金闲评
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Shenzhen nuzzles closer to Hong Kong
By Olivia Chung, Asia Times Online
Dec 7, 2007
HONG KONG - After plenty of talk about Shenzhen and neighboring Hong Kong joining hands to form a twin-city metropolis, Shenzhen has incorporated the idea into its development blueprint for the period to 2020. This is the first time the booming city in China’s Guangdong province has taken economic integration with Hong Kong into consideration in its long-term development plan.
The draft blueprint, drawn up in late November and to be sent to the State Council, China’s cabinet, for approval, says Shenzhen and Hong Kong should turn themselves into a twin-city financial, trade and shipping hub.
One of the priorities set in the blueprint is to build a common capital market, with Shenzhen’s financial institutions going international through Hong Kong while more financial institutions in the former British territory could set up branches in Shenzhen as their springboard to expand business in the mainland. The two stock exchanges could cooperate more closely to attract dual-listing of enterprises home and overseas, the plan suggests.
As rosy a picture as the blueprint depicts, analysts say there are heavy barriers to be overcome before the plan can be actually executed. For example, the Chinese currency is still not fully convertible, which greatly restricts capital flow between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Legal systems in the two places are also radically different, so to build a common capital market some common legal basis must be established.
Nevertheless, the blueprint indicates that a substantial step has been taken toward this long-term goal.
Officials and academics in Shenzhen have advocated integration with Hong Kong for many years, though it was not until August this year that Hong Kong reacted positively, when a report by the Bauhinia Foundation Research Center, a Hong Kong think tank seen as closely linked to the government, said a Shenzhen-Hong Kong metropolis could outperform London, Paris, Chicago or Los Angeles by 2020.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang also said in October in his policy address that the territory will go all out to develop the Shenzhen-Hong Kong twin-city international metropolis.
The Shenzhen blueprint focuses on six major areas - improving co-operation on financial systems, building a Shen(zhen)-(Hong) Kong Innovation Rim, improving cross-border transportation, and enhancing co-operation with Hong Kong in the high-technology and high-end service industries.
To build the Shen-Kong metropolis, the Shenzhen government reiterated in its newly released draft regulation on developing the financial industry that it was willing to become ''the backyard'' of Hong Kong as the region’s international financial hub. The draft regulation was aimed at boosting Shenzhen’s financial sector into ''a strategic pillar industry'' of the city after high-technology.
According to the draft, Shenzhen will create a multi-tier capital market, including a main board, a small and medium-sized enterprise board, a growth enterprise market, an over-the-counter market and a bond market.The draft also said the development of Shenzhen’s financial market must be based on financial co-operation between Hong Kong and Shenzhen with the ultimate aim of it becoming ''an organic part of the Shen-Kong metropolis and international financial center'', as the backyard of Hong Kong as an international financial hub.
''The gradual realization of a collaboration of financial industries of Shenzhen and Hong Kong is not only a domestic demand for innovation for Shenzhen financial industry, but also an aspiration to become an international financial center by Hong Kong, which cannot achieve it on its own,'' the draft said.
''With its condition, Hong Kong, on its own, finds it very hard to become a world-level financial center,'' Julia Leung Fung-yee, executive director (external) of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said during a meeting in Hong Kong with Tang Jie, vice director of the Standing Committee of the Shenzhen Municipal People’s Congress. ''Only if it enters into an alliance with the mainland, can it achieve its goal with a combined scale and efficiency.''
The creation of a mega-metropolis would be a win-win situation for the cities, according to Zhang Yuge, a senior researcher with the China Development Institute, a Shenzhen-based non-government think tank. Covering 3,200 square kilometers and with a combined population of about 20 million, ``it could improve infrastructure, trade and finance'' despite the different political systems agreed to under the ''one country, two systems'' policy that undwrote the 1997 handover by Britain of Hong Kong to Beijing.
Tuan Chyau, professor of department of decision sciences and managerial economics of Chinese University of Hong Kong, said that faced the risk of being marginalized, Hong Kong should work for closer economic co-operation with Shenzhen so the two cities could complement each other with their peculiar competitive advantages.
The mainland, with its runaway development, is not only taking on Hong Kong as a center for logistics and trade; it is attracting Hong Kong’s business and talent.
In the past, Hong Kong acted as a springboard to attract international investors to China and as a fund-raising center for mainland companies. Now international firms can go directly to the mainland and large Chinese state-owned companies are encouraged to list at home following the successful dual-listing cases of the mainland companies such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in the A-share market on the mainland and the H-share market in Hong Kong.
''A-share companies'' refers to those domestically listed firms, which foreign investors are not allowed to buy. H-share companies are incorporated on the mainland and approved for listing in Hong Kong.
The mainland’s strong economic growth and successful reform that has led to the flotation of state holdings has been augmented by a flood of funds into Shanghai and Shenzhen’s stock exchanges, helping to create conditions that could lead to overseas-registered mainland companies, the red chips, and even foreign companies listing in the mainland. At present, the Chinese government is considering changing listing regulations to let red chips take this path.
