海角七号…殖民地次文化阴影 文／许介鳞／台湾日本综合研究所所长

「恒春郡海角七号（番地）」是台湾在日本殖民统治下，所赐予的地址。

六十多年前，大日本帝国战败投降，日本人被迫从台湾遣返。一名返乡日本人所写的情书，从头到尾贯穿了「海角七号」的故事情节，不断的以日本语文朗诵情书旁白，充分显露日本人离开台湾的依依不舍，并以爱情、音乐和梦想衬托出来，触动了只「向钱看」而失去灵魂的台湾观众。

台湾真是没有文化或说文化水平不高的岛屿。在太平洋战争时期被驱使到战场的台湾人日本兵、军属、军夫，超过廿万人之多，他们都历经生离死别的创痛，竟找不到一个人能写出比日本人更扣人心弦的情书。台湾的影评，都在夸奖「海角七号」表现了「台湾的主体性」，解说这是国片的骄傲，台湾电影未来的希望。

海角七号的主题曲：「国境之南」，歌词：如果海会说话，如果风爱上砂，如果有些想念，遗忘在漫长的长假，我会聆听浪花，让风吹过头发…。

在大战前，「国境之南」指大日本帝国的国境南方台湾，而恒春又是台湾的最南顶端。大战后，日本作家村上春树，写「国境之南、太阳之西」，把国境之南描述为乌托邦。「国境之南」歌词，只是摹仿村上春树的作品「听风的歌」、「挪威的森林」等意境。村上春树本来是欧美文学的翻译作家，「海角七号」所朗诵的情书旁白，就是这样大量复制了村上春树的文艺腔，离台湾自己艺术创作的主体性，还遥远得很。

「海」片充斥搞笑、媚俗、本土、浪漫、音乐，加入摇滚乐等所有流行文化的「讨喜」元素，虽然能让观众看到台湾的下层社会的缤纷色彩与本地人「爱打拼」的生命力，但毕竟只不过是美日「次文化」的大拼盘，缺乏的是哲学思想与世界观。

乡土文学作家黄春明，他的「莎哟哪啦?再见」，还深刻地洞悉台湾殖民文化的残渣，他的作品会激起敌忾同仇的爱乡情操；但到了彻底拥抱美日「次文化」的今天，观看「海角七号」的现场，只激起一片搞笑的莫名笑声，却对本地人不文明的举动，没有任何的反省。

我不得不说，「海角七号」隐藏着日本殖民地文化的阴影。一封由日本人所捉刀杜撰的情书，以日本人的调调滔滔不绝地表露，对过去殖民地台湾的恋恋「乡愁」，其间参差了以日文唱的世界名曲，甚至终场的歌曲「野玫瑰」（德国、歌德词），还要重复以日文歌唱。台湾终究逃不了日本文化控制的魔手。

幸亏日本人在背后撑腰，又有台湾报纸、电视的加油宣传，「海角七号」的票房纪录，庆幸已破了一亿多元。纵使有一天在台湾岛内，到达七亿元的佳绩，恐怕落得陈水扁「海角七亿」的命运。阿扁所欠缺的，正是哲学思想和世界观，这样「发财梦」就会像肥皂泡沫的彩虹，那样地随风飘摇破灭。

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 4:16 AM 0 comments

  中華民國第12任總統馬英九先生就職演說 http://info.gio.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=36959&ctNode=3802
2008/5/20

各位友邦元首、各位貴賓、各位僑胞、各位鄉親父老、各位電視機前與網路上的朋友，大家早安，大家好！

一、二次政黨輪替的歷史意義

今年三月二十二日中華民國總統選舉，台灣人民投下了改變台灣未來的一票。今天，我們在這裡不是慶祝政黨或個人的勝利，而是一起見證，台灣的民主跨越了一個歷史性的里程碑。

我們的民主走過了一段顛簸的道路，現在終於有機會邁向成熟的坦途。在過去這段波折的歲月裡，人民對政府的信賴跌到谷底，政治操作扭曲了社會的核心價值，人民失去了經濟安全感，台灣的國際支持也受到空前的折損。值得慶幸的是，跟很多年輕的民主國家相比，我們民主成長的陣痛期並不算長，台灣人民卻能展現日趨成熟的民主風範，在關鍵時刻，作出了明確的抉擇：人民選擇政治清廉、經濟開放、族群和諧、兩岸和平與迎向未來。

尤其重要的是，台灣人民一同找回了善良、正直、勤奮、誠信、包容、進取這些傳統核心價值。這一段不平凡的民主成長經驗，讓我們獲得了「台灣是亞洲和世界民主的燈塔」的讚譽，值得所有台灣人引以為傲。顯然，中華民國已經成為一個受國際社會尊敬的民主國家。

不過，我們不會以此自滿。我們要進一步追求民主品質的提升與民主內涵的充實，讓台灣大步邁向「優質的民主」：在憲政主義的原則下，人權獲得保障、法治得到貫徹、司法獨立而公正、公民社會得以蓬勃發展。台灣的民主將不會再有非法監聽、選擇性辦案、以及政治干預媒體或選務機關的現象。這是我們共同的願景，也是我們下一階段民主改革的目標。

開票當天，全球有數億的華人透過電視與網路的直播，密切關注選舉的結果。因為台灣是全球唯一在中華文化土壤中，順利完成二次政黨輪替的民主範例，是全球華人寄以厚望的政治實驗。如果這個政治實驗能夠成功，我們將為全球華人的民主發展作出史無前例的貢獻，這是我們無法推卸的歷史責任。

二、新時代的任務

未來新政府最緊迫的任務，就是帶領台灣勇敢迎接全球化帶來的巨大挑戰。當前全球經濟正處於巨變之中，新興國家迅速崛起，我們必須快速提升台灣的國際競爭力，挽回過去流失的機會。當前全球經濟環境的不穩定，將是我們振興經濟必須克服的困難。但是，我們深信，只要我們的戰略正確、決心堅定，最後一定能達成我們的預定目標。

台灣是一個海島，開放則興盛、閉鎖則衰敗，這是歷史的鐵律。所以我們要堅持開放、大幅鬆綁、釋放民間的活力、發揮台灣的優勢；我們要引導企業立足台灣、聯結亞太、佈局全球；我們要協助勞工適應快速的科技變遷與產業調整；我們要用心培育我們的下一代，讓他們具有健全人格、公民素養、國際視野與終身學習的能力，並排除各種意識形態對教育的不當干擾。我們在回應全球化挑戰的同時，一定要維護弱勢群體的基本保障與發展機會，也一定要兼顧台灣與全球生態環境的永續經營。

新政府的另一項重要任務就是導正政治風氣，恢復人民對政府的信賴。我們將共同努力創造一個尊重人性、崇尚理性、保障多元、和解共生的環境。我們將促進族群以及新舊移民間的和諧，倡導政黨良性競爭，並充分尊重媒體的監督與新聞自由。

新政府將樹立廉能政治的新典範，嚴格要求官員的清廉與效能，並重建政商互動規範，防範金權政治的污染。我希望每一位行使公權力的公僕，都牢牢記住「權力使人腐化，絕對的權力使人絕對的腐化」這句著名的警語。我們將身體力行誠信政治，實踐國民黨「完全執政、完全負責」的政見。新政府所有施政都要從全民福祉的高度出發，超越黨派利益，貫徹行政中立。我們要讓政府不再是拖累社會進步的絆腳石，而是引領台灣進步的發動機。

我堅信，中華民國總統最神聖的職責就是守護憲法。在一個年輕的民主國家，遵憲與行憲比修憲更重要。身為總統，我的首要任務就是樹立憲法的權威與彰顯守憲的價值。我一定會以身作則，嚴守憲政分際，真正落實權責相符的憲政體制。我們一定要做到：政府全面依法行政，行政院依法對立法院負責，司法機關落實法治人權，考試院健全文官體制，監察院則糾彈違法失職。現在是我們建立優良憲政傳統的最好機會，我們一定要牢牢把握。

我們要讓台灣成為國際社會中受人敬重的成員。我們將以「尊嚴、自主、務實、靈活」作為處理對外關係與爭取國際空間的指導原則。中華民國將善盡其國際公民的責任，在維護自由經濟秩序、禁止核子擴散、防制全球暖化、遏阻恐怖活動、以及加強人道援助等全球議題上，承擔我們應負的責任。我們要積極參與亞太區域合作，進一步加強與主要貿易夥伴的經貿關係，全面融入東亞經濟整合，並對東亞的和平與繁榮作出積極貢獻。

我們要強化與美國這一位安全盟友及貿易夥伴的合作關係；我們也要珍惜邦交國的情誼，信守相互的承諾；我們更要與所有理念相通的國家和衷共濟，擴大合作。我們有防衛台灣安全的決心，將編列合理的國防預算，並採購必要的防衛性武器，以打造一支堅實的國防勁旅。追求兩岸和平與維持區域穩定，是我們不變的目標。台灣要成為和平的締造者，讓國際社會刮目相看。

