金闲评
Monday, July 30, 2007
  China scandals evoke old Chicago
By Geoff Dyer
Published: July 22 2007, FT

When an American friend sent me an e-mail last week about the latest food scare in China – something about bottled water full of the wrong type of minerals – he titled it The Jungle, after Upton Sinclair’s 1906 novel exposing the grim realities of the Chicago meatpacking industry.

I added it to the long list of messages that have made the very same observation. For many Americans who have been watching the safety scandals that have engulfed Chinese exports to the US in recent months, Sinclair’s book is something of a road map for contemporary China.

In their own way, the tales about “filthy” catfish and poisonous toothpaste fit neatly into one of the grand narratives of our time, that China's booming economy is following a path similar to the US just over a century ago. Here is a continent-sized nation with new cities bursting with entrepreneurial energy and roads and railroads opening up once-isolated regions.

Such rapid expansion has left the institutions of government scrabbling to keep up, opening space for unscrupulous businessmen to cut every imaginable corner. Copies of The Jungle are being dusted off because as well as illuminating the dark side of hasty industrialisation, it also provoked outrage that helped pave the way for the creation of the Food and Drug Administration.

The uproar over Chinese products in the US is also an eye-opener about just how far globalisation has reached. No matter how much is written about the Chinese economy, it still has the capacity to surprise. It probably came as no shock for Americans to discover that their toys are made in China these days (with the possible exception of Lego), but I bet most did not know a few months ago that a quarter of imported seafood also came from the same country. How many chefs were aware that half the garlic consumed in the US is grown on Chinese farms?

Behind the indignation in the US about dodgy Chinese products, there has sometimes been another sentiment – a desire to turn back the clock to the time when China was only too happy to lock itself in a box and turn its back on the rest of the world. But that China no longer exists. Such is the scale of China's economy and so broad is its reach, there is no choice but to engage. Whether we like it or not, China's problems are now everyone's problems.

If food regulators in China cannot impose standards on the fish farms and vegetable producers they patrol, it is no longer just Chinese consumers at risk. The challenge facing regulators in Beijing is daunting, with hundreds of thousands of small companies operating in the industry, many with powerful connections to the local officials who should be keeping an eye on them.

The same goes for the foul air in Chinese cities. The other day, the Associated Press ran a story from the summit of Mount Bachelor in Oregon, 9,000ft above sea level, where a group of scientists has set up instruments to measure the increasing flow of soot particles that cross the Pacific from China. “This is, in effect, a fingerprint . . . the pollutants fingerprint,” one of the scientists said.

Angry American consumers can take heart that in today's globalised world, outrage also crosses borders. The US reports may have left some Chinese people feeling their companies are being victimised, but many more are concerned about the risks they themselves face and want more information.

As if on cue, another e-mail I got last week had the more intriguing title of “China's Upton Sinclair”. It included extracts from a book written in 2004 by a writer called Zhou Qing that describes in excruciating detail all the things residents of China have heard about the food supply but did not want to think about.

At a factory making pickled vegetables, he watched workers pour in insecticides to get rid of bugs. Or there is the Shanghai shop that fumigated cakes with sulphur powder and added industrial bleach to make them look whiter. Or the Nanchang drinks company that scraped off the sell-by date that had expired and added a new one to the bottles. Corruption and powerful local vested interests are always in the background of his tales – all written in the very best muck-raking tradition.

The big question is how quickly in China's one-party state, with its internet firewalls and media restrictions, such stories will translate into sustained pressure on the authorities. The other day I had a browse in some Shanghai bookshops and did manage to find The Jungle. But there were no copies of Zhou Qing's books.

*The writer is the FT's Shanghai correspondent
 
  中国人以何食为天?
作者:英国《金融时报》杰夫•代尔(Geoff Dyer)
2007年7月31日 星期二

最近,一位美国朋友给我发送了一封电子邮件,谈到了中国最新的食品恐慌——这次引发恐慌的是加错矿物质的瓶装矿泉水。那封邮件的标题“屠场”(The Jungle),来自厄普顿•辛克莱(Upton Sinclair)1906年那部揭露芝加哥肉类加工业恐怖现实的同名小说。

我将这封邮件加到众多关注相同问题的信息中。许多美国人正在关注中国向美国出口的商品近几个月卷入的安全丑闻,对他们来说,辛克莱此书似乎是当代中国的路线图。

有关“脏”鲶鱼和有毒牙膏的故事,以它们自己的方式,补充着我们这个时代的宏伟叙述:中国迅速发展的经济,走上了与美国一个世纪前类似的道路:一个大国,新的城市充满创业精神,公路和铁路打开曾经封闭的地区。

此种迅速扩张使政府机构忙于应付,使无良商人在所有可能的角落钻空子。小说《屠场》被人重新想起,既是因为它点出了快速工业化过程的阴暗面,也因为它曾激起强烈的愤怒,促使美国政府建立食品药品监督管理局(Food and Drug Administration, FDA)。

中国产品在美国引起的骚动,也是令人惊叹的一件事,表明了全球化的影响之大。无论有多少对中国经济的描述,它依然能让人感到惊讶。对于美国人来说,发现如今他们的玩具是中国制造的(乐高(Lego)或许是例外),可能并不意外。但是,我打赌他们大多数人在几个月前并不知道,美国四分之一的进口海鲜也来自中国。而又有多少厨师知道,美国消费的一半大蒜来自中国的农田。

在美国,不可靠的中国产品引起的义愤背后,有时还有另外一种情感——渴望回到中国陶醉于闭关锁国、背向整个世界的岁月。但是,那个中国再也不存在了。中国经济规模如此之大,影响力如此之广,我们别无选择,只能与之接触。不管我们喜欢与否,中国的问题现在就是所有人的问题。

如果中国的食品监督部门不能在其监管的养鱼场和蔬菜生产商那里强制推行标准,处于危险之中的就不再只是中国消费者了。北京监管部门面临的挑战令人生畏,因为中国的食品行业中有数十万家小企业,其中许多企业与应当监督它们的地方官员有着密切的联系。

中国城市受污染的空气也属于这种情况。前几天,美联社(Associated Press)的一篇来自美国俄勒冈州独身山(Mount Bachelor)山顶的报道称,在海拔9000英尺的高度,一群科学家架起了仪器,测量来自中国并飘过太平洋,而且日益增多的煤烟颗粒。一位科学家表示:“事实上,这是一个指纹……污染物的指纹。”

愤怒的美国消费者可以宽慰的是,在当今的全球化世界中,愤怒也能穿越国境。美国的报道或许使一些中国人认为他们的企业成为了受害者,但有更多人正担心他们自己面临的危险,而且希望获得更多信息。

仿佛是一种启示,我前一阵子收到的另一封电子邮件有一个更加吸引人的标题“中国的厄普顿•辛克莱”。信中附有一本书的摘录,那本书的作者叫周勍,此书于2004年出版。周勍以详细到可怕的笔触描述了中国居民所有听说过,但不愿去想的食品供应问题。

在一个制作泡菜的工厂,他看到工人们往泡菜里倾倒杀虫剂杀虫;有一家上海商店,用硫磺粉熏蛋糕,并加入工业漂白剂,为的是让蛋糕看上去更白;南昌饮料公司刮掉了过期产品的销售截止日期,并在瓶底贴上新的日期。他描述的故事背后,总是有腐败和强大的地方既得利益。周勍的故事全都以是最优秀的、揭露丑闻的传统写成。

一个很大的问题是,在拥有网络防火墙和媒体限制的一党制中国,这种故事要多快才能转化为对当局持续不断的压力。前几天,我逛了一些上海的书店,最终找到了《屠场》一书。但是,我没有找到周勍的书。

本文作者是英国《金融时报》驻上海记者。

译者/ 何黎
 
  TERRITORY FACES FUTURE WHERE WOMEN OUTNUMBER MEN
By Robin Kwong in Hong Kong
Tuesday, July 31, 2007, FT

The trickle of mainland Chinese migrants into Hong Kong is having a profound effect on its demographics, as the government projects that in 30 years there will be just three men for every four women in the territory, writes Robin Kwong in Hong Kong.

The gender imbalance is expected to be among the worst in the world and will be a marked change from just six years ago when Hong Kong had slightly more men than women. The world average is about 106 men for every 100 women.

Hong Kong's demographic shift is expected to be the accumulated result of having 150 people each day – or 55,000 a year – emigrate to the city from mainland China.

With over 20,000 Hong Kong men taking mainland wives every year, the majority of Chinese entering Hong Kong on such “one-way permits” are women coming to the city to be reunited with husbands.

“This is the biggest factor affecting Hong Kong's male/female ratio,” says Fung Hing-wang, Hong Kong's commissioner for census and statistics.

By 2036, the addition of 150 people a day is expected to boost Hong Kong's population by 1.6m, and will account for practically all of Hong Kong's population growth over that period.

The gender imbalance is further exacerbated if the hundreds of thousands of foreign domestic workers who live and work in the city are taken into account. In the 25-44 age group, there will be just 55 men for every 100 women by 2036.

Hong Kong women, faced with the increasingly difficult prospects of finding a local husband, have already started looking across the border for potential spouses. There were 6,483 marriages between a Hong Kong woman and a mainland man last year. The figure is expected to rise in coming years.
 
  30年后香港地区将男少女多
英国《金融时报》邝彦晖(Robin Kwong)香港报道
2007年7月31日 星期二

中国内地赴港移民的人数,正在对香港的人口统计学产生深刻的影响。香港政府预计,30年之后,香港地区男女比例将为3:4。

香港未来的这种性别失衡,有可能成为全球最严重的性别失衡问题,并且与6年前的情况截然相反:当时,香港的男性还略多于女性。世界平均的男女比例大约为106:100。

人们认为,香港人口统计学的变化,是每天接收150名(每年约5.5万名)中国内地赴港移民日积月累的结果。

由于每年有2万多名香港男性迎娶内地妻子,所以,大多数通过这种“单程通行证”从中国内地进入香港的人,都是来香港与丈夫团聚的女性。

港府统计处处长冯兴宏(Fung Hing-wang)表示:“这是影响香港男女比例的最大因素。”

每天增加150人,到2036年,预计将使香港人口增长160万,实际上将成为香港这段时期人口增长的全部来源。

如果把在香港生活和工作的数十万外籍家庭佣工考虑在内,这种性别失衡就会进一步加剧。到2036年,25岁到44岁年龄段的男女比例将达到55:100。

面对找个当地老公配偶日益困难的前景,香港女性已经开始跨境寻觅潜在配偶。去年,香港女性与中国内地男性结婚的有6483例。预计这个数字将来还会提高。

译者/徐柳
 
  How Chinese bump up HK numbers
By Sky Canaves and Tom Mitchell in Hong Kong
Published: July 30 2007, FT

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/c219daa0-3eb4-11dc-bfcf-0000779fd2ac.html

Last year, 40 per cent of the 65,626 babies born in Hong Kong were just visiting. They were born to mainland Chinese mothers transiting the territory on tourist visas and hoping to give their children something that many others have endured terrible hardships for or even died trying to obtain – the right of abode in Hong Kong.

Immigrants made Hong Kong. In each of China’s three decades of Maoist isolation, from 1949 to 1979, a million Chinese slipped through the bamboo curtain to begin new lives in the then UK colony, transforming it from a sleepy entrepôt into a regional export power. One-third of Hong Kong’s 7m people were born in China, including Li Ka-shing, the territory’s richest man.

In pictures: Asia immigration

Modern Hong Kong’s borders, by comparison, are well sealed. In 1980, the colony ended its so-called “home base” policy, whereby residency was granted to anyone who evaded Mao’s border guards and made it to Hong Kong’s urban areas – sometimes after swimming through shark-infested waters. In its place, a strict annual quota system was adopted.

Ten years after China resumed sovereignty over the territory, Hong Kong continues to cap immigration from the mainland at just 150 people a day, or 55,000 a year, with most of the quota reserved for the spouses, children and parents of Hong Kong residents.