One reason behind the red chips’ eagerness to return home to raise more funds is the high valuations A shares are generating. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares and hard-currency B shares, surged 176% in the 12 months to mid-November, with A shares trading at an average price of more than 40 times their earnings and leaving their H-share counterparts trailing at big discounts.
State-owned enterprises including red chips now account for a bigger percentage of the volume at the stock exchange of Hong Kong than local blue chips. A possible single listing in the A-share market by state-owned companies or return of the red chips to list in Shanghai could trigger an exodus of funds from Hong Kong that could destabilize growth in the territory.
By the end of November last year, 85 red chips with a combined market value of HK$2 trillion were listed in Hong Kong, accounting for 21% of the exchange’s overall market value.
Some commenators have suggested a merger between the Hong Kong and Shenzhen exchanges, a move soon declined by Hong Kong academics and officials, who pointed out that the Hong Kong stock exchange is a listed company while the stock exchange of Shenzhen is owned by the Chinese government.
Instead, a single trading and listing platform jointly established by the Hong Kong exchange and the exchanges of Shanghai and Shenzhen had recently been suggested, in which A and H shares could be freely traded on the three exchanges although they have different shareholding and company structures.
That would touch on the issues of the convertibility of the yuan and restrictions imposed by the mainland on the mobility of users and providers of financial services, Tuan said.
''Besides, there are many technical issues to deal with, for example the listing, settlement and regulatory regimes of the three exchanges are different; investors inside and outside the mainland are also not allowed to trade in each other’s markets,'' he said.
Even so, if a single market between Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges is establshed, it could become one of the most actively traded markets in the world, he said.
According to the South China Morning Post, the combined market turnover of Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen reached US$1.03 trillion in the first seven months of the year, trailing the New York Stock Exchange (US$12.95 trillion), Nasdaq (US$7.03 trillion), London (US$4.26 trillion) and Tokyo (US$3.61 trillion).
In what was seen as a step towards moving forward the concept of closer links between the area's exchanges, the Hong Kong government recently increased its shareholding in the city's exchange to 5.88% from 4.41% to become the single largest shareholder while continuing to talk with the mainland about the idea.
The victory of the pro-democracy camp in December 2 by-elections in Hong Kong added a twist to the debate, with Anson Chan, a passionate advocate for democracy, winning a seat in the city's Legislative Council. Chan, who held the city's second-highest post, and other senior officials trained by the British administration, were opposed to closer economic ties with the mainland when the subject was raised a couple of years before the 1997 handover.
In anticipation of the nod from the state council, Shenzhen Mayor Xu Zongheng is scheduled to visit Hong Kong before the end of the year to flesh out the proposed merger. But Hong Kong observers say the scheme would require a meticulous scrutiny in order to win public backing.
"Economic integration is certainly most welcome but Hong Kong people don't want to see any political synergies," says Joseph Cheng, professor of political science at the City University of Hong Kong. "Political integration could endanger Hong Kong's rule of law and could flatten our lifestyles".
Other researchers say Hong Kong and Shenzhen have moved towards a unified management in areas like shipping, for example, even before a formal proposal has been approved.
"We already have a merger in a sense," says Michael DeGolyer of the Hong Kong Baptist University who works on the Hong Kong Transition Project examining the changes since the handover. "Hong Kong and Shenzhen ports are in fact merged because they are owned by the same company."
While he believes Hong Kong people tend to see the proposed integration in a constructive way - as a unified solution to common problems like pollution - he is emphatic they would not tolerate any imposed changes to the existing political system.
Olivia Chung is a senior Asia times Online reporter. With additional reporting from Inter Press Service.
Dec 7, 2007
HONG KONG - After plenty of talk about Shenzhen and neighboring Hong Kong joining hands to form a twin-city metropolis, Shenzhen has incorporated the idea into its development blueprint for the period to 2020. This is the first time the booming city in China’s Guangdong province has taken economic integration with Hong Kong into consideration in its long-term development plan.
The draft blueprint, drawn up in late November and to be sent to the State Council, China’s cabinet, for approval, says Shenzhen and Hong Kong should turn themselves into a twin-city financial, trade and shipping hub.
One of the priorities set in the blueprint is to build a common capital market, with Shenzhen’s financial institutions going international through Hong Kong while more financial institutions in the former British territory could set up branches in Shenzhen as their springboard to expand business in the mainland. The two stock exchanges could cooperate more closely to attract dual-listing of enterprises home and overseas, the plan suggests.
As rosy a picture as the blueprint depicts, analysts say there are heavy barriers to be overcome before the plan can be actually executed. For example, the Chinese currency is still not fully convertible, which greatly restricts capital flow between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Legal systems in the two places are also radically different, so to build a common capital market some common legal basis must be established.
Nevertheless, the blueprint indicates that a substantial step has been taken toward this long-term goal.