英九由衷的盼望，海峽兩岸能抓住當前難得的歷史機遇，從今天開始，共同開啟和平共榮的歷史新頁。我們將以最符合台灣主流民意的「不統、不獨、不武」理念，在中華民國憲法架構下，維持台灣海峽現狀。一九九二年，兩岸曾達成「一中各表」的共識，隨後並完成多次協商，促成兩岸關係順利發展。英九在此重申，我們今後將繼續在「九二共識」的基礎上，儘早恢復協商，並秉持四月十二日在博鰲論壇中提出的「正視現實，開創未來；擱置爭議，追求雙贏」，尋求共同利益的平衡點。兩岸走向雙贏的起點，是經貿往來與文化交流的全面正常化，我們已經做好協商的準備。希望七月即將開始的週末包機直航與大陸觀光客來台，能讓兩岸關係跨入一個嶄新的時代。

未來我們也將與大陸就台灣國際空間與兩岸和平協議進行協商。台灣要安全、要繁榮、更要尊嚴！唯有台灣在國際上不被孤立，兩岸關係才能穩定向前發展。我們注意到胡錦濤先生最近三次有關兩岸關係的談話，分別是三月二十六日與美國布希總統談及「九二共識」、四月十二日在博鰲論壇提出「四個繼續」、以及四月二十九日主張兩岸要「建立互信、擱置爭議、求同存異、共創雙贏」，這些觀點都與我方的理念相當一致。因此，英九願意在此誠懇呼籲：兩岸不論在台灣海峽或國際社會，都應該和解休兵，並在國際組織及活動中相互協助、彼此尊重。兩岸人民同屬中華民族，本應各盡所能，齊頭並進，共同貢獻國際社會，而非惡性競爭、虛耗資源。我深信，以世界之大、中華民族智慧之高，台灣與大陸一定可以找到和平共榮之道。

英九堅信，兩岸問題最終解決的關鍵不在主權爭議，而在生活方式與核心價值。我們真誠關心大陸十三億同胞的福祉，由衷期盼中國大陸能繼續走向自由、民主與均富的大道，為兩岸關係的長遠和平發展，創造雙贏的歷史條件。

最近四川發生大地震，災情十分慘重，台灣人民不分黨派，都表達由衷的關切，並願意提供即時的援助，希望救災工作順利，災民安置與災區重建早日完成。

三、台灣的傳承與願景

從宣誓就職的這一刻開始，英九深知個人已肩負二千三百萬人民的付託，這是我一生最光榮的職務，也是我一生最重大的責任。英九雖然不是在台灣出生，但台灣是我成長的故鄉，也是我親人埋骨的所在。我尤其感念台灣社會對我這樣一個戰後新移民的包容之義、栽培之恩與擁抱之情。我義無反顧，別無懸念，只有勇往直前，全力以赴！

四百多年來，台灣這塊土地一直慷慨的接納著先來後到的移民，滋養、庇護著我們，提供我們及後代子孫安身立命的空間，並以高峻的山峰、壯闊的大海，充實、淬礪著我們的心靈。我們繼承的種種歷史文化，不但在這片土地上得到延續，更得到擴增與創新，進而開創出豐盛多元的人文風景。

中華民國也在台灣得到了新生。在我任內，我們將慶祝中華民國開國一百週年。這一個亞洲最早誕生的民主共和國，在大陸的時間只有三十八年，在台灣的歲月卻將超過一甲子。在這近六十年間，中華民國與台灣的命運已經緊密的結合在一起，共同經歷了艱難險阻與悲歡歲月，更在追求民主的曲折道路上，有了長足的進步。國父孫中山先生的民主憲政理想，當年在大陸未能實現，但今天在台灣終於生根、開花、結果。

面對台灣的未來，英九充滿了信心。多年來我走遍台灣各個角落，在與各行各業的互動之中，最讓我感受深刻的就是：地無分南北，人無分老幼，善良、正直、勤奮、誠信、包容、進取等傳統核心價值，不但洋溢在台灣人的生活言行，也早已深植在台灣人的本性裡。這是台灣一切進步力量的泉源，也是「台灣精神」的真諦。

盱衡時局，環顧東亞，台灣擁有絕佳的地理位置、珍貴的文化資產、深厚的人文素養、日漸成熟的民主、活力創新的企業、多元和諧的社會、活躍海內外的民間組織、遍佈全球的愛鄉僑民，以及來自世界各地的新移民。只要我們秉持「台灣精神」，善用我們的優勢，並堅持「以台灣為主，對人民有利」的施政原則，我們一定可以將台澎金馬建設為舉世稱羨的樂土、我們引以為傲的美麗家園。

财台灣的振興不只要靠政府的努力，更要靠人民的力量；需要借重民間的智慧、需要朝野協商合作、需要所有的社會成員積極投入。各位親愛的父老兄弟姊妹們，我們要從此刻開始，捲起袖子，立即行動，打造美麗家園，為子孫奠定百年盛世的基礎。讓我們心連心、手牽手，大家一起來奮鬥！

現在，請大家跟我一起高呼：

台灣民主萬歲！
中華民國萬歲！

謝謝大家！

Labels: China, Taiwan

  ¶ 9:59 PM 0 comments

  Hopes rise for Taiwan-China dialogue By Kathrin Hille in Taipei
Wednesday Apr 2 2008, FT

Only two weeks after Ma Ying-jeou won Taiwan's presidential election in a landslide, the first signs are emerging that Taiwan and China are edging towards resuming a dialogue that has been suspended for a decade.

Mr Ma this week lauded a remark by Hu Jintao, China's president, that China and Taiwan should restore talks on the basis of an agreement to disagree on sovereignty issues which allowed the two to launch consultations in 1992. "You cannot deny that there is progress here," Mr Ma said.

In the arcane world of cross-strait diplomacy, nuances in language make a big difference. They are back in the spotlight now that Mr Ma's election has raised hopes of rapprochement in the ­Taiwan Strait.

As China refuses to recognise the existence of a separate state on Taiwan and the island refuses to renounce its sovereignty, Beijing and Taipei agreed in 1992 to recognise the existence of only one China and differ on its interpretation.

Mr Ma based his optimism this week on the understanding that Mr Hu had actually acknowledged the contents of this "92 consensus", something Beijing has refused to do for the past eight years.

According to George Tsai, one of Taiwan's foremost experts in cross-strait relations, Mr Hu's reported remarks are "a very big step forward". "So far, [Mr Ma's party, the Kuomintang] has always referred to 'one China, with different interpretations', but China preferred 'one China, no interpretation'."

Mr Hu is believed to have made the switch in a phone conversation with President George W. Bush on March 26. According to a US account of the talks, Mr Hu said: "It is China's consistent stand that the Chinese mainland and Taiwan should restore consultation and talks on the basis of 'the 1992 consensus', which sees both sides recognise there is only one China, but agree to differ on its definition."

Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan's incumbent president, argues that since China never publicly recognised the differing interpretations, Taiwan would, by agreeing to the 92 consensus, give up its claim of sovereignty. He has warned that China's official Xinhua News Agency, in its report on the Hu-Bush conversation, omitted the reference to the contents of the "consensus".

But Mr Ma argues that the vagueness of the understanding would allow the two sides to return to the negotiation table. "The whole world deals with this according to 'one China, different interpretations'. We should adopt the same kind of flexibility," he said.

Analysts expect Taipei and Beijing to continue technical talks aimed at opening non-stop weekend charter flights, which ended without results early last year, as soon as Mr Ma takes office in late May.

Higher-level, more wide-ranging dialogue through government-backed foundations, suspended since 1998, would probably resume later this year, Mr Tsai said.

According to Mr Ma, such dialogue would focus on the protection of Taiwanese investment in China, double taxation and access to the Chinese banking market, and eventually result in a Comprehensive Economic Co-operation Agreement. Only after building trust through these trade talks can the two sides move towards more sensitive issues, according to Mr Ma's road map.

Any peace agreement would be years away. All of those "political issues", says an aide to Mr Ma, are ­"second-term stuff" and "not going to happen before 2012".