For Donald Tsang, Hong Kong’s chief executive, that is not enough. He envisions a future in which Hong Kong could ultimately be home to as many as 10m people. “We are immigrating a lot of people but we are not aggressive enough,” Mr Tsang said in a recent interview with the Financial Times. “We have to continue to invest a lot more in education. We will have to attract a lot more people from all walks of life, all nationaities into Hong Kong to strengthen its place as an international financial centre.”

Mainland mothers giving birth in Hong Kong have been pilloried as opportunistic spongers who often skip town without settling medical bills, and in February the government began demanding a $5,000 (€3,650, £2,470) fee from expectant mothers crossing the border.

In fact, about 36 per cent of the 26,132 mainland mothers who delivered their babies in Hong Kong in the first 10 months of last year were married to local residents, reflecting the degree to which Hong Kong men are increasingly seeking brides in China. Of the 50,300 marriages recorded in Hong Kong last year, 21,400 (just over 40 per cent) involved a cross-border spouse. In 1997 there were just 2,600 such cross-border unions.

“The new measures have been able to introduce an orderly influx of women from the mainland,” says Dr Kwok Ka-ki, who represents the medical sector in Hong Kong’s legislature. “But if the woman is the wife of a Hong Kong resident she should be given different treatment. Sometime down the line the mothers will have the right to come to Hong Kong and the children should have the same rights as their Hong Kong fathers.”

Despite the restrictions, Hong Kong needs new babies. With just 9.6 births per 1,000 people, it now has one of the world’s lowest birth rates. Since 1961, the percentage of the population aged 65 or older has doubled every 20 years. By 2031, more than a quarter of the population will be elderly, putting an impossible strain on the public health system.

“Life expectancy in Hong Kong is the highest in the world. In fact we are higher than Japan,” Mr Tsang says. “But our fertility rate is the lowest in the world. That can only be bridged in the short term by immigration and in the longer term by heavy investment in education and training.”

A rapidly ageing population and plummeting birth rates have given rise to ad hoc policy measures to enhance recruitment of what the government terms “high-quality” professionals.

Since visa procedures for qualified mainland professionals were eased in 2003, about 17,000 have arrived in Hong Kong. But that is far fewer than the government’s estimated shortfall of 100,000 university-educated workers – only one in five members of Hong Kong’s workforce has a tertiary education. And for those who do come, culture shock can be an issue.

“When I first came to Hong Kong it was too compact, too crowded and too noisy. I needed time to adjust to the environment and the long working hours,” says William Liu, the mainland-born head of China research at CLSA, a regional investment bank. He has, he says, since come to appreciate Hong Kong’s cosmopolitan qualities.

Another programme introduced last year, the Quality Migrants Scheme, uses a points-based system to encourage highly qualified foreigners to move to the city. Though it received widespread publicity for attracting several Olympic medallists and piano virtuosos from the mainland, in the eight months after the scheme’s launch less than 20 per cent of its annual 1,000-visa quota had been filled.

In part, this is because young, highly educated Chinese face a wealth of options. Professionals fluent in Mandarin Chinese and English are in demand across the region, especially in home-sweet-home China.

Ellen Shen, who is working in GE Capital’s Hong Kong office on a six-month training visa, is a Shanghai native and looks forward to settling back in her hometown. “There’s always the feeling that it’s not your own place, no matter that it’s Hong Kong with so many Chinese around.

Additional reporting by Robin Kwong
 
  香港的中国内地人越来越多
英国《金融时报》斯凯•卡纳韦斯(Sky Canaves)、汤姆•米切尔(Tom Mitchell)香港报道
2007年7月31日 星期二

去年,在香港出生的65625名婴儿中,有40%只是“到此一游”。生育他们的是中国内地持旅游签注过境的妈妈们,她们希望给予自己的孩子其他许多人历经艰难险阻、甚至拼了命也要得到的东西——香港居留权。

移民造就了香港。从1949年到1979年毛泽东闭关锁国的三十年中,每十年都有100万中国人偷偷穿越“竹幕”(bamboo curtain,译注:西方用以形容共产党国家中国与外界隔绝的状态),到当时的英国殖民地开始新生活,把香港从一个昏昏欲睡的贸易中心变成了一个亚洲有影响力的出口经济体。香港的700万人口中,有三分之一是在中国出生的,其中包括香港首富李嘉诚(Li Ka-shing)。

相比之下,现代香港的边界得到了严密封锁。1980年,香港取消了所谓的“抵垒政策 (home base)”,代之以严格的年度配额制度。根据“抵垒政策”,任何避开中国内地边境警戒,成功进入香港市区的人——有时需要游过有鲨鱼出没的水域,都可以获得居留权。

在中国恢复对香港行使主权十年之后,香港仍在对来自内地的移民设定上限,每天只能有150人——或每年5.5万人,而大部分配额留给了香港居民的配偶、子女和父母。

对于香港特首曾荫权(Donald Tsang)来说,这还不够。按照他的设想,香港未来最终可以成为多达1000万人口的家园。曾荫权最近在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示:“我们现在有很多移民入境,但我们的力度还不够。”

一些在香港生孩子的内地妈妈,经常不付医药费就偷偷离开了香港。今年2月,香港政府开始要求越境待产的妈妈交纳5000美元的费用。

实际上,去年1月至10月在香港生孩子的26132位大陆母亲中,约有36%的人是嫁给了当地居民,这反映出有越来越多的香港男性到内地寻找配偶。去年在香港登记的5.03万桩婚姻中,有2.14万桩(略多于40%)涉及跨境婚姻。1997年,这种跨境联姻只有2600例。

尽管存在这些限制,但香港需要新生儿。香港每1000人中只有9.6个新生儿,目前是全球出生率最低的地方之一。自1961年以来,香港65岁以上老人占总人口的比例每20 年就翻一倍。到2031年,香港超过四分之一的人口将是老年人,将对公共医疗体系造成无法承受的压力。

人口迅速老龄化和出生率日益下降,促使香港出台了更多专项政策措施,以推进政府所谓的“高素质”专业人才引进工作。

自2003年放宽内地合格专业人士的签注手续以来,已有约1.7万名专业人士来到香港。但这距离香港政府估计的10万名受过大学教育的工人的缺口仍相去甚远——只有五分之一的香港工人接受过高等教育。而对于那些来到香港的人,文化冲击可能也是一个问题。

在内地出生的刘炜(William Liu)目前担任地区投行里昂证券(CLSA)的中国研究部主管,他表示:“当我第一次来香港时,我觉得这里过于紧凑,过于拥挤,也过于嘈杂。我需要时间来适应环境和长时间的工作。”自那以后,他已逐渐开始欣赏香港作为国际都市的特质。

香港去年推出的另一个计划“优秀人才入境计划”(Quality Migrant Admission Scheme),利用积分制来鼓励高素质外来人口移居香港。尽管香港因吸引了来自内地的数名奥运会奖牌得主和钢琴演奏家而得到广泛宣传,但在该计划推出后的8个月内,引进的优秀人才尚不足每年1000个签注名额的20%。

在一定程度上,这是因为受过高等教育的中国内地年轻人有多种选择。在亚洲地区,说一口流利普通话和英语的专业人士非常抢手,在内地尤其如此。

在GE Capital香港办事处供职的Ellen Shen拿着6个月的香港培训签注,她是上海人,希望回到自己的家乡定居。“尽管香港有如此多的内地人,但总感觉这里不是你自己的地方。”

译者/何黎
 
  Market insight: What risk managers have learnt since the shock of 1998
By Michael Gordon
Published: July 19 2007, FT

Will the troubles in the US subprime market pass by as a little local difficulty – or will they start a rout across capital markets and bring to an end the great bull run in a broad range of asset classes? That’s the big question faced by those in capital markets right now.

Can history teach us anything on this score? Well, it’s certainly worth looking at the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in September 1998. The near-demise of this ­mammoth hedge fund marked a turning-point for credit markets, hitting brokers and banks hard.

The debacle is less than a decade ago, but banks were smaller and less diversified firms in those days and so less able to absorb large shocks. Also, their risk management systems were not as well developed as they are now. When further risks emerged in Russia, the banks and brokers were not well-placed to handle the fallout.

The credit quality of the lending banks started to slip, triggering concerns about systemic risk. Spreads on swap instruments – proxies for banking liquidity that involve investors exchanging assets or an exposure to a cash flow – widened, which in turn put additional pressure on financial companies. As the liquidity crisis deepened, asset prices began to fall sharply. When the crunch ultimately came, there was a severe dislocation in asset prices.

The extent of this turmoil is neatly illustrated by the performance of investment banking stocks at the time. Sector shares tanked, losing a large chunk of their value in just a few weeks. Spreads widened, indicating a contraction in banking liquidity.

Wind forward to today. Does the collapse of confidence in the US subprime market have any similarities to the LTCM affair? Well, many of the weaknesses of the banks and brokers that emerged in 1998 have since been addressed. They are larger, more diversified institutions. They have also invested a great deal in risk management. Overall, the banks look far more resilient.

In addition, the banks have shifted much of the underlying credit risk into the hands of other investors. By parcelling up the risk through instruments such as collateralised debt obligations that are then sliced and sold to investors, the bulls argue that risk has been spread so widely that a single large failure can be absorbed more easily: the impact would be a thousand small dents rather a big hole.

Sure, there have been some justified concerns about the pricing of debt to support leveraged buy-outs, as well as worries about the volume of such lending. But, overall, corporate credit quality remains good. And the credit quality of banks has held up so far. The ratings agencies may move shortly to reassess CDOs, but the investment banks have seen no deterioration in their own ratings.

That's probably why there have been fewer concerns about systemic risk this time round. Some credit asset prices have corrected but broad liquidity remains sound. The bulls argue that what we are seeing is an orderly repricing of risk. Now take a look at the share prices of the investment banks. There has been no great sell-off as there was in 1998.

So is it really different this time? Have product innovation and industry consolidation helped create greater resilience across the financial system? Perhaps. But the bears will argue that while the banks may have insulated themselves against serious defaults, another group of investors now bears risks that are so complex in their structure that few really understand the implications.

They'll be less than happy when the music stops. And any credit meltdown is likely to hurt banks anyway. The bears also argue that CDOs and other innovative structures have, in fact, made the financial system less resilient because of their complexity and lack of transparency.

So far the markets have taken bad news in their stride, easily digesting the problems at two Bear Stearns hedge funds. But there is a strong sense in many quarters that the party is coming to an end. The subprime woes look a good candidate for the party-pooper, but if history teaches us anything it is that the biggest threats to markets are rarely the obvious ones.