Officials and academics in Shenzhen have advocated integration with Hong Kong for many years, though it was not until August this year that Hong Kong reacted positively, when a report by the Bauhinia Foundation Research Center, a Hong Kong think tank seen as closely linked to the government, said a Shenzhen-Hong Kong metropolis could outperform London, Paris, Chicago or Los Angeles by 2020.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang also said in October in his policy address that the territory will go all out to develop the Shenzhen-Hong Kong twin-city international metropolis.
The Shenzhen blueprint focuses on six major areas - improving co-operation on financial systems, building a Shen(zhen)-(Hong) Kong Innovation Rim, improving cross-border transportation, and enhancing co-operation with Hong Kong in the high-technology and high-end service industries.
To build the Shen-Kong metropolis, the Shenzhen government reiterated in its newly released draft regulation on developing the financial industry that it was willing to become ''the backyard'' of Hong Kong as the region’s international financial hub. The draft regulation was aimed at boosting Shenzhen’s financial sector into ''a strategic pillar industry'' of the city after high-technology.
According to the draft, Shenzhen will create a multi-tier capital market, including a main board, a small and medium-sized enterprise board, a growth enterprise market, an over-the-counter market and a bond market.The draft also said the development of Shenzhen’s financial market must be based on financial co-operation between Hong Kong and Shenzhen with the ultimate aim of it becoming ''an organic part of the Shen-Kong metropolis and international financial center'', as the backyard of Hong Kong as an international financial hub.
''The gradual realization of a collaboration of financial industries of Shenzhen and Hong Kong is not only a domestic demand for innovation for Shenzhen financial industry, but also an aspiration to become an international financial center by Hong Kong, which cannot achieve it on its own,'' the draft said.
''With its condition, Hong Kong, on its own, finds it very hard to become a world-level financial center,'' Julia Leung Fung-yee, executive director (external) of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said during a meeting in Hong Kong with Tang Jie, vice director of the Standing Committee of the Shenzhen Municipal People’s Congress. ''Only if it enters into an alliance with the mainland, can it achieve its goal with a combined scale and efficiency.''
The creation of a mega-metropolis would be a win-win situation for the cities, according to Zhang Yuge, a senior researcher with the China Development Institute, a Shenzhen-based non-government think tank. Covering 3,200 square kilometers and with a combined population of about 20 million, ``it could improve infrastructure, trade and finance'' despite the different political systems agreed to under the ''one country, two systems'' policy that undwrote the 1997 handover by Britain of Hong Kong to Beijing.
Tuan Chyau, professor of department of decision sciences and managerial economics of Chinese University of Hong Kong, said that faced the risk of being marginalized, Hong Kong should work for closer economic co-operation with Shenzhen so the two cities could complement each other with their peculiar competitive advantages.
The mainland, with its runaway development, is not only taking on Hong Kong as a center for logistics and trade; it is attracting Hong Kong’s business and talent.
In the past, Hong Kong acted as a springboard to attract international investors to China and as a fund-raising center for mainland companies. Now international firms can go directly to the mainland and large Chinese state-owned companies are encouraged to list at home following the successful dual-listing cases of the mainland companies such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in the A-share market on the mainland and the H-share market in Hong Kong.
''A-share companies'' refers to those domestically listed firms, which foreign investors are not allowed to buy. H-share companies are incorporated on the mainland and approved for listing in Hong Kong.
The mainland’s strong economic growth and successful reform that has led to the flotation of state holdings has been augmented by a flood of funds into Shanghai and Shenzhen’s stock exchanges, helping to create conditions that could lead to overseas-registered mainland companies, the red chips, and even foreign companies listing in the mainland. At present, the Chinese government is considering changing listing regulations to let red chips take this path.
One reason behind the red chips’ eagerness to return home to raise more funds is the high valuations A shares are generating. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares and hard-currency B shares, surged 176% in the 12 months to mid-November, with A shares trading at an average price of more than 40 times their earnings and leaving their H-share counterparts trailing at big discounts.
State-owned enterprises including red chips now account for a bigger percentage of the volume at the stock exchange of Hong Kong than local blue chips. A possible single listing in the A-share market by state-owned companies or return of the red chips to list in Shanghai could trigger an exodus of funds from Hong Kong that could destabilize growth in the territory.
By the end of November last year, 85 red chips with a combined market value of HK$2 trillion were listed in Hong Kong, accounting for 21% of the exchange’s overall market value.
Some commenators have suggested a merger between the Hong Kong and Shenzhen exchanges, a move soon declined by Hong Kong academics and officials, who pointed out that the Hong Kong stock exchange is a listed company while the stock exchange of Shenzhen is owned by the Chinese government.
Instead, a single trading and listing platform jointly established by the Hong Kong exchange and the exchanges of Shanghai and Shenzhen had recently been suggested, in which A and H shares could be freely traded on the three exchanges although they have different shareholding and company structures.
That would touch on the issues of the convertibility of the yuan and restrictions imposed by the mainland on the mobility of users and providers of financial services, Tuan said.