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 12:29 AM 0 comments

  马英九赞赏胡锦涛两岸谈判主张 英国《金融时报》席佳琳(Kathrin Hille)台北报道
2008年4月3日 星期四

马英九以压倒性优势赢得台湾总统选举才仅仅两周，就有初步迹象显示，台湾与中国大陆正在向恢复两岸对话缓步迈进。两岸对话如今已中断达10年之久。

本周，马英九对中国国家主席胡锦涛有关大陆与台湾应当在“九二共识”基础上恢复对话的表态表示赞赏。这一共识曾让双方在1992年进行协商。马英九表示：“你不能否认那是一种进步。”

在两岸外交的神秘世界中，文字上的细微之处可以造成很大的差异。马英九胜选，提升了人们对于台海两岸关系缓和的期望，这种“咬文嚼字”也再次登台。

由于中国拒绝承认台湾是一个独立的国家，而台湾拒绝放弃其主权，北京和台北在1992年达成共识，双方承认只有一个中国，但在表述上可以有所不同。

马英九本周的乐观态度，是基于这样一种理解，即胡锦涛实际上承认了“九二共识”的内容，而过去8年来北京一直拒绝这么做。

台湾最知名的两岸关系专家之一蔡玮(George Tsai)表示，报道中胡锦涛的表态是“向前迈进了很大一步”。“迄今，（马英九所在的国民党）一直在提‘一中各表'，而大陆更喜欢‘一中不表'。”

据信，胡锦涛是在3月26日与美国总统布什(George W. Bush)通电话时作出上述转变的。美方的一份通话记录显示，胡锦涛说：“在‘九二共识'（即双方承认只有一个中国，但同意彼此对‘一个中国'有不同的定义）的基础上恢复两岸协商谈判是我们的一贯立场。”

台湾现任总统陈水扁提出，由于大陆从未公开承认各自表述，若台湾承认“九二共识”，就等于放弃了自己的主权主张。他警告称，大陆官方的新华社在有关胡锦涛与布什通话的报道中，避而不提“共识”的具体内容。

但马英九指出，这种理解上的模糊性，有利于双方回到谈判桌上。他说：“全世界都在按照‘一中各表'处理这件事。我们应当采取同样的灵活性。”

分析人士预期，在马英九于5月下旬上任后，台北与北京将立即重启有关开通周末包机直航的技术性谈判。此项谈判在去年早些时候无果而终。

蔡玮表示，通过有官方背景的基金会进行的级别更高、范围更广的对话，很可能会在今年晚些时候恢复。这种对话自1998年以来一直处于中断状态。

据马英九表示，对话将聚焦于保护台商在大陆的投资，避免双重征税，以及大陆银行市场的准入，最终产生一项《全面经济合作协定》。根据马英九的路线图，双方只有在通过经贸协商建立起互信之后，才能开始协商更为敏感的议题。

任何和平协议都将是多年以后的事。马英九的一名助理表示，所有这些“政治课题，都是第二个任期的事，不会在2012年之前发生”。

译者/何黎

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 12:29 AM 0 comments

  Opposition KMT wins Taiwan election By Kathrin Hille in Taipei
Published: March 23 2008, FT

Taiwan’s voters gave a resounding victory to Ma Ying-jeou of the opposition Kuomintang party in the island’s presidential election, raising hopes of a reduction in tensions with China.

Mr Ma gained 58.45 per cent of the vote. Frank Hsieh from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party won 41.55 per cent.

Mr Ma campaigned on a platform of dialogue with Beijing and closer economic links with China, which regards the self-governing island as a renegade province and has threatened to invade if it moves towards formal independence.

The clear result gives Mr Ma a strong mandate to prioritise economic development over Taiwanese nationalism, and is expected to trigger a rally in the Taiwan stock market on Monday. Investors have been buying Taiwan stocks ahead of the election, betting on a KMT victory over the incumbent Demoractic Progressive party.

However, Mr Ma made clear that unification with China is not on his agenda and that he sees it as his responsibility to safeguard Taiwan’s status quo.

Asked how he interpreted the mandate voters had given him, Mr Ma said: “It clearly says that Taiwan should be more open, more pragmatic and should not isolate itself. But it also says that Taiwan should be united.” Mr Ma’s victory follows a landslide KMT victory in legislative elections in January which gave the party a majority of more than two-thirds in parliament.

Chen Shui-bian, the outgoing DPP president, had increasingly focused on strengthening pro-independence identity in Taiwan after initial attempts at a rapprochement with China were frustrated by Beijing’s refusal to engage.

THe KMT's legislative and presidential victories mark a strong comeback for the party, which lost power in 2000 after ruling Taiwan for over 50 years after nationalist forces fled China in 1949 following defeat by Communist troops in the Chinese civil war.

The president-elect said he would work towards direct passenger aviation links with China as the first step in seeking rapprochement with the mainland when he is inaugurated in May.

Addressing a crowd of thousands of rejoicing supporters in front of his campaign headquarters, Mr Ma called the election a celebration of Taiwan’s core values of freedom and democracy, and pointed to the island’s role as the only democracy in the Chinese-speaking world.

The result of the election marks the third clear electoral defeat in in three years for the DPP. Observers said voters had used the ballot to condemn the ruling party for its weak legislative record and allegations of corruption.

“There’s only one comment to make about our eight years in power: We have failed in government,” said Chuang Suo-hang, a former DPP lawmaker who lost his seat in January.

The island also voted in two referendums on whether Taiwan should seek to join the United Nations. China has denounced the referendums as a “move towards independence.” The US, Taiwan’s sole protector against the threat from China, said they were an unnecessary and provocative step.

The two plebiscites were proposed by the DPP and the KMT respectively, and differed only in the name suggested for UN membership. They were both approved by more than 80 per cent of votes cast but failed to pass because they did not meet the required threshold of 50 per cent voter turnout.

China’s state-run Xinhua news agency said the results showed that Taiwan independence did not have the support of the people.

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 7:45 PM 0 comments

  Straitened times: Taiwan looks to China By Kathrin Hille
Tuesday Mar 25 2008, FT

After Ma Ying-jeou won Taiwan's presidential election on Saturday, jubilant supporters of his Kuomintang partied at the KMT headquarters all night. Investors were still celebrating when the market reopened on Monday, with stocks rising 4 per cent before easing back slightly on Tuesday.

Behind the exuberance stands the belief that the KMT's return to power could prove a historic moment - that it will put Taiwan on a track to closer economic integration with China, give the island its rightful share of the benefits of China's growth and defuse one of Asia's most dangerous latent conflicts. "The KMT and the Chinese leadership have a common objective: economic development on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the easing of tension. They will work towards the goal of economic integration and the revitalisation of Taiwan's economy," says Peter Sutton, head of research at the Taipei office of CLSA, a regional brokerage.

Mr Ma (pictured above) says he wants to put disagreements over Taiwan's status aside and start talks with Beijing - first on economic issues and eventually on a peace accord. While China has long claimed sovereignty over the island and threatens to attack it should Taiwan formalise its de facto independence, Chinese leaders have responded by saying they are ready to communicate with any Taiwanese politician who does not actively push for independence.

All of this contrasts sharply with the atmosphere that has prevailed in the Taiwan Strait for most of the past decade. Both Chen Shui-bian, the incumbent president from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive party, in office since 2000, and his predecessor Lee Teng-hui started out with a pragmatic approach to China but quickly hardened their attitude after Beijing frustrated their efforts.

As a result, the semi-official dialogue that started in 1992 - the furthest the two sides had come since the KMT lost the civil war in China to the Chinese Communist party in 1949 and fled to Taiwan - has been cut off since 1998. Arguing that Taiwan must limit its economic dependence on a country so powerful and so politically hostile, Taipei has also maintained a set of rigid rules to restrict the flow of people, goods and services across the Strait.

But now the Taiwanese have elected a president who turns that argument on its head. Mr Ma has pledged to open direct air links with China within a year, allow large numbers of mainland tourists to visit Taiwan, invite Chinese investors to buy Taiwanese property, abolish many restrictions on foreign direct investment in China and do away with rules that tightly restrict investment by local funds in Chinese securities. "China is not only a threat but also an opportunity," says Mr Ma. "We have to maximise the opportunity and minimise the threat."

The reason for the change of heart is economic stagnation. While the island's electronics exporters have thrived and continue to grab market share globally, the domestic sector has suffered as manufacturing jobs move to China, money flows offshore for better returns and multinationals become increasingly reluctant to expand in Taiwan. Taiwanese businesses have watched Hong Kong, South Korea with envy in recent years as they sense that the island, once hailed as an "Asian tiger" alongside the other three, is falling behind.

Indeed, of the four, the island faces the slowest annual growth, forecast at just over 4 per cent. It also trails in terms of per capita income, which stands at some US$15,000 (£7,510, €9,630). Private consumption, which plummeted during the 2001 recession following the bursting of the tech bubble, has not recovered to pre-crisis levels, even though employment growth returned to its historical average. Fixed capital formation as a percentage of gross domestic product is one of the lowest in the region, while property prices have trailed those in Hong Kong, South Korea by a widening margin.

Many economists blame Taiwan's uneasy political relationship with China and its restrictions on economic exchanges with the mainland. The problem, they argue, is not the lack of economic interaction but its distorted nature.

China is already Taiwan's largest trading partner and investment destination. Taiwanese companies have relocated labour-intensive production to the mainland over the past 15 years and their cumulative FDI there might be close to US$300bn, according to the government's latest estimates - which would make Taiwan China's largest source of FDI.

"But the restrictions have so far made economic contacts a one-way street," says Grace Ng, an economist at JPMorgan in Hong Kong. "The ceiling [set by Taiwan] which limits companies' investments in China at 40 per cent of their net worth has failed to discourage them from mainland investments. It has just discouraged them from repatriating profits to Taiwan for the fear of not being able to use the funds for further expansion on the mainland."