*The writer is chief investment officer at Fidelity International
 
  1998年金融危机的教训
作者:富达国际基金首席投资官迈克尔•戈登(Michael Gordon)为英国《金融时报》撰稿
2007年7月31日 星期二

美国次级抵押贷款市场的问题,是会作为一个小小的局部难题擦身而过呢,还是会形成一场跨资本市场的骚乱,结束众多资产类别的大牛市?这是资本市场参与者目前面临的最大问题。

在这一点上我们可否以史为鉴?回顾一下长期资本管理公司(Long Term Capital Management)1998年9月的破产,当然是值得的。这只巨型对冲基金的几近没顶,标志着信贷市场的一个转折点,券商和银行都受到很大冲击。

这次崩溃距今不足10年,但当时的银行规模较小,多元化程度不深,所以吸收大规模冲击的能力也比较弱。另外,它们的风险管理系统也没有今天这么发达。当更多风险出现在俄罗斯时,银行和券商都没有做好应对后果的准备。

贷款银行的信贷质量开始下降,引发了对系统风险的担忧。互换工具(即投资者交换资产或现金流的影响,体现的是银行的流动性)利差的扩大,反过来对金融公司构成额外压力。随着流动性危机加深,资产价格开始大幅下滑。当危机最终来临时,资产价格错位已异常严重。

投资银行类股票当时的表现,清楚说明了这场混乱的程度。投行类股价格一泻千里,短短几周内市值大幅缩水。利差的扩大,显示出银行流动性的收缩。

快进到今天。对美国次级抵押贷款市场信心的崩溃与长期资本管理公司的事件有什么相似之处吗?银行和券商1998年表现出的许多弱点此后都已得到解决。他们现在规模更大,更加多元化。他们还在风险管理方面投入了大笔资金。总的来说,银行的适应能力似乎增强了很多。

另外,银行已经将大量潜在信贷风险转移到投资者手中。看涨人士认为,通过运用债务抵押债券(CDO)等工具将风险打包,然后再分割卖给投资者,风险已经分散得十分广泛,因此银行可以更轻松地承受一次大的失败:冲击会造成上千个小坑,而不是一个大洞。

确实,对于支持杠杆收购的债务的定价,市场一直存在一些合理的担忧,对这类举债的规模也感到忧虑。但总的来说,企业信贷质量保持良好。银行的信贷质量迄今也没有下降。评级机构可能不久就会重新评估CDO,但投行自己的投资级别并没有恶化。

这可能就是这次对系统风险的担忧没有上次那么多的原因。一些信贷资产价格已出现调整,但广义流动性保持稳健。看涨人士认为,我们现在所目睹的,是风险的有序再定价。现在看看这些投资银行的股价,至今还没有出现1998年那样的大跌。

那么这次真的不一样了吗?产品创新和行业整合是否真的帮助整个金融系统提高了适应性?可能是的。但看跌人士会认为,虽然银行也许摆脱了严重违约的影响,但另一群投资者现在承担起了这些风险,而这些风险结构非常复杂,很少有人真正理解其含义。

曲终人散之时,他们的感觉不会很好。毕竟,任何的信贷崩溃都可能伤及银行。看跌人士还认为,由于其复杂性和缺乏透明度,CDO及其它创新产品事实上降低了金融系统的适应性。

迄今为止,市场面对坏消息时表现得还算从容,轻而易举地消化了贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)旗下两家基金的问题。但现在,很多领域都有盛宴即将结束的强烈感觉。次级贷款灾难看起来很像是盛宴终结者,但如果说我们可以从历史中学到点什么的话,那就是:最大的威胁很少来自明显的问题。

本文作者是富达国际基金(Fidelity International)首席投资官。

译者/李碧波
 
  Lack of women in boardroom 'a competitive disadvantage'
By Christopher Adams
Published: July 30 2007, FT

Companies without women in senior boardroom roles are at "a competitive disadvantage" and should ask themselves where their talented employees have gone, says Kitty Ussher.

With women counting for just 2 per cent of the top jobs in FTSE-100 companies, equality campaigners have forecast that it will take 40 years before they reach the same level of representation as men in the boardroom despite accounting for almost half the workforce.And, in London's financial district, it is claimed that harassment and sexual discrimination remain commonplace. The courts have seen a string of alleged "sexism in the City" cases.

Ms Ussher, though steering clear of the court cases, said at least one chief executive had raised the under-representation of women at the top of UK companies "as something that needs to be addressed". "My view on this has always been . . . that companies will do best if they recruit the best talent and they keep the best talent," she said. "And, if they're not keeping some of their talent pool, that puts them at a disadvantage.

"If I was a CEO and I found people, predominantly but not totally mothers and parents of young children, deciding to leave at a certain stage in their life, I would say, 'Why are we losing the talent?'

"If you flip it around the other way, there's also an issue about certain sectors of society not getting access to credit. Why is it that people from certain ethnic backgrounds or a certain gender are not succeeding so well as entrepreneurs and there's actually no factual evidence that they are less capable?"
 
  没有女董事 公司处“劣势”
作者:英国《金融时报》克里斯托弗•亚当斯(Christopher Adams)
2007年7月31日 星期二

英国政治家基蒂•厄谢尔(Kitty Ussher)认为,如果一家公司的董事会中没有女性任职,那么该公司将处于“竞争劣势”;而这些公司应该扪心自问,自己那些有才华的雇员都到哪里去了。

在富时100指数成分股公司的顶级职位中,女性只占2%。男女平等运动人士预计,以这种情况看,尽管男女在员工总数中几乎各占一半,但要让董事会中的女性比例与男性持平,尚需40年时间。而且,据称在伦敦金融区中心,骚扰和性别歧视仍很常见。法庭上经常出现一系列涉嫌“金融城大男子主义”的案例。

虽然没有谈及法庭案例,但厄谢尔指出,至少有一位首席执行官曾经提出,女性在英国公司高层代表名额不足是个“需要解决的问题”。“我对这个问题的看法一向如此,公司招募到最佳人才并且留住最佳人才,才会有最佳表现,”她表示。“如果它们不能留住某些人才,就会让自己处于劣势。”

“如果我是CEO,当我发现有人(绝大多数是家有小孩的父母,但不全是)在人生的某个阶段决定离职时,我就会说:‘我们为什么要失去这个人才?'”

“反过来看,还有一个社会某些领域缺乏信誉的问题。为什么某些具有特定种族背景或特定性别的人无法取得企业家那样的成功?其实并没有什么事实证据表明他们的能力较差。”

译者/徐柳
 
  书信用语“商祺”的意思
Laser.NET

今天我到网上搜了一下“顺祝商祺”,才发现这个原来是 中国书信礼仪 中的问候祝颂语。现在的人也很少用笔写信了,即使写信或者写电子邮件也很少使用这些文言词了,一般也就是“恭祝身体健康,万事如意”之类的祝贺语。

在以前的书信中经常会看到“X祺”,“X安”,“X福”,“X禧”,“X吉”之类的祝福,比如“商祺”,“文祺”,“近祺”,“筹安”,“德安”,“客安”,“冬安”,“财安”,“曼福”,“年禧”,“新禧”,“春禧”等等。

关于祝颂的方式也根据对象的辈分和尊卑有关,如给长辈写信一般用“敬请福安”,“敬颂崇祺”,同样给上级写信一般用“恭请”,“敬请”,“祗请”等,给平辈写信一般“即请大安”,“顺祝商祺”,给晚辈用“顺问”即可。

有好多的词读起来真的好拗口,中国作为礼仪之邦,文化果然博大精深啊~~;) 虽然拗口,但是现在的职场礼仪中偶而还有人用,这里贴出来给大家简单了解一下。

“祺”取吉祥之意﹐“商祺”僅用於商業中﹐意思差不多等於白話中的“生意興隆”﹐詳見﹕
http://www.cbs.polyu.edu.hk/ctlydial/homepage/word.html

结尾的敬词:

1﹑请安:

用于祖父母及父母:恭叩 金安、敬请福安 肃请 金安。

用于亲友长辈:恭请 福绥、敬请 履安敬叩 崇安 只请提安、敬请 颐安、虔清 康安。

用于老师:敬请 尘安、恭请 道发、肃请海安、虔请 讲安。

用于亲友平辈:敬候 佳祉 并候 近安、顺颂起居、顺侯大安、敬颂 台安 顺颂 时绥。

用于亲友晚辈:即询 近佳、即问 近好、附颂清安。

用于有祖父及父母而在一处者:敬请侍安、敬颂 侍福、并候侍祺。

用于夫妇同居者:敬请 俪安、顺颂双安、敬颂 俪祉(祺)。

用于政界:敬请 勋安、恭请 钧安、只请政安。

用于军界:敬请 戎安、恭请 麾安、肃请捷安。

用于学界:只颂 撰祺、只请 著安、顺请、文安、并请学安、即颂文绥、即候 文祺。

用于商界:即请 财安、敬候 筹安、顺颂筹祺。

用于旅客:敬请 旅安、藉颂 旅祺、顺询旅祉。

用于家居者:敬请 潭安、并颁 潭福、顺颂潭祺。

用于贺婚:恭请 燕喜、恭贺 大喜、恭请喜安。

用于贺年:恭贺 年禧、恭贺 新禧、即颂岁禧。

用于吊唁:此候 孝履、顺问 苫次、专候素履。

用于问病:敬请 愈安、即请 卫安、敬祝早痊。

用于时令问候:敬请 春安、顺颂 春祉、敬请夏安、并颂暑祺敬请 秋安、并候 秋绥、敬请 冬安、此请 裘安、敬请炉安。

用于当日问候:即颂 晨安、即请 早安、此请午安、即颂晚安、即请 刻安、顺候 日祉、即候 时祉。

2﹑署名下的敬辞:

用于祖父母及父母:叩禀、敬禀、拜禀、肃禀、谨禀、叩上。

用于尊长:谨禀、谨上、拜上、谨肃、敬肃、敬启、谨启。

用于平辈:谨启、谨白、手启、手上、顿首、拜启、上言、拜言、启、上、白。

用于晚辈:手谕、手示、手泐、手草、草示、谕。

用于复信:肃复、手复、谨复、复。

用于不具名:名正肃(另具名片)、各心肃、各心印、知恕具、两知。

用于补述:又启、又及、又陈、再及、再陈。

3﹑附候语:

问候尊长:令尊(或令堂)大人前,乞代叱名请安。某伯前未及另禀,乞即叱名请安。

问候平辈:某兄弟前祈代致候不另。某兄处未及另函乞代致意。

问候晚辈:顺候令郎佳吉。并问令郎等近好。

代长辈附候:家父嘱笔问候。某伯嘱笔问候。

代平辈附候:家兄附笔请安,某兄附笔道候。

代幼辈附候:小儿侍叩。小孙随叩。某某禀笔请安。


〈形〉


(形声。从示,其声。本义:幸福;吉祥) 同本义


祺,吉也。――《说文》


寿考维祺。――《诗·大雅·行苇》


唯春之祺。――《汉书·礼乐志》。注:“福也。”


又如:祺祥(幸福吉祥);祺福(幸福)。书信中用于祝颂语。如:近祺;文祺;时祺


祺qí吉祥,福气:文~。时~。
 
Sunday, July 29, 2007
  Europeans to Bank Without Borders

29.07.2007 Deutsche Welle ©

Banking abroad will be as easy as banking at home once SEPA gets goingBanking abroad will be as easy as banking at home once SEPA gets going

Europe is on course to adopt a uniform payment system next year that will replace all others and simplify transactions for people across the continent, regardless of membership in the euro-zone.

The Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) will give the 490 million Europeans in the EU and the European Economic Community a uniform system for domestic and international payments, whether their countries have adopted the euro or not.

"SEPA will offer many advantages for the business community and consumers," said Hans-Joachim Massenberg, deputy head of Germany's federal association of banks. "The Single Euro Payments Area will also be an important step forward for the EU internal market."

National methods of payment, such as bank transfers and debit and credit cards, will, however, continue to exist during the transition period. But Massenberg said he expected that by 2015 at the latest SEPA would be the only system for payments in use in the EU and EEC, which includes Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

In the EU currently, individuals, businesses and public authorities conduct around 60 billion transactions yearly using their bank accounts, mainly through bank transfers, direct debits and credit card payments. Nearly a quarter of those transactions are carried out in Germany, which has the largest population and economy in the EU.

Germans eschew checks

But each country has its own regulations and technical standards for such transactions, and methods differ.

Hans-Joachim MassenbergHans-Joachim Massenberg

In France, for example, checks are commonly used, while they're rarely employed in Germany. German bank customers usually opt for debit withdrawals -- particularly for covering regular payments like rent or electricity bills -- which they employ twice as much as the average European does. Brits prefer to pay with credit cards. The Portuguese and the Greeks hardly use debit withdrawals at all.

"The goal is an integrated market for payment services in which fair competition prevails and there's no differentiation between cross-border and national payments," Massenberg said.

IBAN, BIC -- common currency of the future

Thus the use of international bank account numbers (IBAN), international bank identifier codes (BIC) and standardized forms will become obligatory. That's already been the practice since 2003 for standard EU bank transfers within the euro zone.

The new regulations apply to bank transfers and debit and credit cards. Debit withdrawals across borders will also be introduced. For residents there will no longer be any difference between using debit and credit cards at home or elsewhere in the EU and EEC. Banks will be expected to charge the same fees for cross-border euro payments within SEPA as for comparable domestic payments, and they will be just as fast, safe and easy.