''Besides, there are many technical issues to deal with, for example the listing, settlement and regulatory regimes of the three exchanges are different; investors inside and outside the mainland are also not allowed to trade in each other’s markets,'' he said.
Even so, if a single market between Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges is establshed, it could become one of the most actively traded markets in the world, he said.
According to the South China Morning Post, the combined market turnover of Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen reached US$1.03 trillion in the first seven months of the year, trailing the New York Stock Exchange (US$12.95 trillion), Nasdaq (US$7.03 trillion), London (US$4.26 trillion) and Tokyo (US$3.61 trillion).
In what was seen as a step towards moving forward the concept of closer links between the area's exchanges, the Hong Kong government recently increased its shareholding in the city's exchange to 5.88% from 4.41% to become the single largest shareholder while continuing to talk with the mainland about the idea.
The victory of the pro-democracy camp in December 2 by-elections in Hong Kong added a twist to the debate, with Anson Chan, a passionate advocate for democracy, winning a seat in the city's Legislative Council. Chan, who held the city's second-highest post, and other senior officials trained by the British administration, were opposed to closer economic ties with the mainland when the subject was raised a couple of years before the 1997 handover.
In anticipation of the nod from the state council, Shenzhen Mayor Xu Zongheng is scheduled to visit Hong Kong before the end of the year to flesh out the proposed merger. But Hong Kong observers say the scheme would require a meticulous scrutiny in order to win public backing.
"Economic integration is certainly most welcome but Hong Kong people don't want to see any political synergies," says Joseph Cheng, professor of political science at the City University of Hong Kong. "Political integration could endanger Hong Kong's rule of law and could flatten our lifestyles".