Individual investors have showed a similar inclination to take funds offshore and keep them there. Again, analysts argue that restrictions on links with China are at least partly to blame. First, the government bans the sale on the island of mutual funds that invest more than a tiny portion in China-linked equities. Second, the 40 per cent rule has kept companies from listing in Taiwan to raise funds for expansion in China, giving local investors who want to build exposure to China's growth no choice but to move offshore.

As a result, Taiwan saw a US$38.9bn outflow from its financial account last year, which more than offset the current account surplus and resulted in its first overall balance of payments deficit in 10 years.

The ban on direct transport across the Strait has had similar effects. Travelling from Taipei to Shanghai, theoretically no more than a one-hour flight, currently takes more than six hours because travellers must transit in Hong Kong. This means Taiwanese entrepreneurs with investments on the other side of the Strait do not have the choice of commuting between Taiwan and China. Many have moved to the mainland and an estimated 2m Taiwanese now live in Shanghai. "The absence of this group with relatively strong spending power is certainly hurting Taiwan's domestic economy," says Ms Ng.

The ban on direct flights, together with Taiwan's unwelcoming attitude towards Chinese citizens, has also discouraged multinationals from putting more staff and more regional functions on the island. Most analysts expect that to change under Mr Ma. "Taiwan will be opened for Chinese capital and people so that Taipei can become a services centre for Greater China, just like Hong Kong," says Mr Sutton.

Not everyone shares this optimism. "I don't think that [relations with China] are the main problem," says Duncan Wooldridge, UBS's chief economist for Asia. "Taiwan is already the most integrated economy in the world with China; and Korea and Japan share the problem of weak domestic consumption. Why is it that only Taiwan should improve by moving even closer to China?" He predicts that Mr Ma's government will enjoy a honeymoon but will fail to meet the market's expectations in the longer term.

Mr Ma emphasises that links with China are just one dimension of his economic policy agenda. They will be complemented by efforts to push other bilateral and regional trade deals and plans to kick-start domestic demand with a T$4,000bn (£66bn, $133bn, €85bn) infrastructure investment programme.

But unlocking the potential for Taiwan to benefit more from its strong trade and investment links to China is still set to be the key psychological driver in the coming years. Ms Ng believes that the Hong Kong experience could provide a valuable example. "After the handover in 1997, Hong Kong was soul-searching because the perception was that it would become marginalised in Greater China," she says. "Although there are differences, this is the problem Taiwan faces now, too."

Hong Kong's fortunes changed after it signed a Closer Economic Partnership Agreement (Cepa) with China, which allowed the territory's banks to invest in Chinese counterparts and gave approval for residents from several Chinese provinces to travel to Hong Kong as tourists.

In Taiwan's case, economists say the main effects could come from companies giving up their past reluctance to invest at home, as tax changes and soaring labour costs damage the investment environment in China just as Taiwan is expected to become more attractive. "Hong Kong's annual growth post-Cepa has averaged at 6 to 7 per cent, up from 3.5 to 4 per cent before 2003, and a similar effect can be expected for Taiwan," says Ms Ng.

Having seen Taiwan transformed from an authoritarian one-party regime into one of Asia's most vibrant democracies, the Taiwanese reject few things more passionately than comparisons with Hong Kong. The parallels, therefore, cannot reach beyond pure economics. Since martial law was lifted in 1987 and democracy introduced in the early 1990s, Taiwan has gradually discovered an identity of its own. Only a tiny minority of the island's residents now accept the idea of future unification with their giant neighbour.

The twists and turns that Mr Ma has deemed necessary to appear acceptable to voters prove how deep-rooted this new identity now is. In the early phase of his campaign, Mr Ma said that his party's long-term goal remained eventual unification. But he takes the position that, for now, Taiwan is a sovereign country - a view first expressed by the DPP and fiercely rejected by Beijing many times. He also stresses that he will not negotiate over reunification but only over ways to handle the bilateral hostilities.

KMT representatives say the party's focus is and will be on power in Taiwan rather than on any role in a future united China. "Even beyond Mr Ma, it is hard to imagine that any KMT politician would seriously think about unification," says Ho Szu-yin, a political scientist at National Chengchi University who also works for the KMT.

The main difference between the KMT and the DPP could be described as one between realism and idealism. The DPP, a party founded in opposition to the KMT's authoritarian one-party regime in the 1980s, openly advocates Taiwanese independence. The KMT in the past tried to impose a Chinese nationalist ideology on Taiwan and cling to its goal of eventual unification but it has moved to the middle since democratisation for the sake of political survival. "We also love Taiwan, but we love it in a realistic way. We take the view that if we don't have wealth we don't have power," says Mr Ho. "Economic clout is Taiwan's raison d'etre."

That certainly differs from China's long-term objectives. "The Chinese leadership hopes to create an irreversible trend towards peaceful integration," says George Tsai, a professor at Chinese Culture University and one of Taiwan's leading experts on cross-Strait relations. But he believes that China's leaders are happy for now, having been reassured by Mr Ma that formal independence will not be an issue under his government.

Therefore the new start between Beijing and Taipei could be about much more than business, even though it does not put Taiwan on the road towards unification.

Mr Tsai says that by the end of Mr Ma's first term, China and Taiwan could have implemented confidence-building measures such as the exchange of information on weapons deployments and troop movements and the establishment of communication channels between the armed forces to reduce the risk of conflict: "That would be a good start for another four years and far beyond anything that has been achieved ever since 1949."

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 7:43 PM 0 comments

  US mistakenly sent N-missile parts to Taiwan By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington
Tuesday Mar 25 2008, FT

The US mistakenly sent nuclear missile components to Taiwan in 2006, the Pentagon revealed on Tuesday, marking the second big failure of nuclear safeguards in recent years.

The Pentagon accidentally shipped four fuses for the Minuteman missile instead of helicopter batteries that Taiwan had ordered. Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, has ordered an investigation even though no fissile material was sent to Taiwan.

"[Mistakes] cannot be tolerated in the arena in strategic systems, whether they are nuclear or associated equipment, as was in this case," said Ryan Henry, a senior Pentagon official.

While the fuses are similar to those used on convention missiles, the models shipped to Taiwan were specifically designed for the Mk12 nuclear warhead, which would be attached to an intercontinental ballistic missile.

The revelation follows another embarrassing incident last year when a B-52 bomber unwittingly carried nuclear weapons across the US without military officials realising that the warheads had gone missing.

In the latest case, the Pentagon was unaware that the fuses had disappeared from storage. Taiwan notified the US earlier this year that the shipment did not match the order for batteries. Only last week, however, did the Pentagon realise that the shipped equipment was not another kind of battery, but the fuses used to trigger the start of the detonation process.

The US informed the Chinese government, which views Taiwan as a renegade province, about the matter on Tuesday, in advance of the public disclosure. Mr Henry stressed that US policy on Taiwan had not changed, saying the shipment was simply an error. The US is legally required to help Taiwan defend itself.

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said the "extremely stupid" mistake underscored that "procedures and controls on these sensitive items need to be reviewed and tightened". The Pentagon was also examining whether the transfer breached any international arms treaties or congressional regulations.

Admiral Kirkland Donald will investigate the error, and the Pentagon has ordered a comprehensive review to determine how the safeguards failed. Geoff Morrell, Pentagon press secretary, said Mr Gates chose a senior Navy officer partly to avoid any perception of conflict of interest.

While Taipei did not inform the Pentagon about the discrepancy until earlier this year, more than a year after the components were delivered, Michael Wynne, secretary of the air force, said the Taiwanese authorities had acted "very responsibly".

Mr Wynne said there was no indication that the fuses had been probed for intelligence. Mr Henry said there was no evidence that they had been tampered with, but added that the investigation would consider that possibility.

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 7:43 PM 0 comments

  Taiwan president cautious over KMT resurgence By Kathrin Hille in Taipei
Published: March 28 2008, FT

Winning a presidential election with a margin of 16 percentage points would be considered a triumph for most politicians or their parties.

But Ma Ying-jeou, who defeated his rival by a landslide in Taiwan’s presidential poll last weekend, speaks of “feeling fear” as he considers his term, while Wu Po-hsiung, who chairs Mr Ma’s Kuomintang (KMT) party, has declared: “This is not a victory of the KMT.”

Prompting such a cautious response is anxiety that Mr Ma could struggle to get his party under control, and that the KMT’s return to power could be short-lived if it is seen to abuse the dominant position it has gained in elections this year by winning both the presidency and a two-thirds majority in parliament.

Once omnipotent in Taiwan, the KMT today is a collection of factions and individuals with little in common beyond the consensus that the local economy needs to be fixed. The one thing holding it together is Mr Ma’s overwhelming popularity, which has both helped it win back power and put a heavy load on his shoulders.

“Faced with this huge responsibility, I feel I need to be very careful, and I feel fear,” Mr Ma said after his election triumph.

The KMT, under Chiang Kai-shek’s leadership, retreated to Taiwan in 1949 after defeat by the Communists. It ruled the island under an authoritarian, one-party regime for more than 40 years, imposing a Chinese nationalist ideology and claiming to be the legitimate government of China. But after trying to “localise” its message in the 1990s, it lost power in 2000 to the Democratic Progressive party (DPP), founded by former dissidents keen to pursue Taiwan’s formal independence and an agenda of social justice.