Multinational companies are likely to profit the most from SEPA. Instead of maintaining bank accounts in each country in which they do business, they'll be able to work from one account for most of the continent. At the end of each working day, they'll be able to quickly establish their bank balance without referring to a multitude of accounts.


 
Thursday, July 26, 2007
  Why the Americans and Brits do not save for a rainy day
By John Kay
Published: July 17 2007, FT

The inveterate spending habits of rich American households are financed by the thrift of poor Chinese peasants. The explanation of this paradox has several elements, but the contribution of financial market deregulation is a paradox in itself. The more highly developed a country's retail financial services, the less that country saves.

The US, followed by the UK, has the most sophisticated range of products available to savers and investors in the Group of Eight rich countries. The large continental European economies – France, Germany and Italy – follow some way behind, and Japan and Russia come after that. That ranking is also the ranking of national savings rates, with the US and the UK at the bottom and Japan and Russia at the top.

Only the worthy Canadians – who benefit from American financial expertise and products but retain the thrift and caution appropriate to their chilly climate – are an exception to the general rule. These rankings – particularly the low savings rates of Britain and the US – are long- established and firmly entrenched.

Liberal financial markets give wider opportunities to save and to borrow, but they expand opportunities to borrow even more than they expand opportunities to save. Britain and the US have the most competitive mortgage markets, and have also been pioneers in equity release schemes that enable people to spend the capital gains accrued in their homes. These countries were also the first to adopt credit cards, and they still make the most use of them.

Italy, by contrast, has relatively less lending for house purchases than any other developed country, even though it has a high rate of owner occupation: well-meaning but inept regulation has inhibited the evolution of both the mortgage market and the rental market.

The common myth is that young Italian men remain at home because they cannot tear themselves away from Mamma's cooking. A more likely explanation is that they can find nowhere else to live. Italian law protects consumers by making it almost impossible to repossess a house, which achieves the intended effect in an unintended way by making it difficult to obtain a mortgage in the first place. When Mamma and son are not savouring the bolognese, they are both busily saving to find the substantial deposit needed for his house purchase.

Social habits and economic institutions are mutually reinforcing. German banks are conservative lenders, and German households suspicious of debt. This creates a frame of mind that justifies the old joke that banks will lend only to someone who doesn't need the money. And these banks are right to behave that way, because anyone who does need the money has stepped outside established cultural norms.

A wider and more attractive range of investment opportunities does not necessarily lead to more saving. If saving were a commodity like any other, better returns and wider choice would make saving more appealing.

But saving is not an intrinsic good; it is a means to future consumption. If you can expect – or are led to believe you can expect – indefinite double-digit returns from your stocks, you need put aside correspondingly less to achieve any particular goal. And savings have a precautionary purpose – what an older generation used to describe as providing for a rainy day. But the more options you have when a rainy day arrives, the less you need precautionary saving. The credit card and access to the equity in your home are always available.

None of this means that financial market deregulation is a bad thing. But I used to believe that the justification for an active financial system was that it made it easier to garner the funds needed to build schools and factories, shops and offices.

Yet active financial systems don't build more schools and factories, shops and offices. They are associated with higher shares of consumption and lower shares of investment in national income. The role of a developed financial system is to enable us to buy a Wii as soon as it appears in the shops and spend our retirement cruising the Caribbean.
 
  美国人为什么不存钱
作者:英国《金融时报》专栏作家约翰•凯(John Kay)
2007年7月26日 星期四

美国富裕家庭根深蒂固的消费习惯,是靠中国穷苦农民的节俭来资助的。对这种矛盾现象的解释包含几个要素,不过,金融市场解除管制这个因素本身就是一种矛盾。一个国家的零售金融服务越是高度发达,这个国家的储蓄也就越少。

在八国集团(G8)富裕国家中,美国(随后是英国)的储蓄者和投资者能获得种类最完善的金融产品。在这方面,欧洲大陆大型经济体——法国、德国和意大利略微落后,再往后是日本和俄罗斯。这个排名也是国家储蓄率的排名,美国和英国排在底部,日本和俄罗斯则位于顶端。

只有可敬的加拿大人是这个一般规则的例外——加拿大人得益于美国的金融专长和产品,却保留了与寒冷气候相称的节俭与谨慎。这些排名(尤其是英国和美国的低储蓄率)由来已久,而且根深蒂固。

自由金融市场提供了广泛的储蓄和借贷机会,但它们带来的借贷机会远超储蓄机会。英国和美国有最具竞争力的按揭市场,在股本释放计划方面也一直是先锋,这些计划让人们花掉住宅的增值。美英还是首先采用信用卡的国家,并仍然是最大限度利用信用卡的国家。

与此相反,尽管意大利的房屋自有率很高,但相对来说,它比任何其它发达国家的购房贷款都少:用意良好却不适当的监管,限制了按揭和租赁两个市场的发展。

按照常见的“神话”,说意大利男青年留在家里,是因为他们不能离开妈妈做的饭。更有可能的解释是,他们找不到别的地方住。意大利法律让消费者的住房几乎不可能被贷款机构收回。它以一种无意的方式达到了保护消费者的意图:根本就很难获得按揭贷款。品尝完意大利肉酱面后,母子俩就忙着储蓄,筹措儿子买房需要的大笔存款。

社会习惯与经济制度的作用相互加强。德国的银行是保守的借贷方,而德国家庭对债务持怀疑态度。这就产生了这样一种心态,认为那个老笑话说的很对:银行只会借钱给那些不需要钱的人。而银行那么做是对的,因为凡是确实需要钱的人,都已经走出既定文化习俗界限了。

投资机会范围更广、更吸引人,并不一定会导致储蓄增多。如果储蓄与其它大宗商品一样,更好的收益和更广泛的选择就会让储蓄更有吸引力。

但是,储蓄在本质上不是商品;它是一种以未来消费为目的的手段。如果你能指望从自己的股票中得到大约两位数的收益(或者你被人引导这么想),你就可以相应地少存一些钱,来实现特定的目标。储蓄有一种预防性的目的——年纪比较大的一代人把这叫做“未雨绸缪”。不过,当雨天来临时,你拥有的应对选择越多,你也就越不需要预防性储蓄。信用卡和住宅的股本总是可以利用的。

这并不意味着金融市场解除管制是一件坏事。但我曾相信,一个活跃金融体系存在的合理性在于,它能让我们更容易地获得修建学校和工厂、商店和办公室需要的资金。

然而,活跃的金融体系并不会修建更多的学校和工厂、商店和办公室。在这样的体系中,消费占国民收入的比例较高,投资所占比例较低。一个发达金融体系的作用是,它能让我们在Wii刚在商店里出现时就买上一部,还能让我们退休后在加勒比海上巡游。

译者/徐柳
 
Sunday, July 22, 2007
  神仙也有想家时
香港观察 曹景行 2007年07月18日


从太平山顶俯瞰香港
回归后的香港安然无恙

香港回归十年,过去一个月两地媒体的报道排山倒海而来。

看完一大堆文字后发觉,最有意思的收获,是得知倪匡先生已经重回香港定居了。他最近还接受了我的凤凰卫视同事许戈辉专访,数以千万计的中国大陆观众,也就第一次有机会通过《名人面对面》节目,看到活生生的卫斯理作者是何种模样了。

按照香港社会的习惯,倪老先生和笔者一样都被归入"上海人"之类。他当年为了"避共"来到香港,九七前好几年又因"避共"移民去了美国的旧金山。此后的许多日子里,香港读者主要通过他的好友蔡澜在《苹果日报》副刊中的专栏,断断续续知道他在"番邦"的生存状态。

蔡澜经常给倪匡打电话,讲得最多的事情是倪匡最近又发现了什么新的好玩事情,每次也都以一连串的"哈哈哈哈------" 收尾,这种无忧无虑神仙过的日子,实在叫人羡慕不已。没料到,神仙也有想回家乡的时候。对倪老先生来说,他想的老家不是上海,而是那个使他成为倪匡的地方 --香港。

这也说明,过去十多年香港即使不再受英国人治理,大致状况与他离开时没有多大分别,仍然是他最中意的地方吧。不只是倪匡, 许许多多当年为逃避九七而移居他国的香港人,也都陆陆续续又回流香港;官方拿不出确切数字,有人估计是30万,也就相当于八九十年代全部外流香港人的一 半。最新的动向是,九七前随父母移民出去的第二代香港人,甚至一些移民出去后才出生的第二代,现在已经大学毕业有了工作,也开始出现回流。

有趣的是,中国官方媒体在报道香港"移民回流"时也首次承认,当初多数香港人对回归共产党当政的祖国,实际上是心怀惧怕, 而不是欢欣鼓舞。像中央电视台的王牌栏目《新闻调查》,就专门作了一期香港人从国外回流的节目。采访中,主持人长江问到当初为什么要移居他乡时,受访者的 回答都离不开一个"怕"字。

他们移民去的那些国度,生活品质和社会福利一定都比香港好许多,但时间长了,又都感到还是香港好。给我印象深刻的例子是那对移居南非的夫妇,他们的新房子比香港要大上几十倍,只是一次全家被当地人绑架的经历,就破坏了全部的移民梦。

香港的小商贩
大多数香港人的生活并未发生太大改变
如果计算一下香港回归对香港人的得与失,获得最大好处的应该是大老板、大企业主。他们早就是狡兔三窟的世界公民,根本不需 要考虑移民他国求保险,九七还没到,他们就抓住了中国改革开放的机会,大举北上投资,与大陆的"红顶商人"携手共同发财。九七香港回归之平顺和平静,与此 大有关系。 至于下层的香港人,既不怕被"共产",又无财力可以移民他国,也就不去想这种事情了,最多为赶申领BNO(英国海外属地公民)护照的末班车,通宵去排队交 钱罢了。他们既然移不动,也就没有什么得失,不管今天香港谁当家,仍然过着"手停口停"的日子,"縣食"要紧,还是香港最好。

最吃亏的就数那些有点积蓄、有点资产的香港第一代中产阶级了。他们不希望香港回归,担心共产党会毁了他们已有的地位和利 益,担心下一代会过上大陆以前的那种日子。特别是1989年后,香港社会对回归的恐惧达到新的顶点。于是,当他们看到自己的同事、朋友纷纷移居他国时,也 就下了决心放弃辛辛苦苦得来的事业、职位和住宅,加入了移民大潮。一家移民公司的经理告诉中央电视台的主持人长江,92、93移民高峰期他们公司一年就办 了四五千人出国,而这样的移民公司在香港何止一家!