Other researchers say Hong Kong and Shenzhen have moved towards a unified management in areas like shipping, for example, even before a formal proposal has been approved.
"We already have a merger in a sense," says Michael DeGolyer of the Hong Kong Baptist University who works on the Hong Kong Transition Project examining the changes since the handover. "Hong Kong and Shenzhen ports are in fact merged because they are owned by the same company."
While he believes Hong Kong people tend to see the proposed integration in a constructive way - as a unified solution to common problems like pollution - he is emphatic they would not tolerate any imposed changes to the existing political system.
Olivia Chung is a senior Asia times Online reporter. With additional reporting from Inter Press Service.
Labels: Hong Kong
¶ 1:12 AM 1 comments
香港深圳融合：兩地建立共同資本市場？
撰文 Olivia Chung, 亞洲時報
2007/12/10, 週一
香港---11月21日，深圳公佈了《深圳市城市總體規劃（2007-2020）》草案，首次將與香港共建國際大都會的目標，列入長期發展的宏圖中。這標誌著，在一輪又一輪的探討之後，深圳終於開始向建立深港大都會的目標邁進了。草案說，深圳將與香港一起努力，將兩地建設成一個國際性的金融、貿易和航運中心。該方案將上報國務院審批。
在未來發展藍圖中，建立共同的資本市場，是深圳與香港面臨的首要任務。草案說，將積極探索深圳金融機構通過香港進入國際金融市場，同時繼續吸引香港金融機構在深圳設立分支機構，作為進入國內金融市場的跳板。草案還建議，兩地的證券交易所可通過密切合作，吸引海內外企業在內地與香港同時上市。
分析人士認為，要實現草案所描述的光明前景，需要克服重重困難。例如，現時人民幣仍不能自由兌換，而中央仍嚴格控制著深圳與香港之間的資金流動。再加上兩地截然不同的法律體系，要想建立一個共同點資本市場，必須先構建一個統一的法律基礎。
儘管如此，草案的出臺已表明，深圳已向著這一長期目標，邁出了第一步。
多年來，深圳官員與學者一直主張加快與香港的融合。今年8月，香港方面也終於做出了積極回應：與香港政府關係密切的智庫“智經研究中心”率先發表了《建構港深都會》的研究報告，稱港深2020年的GDP，有望超越倫敦和巴黎，成為全球僅次於紐約和東京的超級大都會。
10月，香港特首曾蔭權也在《2007—2008年施政報告》中稱，“香港必須加強與中央及內地省市的整合，並全力推動港深共建大都會。”
在加強深港合作方面，深圳的藍本提出了六方面目標：一、共同構建世界級都市區；二、完善深港金融合作機制；三、積極建設深港創新圈；四、加強與香港在高新技術產業和高端服務業的合作；五、改善通關環境和跨境交通；六、加強兩地在生態環境治理保護和監督管理方面的協作。
為建設深港大都會，深圳政府強調甘願做“綠葉”。在提及發展金融產業時，草案寫道，深圳願為香港這個國際金融中心扮演“後院”的角色。草案的目標之一是，將金融業發展成繼高科技之後，深圳另一項戰略性支柱產業。
根據草案，深圳將建設一個多層次資本交易市場，包括主板市場、中小企業板市場、創業板市場、場外交易市場和債券市場。草案指出，只有與香港加強金融合作，深圳的金融市場才能得以發展，才能成為“港深大都會及世界級國際金融中心的有機組成部分”。
草案說：“逐漸實現兩地金融業融合，不僅是為了滿足深圳改善金融業的國內要求，更是香港提升其國際金融中心地位的迫切需求。”
香港金融管理局助理總裁梁鳳儀說：“從香港自身條件看，憑一己之力很難成為世界金融中心。只有聯合內地，合兩地規模、效率，才能打造國際金融中心。”她是在與深圳市人大常委會副主任唐傑會面時，發表這番話的。
深圳非官方智庫“綜合開發研究院”（CDI）的資深研究員張玉閣認為，共建大都會對港深兩地來講是個雙贏。實現深港一體化後，它的總面積將達到3,200平方公里，總人口2,000萬左右，將大大改善雙方的基礎設施、貿易、金融條件，儘管深圳在政治體制上與實行“一國兩制”的香港有所不同。
香港中文大學決策科學與企業經濟學系教授段樵（Tuan Chyau）說，面臨被邊緣化風險的香港，應加強與深圳的經濟合作，才能實現雙方的優勢互補。