Since then, the KMT has developed into a concoction of ideological directions and policy orientations.

Chen Chien-chung, an official at the party’s central policy committee, said; “I admit that, in contrast to the DPP, the [KMT] doesn’t really have any core values or ideological beliefs.”

In recent years, KMT conservatives favouring a return to the Chinese nationalism of the party’s founding fathers, have gained ground.

Simultaneously, KMT lawmakers concerned with building personal support bases have increasingly opted for populist posturing – blurring the party’s traditional pro-business image.

For example, Lee Chi-chu, a legislator now considered a possible choice for finance minister, took part in efforts to ground DPP attempts to privatise government banks and reform an overcrowded and underperforming financial sector.

KMT legislators have also in recent years blocked most of the government’s planned weapons purchases from the US, with one protagonist – the former general Shuai Hwa-min – seen as a potential candidate for defence minister in Mr Ma’s cabinet.

The past unruliness of the KMT has raised questions over whether Mr Ma will be able to control his party.

“He is far too soft for our liking, and many of us had to swallow their hate before we voted for him,” says Chang Ling-chen, a professor of political science at National Taiwan University and a KMT conservative.

Mr Ma’s decision to surround himself with a small circle of trusted advisers – none of whom holds a post in the KMT hierarchy – has created distrust among other senior politicians in the party. He is also at odds with major factions.

A descendant of a mainland family, born in Hong Kong and a former aide to the late president Chiang Ching-kuo, Mr Ma has the wrong background, in the eyes of “localised” KMT factions. Pro-China stalwarts, meanwhile, view him with suspicion because he insists he will not negotiate a re-unification with the mainland, and insists on criticising Beijing’s human-rights record.

But people close to Mr Ma say that his demonstrated popular support means the party will have no choice but to follow him.

“He is all the party has got,” said one senior aide.

“If the result had been close, there might have been claims by certain people in the party that he owed his victory to them. But that is out of the question now.”

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 7:36 PM 0 comments

  马英九为何“戒慎恐惧”？ 作者：英国《金融时报》席佳琳(Kathrin Hille)台北报道
2008年4月2日 星期三

对于大多数政客或政党来说，以16个百分点的优势赢得总统大选，都可以被视为一个胜利。

在最近台湾总统选举投票中，马英九以压倒优势击败了对手。但面对未来施政，他自言“戒慎恐惧”，而国民党主席吴伯雄宣称：“这不是国民党一党的胜利。”

他们之所以作出这种谨慎的回应，是因为担心马英九可能难以控制其政党，加之今年国民党不仅赢得总统大选，还获得立法院三分之二的多数席位，如果人们认为该党滥用其在选举中赢得的这种主导地位，那么国民党此番重掌大权可能只是昙花一现。

曾经在台湾呼风唤雨的国民党，如今只是不同派系和个人的集合体，除了在需要重振台湾经济方面具有共识以外，没有什么共同点。将国民党凝聚在一起的，是马英九压倒性的名望，这不仅帮助国民党夺回大权，也使马英九肩负重任。

马英九在大选胜利后表示，想到台湾人民给了这么大的责任，他未来会“以戒慎恐惧、居安思危的心情好好的做”。

蒋介石领导的国民党在被共产党打败后，于1949年败退台湾。该党以威权式的一党制统治台湾40多年，在当地灌输中国民族主义意识形态，并自称为中国的合法政府。但在上世纪90年代试图将其主张“本土化”后，国民党在2000年大选中败给了民进党。民进党是由热衷于寻求台湾正式独立和社会公平议程的前异见者创立的。

自那以来，国民党已发展成为一个各种意识形态方向和政策导向的综合体。

国民党中央政策委员会官员Chen Chien-chung表示：“我承认，相对于民进党，本党并没有任何核心价值观或意识形态方面的信念。”

近年来，国民党内保守派人士赞成回归该党创始人所推崇的中国民族主义观念，他们赢得了一些支持。

与此同时，关心个人民意的国民党立委越来越倾向于选择民粹主义姿态——令该党传统的亲商形象变得模糊。

例如，目前被视为台湾财长潜在人选的立委李纪珠，就参与阻挠民进党推行公有银行私有化及改革过于拥挤且表现不佳的金融领域的努力。

近年来，国民党立委还封杀了民进党政府向美国购买武器的大多数计划，其中一位积极分子——退役中将帅化民——被视为马英九内阁国防部长的潜在人选。

国民党以往的难以驾驭，引发了有关马英九能否控制该党的疑问。

国立台湾大学政治学系教授、国民党保守派人士Chang Ling-chen表示：“他太软弱了，不是我们喜欢的类型，在投他的票之前，我们中的许多人不得不按捺自己的不满。”

马英九决定在自己身边建立一个亲信顾问组成的小圈子——他们中没有人在国民党党内任职——这在国民党其他高层人士之中造成了不信任感。同时，他也与党内一些主要派系意见相左。

马英九祖籍大陆，生于香港，曾担任已故台湾总统蒋经国的秘书，在“本土化”国民党派系眼中，他的背景有问题。与此同时，坚定的亲大陆人士也用怀疑的眼光看待他，因为他坚称不会与大陆谈判统一问题，并坚持批评北京的人权记录。

但接近马英九的人表示，他所展现出的民意支持率，意味着国民党将别无选择，只能跟随他。

一位高级助理表示：“他是党的唯一希望。”

“如果投票结果非常接近，党内某些人可能会声称，他的胜利应归功于他们。但现在不存在这种可能。”

译者/何黎

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 7:35 PM 0 comments

  邱立本﹕文化航母的最後勝利 2007年12月2日

亞洲周刊／中國要打造新的文化航母﹐超越“去中國化”逆流﹐也沖破“絕對權力絕對腐化”的惡浪。

航空母艦是一個權力符號。它是二十世紀海軍工藝的高峰與標志﹐改變了傳統海陸空三大軍種各自作戰的形態﹐凝聚三軍協同作戰的特色﹐讓航母成為一座流動的城堡﹐發揮戰爭奇襲的威力。

但到了二十一世紀﹐中國為何還沒有航母﹖這也成為不少中國人心中隱隱作痛之處﹐認為在海洋爭霸戰中失去優勢﹐也失去國際的權力符號。

很多國際軍事專家認為﹐中國其實早已具備制造航母的能力﹐但卻一直沒有像當年日本帝國海軍那樣﹐投入“航母競賽”的熱潮中﹐因為成也航母﹐敗也航母。巨大的流動堡壘﹐也會成為巨大的戰靶。日本在上世紀二十年代就率先研制航母﹐最後成為一九四一年偷襲珍珠港成功的秘密武器﹐但也埋下日本在中途島大戰中慘敗的伏筆。

因而在核子及衛星時代﹐中國的建軍方向似乎是發展核子潛艇及殺手衛星等“上天下海”的打擊力量﹐避免在航母爭霸戰中陷于“後來而不居上”的尷尬地位。

但中國最尷尬的其實是軟實力的爭霸戰﹐尤其在臺灣問題上。因為任何最先進﹑最龐然大物的航母﹐都比不上在文化海洋中的航母﹐可以成為全球華人心中的流動堡壘﹐既捍衛中華文化﹐又可以與普世價值接軌﹐贏得臺灣的民心﹐也可以贏得兩岸的和平統一。

這可能比現實的軍備競賽更困難﹐但一念之差﹐也可能會更容易﹐因為在“文化航母”的建設中﹐中國擁有前所未有的資源和機緣──一個快速增長與成熟的全球華人社會。當中國的經濟力與社會力與全球化的浪潮結合時﹐也與茁壯強大的各地華人結合。

臺商﹑港商及東南亞華商在中國大陸的貢獻﹐不僅提升了GDP﹐也改變了生活方式﹐而全球華人社會的創造力﹐都匯聚在中國的軟實力建設中﹐從金庸到龍應臺﹐ 從李敖到羅大佑﹐從鄧麗君到李安﹐他們的創意﹐都深印在神州大地民眾的心裡。在中國的心靈戰爭中﹐他們義無反顧地走在改革的最前線﹐提供精神的彈藥﹐去攻破那些過去認為牢不可破的堡壘。

對臺灣同胞來說﹐如果中國大陸的軟實力勝過了硬權力﹔如果中國大陸的自由﹑民主建設及法治能和今日的香港看齊﹐那麼兩岸的統一就可以水到渠成﹐臺獨的論述與實踐就會化解于無形﹔兩岸的軍備競賽也可以隨風而逝。

也就是說﹐文化的航母﹐最終必然擊敗軍事的航母﹔思想的武器﹐也最終可以鎮住物質的武器。

這也是中國在文化海洋中千帆並舉的時刻。它不僅是靠政治權力來建造一艘文化航母﹐而是依靠民間力量和全球華人社會打造更多的流動堡壘﹐超越“去中國化”的逆流﹐也沖破“絕對權力絕對腐化”的惡浪﹐航向中華民族的理想彼岸。■

