia, where India's air base in Tajikistan, a former Soviet republic, will be operational by the end of this year. This will be India's first real overseas military facility. Indian forces have been previously involved in humanitarian efforts internationally.

A joint operation at the Ayni Air Base near the Tajik capital Dushanbe is expected to be completed by this month, and the base will be operational by December. New Delhi is looking to station at least 12 MiG-29 fighters at Ayni. India has also offered to rebuild the Varzob-1 hydropower plant in Tajikistan. Observers say India's interests in the region's vast gas reserves is behind the foray. A closer intelligence-gathering network to monitor radical Muslim outfits in the region because of its proximity with Jammu and Kashmir is the other main purpose.

In Africa, Indian energy firms have linked energy ties with other infrastructure support.

Even as it tried hard in Africa and Russia for energy, India has always relished the idea of tapping Central Asian gas and petroleum resources. However, access has always been a problem because of geographical and political limitations, unlike, say, Qatar, Algeria, Indonesia or the Middle East, which are outside the envelope of trouble spots such as Afghanistan and Pakistan.

New Delhi is seeking access in Kazakhstan and looking at megaprojects such as the Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline and another connecting Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. The Turkmenistan pipeline does not involve either Iran or the United States, and thus has none of the geopolitical problems.

However, there is every likelihood of encountering major security problems in these regions, with radical outfits such as the Taliban exercising control over vast areas of Afghanistan, as evidenced by the recent kidnapping and killing of South Korean hostages.

In this context, a military base in Tajikistan can provide additional leverage, critical intelligence inputs and the ability to keep a closer eye on key energy-rich centers of the region. Security cover can be provided to any pipeline network.

New Delhi is looking for new energy-source centers as Iran is slipping as an energy partner, which some say is due to Washington's insistence that New Delhi should stay away from Tehran on all energy matters.

Last week Rakteem Katakey, Iran's energy and economic counselor in India, said Iran could send its gas all over the world and it is up to India to decide what it wants. Iran has also informed state explorer ONGC (Oil and Natural Gas Corp) Videsh Ltd that a memorandum it signed for the development of the Jufeyr and Yadavaran fields has expired.

With this, the future of India's LNG (liquefied natural gas) deal with Iran that was linked to the development of those fields is also in question.

India, Iran and Pakistan have been trying to sort out pricing, transit and security issues related to the US$7.5 billion IPI pipeline. Tehran has said it is looking to begin supply of gas to India by 2011. However, until the deal is finally inked, there is no certainty.

There has been a new twist, with India and Pakistan recently saying they are opposed to the draft agreement Tehran has submitted seeking revision of price at any time during the contract period.

Indian Petroleum Minister Murli Deora, who is in Tehran this week, has described the Iranian proposal as partisan. New Delhi is already unhappy with Tehran reopening price negotiations to an LNG deal signed earlier.

Moving on to another region to the east of India where military aspects are coming to the fore, Amnesty International has recently quoted "credible sources" to say that New Delhi has plans to sell military helicopters to Myanmar that will undermine a European Union arms embargo on the military-ruled country.

India's proposed sale of the Advanced Light Helicopter, which includes components from the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Sweden, Italy and Belgium, may harm the EU's almost 20-year restriction on such sales to Myanmar, whether "directly or indirectly", the London-based group has said.

There is no denying that India still wants to have access to Myanmar's rich gas sources if it can, despite China stealing a march in the country. The thinking in New Delhi seems to be that India, beyond just the economics of buying gas, will have to extend strategic support, including supply of arms to Myanmar, to stand a chance against China.

Recently, India's Ministry of External Affairs faulted the Petroleum Ministry and its Gas Authority of India Ltd utility for failing to follow up the Myanmar government's initial offer of gas from two offshore areas where two Indian state-owned companies hold 30% equity.

One more country where defense and energy, although of another variety, are increasingly interlinked is the US.

A final version of the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal has been sealed, and that should pave the way for India to access nuclear-fuel supplies for electrical-power generation. An understanding seems to have been reached regarding India's reprocessing rights and the consequences of a nuclear test. India, it seems, will have the option to seek deals with other nations should relations with the US sour over supplies of nuclear fuel and technology.

However, Washington has benefited in the form of defense contracts from India. In May, India and the US finalized a Hercules transport plane deal worth more than $1 billion. This is the single largest Indian military purchase to date from the US.

New Delhi allowed the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Nimitz to dock at Chennai early last month. US companies, meanwhile, are considered to be the front-runners for the biggest single jet-fighter contract that India plans to sign for close to $10 billion.

Energy and arms always makes a heady combination. The US attack on Iraq was never about Saddam Hussein only.


Siddharth Srivastava is a New Delhi-based journalist.