經濟發展飛速的大陸，不僅把香港視為物流與貿易中心，還在不遺餘力地吸引香港人才與企業。過去，香港是大陸吸引國際投資者的跳板，為內地企業的資金募集地。如今，跨國公司可以直接投資內地；在中國工商銀行等企業以“A+H”成功上市後，中央更是轉而鼓勵大型國企直接在內地上市。
在持續高增長和企業成功改制的刺激下，滬深兩市的上市公司數目大幅增加，也引發巨量資金流入中國的股市，為紅籌股及海外企業在國內上市創造了必要條件。目前，中國正考慮修改上市制度，為紅籌股回歸A股鋪路。
國內股市的高估值，是紅籌股急於回歸A股的主要原因。截止11月中旬，上證綜合指數在過去12個月裏飆升了176個百分點；A股的平均市盈率達到了40倍，令相對的H股價格出現了很大的折讓。
國企股（包括紅籌股在內）在香港股市的比重，遠遠超過了本地的藍籌股。截止去年11月底，共有85支紅籌股在香港掛牌，市值達到了2萬億港元，佔總市值的 21%。中央推出國企僅在內地上市及鼓勵紅籌股回歸的政策，無疑將引發香港股市的資金大量外流，從而動搖其經濟增長的穩定性。
有一些評論員說，應將香港與深圳兩地的股市合併為一，但立即遭到了香港學術界與政界人士的反對。他們認為，香港證交所是個上市公司，深市卻為中國政府所有。
因此，又有人最近建議香港、上海和深圳三家交易所，可在維持各自的股權和組織結構不變的情況下，共同開發一個交易和上市平臺，讓A股和H股企業可同時在三家交易所上市，而投資者則可自由選擇其中一個市場進行交易。
但段樵認為，這將觸及人民幣自由兌換，以及大陸限制投資者與金融機構流動的問題。他說：“除此之外，還有考慮不少技術難題。比如，三方的上市、結算和監管體系各有不同，A股與H股的投資者也不能在對方市場中買賣。”
不過，他指出，一旦大陸與香港建立起一個單一的股票市場，這有可能成為全球最活躍的交易市場之一。
據《南華早報》報道，香港、上海、深圳三地股市的交易額，在今年前7個月達到了1.03萬億美元，緊隨紐約交易所（12.95萬億）、納斯達克（7.03萬億）、倫敦（4.26萬億）和東京（3.61萬億）之後。
9月7日，香港特區政府大舉增持港交所股權至5.88%，成為第一大股東。分析人士認為，這或許是大陸與香港兩地通過置換來掌握對方交易所戰略股份的第一步棋。
在被香港政壇形容為世紀之戰的立法會港島區補選中，被喻為泛民主派代言人的前政務司司長陳方安生取得了最終勝利。然而，這對深港大融合未必是個好消息。在九七回歸之前，擔任政府高官的她與其他親英官員，曾堅決反對加強與大陸的經濟聯繫。
深圳的草案已通過了建設部審批，料將獲得國務院的支持。下月中旬，深圳市長許宗衡將率政府代表團訪問香港，有望簽署包括關於“深港共建國際大都會”、深港創新圈、基礎設施建設等在內的多項協議。觀察家表示，香港政府需認真審議“港深大都會”方案，才能贏得香港市民的支持。
香港城市大學政治學教授鄭宇碩說：“香港市民當然無任歡迎加強與內地的經濟融合，但不希望看到任何政治層面的變動，因為這將危及香港的法制，衝擊他們現有的生活方式。”
其他學者認為，在正式協議達成之前，香港與深圳已在船運等領域向著一體化管理的目標邁進。
“我們已感受到了某種意義上的合併，”香港浸會大學政治及國際關係學教授戴高禮（Michael DeGolyer）說，“香港與深圳的港口早已合併了，因為它們由同一間公司控制著。”他是香港過渡期研究計劃的成員，研究香港回歸後的種種變化。
他認為，儘管香港人會從建設性的角度去審視“港深大融合”（如可為污染等問題提供一體化解決方案），但他們絕不會容忍目前的政治體制發生任何變化。
譯者：章彊
2007/12/10, 週一
香港---11月21日，深圳公佈了《深圳市城市總體規劃（2007-2020）》草案，首次將與香港共建國際大都會的目標，列入長期發展的宏圖中。這標誌著，在一輪又一輪的探討之後，深圳終於開始向建立深港大都會的目標邁進了。草案說，深圳將與香港一起努力，將兩地建設成一個國際性的金融、貿易和航運中心。該方案將上報國務院審批。
在未來發展藍圖中，建立共同的資本市場，是深圳與香港面臨的首要任務。草案說，將積極探索深圳金融機構通過香港進入國際金融市場，同時繼續吸引香港金融機構在深圳設立分支機構，作為進入國內金融市場的跳板。草案還建議，兩地的證券交易所可通過密切合作，吸引海內外企業在內地與香港同時上市。
分析人士認為，要實現草案所描述的光明前景，需要克服重重困難。例如，現時人民幣仍不能自由兌換，而中央仍嚴格控制著深圳與香港之間的資金流動。再加上兩地截然不同的法律體系，要想建立一個共同點資本市場，必須先構建一個統一的法律基礎。
儘管如此，草案的出臺已表明，深圳已向著這一長期目標，邁出了第一步。
多年來，深圳官員與學者一直主張加快與香港的融合。今年8月，香港方面也終於做出了積極回應：與香港政府關係密切的智庫“智經研究中心”率先發表了《建構港深都會》的研究報告，稱港深2020年的GDP，有望超越倫敦和巴黎，成為全球僅次於紐約和東京的超級大都會。
10月，香港特首曾蔭權也在《2007—2008年施政報告》中稱，“香港必須加強與中央及內地省市的整合，並全力推動港深共建大都會。”
在加強深港合作方面，深圳的藍本提出了六方面目標：一、共同構建世界級都市區；二、完善深港金融合作機制；三、積極建設深港創新圈；四、加強與香港在高新技術產業和高端服務業的合作；五、改善通關環境和跨境交通；六、加強兩地在生態環境治理保護和監督管理方面的協作。