移民之后,有的香港人融入了当地社会,找到了新的发展空间和机会。但也有的,也许是更多的,则无法延续过去的人生路径。他们中不少人坐满了三年"移民监",又看看香港,觉得北京真的会在香港搞"一国两制",于是等不到九七就又返回香港。

只是,他们已无法用原先的价钱买回过去那样的住宅,多数也不可能重获过去那样的工作职务。有人找到新的工作,立即被公司派 去大陆赴任,心中一定苦笑:"当初为了躲避九七而去了外国,现在反而提前回归中国了。"他们为取得"政治保险"而付出的代价,也许是下半辈子再也无法追补 回来的。

有位当年负责香港回归事务的北京退休官员承认,九七前北京主要精力放在了稳定香港上层人心方面,忽略了做中产阶级的工作。 不知道今天接替他的官员,是否已经懂得了这个道理。香港回归十年中发生的许多波折,实际上都与中产阶级的心态相关。什么时候香港中产阶级的人心都"回归" 了,香港也就真正回归了,邓小平说的"五十年不变",也许就包含了这一层意思吧。

Labels:

 
  中国经济发展的正常与非正常阶段
汪丁丁/文 《财经》网络版 [2007-07-20]

 建立由劳动者自行维护其权益的劳动工资政策、由消费者自行维护其权益的教育和公共卫生政策以及对相应的政府部门实行彻底的职能转换与改组

【网络稿专栏】当前,中国的经济与社会发展正处于人口学家所谓“人口红利耗竭”的阶段,这一阶段的特征由附图最上方的第二条垂直线即“对劳动力的需求”显示出来。因为,对应于这一垂直(短期)需求的,是向上弯曲并迅速攀升的劳动力供给曲线,并且如附图所示,第三条需求曲线不再是垂直的而是由开放程度与国际市场决定的向下倾斜的需求。

在正常的经济与社会发展阶段,这样迅速的供求关系变化及其变化方向的转变,被称为“发展的转折期”。中国的问题在于:首先,尚未确立与发展转折点相适应的制度;其次,尚未达成经济学的理论共识,以适应和指导这一转折期的政治经济政策。

首先应达成理论的共识。这一共识或许可以下列基本事实为前提:

(1)在2003年以前,中国经济与社会的发展大致表现出教科书经济学所谓“正常发展”的第一阶段和第二阶段的特征。如附图最下方的“正常发展阶段”维度所示,第一阶段的经济发展策略通常被称为“进口替代型”(拉丁美洲模式)以及“出口导向型”(东亚模式);第二阶段的经济特征则可由“钱纳利-仙昆”统计分析与大国模型中的“产业结构升级”表达,内含于这一阶段的,是伴随着“外国直接投资”规模扩张的技术进口和国内技术吸收能力的提高。注意,附图同一维度内,正常的第三发展阶段以“人口老龄化和知识社会”为特征,伴随着(人口老化时期的)总量消费水平的攀升及真实物价的攀升;

(2)与正常发展阶段相适应或作为其核心驱动因素的,是人力资本的积累过程。如附图“时间维度”所示,第一阶段的特征是公共财政支持下的义务教育制度的确立和基础教育的普及;第二阶段的特征是人力资本密集型产业迅速成为经济的主导产业,在这一转折期内,由德鲁克和加尔布雷斯定义为“知识劳动者”或国内经济学家所谓的“高级蓝领”的收入水平,迅速攀升。注意,同一维度内,正常的第三发展阶段以福克斯定义的“现代服务业”为主导产业群;

(3)旨在为中国经济提供“人力资本”的两大部门——教育与医疗(或更广义的“公共卫生”),由于未能及时实施“体制转换”,因而无法提供或保养正常发展第二阶段和第三阶段所需的大批“知识劳动者”。与此同时,中国经济的国际贸易依存度仍在迅速攀升。

我认为,上述第(3)事实所列两方面的因素,诱发中国经济进入或即将进入一个可被称为“知识进口”的非正常发展阶段,否则我们将难以维持这一经济的“快速增长”。又由于政治和社会体制的因素,经济的增长速度不应突然下降。于是,我们将不得不实行基于商品贸易顺差的“知识进口”策略。具体而言,就是进口国外知识密集型的劳务——高级管理服务、高级研发服务、高级医疗服务、高级教育服务、高级社会与其它咨询服务等等。根据我的观察,大约2003年以来,“知识进口”已经发生了。

另一方面,基于足够多经济学家的共识,尽管中国人口学家早就警告过,中国人口的老龄化高峰必定发生于2010年至2025年期间,但主要由于意识形态的、经济学家群体的、政府职能的、政治体制的以及社会历史的诸多因素,绝大多数普通劳动者至今难以遵循正常的劳动力供给曲线获取劳动报酬,他们的劳动报酬仍被 “制度性地”维持在“兰尼斯-费景汉”模型所刻画的“制度工资”水平,即附图最上方维度内的绿色水平直线。

与此同时,具有极高国际贸易依存度的中国经济已经进入上述正常发展第二阶段,并产生了对人力资本含量高的劳动力(高级蓝领)的巨大需求,从而教育和医疗的真实价格迅速攀升。这两方面因素使得普通劳动者的家庭迅速丧失了支付其子女教育和医疗费用的能力,从而丧失了进入正常的经济社会发展第三阶段的资格。

普通劳动者的上述状况,直接造成了国内市场若干年以来的所谓“消费不振”,及由李实等人定义的“选择性贫困”家庭随着人口老龄化和社会保障的缺失在城市地区的蔓延。另一方面,包含了外资企业代表、民营企业家、高级管理者、政府官员、腐败份子及其家属等等成份的“高收入阶层”,在过去十年内培育了对进口商品和奢侈品的引人注目的需求。

以上两方面因素,使得中国经济的总体需求表现出显著的“断裂”,我称之为 “制度性断裂”,由附图最下方的维度的两条绿色水平线表示——对应于“人口老龄化与知识社会”的消费水平的绿色直线仅代表高收入阶层的消费,另一绿色直线则代表低收入阶层的消费水平。事实上,不可能存在这样的整体消费,这两条绿色直线表达的,是两类相互隔绝的消费品市场及其价格水平,其一由进口物品组成,另一则由国内物品或“出口转内销”物品组成。

如果我们可能对上述各项看法达成经济学理论的共识,那么,相应地,我们就应提出可由劳动者自行维护其权益的劳动工资政策——包括真正的劳工组织对经济政策和社会政策的积极和切实有效的参与,我们还应提出可由消费者自行维护其权益的教育和公共卫生政策——包括取消所谓“公立”教育和“公立”医院对市场的垄断和特权,以及对相应的政府部门实行彻底的职能转换与改组,应将其改组为可最大限度地被置于公众监督之下的对应于这两类服务的“社会政策委员会”。

■ 作者为《财经》杂志学术顾问
 
Thursday, July 19, 2007
  The end of rent-a-gown

By Kitty Go
Published: June 22 2007, FT

Imagine telling the wives of the four England footballers who got married last week about the traditional Chinese practice of renting bridal gowns – and imagine the horror. Renting a venue is one thing, but how can a woman rent a gown for one of the most important days of her life?

Simple. Greater China is mostly non-Christian, and what westerners think of as the wedding gown is only worn for picture taking. According to local celebrity designer Dorian Ho, a traditional Chinese wedding would involve one gown that could be a bridal gown for the ceremony, another for the reception, another for tossing the bouquet, yet another for dancing, and finally one for seeing guests off. In addition, says Carolyn Chow, partner and general manager of Central Weddings and Occasions in Hong Kong: “The average Hong Kongese lives in a small flat and if she buys a wedding dress, there is no room for storage. It is also more important to wear a cheongsam or qi pao. The wedding dress is not important so they don’t see any reason for spending much on it.”

Or rather, they didn’t. Recently, women in Hong Kong and Singapore have started to buy high-quality designer gowns. “A large part of the HK population is open to western culture and familiar with international brands,” says Chow. “We are seeing a trend towards slimmer and fewer gowns,” agrees Ho.

When Chow started looking for a gown to wear to her own wedding, she couldn’t find anything in Hong Kong that was on a par with what she saw as a student in America. Four years ago, she opened Chimes, her first bridal business endeavour.

“I was lucky to be able to start relationships with Carolina Herrera and Badgley Mischka, who were very interested in expanding into Asia,” says Chow. Now her shop also holds exclusive Asian rights to Oscar de la Renta, Monique L’Huillier, Kumari and Reem Acra. Meanwhile, Vera Wang in Asia is exclusive to The Link Wedding in Singapore.

Whole bridal packages are “not much cheaper than having something made for you that is beautiful and well done,” says Chow, whose gowns start at HKD 50,000 (£3,330), including local fittings. Ho, whose gowns start at HKD 20,000 (£1,300), adds: “More fashion-conscious brides like to manifest their individuality.”

Meanwhile, a smaller segment of mainland Chinese women have been flying to Hong Kong and Singapore for western-style wedding gowns. The Link Wedding estimates their mainland business at “10 per cent and growing steadily”. Chow also attributes about 10 per cent of Central Weddings’ market to the mainland. Having done very little publicity for gowns that cost over a year’s pay for some, most customers come through referrals. “They may not be western educated but I suspect they follow fashion trends and buy luxury goods,” says Chow. “They make decisions quickly and pay right away.”

www.centralweddings.com

www.dorianho.net

www.thelink.com.sg

Gifts change too

It’s not just Chinese wedding dresses that are changing; the classic bridal jewellery and gifts are also evolving. At the usual pre-wedding tea ceremony, the mother-in-law used to present the bride with 24-carat gold bracelets. These days, it may be bangles embossed with Mickey and Minnie Mouse, or Hello Kitty and her husband, Daniel.

“The traditions are still practised, but we have to modernise our designs,” explains Emily Li, brand general manager of Chow Sang Sang in Hong Kong. The 73-year old jewellery chain has the licence to produce 24-carat gold Disney and Sanrio characters, and all manufacturing is done in China.

www.chowsangsang.com

 
  中国人不再租婚纱了?
作者:英国《金融时报》撰稿人 凯蒂•戈(Kitty Go)
2007年7月19日 星期四

试想,当你告诉上周结婚的四位英格兰足球队员的太太们,中国人的传统方式是租婚纱,想想这有多可怕。租场地是一回事,但在一生最重要日子里,女人怎么可能去穿租来的婚纱呢?

理由很简单,在大中华地区,多数人不是基督徒,西方人心目中的婚纱对他们来说仅仅是用来拍照的。据当地名设计师何国钲(Dorian Ho)称,传统中式婚礼包含一套婚纱、一套接待服、一套新娘丢掷花束时穿的礼服、一套舞会服以及最后的送客服。另外,香港Central Weddings and Occasions合伙人及总经理Carolyn Chow表示:“普通香港人住的是小单元,如果她买了婚纱,就没地方放了。穿旗袍显得更重要。婚纱倒不是那么重要,所以在她们看来,没有理由为此花销太大。”

或者,更确切地说是她们过去认为不值得。最近,香港和新加坡的女性已开始购买高级设计师的礼服了。“很大一部分香港人接受西方文化并熟悉国际品牌,”Chow说。“我们越来越发现,礼服有更修身、更稀有的趋势,”何国钲附和说。

Chow开始为自己的婚礼寻找婚纱时,找遍香港,却没有一件能与她在美国读书时看到的婚纱媲美。4年前,她的第一间婚庆公司Chimes开张了。

“一开始就能与Carolina Herrera和Badgley Mischka合作,我很幸运,他们对在亚洲扩大业务很感兴趣,”Chow说。目前,她的门店持有Oscar de la Renta、Monique L'Huillier、Kumari和Reem Acra在亚洲的独家代理权。同时,新加坡的The Link Wedding独家代理了Vera Wang在亚洲的业务。

整个婚庆套餐“跟所有漂亮精致、为你量身定做的东西一样,便宜不到哪里去,”Chow说。包括现场试穿,她的婚纱起价5万港元(合3330英镑)。何国钲补充说:“更具时尚意识的新娘喜欢彰显她们的个性。”他的婚纱起价2万港元(合1300英镑)。

同时,中国内地的一小部分女性一直在飞临香港或新加坡,选购西方风格的婚纱。The Link Wedding估计,他们的内地业务占“10%并在稳定增长”。Chow也认为,“Central Weddings有10%的业务来自内地。这些婚纱价格超过某些人的年薪,他们也很少做推广,多数顾客是经人介绍而来。“他们不一定受过西方教育,但我认为,她们紧跟时尚潮流,而且常常购买奢侈品,”Chow说。“她们很快就做出决定,并且当场付钱。”

中国婚庆礼物也在演变

不仅中国人的婚纱在变,经典的新娘首饰和礼物也在变化。在婚礼前常见的敬茶仪式上,婆婆送给新娘的是24k金手镯,如今可能变成了饰有米奇(Mickey)与米妮(Minnie Mouse)或凯蒂猫(Hello Kitty)与丈夫丹尼尔(Daniel)图案的挂件。

“传统还在继续,但我们必须使我们的设计更具现代感,”李彦明(Emily Li)解释说。李彦明是香港周生生的品牌总经理。这个有着73年历史的老字号珠宝连锁店拥有生产24k金迪斯尼及三丽鸥(Sanrio)人物形象的许可证,制造全是在中国完成的。

www.centralweddings.com

www.dorianho.net

www.thelink.com.sg

www.chowsangsang.com

译者/红岭

 
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
  Presents a comparison of online brokers
INVESTMENTHOUSE.COMTM

As a stock market newsletter site, we are constantly asked questions about the various online
stock brokerage websites. Therefore, we have prepared this report to provide you with insights
on the most popular online trading sites. This report discusses online trading in general, and specifically discusses the attributes of the following online trading websites:

  • E*Trade
  • Fidelity
  • Schwab
  • TD Ameritrade
  • Scottrade

    Note: InvestmentHouse.com is not in the brokerage business and does not compete with the above-listed companies, rather we provide
    this detail and comparison for our site visitors and newsletter members so that they may make an informed decision when picking an online broker.