(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved)

Labels: India

  ¶ 10:58 AM 0 comments

  印度爭奪能源新策：與武器進出口暗掛勾 撰文 Siddharth Srivastava, 亚洲时报
2007/08/08, 週三

新德里 --- 印度的能源需求與武器進出口兩者，正日益緊密地結合在一起。在好幾次全球能源競標中輸給中國之後，印度開始實行這套秘而不宣的戰略──把能源需求與武器出口或採購合同掛勾。

一名不願公開姓名的高級政府官員說，“政府有一種想法，那就是把軍事關係與獲得能源資源聯繫起來。很明顯，我們只能悄悄利用這種關係，因為一旦說破就可能造成負面影響。”

據消息人士透露，印度正在中亞使用這種策略，它在前蘇聯加盟共和國塔吉克的空軍基地，將在年底投入使用。印度軍隊以前參加過國際人道主義援助，但塔吉克基地將是印度在海外的首個軍事設施。

靠近塔吉克首都杜尚別的艾尼空軍基地（Ayni Air Base），預計將於本月竣工，於今年12月投入使用，而新德里打算在此至少派駐12架米格—29戰機。印度還提出了重建塔吉克的Varzob-1水電站。

觀察家說，印度這些舉措背後的動力，來自對中亞地區豐富的天然氣資源感興趣。另一個主要原因是，該地區靠近有主權爭議的查謨和克什米爾地區(Jammu and Kashmir)，印度欲藉此建立一個更嚴密的情報收集網絡，監視當地的激進穆斯林組織。

同樣，在非洲，印度能源公司已把獲得能源與提供其它基建支持掛勾。

印度在非洲和俄羅斯努力尋找能源的同時，也總想著開發中亞的油氣資源。然而，由於受到地理和政治因素的限制，印度進入該地區還存在問題。

新德里正想方設法進入哈薩克，考慮興建一些大型的工程，例如連接伊朗、阿富汗、巴基斯坦、印度的天然氣管道，以及土庫曼、阿富汗、巴基斯坦、印度的天然氣管道。其中，土庫曼管道不牽涉到伊朗或美國，因此不存在地緣政治問題。

不過，由於塔利班等激進組織控制著阿富汗大片地區，這些地區極有可能存在嚴峻的安全問題，南韓人質最近被綁架並被殺就是例證。

在這種情況下，在塔吉克建軍事基地可以提供額外的影響力，以及重要的情報信息，讓印度更密切地注意中亞地區出產能源的地方。與此同時，也可給中亞地區的管道網絡提供安全保護。

當下，伊朗與印度在能源領域漸行漸遠，新德里要另找新的能源中心。一些人說，這是因為華盛頓堅持要求新德里，在所有能源問題上遠離德黑蘭。

上周，伊朗駐印度能源和經濟顧問卡塔克（Rakteem Katakey）說，伊朗可以把天然氣出口到世界各地，這要取決於印度想要得到什麼。伊朗還通知印度國家石油與天然氣有限公司的海外投資子公司ONGC Videsh，其簽署的開發亞達瓦蘭(Yadavaran)油田和朱費伊爾(Jufeyr)油田的備忘錄已經到期。因此，印度與伊朗簽訂的液化天然氣協議（關係著那些油田的開發）也前景不明。

印度、伊朗和巴基斯坦三國，一直就造價75億美元的伊朗—阿富汗—巴基斯坦—印度天然氣管道，試圖解決有關定價、過境費用和安全等問題。德黑蘭表示，計劃到2011年給印度供應天然氣。不過，在協議最終敲定之前，一切都不能肯定。

事實上，最近事情又出現新變數，印度和巴基斯坦說它們不同意德黑蘭提交的協議草案。德黑蘭提出，它有權在合同期間隨時調整天然氣價格。上周在德黑蘭訪問的印度石油部長迪歐拉(Murli Deora)說，伊朗的提議是不公平的。新德里早就不滿德黑蘭要求重新談判早前達成的液化天然氣協議價格。

另一方面，印度東邊鄰居的軍事重要性，也日益顯現出來。總部設在英國的國際特赦組織最近援引“可靠消息人士”的話說，新德里打算向緬甸出售軍用直升機，這將打破歐盟對這個軍人當政的國家的武器禁運。

國際特赫說，印度提議向緬出售的先進輕型直升機(Advanced Light Helicopter)，其零件要從英國、德國、法國、瑞典、意大利和比利時進口，因此可能“間接”違反歐盟對緬甸實施了近20年的武器禁運。

最近中國搶先一步與緬甸達成油氣開發合作協議，但如果可以，印度仍想獲得緬甸豐富的天然氣資源。新德里的想法似乎是，除了從經濟因素方面考慮購買該國天然氣外，印度必須擴大戰略支持，包括給緬甸供應武器，這才有可能在跟中國的競爭中佔據上風。

另一個與印度在防務和能源兩方面的關係交織在一起的國家是美國。

印美民用核合作協議已塵埃落定，這應該為印度獲得發電用的核燃料掃清障礙。美印雙方似乎已就印度再加工核燃料的權利和核試後果等兩大問題，達成諒解備忘錄。如果與美國在核燃料和技術供應方面的關係惡化，印度似乎還可選擇與其它國家達成協議。

雖然印美核合作協議還未正式實施，華盛頓已經得益，拿到了印度的國防合同。今年5月，印度與美國就價值10多億美元的大力神(Hercules)運輸機最終達成協議。這是迄今為止印度在美國的最大一次單筆軍購行動。

上月初，新德里准許美國核動力航母尼米茲號，進入欽奈港。與此同時，外界認為美國公司最有希望拿到印度價值將近100億美元的最大單筆戰機採購合同。

能源和軍備總是糾纏在一起。美國攻擊伊拉克，絕不僅僅是因為薩達姆一人。

編譯：楊柳

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