為建設深港大都會，深圳政府強調甘願做“綠葉”。在提及發展金融產業時，草案寫道，深圳願為香港這個國際金融中心扮演“後院”的角色。草案的目標之一是，將金融業發展成繼高科技之後，深圳另一項戰略性支柱產業。
根據草案，深圳將建設一個多層次資本交易市場，包括主板市場、中小企業板市場、創業板市場、場外交易市場和債券市場。草案指出，只有與香港加強金融合作，深圳的金融市場才能得以發展，才能成為“港深大都會及世界級國際金融中心的有機組成部分”。
草案說：“逐漸實現兩地金融業融合，不僅是為了滿足深圳改善金融業的國內要求，更是香港提升其國際金融中心地位的迫切需求。”
香港金融管理局助理總裁梁鳳儀說：“從香港自身條件看，憑一己之力很難成為世界金融中心。只有聯合內地，合兩地規模、效率，才能打造國際金融中心。”她是在與深圳市人大常委會副主任唐傑會面時，發表這番話的。
深圳非官方智庫“綜合開發研究院”（CDI）的資深研究員張玉閣認為，共建大都會對港深兩地來講是個雙贏。實現深港一體化後，它的總面積將達到3,200平方公里，總人口2,000萬左右，將大大改善雙方的基礎設施、貿易、金融條件，儘管深圳在政治體制上與實行“一國兩制”的香港有所不同。
香港中文大學決策科學與企業經濟學系教授段樵（Tuan Chyau）說，面臨被邊緣化風險的香港，應加強與深圳的經濟合作，才能實現雙方的優勢互補。
經濟發展飛速的大陸，不僅把香港視為物流與貿易中心，還在不遺餘力地吸引香港人才與企業。過去，香港是大陸吸引國際投資者的跳板，為內地企業的資金募集地。如今，跨國公司可以直接投資內地；在中國工商銀行等企業以“A+H”成功上市後，中央更是轉而鼓勵大型國企直接在內地上市。
在持續高增長和企業成功改制的刺激下，滬深兩市的上市公司數目大幅增加，也引發巨量資金流入中國的股市，為紅籌股及海外企業在國內上市創造了必要條件。目前，中國正考慮修改上市制度，為紅籌股回歸A股鋪路。
國內股市的高估值，是紅籌股急於回歸A股的主要原因。截止11月中旬，上證綜合指數在過去12個月裏飆升了176個百分點；A股的平均市盈率達到了40倍，令相對的H股價格出現了很大的折讓。
國企股（包括紅籌股在內）在香港股市的比重，遠遠超過了本地的藍籌股。截止去年11月底，共有85支紅籌股在香港掛牌，市值達到了2萬億港元，佔總市值的 21%。中央推出國企僅在內地上市及鼓勵紅籌股回歸的政策，無疑將引發香港股市的資金大量外流，從而動搖其經濟增長的穩定性。
有一些評論員說，應將香港與深圳兩地的股市合併為一，但立即遭到了香港學術界與政界人士的反對。他們認為，香港證交所是個上市公司，深市卻為中國政府所有。
因此，又有人最近建議香港、上海和深圳三家交易所，可在維持各自的股權和組織結構不變的情況下，共同開發一個交易和上市平臺，讓A股和H股企業可同時在三家交易所上市，而投資者則可自由選擇其中一個市場進行交易。
但段樵認為，這將觸及人民幣自由兌換，以及大陸限制投資者與金融機構流動的問題。他說：“除此之外，還有考慮不少技術難題。比如，三方的上市、結算和監管體系各有不同，A股與H股的投資者也不能在對方市場中買賣。”
不過，他指出，一旦大陸與香港建立起一個單一的股票市場，這有可能成為全球最活躍的交易市場之一。
據《南華早報》報道，香港、上海、深圳三地股市的交易額，在今年前7個月達到了1.03萬億美元，緊隨紐約交易所（12.95萬億）、納斯達克（7.03萬億）、倫敦（4.26萬億）和東京（3.61萬億）之後。
9月7日，香港特區政府大舉增持港交所股權至5.88%，成為第一大股東。分析人士認為，這或許是大陸與香港兩地通過置換來掌握對方交易所戰略股份的第一步棋。
在被香港政壇形容為世紀之戰的立法會港島區補選中，被喻為泛民主派代言人的前政務司司長陳方安生取得了最終勝利。然而，這對深港大融合未必是個好消息。在九七回歸之前，擔任政府高官的她與其他親英官員，曾堅決反對加強與大陸的經濟聯繫。
深圳的草案已通過了建設部審批，料將獲得國務院的支持。下月中旬，深圳市長許宗衡將率政府代表團訪問香港，有望簽署包括關於“深港共建國際大都會”、深港創新圈、基礎設施建設等在內的多項協議。觀察家表示，香港政府需認真審議“港深大都會”方案，才能贏得香港市民的支持。
香港城市大學政治學教授鄭宇碩說：“香港市民當然無任歡迎加強與內地的經濟融合，但不希望看到任何政治層面的變動，因為這將危及香港的法制，衝擊他們現有的生活方式。”
其他學者認為，在正式協議達成之前，香港與深圳已在船運等領域向著一體化管理的目標邁進。
“我們已感受到了某種意義上的合併，”香港浸會大學政治及國際關係學教授戴高禮（Michael DeGolyer）說，“香港與深圳的港口早已合併了，因為它們由同一間公司控制著。”他是香港過渡期研究計劃的成員，研究香港回歸後的種種變化。
他認為，儘管香港人會從建設性的角度去審視“港深大融合”（如可為污染等問題提供一體化解決方案），但他們絕不會容忍目前的政治體制發生任何變化。
譯者：章彊
Labels: Hong Kong
¶ 1:11 AM 0 comments
Monday, December 03, 2007