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 1:51 PM 0 comments

  美国曾默许台湾发展核武 联合早报网 2007-10-21

　　香港大公网报道，据台湾媒体二十日报道：国民党立委苏起十九日在“立法院”爆料，表示收到来自民进党内部的可靠消息显示，陈水扁下令“中科院”研发核子武器。但“行政院长”张俊雄和“国防部长”李天羽皆否认台湾曾发展核武器。

　　台湾究竟有没有发展核武器？亲绿营的《自由时报》二十日报道说，台湾过去发展核武的“新竹计划”是在美国的默许下诞生的，一九六八年这个计划正式展开。冷战时期台湾“中科院”几乎成功研发出核武，美国在其中担当的角色是举足轻重的。但一九八八年美国中央情报局策动台湾“中科院”核研所副所长张宪义叛逃，导致核武计划胎死腹中。至于现阶段台湾发展核武能力如何？国际军事专家一般把台湾列为“有能力发展”。

　　《自由时报》指出，美国华府智库布鲁金斯研究所在出版的“核武临界点”书中提到，台湾现储有低于两公斤的钸以及低于两吨的铀料。要多少时间可制出第一枚核弹？有两种说法，一种是台湾只需三到四个月就能够将核武级材料“武器化”，并可在一年内重建钸的再处理工厂。另一说法则完全不同，认为台湾因终止核武计划已久，须经八到十年全力发展才成。

　　华府认为台曾制出核弹

　　文章称，台湾政府对于核武能力的说法，一向是不承认也不否认，但强调不会制造储备核弹。“新竹计划”从培养台湾核能专家，到从加拿大半官方公司采购核子反应炉、炉心核燃料到重水，都是美国安排第三国出售，甚至分离萃取纯化钸的测试样品都是美国所提供。美国意图透过让台湾有能力研制核武、却不拥有核弹来“吓阻”大陆不要轻举妄动。

　　美国中央情报局曾评估，台湾一九七九年应已制出首枚核弹，张宪义叛逃时台湾已有八十四公斤核武级钸二三九；后来美国主导关闭“中科院”核研所反应炉，并用水泥封闭可分离核武级钸的热室，却又不让台湾解散核研所，并保有核武制作蓝图。

　　另据东森新闻报道，针对苏起爆料，陈水扁二十日回应说，台湾没有核弹，也不会发展核武。他还装无知说，他连核弹头是圆是扁都不知道，全都是苏起杜撰出来的。

Labels: nuclear weapon, Taiwan

  ¶ 3:56 AM 0 comments

  Taiwan's Defense Ministry Denies Nuclear Weapons Development By Chinmei Sung

Oct. 20,2007 (Bloomberg) -- Taiwan's government denied that it is developing nuclear weapons or cruise missiles with nuclear warheads.

Taiwan ``does not produce, develop, get, store, or use nuclear weapons,'' the Ministry of Defense said in a faxed statement yesterday. ``Taiwan's defense strategy has been clearly defined.''

The ministry's remarks came after opposition lawmaker Su Chi said yesterday in a legislative session that the government is developing nuclear weapons, which was reported today in the Taipei-based, Chinese-language Liberty Times.

Taiwan displayed locally developed missiles in its first National Day military parade in 16 years on the Oct. 10.

China considers Taiwan part of its territory.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chinmei Sung in Taipei at csung4@bloomberg.net

Labels: nuclear weapon, Taiwan

  ¶ 3:36 AM 0 comments

  FBIS Report: PRC Media Response to Taiwan Nuclear Weapons Debate Low-key

Friday, November 12, 2004

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/taiwan/fbis111204.html

(FBIS Report) Beijing has not responded officially to claims by a Taiwan legislator that Chen Shui-bian's government is planning to develop nuclear weapons or to the debate in Taiwan media prompted by his remarks. However, commentary appearing on official websites and in papers affiliated with mainstream party dailies has implied that Taiwan may be developing nuclear weapons and, in one case, recommended a strong Beijing response. To date, neither China's official press agency Xinhua, nor the party paper Renmin Ribao has been observed to report on the issue. The only report known to have been carried by mainstream central media appeared on the website of Beijing's news service for overseas Chinese, Zhongguo Xinwen She, on 14 October. The news service reported, without comment, Taiwan legislator Nelson Ku's allegations and Taiwan Premier Yu Shyi-kun's denial that Chen had set up a five-person team to plan a nuclear weapons program. The sparse commentary that has appeared on the issue in China's less authoritative, state-controlled media, however, has implied that Taiwan may be considering a nuclear weapons program.

-- In the strongest such example, an article posted on a popular discussion forum hosted by Renmin Ribao's news portal Renmin Wang denounced Chen's "vain attempt" to develop nuclear weapons as part of his "pipe dream" of resisting unification by military means (21 October). Suggesting leadership approval of the article, Renmin Wang highlighted it as one of the top 15 essays of the day; it was submitted by a regular contributor who writes under the pseudonym Zhen Duo. -- Entitled "Taiwan is Using Empty Blackmail," the article quoted former Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui as stating in 1995 that Taiwan should re-examine the issue of nuclear weapons and claimed that Lee "secretly ordered the resumption of Taiwan's nuclear weapons research program." It also claimed that Chen "fantasized" that he could gain tacit US consent for a nuclear weapons program and had "sent his lackey to the United States to "sound out" this possibility from his "US boss." -- The article urged a low-key response to reports of Taiwan's nuclear plans in order to avoid inciting Taiwan's population, while at the same time calling for "exposing the sinister intentions of the Taiwan authorities." It advocated issuing a "stern warning" to the international community regarding Taiwan's threat and warning Taiwan that if it "acts with willful disregard" China will "attack its nuclear facilities." It concluded that "we should explain our stand and then observe calmly."

Popular papers published by mainstream party media organs underscored previous Taiwan efforts to develop nuclear weapons, implying that reports of Taiwan's current nuclear weapons plans may be accurate.

-- An article carried by a highly nationalistic Renmin Ribao-affiliated paper, Huanqiu Shibao, on 15 October laid out a detailed history of Taiwan's nuclear weapons programs since 1950. The article stated that in 1950 the United States and Taiwan planned to attack Xiamen with tactical nuclear bombs, but the United States later backed away from the plan. In the 1970's the United States forced Taiwan to end a nuclear weapons program established by Chiang Kai-shek in the late 1960's under the auspices of the Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST). The United States again forced Taiwan to end a nuclear weapons program "secretly" restarted by Chiang Ching-kuo in the 1980s when a nuclear scientist, Chang Hsien-i, defected to the United States with the information. It claimed that even during Lee Teng-hui's tenure, the words and actions of officials raised suspicions that his administration had resumed the nuclear weapons program. The article concluded that although Chen Shui-bian has publicly committed to a "nuclear-free home" and never developing nuclear weapons, Taiwan media suspect Chen is playing word games and may want to develop nuclear weapons to prevent unification. -- A "special contributor article" in a weekly journal published by the CPC's China Youth League also reviewed the history of Taiwan's nuclear weapons programs on 27 October (Qingnian Cankao). The author, Xi Qingshan of the Nanjing Army Command College, asserted that "Taiwan's development of nuclear weapons has long been an open secret." He wrote that Chiang Kai-shek was shocked in 1964 by the PRC's detonation of a nuclear bomb and demanded the United States destroy its facilities. Chiang also initiated the "Hsinchu Project" to develop nuclear weapons, which received technical assistance from Israel and the United States. In 1971 Taiwan withdrew from the IAEA in order to hide its uranium enrichment activities, but in 1972 President Nixon forced (Premier) Chiang Ching-kuo to publicly renounce nuclear weapons. A discovery in 1976 by international inspectors that 500 grams of plutonium had disappeared from Taiwan nuclear energy facilities forced Taiwan to end its nuclear weapons program. After succeeding his father, Chiang Ching-kuo began a second program and by 1987 Taiwan was only one or two years away from producing a nuclear bomb. In January 1988, CSIST scientist and "CIA spy" Chang Hsien-i defected to the United States and newly inaugurated Lee Teng-hui was forced to abandon the nuclear weapons program once again.

Some mainstream central media have included speculation on Taiwan's nuclear program in reporting on related issues since the nuclear weapons story broke in Taiwan.

-- Renmin Ribao's online English newspaper on 8 November reported Taiwan media as claiming that Taiwan intends to build Asia's largest missile base and speculated that the base might "even" house "nuclear weapons." -- In a CCTV-4 interview on an alleged secret shipment of missile parts to Taiwan, Chen Hu, the chief editor of the PRC's "World Military Magazine," said he "suspected" that Taiwan "may be considering developing weapons of mass destruction or even nuclear weapons" (28 October).

Reportage With No Commentary A number of popular metropolitan papers affiliated with prominent provincial party committees have carried a variety of reports from Taiwan and other media but have not added commentaries of their own.