    E*Trade Financial -- Click here to open an E*Trade Account

    E*Trade Financial was incorporated in 1982 and is based in New York City. E*Trade
    provides financial solutions to retail and institutional customers globally. It
    offers retail investing and trading products and services, including automated
    order placement and execution of market and limit equity, futures, options,
    exchange-traded funds, and bond orders; real-time streaming quotes, commentary,
    and news; advanced trading platforms for traders; personalized portfolio
    tracking; and access to approximately 7,000 non-proprietary and proprietary
    mutual funds. In addition, it provides advisory and asset management services
    to retail clients; and token-based security solution. E*Trade serves retail,
    institutional, and corporate customers through the Internet and other
    electronic media.

    E*trade offers a range of offerings which includes banking
    services and mutual funds in addition to its main service of stock trading. The
    commissions range from $6.99 to $12.99 for a market order based on the asset
    amount or number of trades in a quarter. Like many other services, E*Trade has
    branch offices where customers can go for in-person advice. This has been
    recently added and is only available in selected cities.

    E*Trade has now dropped a $3 handling fee for the first 26
    trades during each quarter. There is, however, a $40 maintenance fee per
    quarter, raising it from $25. Those with additional E*Trade accounts or at
    least $10,000 in assets may also avoid fees. E*Trade also provides many free
    and usually unpublicized services like asset allocation advice and financial
    planning. Research tools included screen charting and daily stock
    recommendations based on technical and fundamental analysis. There is no longer
    a minimum opening balance requirement, making E*Trade friendly to lower-asset
    or novice investors.


    Comparison of Online Brokers

    The online brokerage services market has expanded
    significantly in the last 10 years and continues to evolve rapidly. At its peak
    in early 2000, online retail traders accounted for nearly one-third of the
    trading volume on the NYSE and NASDAQ, a figure which float around 10% for last
    couple of years. The brokerage firms have come to realize that retail trading
    levels and commissions may never return to the heights seen in late 1990s and
    early 2000. The online brokerage industry has been in the news lately, as the
    industry moves towards consolidation; driven primarily by two factors - excess
    capacity and the very low level of variable costs associated with processing a
    trade.


    According to a
    research by Tower Group, the online brokerage market has shrunk from 154
    players in 2000 to about 50 today. However,
    the major share of business
    is in the control of the five largest companies[1] -
    Fidelity, Schwab, TD Ameritrade, E*Trade and Scottrade. These leading firms
    have a stranglehold on the online brokerage business, across industry accounts,
    trades, assets, revenues and net income. These five dominate the marketplace at
    a point in time when trading activity, after a post-Internet-bubble lull, has
    surpassed pre-bubble activity. There are currently about 1.27 million online
    trades placed per day, compared with 1.20 million in 2000.


    Fig. 1: Online
    Brokerage Market (2000-2006)



    Source: Tower Group, Tiburon Strategic Advisors


    Market Competition

    Top five players currently accounts for about 80% of market
    share with Fidelity and Schwab, whose businesses extend beyond traditional
    retail accounts, dramatically ahead of the other three firms in several
    categories. In terms of total business, Fidelity is the clear leader with 12.2
    million total online accounts because of its mutual fund, 401(k) and clearing
    units. Schwab is second at 7.2 million accounts, TD Ameritrade is third with
    6.0 million, E*Trade fourth at 4.3 million and Scottrade fifth with 1.4 million
    accounts. Together, the big five control 91% of all the accounts in the online
    brokerage marketplace.




    Source: Tiburon Strategic Advisors


    Their dominance is also reflected in revenues, where
    Fidelity alone generates 51% of the industry total. Schwab accounts for 25% of
    the industry’s revenues, E*Trade is 12%, TD Ameritrade is 9% and Scottrade is
    at 1%. The rest of the firms account for only 2% of the industry’s revenues.

    Fig. 3: Market

    Share of Industry Revenues




    Source: Tiburon Strategic Advisors


    TD Ameritrade's market share for commissionable trades
    plummeted from 33.8% of the discounter total in 2004, to just 23.7% in 2006.
    E*Trade, on a pro forma basis (including newly acquired HarrisDirect and
    BrownCo) has given up 1.9 percentage points of share to reach 15.8% from 17.7% in
    2004. Schwab's market share of retail trades jumped to 24.6% from 19.1% in
    2004, while Fidelity's share climbed 2.1 percentage points to 12.7%, from 10.6%
    in 2004[2].

    Fig. 4: Market

    Share for Commissionable Trades




    Source: Tiburon Strategic Advisors



    Major Players and their Offerings

    Charles Schwab Corporation

    The Charles Schwab Corporation was incorporated in 1986 and
    engages, through its subsidiaries, in securities brokerage, banking, and
    related financial services. The company's principal activities are to provide
    security brokerage, banking and related financial services. Its activities are
    carried out through four segments: Individual Investor- offering retail
    brokerage and banking operations, Institutional Investor - offering custodial,
    trading and support services to independent investment advisors, serves company
    401(k) plan sponsors and third-party administrators and supports company stock
    option plan. Capital Markets offers trade execution services in Nasdaq,
    exchange-listed and other securities primarily to broker-dealers, including
    Schwab, and institutional clients. US Trust offers investment and wealth
    management, custody, fiduciary services, and private banking services to
    individual and institutional clients.

    Charles Schwab used to be a broker with a complicated fee
    structure of minimum account balances and handling fees. But in late 2005, the
    broker eliminated its service fees (except for IRAs) to better complete with other
    brokerage firms. Schwab has a tiered rate schedule and a $2,500 minimum deposit
    to start an account. Those with account balances under $50,000 pay $19.95 per
    trade. Those with balances between $50,000 and $1,000,000 pay $12.95 per trade.

    Further, Schwab has an easy-to-use website with lots of
    accessible information. Also Schwab has now branched out into personal banking,
    offering credit cards and online bill paying. Charles Schwab's design and easy website
    navigation is simple and easy to understand and provides research from
    Morningstar and Goldman Sachs among others. There is also a Market Insight
    section that has articles and webcasts on investing strategies and market
    commentary.


    Fidelity Brokerage Company

    Although widely known for mutual fund management, Fidelity
    has been a significant provider of brokerage services for over a decade. In
    March 2001, Fidelity Brokerage Company was established to integrate Fidelity's
    Personal Investments (Retail) and Institutional Brokerage businesses. Fidelity
    Brokerage Company, a part of Fidelity Investments, provides a broad range of
    retail and institutional brokerage services. Today, Fidelity Brokerage Company
    is one of the leading brokerage firms in US with more than $1.5 trillion in
    assets under administration and managing over 16 million client accounts.

    Fidelity has designed a three-tier-trading scheme for its
    customers: Gold, Silver and Bronze. Gold investors, who are privy to an $8
    commission rate, must have over $1 million in assets or make 120 trades a year.
    Silver-level investors have assets over $50,000 and pay $10.95 per market
    trade. The Bronze clients have under $50,000 in assets and pay a $19.95 per
    trade.

    In 2005, Fidelity has lowered its fees to better compete in
    the market. For a market order, Fidelity's highest price is $19.95 for the
    first 1000 shares and $.015 for additional shares. Fees drop for those with a
    high account balance or for traders with a high level of activity. Inactivity,
    handling and maintenance fees have now been eliminated, and while a $2,500
    minimum is required to open an account, customers are not penalized for
    dropping below that minimum. Fidelity website has a lot to offer, including
    financial planning tools, research reports and videos from Lehman Bros. The
    biggest bonus may be Fidelity's 110 branch offices throughout US where
    customers can go for in-person service.

    Table 1:
    Summary of Key Online Brokerage Firms






































































    Fidelity



    Charles Schwab




    E*Trade



    Scottrade



    TD Ameritrade




    Minimum Account Balance



    $2,500




    $2,500



    $1,000




    $500



    $1,000




    Online Trades & Limit
    Orders



    $19.95



    $12.95 + $0.015/share over
    1,000 shares




    $12.99



    $7


    unlimited shares




    $9.99


    unlimited shares




    Broker-Assisted Orders



    $55.00


    + $0.14 per share


    over 100 shares



    $37.95


    + $0.015/share


    over 1,000 shares



    $45.00



    + online commission



    $27


    unlimited shares




    $44.99



    Maintenance Fee




    None



    None



    $40 (quarterly)



    $160 (annually)



    None



    None




    Margin Interest Rate On
    $7,500 Debit Balance



    11.08%




    10.75%



    10.24%




    10.50%



    11.00%




    Real-Time Dow Jones News
    for Investors



    Not Available



    Complimentary




    for active traders



    $95.00/Month



    Complimentary




    $29.99/Month



    Branch Offices in US




    110



    300




    20



    276



    103




    Source: Company Websites



    Scottrade

    Established in 1980, Scottrade is among the leading
    companies in online investing, serving individual investors. Headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri,
    the firm is unique in the industry because it boasts very low commission rates
    while offering easily accessible, local branch office support of online trading
    in 273 locations throughout US. Scottrade.com is the online trading site of
    Scottrade and offers customers the convenience of placing market orders online at
    a very low price. In addition to its online capabilities, Scottrade staffs each
    branch location with a licensed branch manager plus additional brokers and
    assistants.

    Scottrade biggest foray is its low broker's commissions which
    are much lower than other firms along with a minimum opening balance is just
    $500. Trade executions are fast and there are free real-time quotes. The only
    drawback is that the company offers little in the way of research. But there
    are nearly 300 offices around the US, something most online brokers
    do not have. Furthermore, there are no account-inactivity fees and no
    maintenance fees at all. Buying no-load mutual funds incurs a $17 commission
    but no-load funds are free. Like many brokers, Scottrade also offers a big
    selection of No Transaction Fee (NTF) funds, for which investors do not have to
    pay anything to buy, sell or exchange.


    TD Ameritrade

    Founded in 1971, TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation provides
    online investment products and services. It was formerly known as Ameritrade
    Holding Corporation and changed its name to TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation
    in January 2006. The company's principal activity is to provide securities
    brokerage services. The company also provides trading execution and clearing
    services for the broker-dealer operations and for unaffiliated broker-dealers.
    The operations are conducted through the Private Client Segment that provides
    brokerage services, clearing services and brokerage capabilities to individual
    investors. The company also provides advisor tools as co-branded or
    private-label products to business partners and customers. The customers
    include retail investors, traders, financial planners and institutions. The
    company operates in the US and
    Canada and is headquartered
    in Omaha, Nebraska.

    TD Ameritrade has been around a long time, and is one of the
    largest online brokers. A $2,000 deposit is the minimum needed to set up an
    Ameritrade account. Dropping below that amount or conducting less than four
    trades in six months incurs a $15 fee per quarter (waived for IRA and
    beneficiary accounts). A market order is $9.99 and that's regardless of the
    number of shares purchased. Ameritrade touts this as a perk over other brokerage
    firms whose customers can rack up higher fees for purchasing a large number of
    shares.