邱立本﹕文化航母的最後勝利
2007年12月2日
亞洲周刊／中國要打造新的文化航母﹐超越“去中國化”逆流﹐也沖破“絕對權力絕對腐化”的惡浪。
航空母艦是一個權力符號。它是二十世紀海軍工藝的高峰與標志﹐改變了傳統海陸空三大軍種各自作戰的形態﹐凝聚三軍協同作戰的特色﹐讓航母成為一座流動的城堡﹐發揮戰爭奇襲的威力。
但到了二十一世紀﹐中國為何還沒有航母﹖這也成為不少中國人心中隱隱作痛之處﹐認為在海洋爭霸戰中失去優勢﹐也失去國際的權力符號。
很多國際軍事專家認為﹐中國其實早已具備制造航母的能力﹐但卻一直沒有像當年日本帝國海軍那樣﹐投入“航母競賽”的熱潮中﹐因為成也航母﹐敗也航母。巨大的流動堡壘﹐也會成為巨大的戰靶。日本在上世紀二十年代就率先研制航母﹐最後成為一九四一年偷襲珍珠港成功的秘密武器﹐但也埋下日本在中途島大戰中慘敗的伏筆。
因而在核子及衛星時代﹐中國的建軍方向似乎是發展核子潛艇及殺手衛星等“上天下海”的打擊力量﹐避免在航母爭霸戰中陷于“後來而不居上”的尷尬地位。
但中國最尷尬的其實是軟實力的爭霸戰﹐尤其在臺灣問題上。因為任何最先進﹑最龐然大物的航母﹐都比不上在文化海洋中的航母﹐可以成為全球華人心中的流動堡壘﹐既捍衛中華文化﹐又可以與普世價值接軌﹐贏得臺灣的民心﹐也可以贏得兩岸的和平統一。
這可能比現實的軍備競賽更困難﹐但一念之差﹐也可能會更容易﹐因為在“文化航母”的建設中﹐中國擁有前所未有的資源和機緣──一個快速增長與成熟的全球華人社會。當中國的經濟力與社會力與全球化的浪潮結合時﹐也與茁壯強大的各地華人結合。
臺商﹑港商及東南亞華商在中國大陸的貢獻﹐不僅提升了GDP﹐也改變了生活方式﹐而全球華人社會的創造力﹐都匯聚在中國的軟實力建設中﹐從金庸到龍應臺﹐ 從李敖到羅大佑﹐從鄧麗君到李安﹐他們的創意﹐都深印在神州大地民眾的心裡。在中國的心靈戰爭中﹐他們義無反顧地走在改革的最前線﹐提供精神的彈藥﹐去攻破那些過去認為牢不可破的堡壘。
對臺灣同胞來說﹐如果中國大陸的軟實力勝過了硬權力﹔如果中國大陸的自由﹑民主建設及法治能和今日的香港看齊﹐那麼兩岸的統一就可以水到渠成﹐臺獨的論述與實踐就會化解于無形﹔兩岸的軍備競賽也可以隨風而逝。
也就是說﹐文化的航母﹐最終必然擊敗軍事的航母﹔思想的武器﹐也最終可以鎮住物質的武器。
這也是中國在文化海洋中千帆並舉的時刻。它不僅是靠政治權力來建造一艘文化航母﹐而是依靠民間力量和全球華人社會打造更多的流動堡壘﹐超越“去中國化”的逆流﹐也沖破“絕對權力絕對腐化”的惡浪﹐航向中華民族的理想彼岸。■
亞洲周刊／中國要打造新的文化航母﹐超越“去中國化”逆流﹐也沖破“絕對權力絕對腐化”的惡浪。
航空母艦是一個權力符號。它是二十世紀海軍工藝的高峰與標志﹐改變了傳統海陸空三大軍種各自作戰的形態﹐凝聚三軍協同作戰的特色﹐讓航母成為一座流動的城堡﹐發揮戰爭奇襲的威力。
但到了二十一世紀﹐中國為何還沒有航母﹖這也成為不少中國人心中隱隱作痛之處﹐認為在海洋爭霸戰中失去優勢﹐也失去國際的權力符號。
很多國際軍事專家認為﹐中國其實早已具備制造航母的能力﹐但卻一直沒有像當年日本帝國海軍那樣﹐投入“航母競賽”的熱潮中﹐因為成也航母﹐敗也航母。巨大的流動堡壘﹐也會成為巨大的戰靶。日本在上世紀二十年代就率先研制航母﹐最後成為一九四一年偷襲珍珠港成功的秘密武器﹐但也埋下日本在中途島大戰中慘敗的伏筆。
因而在核子及衛星時代﹐中國的建軍方向似乎是發展核子潛艇及殺手衛星等“上天下海”的打擊力量﹐避免在航母爭霸戰中陷于“後來而不居上”的尷尬地位。
但中國最尷尬的其實是軟實力的爭霸戰﹐尤其在臺灣問題上。因為任何最先進﹑最龐然大物的航母﹐都比不上在文化海洋中的航母﹐可以成為全球華人心中的流動堡壘﹐既捍衛中華文化﹐又可以與普世價值接軌﹐贏得臺灣的民心﹐也可以贏得兩岸的和平統一。
這可能比現實的軍備競賽更困難﹐但一念之差﹐也可能會更容易﹐因為在“文化航母”的建設中﹐中國擁有前所未有的資源和機緣──一個快速增長與成熟的全球華人社會。當中國的經濟力與社會力與全球化的浪潮結合時﹐也與茁壯強大的各地華人結合。
臺商﹑港商及東南亞華商在中國大陸的貢獻﹐不僅提升了GDP﹐也改變了生活方式﹐而全球華人社會的創造力﹐都匯聚在中國的軟實力建設中﹐從金庸到龍應臺﹐ 從李敖到羅大佑﹐從鄧麗君到李安﹐他們的創意﹐都深印在神州大地民眾的心裡。在中國的心靈戰爭中﹐他們義無反顧地走在改革的最前線﹐提供精神的彈藥﹐去攻破那些過去認為牢不可破的堡壘。
對臺灣同胞來說﹐如果中國大陸的軟實力勝過了硬權力﹔如果中國大陸的自由﹑民主建設及法治能和今日的香港看齊﹐那麼兩岸的統一就可以水到渠成﹐臺獨的論述與實踐就會化解于無形﹔兩岸的軍備競賽也可以隨風而逝。
也就是說﹐文化的航母﹐最終必然擊敗軍事的航母﹔思想的武器﹐也最終可以鎮住物質的武器。
這也是中國在文化海洋中千帆並舉的時刻。它不僅是靠政治權力來建造一艘文化航母﹐而是依靠民間力量和全球華人社會打造更多的流動堡壘﹐超越“去中國化”的逆流﹐也沖破“絕對權力絕對腐化”的惡浪﹐航向中華民族的理想彼岸。■
Labels: Taiwan
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