-- A Guangdong party committee paper, Nanfang Dushi Bao, on 16 October reported that the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense spokesman Huang Sui-sheng said Taiwan will never develop or store nuclear weapons. It also said Taiwan's Atomic Energy Council Vice Chairman Yang Chao-yie admitted Taiwan had performed experiments with plutonium as a source of nuclear energy up until about 1980, but ended them due to pressure from President Carter. -- On 22 October Guangzhou party paper, Xin Kuai Bao, cited a 13 October Associated Press article as reporting that the IAEA said Taiwan was performing plutonium separation experiments up until about 20 years ago.

The paper also quoted the president of the Washington think tank Institute for Science and International Security as saying that "if Taiwan were to develop nuclear weapons, it would be suicide." -- In addition, a number of official party committee dailies picked up reports from various Taiwan and Western news sources and relayed them without comment. These included Beijing Qingnian Bao, the paper of the Beijing party committee's Communist Youth League, and such provincial party committee papers as Fujian Ribao and Nanjing Ribao.

Labels: nuclear weapon, Taiwan

  ¶ 3:35 AM 0 comments

  扁声东击西 偷偷发展核武 2007-10-20 联合早报网

　　据台湾联合报报道，国民党总统参选人马英九核心幕僚、立委苏起昨天在立法院总质询时语出惊人表示，明年三月，台湾将至少拥有十二至十四枚可携带核弹的雄二E导弹，上海、南京、武昌、广州、香港都在射程范围。

　　在行政院长张俊雄、国防部等极力否认后，苏起说，张俊雄可以否认，但他还是认为，台湾发展核武的可能性很高。虽然没有任何情资，全凭推理，但根据他对国际事务的观察与了解，「推理到最后就是这个唯一结论」。

　　苏起说，一位民进党重量级立委、也是中执委且与官邸关系良好的同仁，日前跟另两位民进党立委，亲口告诉他说：「阿扁已经下令中科院制作核武。」这位重量级委员跟他讲完这句话后，又补一句说：「我也觉得扁这样做不妥，但阿扁已经下令了。」

　　他指出，陈水扁目前正在导演一出「声东击西」的戏码，「东」是公投，旧戏；「西」是雄二E导弹，是新戏，才是主戏。他是根据几个迹象及讯息，推理出「不正常的总统」陈水扁正逐步将台湾变成北韩。

　　他说的迹象包括：一，民进党立委跟他的谈话是最重要的「关键」，陈水扁已经偷偷发展核武。二，有一位嘴巴很大的国安官员不慎泄漏，台湾日前邀请一位核子大国的前国防部长及科学家秘密访台。

　　第三，今年二月二日，陈水扁参加前亲民党立委顾崇廉的公祭后，立刻跟前国防部长李杰会合，一同前往九鹏视查雄二E导弹试射，这次试射顺利成功。

　　第四、日本对台湾的情报蒐集是全世界最「准」的国家，台湾要在国庆日展示雄二E导弹，日本政府立刻跳出来表示反对。日本在台湾推动入联一直保持沈默，但陈水扁要展示雄二E导弹，日本马上表明反对，耐人寻味。

　　第五，十七日立法院国防委员会召开国防预算秘密会议，国防部副部长柯承亨从来不为国防预算讲话，但当天柯为雄二E导弹，讲了很多话，这里面有很大的政治意涵。

　　苏起表示，陈水扁要制作雄二E导弹的主要目的，是做为跟美国秘密谈判的筹码，换取阿扁及全家人的政治庇护，如果美国不愿意，大大陆又采取强硬手段，陈水扁会宣布戒严，甚至玉石俱焚。

Labels: nuclear weapon, Taiwan

  ¶ 1:33 AM 0 comments

  台解散監聽部門“聯合偵防中心” 2007/10/18, 亚洲时报

《聯合報》報道，就在在野黨立委質疑台灣境內監聽氾濫之際，台灣國防部長李天羽昨天（17日）指出，他已下令即日解散前部長李傑任內成立的“聯合偵防中心”，他曾擔任空軍保防安全處長與政戰主任，知道類似單位沒有存在必要，而且它是任務編組，也不宜存在太久。

外界對“聯合偵防中心”很陌生，因為它祕密成立不滿4年，在預算書裡根本找不到，是任務編組的黑單位，借用長沙街台北憲兵隊樓上辦事，對“必要人物”從事廣泛的監聽與情蒐任務。

據了解，昨天聯偵中心並沒有什麼解散的動作。李天羽是前天（16日）下令解除聯偵中心臨時編組，即日起任務結束，納編軍官各自歸建原屬單位，但命令昨天還未到聯偵中心。

聯偵中心是在前部長李傑任內，由當時總政戰局長陳邦治負責籌組。緣由是李傑認為媒體屢次獲得爆料報道軍中弊案，但軍方追查來源不得要領。檢討認為，因為法令對監聽跟監等侵犯基本人權的偵查措施已有所限制，軍方無法杜絕洩密。

於是“聯合偵防中心”秘密納編了憲調組、反情報總隊、軍事檢察官等，以任務編組形態，集中作業，由軍事檢察官直接開出監聽票，對特定軍人和媒體記者蒐證。由於該單位存在無人知曉，也就無人監督，監控對象的範圍愈來愈大，甚至連立法委員和國會助理都被納入。

但“聯偵中心”不是法定編制單位，不能編列預算，其運作經費從何而來？據了解，國防部是挪用年度預算的“標餘款”，即用剩下的錢，本應繳回國庫，但軍方自頒行政命令挪用，其中每年有兩億元（新台幣，下同）撥給“聯偵中心”使用。

有關官員透露，李天羽終於決定裁撤聯偵中心，實因本周一（15日）國防預算公開部分審查時，立委蘇起提案刪減聯二情報次長室的情報行政經費1100萬元的200萬元，以懲罰國防部對這類“東廠”單位的縱容，所以李天羽最後讓步。

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 4:12 PM 0 comments

  台國防部：聯合偵防中心 即日起裁撤 【中央社╱台北十八日電】2007.10.18

國防部軍事發言人室今天表示，國防部於民國九十三年間編成的「聯合偵防中心」，即日起裁撤。

聯合報報導，聯偵中心是在前國防部長李傑任內，由當時總政戰局長陳邦治負責籌組，緣由是李傑認為媒體屢次獲得爆料報導軍中弊案，軍方為杜絕洩密所執行的任務編組。「聯合偵防中心」秘密納編憲調組、反情報總隊、軍事檢察官等，因任務編組不受監督，監控對象也越來越廣泛。

軍事發言人室表示，成立聯偵中心是鑑於2003年間國防部軍情局及中科院等單位相繼發生洩密及敵諜案件，為因應防諜線索發掘及案件調查需求，才於2004年初奉准以「任務編組」方式，編成國防部「聯合偵防中心」，專責檢肅敵諜、防制叛逃、維護軍機及重大軍紀違法案件調查。

軍事發言人室進一步指出，國防部「聯合偵防中心」自運作以來，屢遭外界關注並質疑違法設置等誤解，為去除外界疑慮，這項「任務編組」已簽奉部長李天羽核示，自即日起裁撤。未來處理敵諜、叛逃、洩密及重大軍紀違法案件，國軍將依據法定職權，秉持「依法行政」原則。

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 4:09 PM 0 comments

  台湾“现代东厂” 专门监听军界政界媒体 2007-10-19

台湾有个从事监听与情搜的黑机关———“联合侦防中心”。“联侦中心”纳编约二十人，来自军事安全总队和“宪兵调查组”，还有军事检察官，由一位空军政战上校担任主任，以“情报监听”、“犯罪侦察”为由，监控媒体记者、高阶将领、政党人士的电话往来。

　　因为监听对象非常多，录音带翻译工程浩大，“联侦中心”经常就近征调“宪兵队”义务役大专兵担任逐句翻译的工作。“联侦中心”的存在，渐渐纸包不住火，外界开始知道军方有这样一个“比东厂还东厂的单位”，但军方一概否认。

　　去年，“联侦中心”内部跟监纪录被有心人士寄送到报社，爆料内容详载，至少两名记者除遭电话监听，还被专人分组跟监，当事人的车牌号码、住址和“起居注”，连新购摩托车及车牌号码都有。

　　至此，“联侦中心”正式曝光。但军方一方面对外保证绝无非法监听，一方面继续让它运作。

　　某“立委”听闻“联侦中心”对“立委”情搜，曾到台北“宪兵队”抗议，但在门口就被挡驾，被请到指挥官办公室喝茶。军方告诉他没有“高检署”检察官的同意令，就算是皇帝老子也进不去，该“立委”只好离去。

　　去年底“立法院”审查“国防预算”时，“立委”沈发惠耐心翻查机密预算细目，竟发现“联侦中心”对媒体记者、现退役将领、重要社团及社会人士进行监听及监控任务，白纸黑字写在预算书里。

　　民众对“联合侦防中心”很陌生，因为它秘密成立不满4年，在预算书里根本找不到，是任务编组的黑单位，借用长沙街台北“宪兵队”楼上办事，对“必要人物”从事广泛的监听与情搜任务。