    Independent Unbiased Review

    Fig. 5: Online
    Trading Investor Satisfaction Study (2005)




    Source: J.D. Power and Associates



  • [1] Report by Tiburon Strategic Advisors

    [2] Banc of America Securities

    Labels:

     
      华尔街给我们的参照-------当今的几个热点实例
    泰康人寿保险公司高级投资经理 徐徐 2000年10月12日于USC

      美国和中国的经济状况截然不同,一个是最发达的国家,一个是发展中国家。一个在WTO中执掌牛耳,一个徘徊在门前尚待进入。美国的经济因为持续成长和 繁荣要防止过热;而中国要解决经济持续增长后面临的趋冷和通货紧缩。美国那斯达克指数近几个月来的持续滑落,带动着道穷斯指数一起跳崖,牵累国际股市到处 告急。股市新宠包括高科技和网络股也为之敲响警报。中国沪深股市也在不痛不痒地时而阴跌,时而扬升。由于我国的资本项目还没有开放,国际经济学界普遍认 为,中国的A股市场基本跟国际股市没有关系。但是,这次那斯达克指数的下跌,对中国有着特殊的意义。因为我们的网络经济热潮正方兴未艾。我国的经济是处在 新经济阶段,还是已陷入泡沫经济的争议?影响着对经济发展的认识和大方向的把握。正因为如此,证券交易在中国经济发展中所起的作用,已远远超出了资源配 置,资本市场的发展深深地浸透人们的生活。本文谨对当前美国证券交易中的几个热点实例做一简要分析,以求给我国的证券市场发展以一个参照。

      实例一、上网买卖证券 由于网际网路的迅速发展,上网投资与网络炒股已风行美国大地。越来越多的投资者放弃了传统的投资方式而改用了网路,因而网上证券交易量正在急剧的上升。
    大多数人们认为网上交易的好处有:
      (1) 方便灵活
      投资者可以随时上网下单,不必等候股票经济接电话再实施各种操作。网上交易的速度快,买卖的价格控制比较起传统的股票经纪清晰而简捷。
      (2) 佣金低廉
      目前,美国的网上券商如雨后春笋一般崛起。竞争之激烈,使得买卖股票的佣金越来越低廉。传统经纪收取百元以上一笔交易,在网上交易只需付5-30元。
      (3) 信息丰富
      信息的及时获取是成功投资的重要条件。有了丰富资讯才能得心应手做出投资的决定,而较少错失良机。
    网上交易存在的问题是:
      由于某些网上证券公司未能及时下单,导致投资者以较高价格买进或以较低价卖出证券,而其中的损失恐怕比从佣金省下来的钱还多。联邦审计处(General Accounting Office)今年五月公布的研究显示,证券交易委员会发现,29家网上证券中有17家存在着未能及时执行投资者买卖交易下单的问题。其中不乏一些知名网上证券交易商。
      网上可获得的丰富信息表现为:上网查帐、免费报股价、财经新闻、专家们对某公司与行业的分析等等。以上的这些好处使得投资股票广受美国人的热爱。目前 美国已有一半国民拥有股票,而各类退休养老计划也都与华儿街的命运息息相关。因此股市的持续繁荣、网上交易的日益热烈,实乃大势所趋。美国经济之强,举世 瞩目,投资股市回报之丰令人羡慕。而政治上的安定,经济体制的健全及证管会对保护投资者利益不遗余力等因素,使得国外人士对投资美国股票十分青睐。随着 WTO的推进,世界上任何一个角落购买另一个地点股票成为现实。高科技的发展让网络打破了国界的藩篱。
      现今,可以上网买卖证券的选择有:
      美国国家债券与美国公司债券(Government Bonds and Corporate Bonds)都可在网上交易。
      共同基金(Mutual Fund)--美国有上千的共同基金,其中大多数都可在网上买卖。
      股票选择权(Options)--所有上市的股票选择都可经由网上交易,但在开户时须先指定投资者有买卖股票选择权的权利。
      在美国境外上网投资可以选择美国各大财务公司的网站进行。例如:美林(Merrill Lynch)、潘韦佰(Paine Webber)、嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)、第一证券(Firstrade Inc)。通过这些网站投资者可以浏览有关股市、经济与个股的行情,查询股票帐户的即时资金结余,查询最新市价与交易状况,向网上经纪下单买卖。第一证券(Firstrade Inc)还能提供中文网站的服务(中文网址:www.Firstrade.com\chinese)
    一般的开户手续是:
    ˙向各网上经纪索取开户申请表并填写开户申请表。
    ˙填写美国税表W-8(Certificate of Foreign Status)与1001表(Ownership, Exemption or Reduced Rate Certificate)。
    ˙护照的复印件(有照片的那一页)。
    ˙把以上资料寄往投资者选定的网上经纪,网上经纪审查收到的资料完备即会给投资者一个帐户号码,有关的投资资料。投资者即可上网买卖股票。
      自许为网上消费者做"看门狗"的网上公司Gomez.com.针对网上证券��"整体分数最佳"方面,嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)名列第一,第二至第九名依次为E* Trade''富达投资(Fidelity Investments)'DL Jdirect、美林证券(Merrill Lynch and Co Inc)、TD Waterhouse、National Discount Brokerage.
      在"最易使用"方面,前五名为嘉信理财、E*Trade、摩根史坦利丁威德(Morgan Stanley Dean Witter OnLINE)、美林证券、Firstrade.
      在"客户信心"方面,前五名A、B、Watley、富达投资、Citicorp Investment、Bull and Bear Securiities。此类别以证券公司是否拥有庞大的资金、能否追朔网址内容、是否拥有一群训练有素的服务人员、能否提供客户有关交易规则及执行下单等重要信息来评价。
      在"网制址是否拥有充分资讯"方面前五名公司为E* Trade、嘉信理财、富达投资、DL Jdirect、TD Waterhouse、AB.watley、 Siebert 、American Express Brokerage.
      在"客户服务"方面,Gomez根据证券公司能否提供客户所需的帐号资讯、能否提供投资者有深度的警示、能否提供一些建议及是否拥有教育内容等来评分。 前五名为:嘉信理财、美林证券、富达投资、E* Trade、American Express Brokerage.
      至于证券公司能否提供低花费的服务、能否提供有吸引力的融资条件及利息的"整体花费"方面,名列前五名的公司是Firstrade、Trading Direct、Web Street、American First Trader、Scottrade.
      对于积极交易的网上投资者,低佣金、易操作、提供丰富的信息,每项下单不需要重新打进通行号码。这类证券公司获Gomez评为前五名的是E* Trade、Webtreet、A.B.Wateleg、First trade 、American First Trader.
      对于经常交易、但行事严谨,在投资前喜欢先查阅资料再决定买卖者,获Gomez评为前五名的证券公司E* Trade、嘉信理财、富达投资、DL Jdirect、TD Waterhouse.
      投资者若希望长期投资共同基金,同时希望看到网址提供财务计划等资讯。此时,一个稳健的财务服务公司会比擅长科技分析的公司重要。获Gomez推荐的前五名公司为嘉信理财、E* Trade、富达投资、美林证券、DL Jdirect.
      投资者若想一站搞定,网上证券商必须提供包括股票买卖、保险、共同基金、信用卡、帐单给付等全方位财经产品服务。公司的服务是否广泛且容易使用,成为 投资者选择的重要标准。获Gomez评估为前五名的公司有富达投资、美林证券、嘉信理财、TD Waterhouse、Wingspan Investment Service.
      综上可见,美国的网上证券交易已经形成了一整套较为完善的服务系统,极大地方便了投资者的投资行为。与传统的证券交易市场方式相比,网上交易的优越性已经开始渗透到整个金融服务业。 实例二、 新兴经济与高科技投资组合
      正确的理解高科技不是一个简单的事情。高科技在多数人认为是以一日千里行进的行业。因此,很多新投资者可能在过去的两三年内只是对一些高科技公司有所了解,很快另一些新兴的高科技公司又展现在人们面前,令人目不暇接,也无从下手投资。
      大家从现实生活中知道在过去十年中,个人电脑的发展改变了人的工作和生活。高科技公司象微软、英特尔、戴尔电脑和康佰克电脑,领导了电脑业的发展。而以前的高科技领导公司如IBM、施乐(XEROX)在这期间却表现平平。
      如果在九十年代投资微软、英特尔、戴尔的投资者,能获取百分之一千以上的回报率,在1999年开始同样投资上述三家公司者,回报率却低得可怜。据 ZACKS投资数据库数据显示,在那斯达克(NASDAQ)中有一百多家中型公司(市场资本额在五亿美元以上)在过去的五十二周内成长超出250%。进一 步研究可以发现,这些公司没有一家和电脑硬体或软体有关。我们不问以往投资高科技股票的"名牌"股是否被淘汰,还是有新的"名牌"在涌现,有一个现象是明 确的,高科技各个行业中的领先公司渐渐地从和个人电脑相关转向与网络和通讯相关,在加上生物医学基因工程。如果说网络带来新兴经济的话,那么这些与网络和 通讯相关的公司可谓新兴经济高科技公司(当然这些公司里究竟有多少高新技术含量需要进一步界定)。新兴经济高科技公司随着网络的迅速发展而以惊人的速度发 展,个人电脑业会继续以健康的速度发展,但其成长的速度与过去十年相比可能较慢。惊人的速度在经济学而言,并非是一件好事。投资者已从近期美国股市的下跌 中,尝试了所��"新兴经济与高科技公司"的苦头。冷静地分析一下过去美国投资者认知的高科技公司组合,会给我们中国投资者带来启迪。
      我们以高科技的主要行业来举例比较高科技公司。
      (一) 半导体
      半导体行业在过去一年中经历了前所未有的大宗物资化(COMDILIZING),如电脑中的DRAM和HARD DISK等产品,与大豆原油等大宗物资一样以斤、以桶买卖。只不过交易的单位不同如DRAM以2KB为单位买卖。这类半导体产品无名牌和高科技可言,价格 主要受市场供求关系而定。电脑的CPU是没有大宗化的一个领域。领先的公司有INTEL, 其奔腾(PENTLUM)晶片平均毛利在60%左右。目前已随着电脑的价格越来越低,其盈利能力减弱,成长速度会减缓。与其相反,半导体在通讯和网络的晶 片发展速度却很快。这个领域的公司在加州的有BROADCOM、VITESSE、加拿大的PMC SIERRA。这些公司已经超出INTEL, 今后5年的预期成长率为年40%以上。BROADCOM和PMC等少数几家公司得到思科(CISCO)的允许,可以配合共同开发新产品。由于这些公司的前 景看好,因此股价已开始反应。上述三家新兴经济半导体公司的股价都在三位数,本益比 是传统半导体的几倍或几十倍。
      (二) 网络设备
      思科几乎和网络设备的年龄一样有16年的历史,在高科技公司中属于元老级的。在过去的十几年中,思科从一个名不见经传的硅谷小公司,成为美国第三大公 司。市场总值超出IBM和INTEL。上季度盈利报告仍显示其成长速度没有减慢,在50%左右。其中高速发展的光纤网络预期今后数年内会有成倍的成长。思 科公司虽"老"但发展仍象一个新兴公司,其本益比仍在85倍的高点。华尔街分析师认为:思科的规模总有一天会影响其发展速度,届时其股价会大降。这种言论 已经有好几年了,何时会发生,投资者只能拭目以待。
      网络设备公司5年前有很多,如BAY NETWORK、USROBORTIC、CABLETRON、CASCADED等十几家现在都已不复存在。新兴的网络设备公司,1999年也有数家上市,其中JUNIPER NETWORK在高速ROUTER技术上可和思科相比,具有一定的市场占有率,有小思科之称。不过,投资新兴高科技公司有较高风险。文中所提及的公司股票,美国投资者近一轮的股市下跌中有很多惨痛投资教训。
      (三) 生物医学及基因工程
      在生物医学及基因工程领域,美国仍处于领先的地位。很多公司都有其核心的产品。以产品为先导的生物技术公司他们各自的核心产品如下:
    Affymax(组合化学)
    Systematics(茎节细胞)
    Geron(蛋白和癌症相关产品)
    Chiron(多种产品)
    Merck(多种产品)
      目前,有一个比较流行的观点认为生物学走上科学的中央舞台是以牺牲物理学为前提的,这是不正确的。我们将进入一个新的世纪,回首20世纪前半期物理学 在科学中占了主导地位,出现了包括交通、通讯和大规模生产技术领域的革命,计算机时代开始了。同时也出现了核武器和环境问题。后半期生物科学的发展是建立 在物理学和化学的基础上。疫苗和抗生素的发展、绿色革命等。只有物理学发展了,才能为揭开生命结构秘密的研究提供有效的工具。因此涉及电子显微镜,化学分 析仪,智能计算机……。与这些领域有关的工厂,美国人都认为具有生物科技的发展色彩,具有潜在的投资价值。
      生物医学及基因工程的主攻方向是发现人类(生物类)的生长基因,揭示其功能。了解多种疾病的概率,找出基因治疗方法,开发有关的新药。在20世纪80 年代,科学家们花了9年的时间来确定引起"织维变性囊肿"病的基因。1997年,科学家们只用了9天就找到了可能造成"帕尔金森氏"病的基因位置。"基因切片"技术将为终身防止基因病提供一条新的道路。
      在生物科学及基因工程中较著名的公司有:
    默克(Merck and Co) 美国 销售额 238亿美元, 资产1837亿美元
    辉瑞(Ptizer) 美国 销售额 128亿美元, 资产1504亿美元
    施贵宝(Bristol-Myers Squibb)美国 销售额 184 亿美元,资产1504亿美元
    强生强生(Johnson& Johnson)美国 销售额 238 亿美元, 资产1309亿美元
    诺华(Novartis) 瑞士 销售额 217 亿美元, 资产1063亿美元
    葛蓝素(GlaxoWellcome) 英国 销售额 130 亿美元, 资产1043亿美元
    罗氏(Roche Holding) 瑞士 销售额 122 亿美元, 资产1024亿美元
    礼莱(EliLily) 美国 销售额 95 亿美元, 资产838亿美元
    美国家庭(American Home) 美国 销售额 125 亿美元, 资产781亿美元
    史密斯克莱(Smithkline Beechan) 英国 销售额 182 亿美元,资产722亿美元