　　“联侦中心”是在前“部长”李杰任内，由当时总政战局长陈邦治负责筹组的。缘由是李杰认为媒体屡次爆料军中弊案，但军方追查来源不得要领。检讨认为，因为法令对监听跟监等侵犯基本人权的侦查措施已有所限制，军方无法杜绝泄密。

　　于是“联合侦防中心”秘密纳编了“宪调组”、反情报总队、军事检察官等，以任务编组形态，集中作业，由军事检察官直接开出监听票，对特定军人和媒体记者搜证。

　　据了解，军方是挪用年度预算的“标余款”，即用剩下的钱，本应缴回公库，但军方自颁行政命令挪用，其中每年有两亿元拨给“联侦中心”使用。

　　撤销“联侦中心”

　　就在在野党“立委”质疑岛内监听浮滥之际，“国防部长”李天羽17日指出，他已下令即日解散前“部长”李杰任内成立的“联合侦防中心”。

　　有关官员透露，实因本周一“国防预算”公开部分审查时，“立委”苏起提案删减联二情报次长室的情报行政经费200万元，以惩罚“国防部”对这类“东厂”单位的纵容，所以李天羽最后让步。

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 4:06 PM 0 comments

  China, US delicately juggle Taiwan By Jing-dong Yuan, Sep 25, 2007
Asia Times Online

MONTEREY, California - Taiwan's bid for United Nations membership has again been rejected, action that was hailed by Beijing as a reaffirmation of the "one China" position and its claim of sovereignty over the island. However, the situation remains tenuous.

Taiwan's attempts for UN membership began in 1993 when the government of president Lee Teng-hui sought a seat in the international body under the name of the Republic of China (ROC). But this time the Chen Shui-bian administration sought to enter under the name "Taiwan", a provocative move that has incurred strong condemnation and even strong warnings from Washington. Even the Nationalist (Kuomintang) party, not to be outdone by Chen, called for its own referendum to return to the UN under the name "Republic of China".

These developments constitute serious challenges to both mainland China and the administration of US President George W Bush. For Washington, these are issues of commitments, priorities, and its relationship with Beijing.

For obvious reasons, Bush administration officials are concerned that Chen's move could provoke China to resort to "non-peaceful" means under its 2005 Anti-Secession Law in reaction to what is seen as attempts toward de jure independence. This in turn raises questions about US commitments to the defense of Taiwan under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

However, these commitments are to be honored only if there is unequivocal and unprovoked unilateral use of force against Taiwan by mainland China, not a carte blancheto Taipei regardless of what it does. Indeed, in recent years, the Bush administration has on many occasions stated that it is opposed to any unilateral change of the status quo by either side of the Taiwan Strait.

Within this context, Bush administration officials have become increasingly worried about Chen's apparent attempts to change the status quo and issued several warnings in recent months. US deputy assistant secretary of state Thomas Christensen, speaking at the US-Taiwan Business Council this month, warned Taipei against "needlessly provocative behavior" and expressed serious US concerns over the issue of name change in an upcoming referendum. While affirming US commitments to and friendship with Taiwan, he also emphasized that Washington would not "let Taipei define our position".

That Washington is so adamant and open on this issue is dictated by its priorities elsewhere, namely the war on terrorism and its quagmire in Iraq, and other strategically more urgent problems such as Iran's nuclear developments and the situation in the Middle East. The US can hardly afford being distracted by another crisis across the Taiwan Strait. It is therefore annoyed by what it sees as political posturing, unnecessary provocation, and potentially harmful actions against US interests.

US reactions to the referendum issue are also indicative of its changing relationship with China. The Bush administration came into office more than six years ago viewing China as a strategic competitor and determined to strengthen its alliances in Asia and support Taiwan in an effort to contain the rise of China. The events of September 11, 2001, changed that early assessment and have given Washington a different set of priorities. The administration has since redefined its strategic interests and recognizes the need for closer cooperation with Beijing.

The Sino-US relationship has evolved into one characterized as cooperative, constructive and candid or, to quote President Bush, "complex". Beijing and Washington cooperate on a whole range of issues, from the North Korean and Iranian nuclear challenges, to the environment and global warming, to the "global war on terrorism". China and the US have become ever more interdependent economically, with bilateral trade surpassing US$300 billion this year.

Both have come to recognize the importance of handling the delicate Taiwan issue. Washington seeks to maintain the status quo so it can stay focused on its "war on terrorism" and on combating the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Beijing recognizes the role that the US can play in reining in Taiwanese independence even as it continues its military preparation to deter and respond to such a scenario.

But Beijing is facing a serious challenge. It is quite clear that Chen Shui-bian's referendum plan is largely driven by Taiwan's election politics as much as by Chen's own craving for personal legacy. It is also obvious that despite serious warnings from both Washington and Beijing, the referendum is most likely going to take place. How Beijing should react is a test for the mainland leadership's acumen as well as resolve.

Handled well, the impact of the pending crisis could be absorbed, leaving maximum flexibility without either losing face or losing tempers. This is crucial in particular given the pending 2008 Summer Olympic Games and China's international reputation as a rising power.

For Beijing, there are three principles to keep in mind. The first is that Chen's motive for holding the referendum is to provoke. Overreaction hands Chen the very prize he seeks. And while the 2005 Anti-Secession Law defines the overall parameter of what is tolerable and what is not, Beijing should leave itself open to an extremely flexible interpretation.

Second, time is on the mainland's side. The fact that Chen has sought all kinds of tactics to push the edge of the envelope concerning de jure independence demonstrates his frustration over the futility of such attempts and the fear that such independence is becoming increasingly elusive for Taiwan. The mainland and the island have become economically more dependent, and many Taiwanese business people and the public in general prefer the status quo to uncertain and unpredictable change. Indeed, cross-Strait trade continues to expand; the first nine months of 2007 have already seen a 13% increase over the same period last year, and total two-way trade for 2007 is projected to reach US$110 billion, with the balance heavily favoring Taiwan. This is what worries Chen.

Finally, Beijing should be sanguine about the US role. While Washington is opposed to any unilateral change of the status quo and hence has strongly criticized Chen's referendum move, it does not share completely Beijing's vision for unification. The US continues to offer arms sales to Taiwan, with the most recently announced possible deals worth more than $2.2 billion, including P-3C Orion anti-submarine patrol aircraft and SM-2 anti-aircraft missiles. There are also reports of possible US sales of F-16s to Taiwan.

Clearly, US interests remain a Taiwan separated from the mainland. Herein lies the limitation to what Beijing can expect of Washington.


Dr Jing-dong Yuan is director of the East Asia non-proliferation program at the James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies and associate professor of international policy studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 9:01 AM 0 comments

  China may ask UN to vote on Taiwan as part of China Sat, 11 Aug 2007 GMT

Taipei - China, to block Taiwan from seeking to join the United Nations, plans to ask UN members to cast vote on whether Taiwan is part of the People's Republic of China, a newspaper said Sunday. The United Daily News quoted The Nelson Report, a daily newsletter on policy issues in Washington, as saying that the US was shocked that when Taiwan recently applied to join the UN, the UN rejected the bid by interpreting Resolution 2758 as ruling that Taiwan is part of the People's Republic of China (PRC).

Washington is worried that China may ask UN members to cast vote on whether Taiwan is part of the PRC. That would put the United States in an awkward position, because Washington will be asked to clarify its stance on Taiwan.

The US switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979, but it signed the Taiwan Relations Act, pledging to continue to sell defensive arms to Taiwan.

Since then, the US has maintained an ambiguous stance on Taiwan, neither supporting nor opposing Taiwan independence but leaving it as a matter for peaceful resolution.

The dispute over Taiwan's UN seat dates to the Chinese Civil War, which ended in 1949 when the victorious Communists founded the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland, forcing the Republic of China (ROC) government to move its seat to Taiwan.

The international community, refusing to recognize the PRC as the legitimate Chinese government, allowed the exiled ROC government to keep China's seat at the United Nations.

In 1971, the UN General Assembly passed Resolution 2758, accepting the PRC and expelling the ROC, or the Taiwan government.

Since 1993, Taiwan has tried to rejoin the UN under its official name as the Republic of China. After failing annually, this year Taiwan decided to apply for UN membership as Taiwan.

President Chen Shui-bian has sent two letters to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon requesting UN membership for Taiwan. Ban ignored the letters, saying the UN abides by Resolution 2758, which says that Taiwan is part of China.

Chen argued that Resolution 2758 has solved the problem of China's representation in the UN but leaves unresolved Taiwan's representation in the UN.

Chen claimed that Taiwan is a sovereign nation, currently recognized by 24 countries.

Taiwan's move is unlikely to succeed in the near future, as the overwhelming majority of the 192 UN member countries have diplomatic ties with China and accept China's claim to the island. China is also one of the five veto-wielding permanent members of the UN Security Council.

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 2:39 PM 0 comments

  Taiwan drops ‘China’ in identity move

By Mac William Bishop in Taipei and Mure Dickie in Beijing
Published: February 12 2007

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

Labels: China, reunification, Taiwan

  ¶ 11:42 AM 0 comments