      我们以上讨论了目前被认为是新兴经济的高科技代表的三个方面。在结束这一专题前,给出今年以来重点科技前四季的股市中表现(见表一)及未来预期的热门科技股、医药股(见表二)。

      重点科技前四季表现

    公司 代号 业务 昨日盘后
    成交价
    涨跌 Q3'99 Q4'99 Q1'00 Q2'00
    Keithley Instruments Inc. KEI 测试设备 76 3/4 +3/4 销售成长7%
    盈利($)0.21
    盈利成长 133%
    43%
    0.21
    320%
    53%
    0.31
    138%
    56%
    0.36
    125%
    Newport Corp NEWP 激光及光织设备 174 1/2 +9 3/4 销售成长6%
    盈利($)0.08
    盈利成长 4%
    24%
    0.10
    11%
    55%
    0.10
    200%
    45%
    0.14
    100%
    Pericom Semiconductor Corp PSEM 积体电路版 39 7/16 -2 11/16 销售成长21%
    盈利($)0.10
    盈利成长 25%
    38%
    0.12
    50%
    56%
    0.14
    65%
    90%
    0.19
    111%
    Adobe Systems Inc ADBE 绘图设计软件 158 -5 7/16 销售成长14%
    盈利($)0.46
    盈利成长 18%
    24%
    0.47
    57%
    22%
    0.52
    49%
    26%
    0.61
    53%
    Barra Inc. BARZ 理财投资分析软件 64 3/16 +3 9/16 销售成长12%
    盈利($)0.41
    盈利成长 28%
    150%
    0.01
    107%
    10%
    0.54
    145%
    28%
    0.70
    169%
    Globespan Inc. GSPN 宽频网晶片 113 +13 销售成长119%
    盈利($)-0.01
    盈利成长 N.A.
    150%
    0.01
    107%
    259%
    -0.12
    N.A.
    705%
    0.11
    283%

      表一(资料来源:《Sing Tao Daily》2000年10月5日

      前景可期热门科技股、医药股

    公司名称 代号 重点业务 EPS每股
    盈利平等
    SM公司营业
    绩效平等
    A/D公司股票
    量价平等
    前一日
    收盘价
    涨跌
    Emulux Crop EMLX 上网软件体及光纤频道产品 98 A A 119 +17 7/17
    Extreme Networks Tech CMNT 网络设备 90 C A 25 7/8 -1 3/4
    Broade Communications BRCD 网路存储设备 84 B B 216 11/16 +3 11/16
    JNI Corp JNIC 光纤网络设备 84 A A 84 1/4 +6 3/4
    Finisar Corp FNSR 光纤网络设 87 A A 46 31/32 +5 31/32
    Globespan Inc. GSPN 宽频网晶片 41 B A 113 +13
    C-Mac Industries Inc EMS 积体电子系统 99 A B 65 3/4 +5 1/4
    Primetech Electionics SPEL 通信设备 92 A B 14 13/16 +1 1/6
    Newport Corp NEWP 光纤通信设备 97 B B 174 1/2 +9 3/4
    Vertel Corp VRTL 通信网络软件 33 E B 8 +13/16
    Mcdata Corp MCDT 网路设备 77 C A 112 17/32 +5 1/32
    Proxim Inc PROX 无线通讯设备 92 A B 44 27/32 +2 19/32
    MMC networks Inc. MMCN 高功能网络处理器 57 B A 117 5/8 +8 1/4
    Performance Technologies PTIX 通讯网路介面卡 71 B B 13 1/4 -1/4
    MRV MRVC 网路产品及光纤设备 42 E D 44 13/16 -9/16

      表二、(资料来源:《Sing Tao Daily》2000年10月5日


      实例三、 第二层报价(Level Ceuote)

      两百年来,由于需求不同以及客观环境限制,只有证券公司、交易商、投资机构大户才能享受第二层报价服务。而网络时代的到来,又将改变美国股市这一年多来的习惯。
      要了解第二层报价,必须先了解一下报价系统。假设现在市场上有A、B、C三人分别想要在10 元、10.5元、11元出售500股、200股、300股的某股票。又假设同时市场上有甲乙丙三人分别想要在9.5元、9元、8元买进200股、1500 股、3000股的同一股票(假设之价格是为了解释方便,实际交易时价差很小)。将上述的买方与卖方要价依照价格高低排列起来,我们将得到下表:
      卖方数量要价……C 300 11 B200 10 1/2 A 500 10
      买方数量要价……甲200 9 1/2 乙1500 9 丙3000 8
      因此,最高买入方出价与最低卖方要价,是你立刻要卖出或买入的价格。证交所把这两个价格报出来给证券公司与投资人。就是bid 与ask。甲和A各自想要买卖的数量会以200*500的形式报出来,也就是所谓的SIZE。合起来,就是大家熟知的[B 9 1/2,A10, 200*500]的报价形式。这种光报出最高买方与卖方要价的报家价,称为"第一层"报价(Level I Quote)。
      所谓"第二层"报价,就是将全部出价与要价-不只是最高出价与最低要价-统统报出来的报价服务,也就是将上列整个表的信息都显示出来的报价服务。第一层与第二层报价都是只��"看"的报价,其实还有第三层报价(Level Ⅲ Quote),套用电脑术语,这是可读又可写的系统,授权使用者可以加入或剔除表中的报价。第三层报价系统只供交易商或市场买卖庄家(Market Make,也许永远不会开放给大众投资者。第二层报价被用来吸引投资者的好处主要有两点:
      1、 你可以知道你的订单将用什么价格成交。上例中假设你立刻要卖出2000股,你知道2000股将卖在9.5元,1500股将卖在9元,其余的300股卖在8元。
      2、 你可以借助有多少数量要在什么价格买卖,来了解那些价位有强力支撑或阻力。在上例中,第一层报价显示买方的支撑小于卖方的压力(200:500),但第二 层报价显示其他价位的买方支撑大于卖放方压力。短期交易者最需要这方面的信息。虽然如此,长久以来普通投资者都安于第一层报价。一方面,以往一般大众多做 中长期投资,一两个月后卖出已经算是短期交易了,很少有买进一分钟内随即卖出的。因此,买进股票后,股价的下一个跳动是那一方向无关紧要.另一方面以往股 市每日波动不大, 投资者多半可以在非常接近第一层报价的价位,买卖所有的股票。此外,在没有电脑的时代,资讯商必须到家里来安装一步终端机,所费不菲。甚少有人订购此一服 务。在今天的投资环境中,每个家庭、办公室几乎都有个人电脑及网络服务,传递资讯的条信已经存在,提供信息服务自然简单便宜多了。率先大众化的是股票的报 价、新闻、图表、研究报告等资讯。这些信息如今在网络上随手可得。免费的第二层报价服务刚刚开始有几家公司提供,相信不久也将蔓延成标准服务。当然第二层 报价也有他的局限,特别是在指示股价跳动方向这一方面。上述例中所显示的买方力量较大的状况,随时可改变。如果乙和丙决定将订单取消,那么突然间买方的强 力支撑就不见了。这并不是说市场就会有啥大变动,市场可能纹风不动,交易也照常进行。但是第二层报价现在却指向卖方力量较大。下一秒中,某人放一张买进 2000股的订单,第二层报价又回头指向买方力量较大。因而,第二层报价指示的交易情况会随着订单的随机进出而变动。如果投资者按照第二层报价的数据来判 断看涨或看跌,那么你可能分分秒秒都在改变策略。更有甚者,许多投资人不会将限价单放到市场中。他们在一旁观风,密切注意着行情变动,若是价格达到他们的 预期,便进场以市价完成买卖。其他投资人事先根本无法看到他们的意图。数量巨大的大宗交易(Block Trade) (象保险公司这样的超级大户) ,则一般会交由证券公司的交易部门,在不惊扰市场的情况下处理.也就是说,你看第二层报价荧屏上有几千股要买进,以为买方很强,但实际上还有几万股的卖单 提在交易商手里。只是你看不到而已。总而言之,第二层报价可以提供某些确实的卖买信息,但它无法提供完整的资讯。在投资者之间竞争激烈的时代,券商常常利 用投资大众无所不用其极想得到的优势的心理,来推销自己的服务。不法分子甚至制造虚假交易信息,诱导投资者。这是我们投资时要警惕的。

      实例四、内幕交易的侦察

      美国有关证券交易的法律规定,凡是得到内线交易消息,不管是第一手信息、来自朋友的第二手信息,不知来源的第三、第四手信息,或是无意中听到的信息。 只要用该信息来交易,就算违法。听到内线传闻想要发一笔横财的投资人将面临两个风险:其一,内线交易的整个过程中,有太多的地方可能遗留蛛丝马迹,引发美 国证管会(U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission)调查。其二,一旦证管会着手调查,内线交易无所遁形。因为平常不买股票的现在买了股票甚至期权。
      证管会的内幕交易侦察行动分为两个阶段,首先是一个非正式的"调查阶段"(Formal Investigation)。可能引发内线交易处理程序的因素包括内线交易新闻、投资人或股东的指控、全国证券交易商公会或州管理机构的有关建议;但更 主要的是证管会本身的观察。证管会有一个监管办公室,由精通证券法的律师担任监管人员。
      每天,这些人广泛且密集的浏览报章杂志,收听财经媒体的节目(特别是市场评论之类),接听密报电话(密报者有赏金), 并在电脑的帮助下监视市场交易,专门寻找可疑的情况。他们特别在意那些立即造成股价大幅涨跌的消息宣布。拿企业合并案例来说,证管会将侦察过去六个月内的 交易情况:股价的涨跌情况是否反映该企业的真实经营状况,还是反常的直线上升或下降?股票与期权的交易是否稳定?一般而言,一个重要消息公布之前,交易量 无故增加通常是内线交易的征兆。平常不敢把话讲得太死的市场分析师是否故做神秘,然而信誓旦旦的推荐买进某一股票。监督人员一旦发现可疑处,查寻阶段便开 始。证管会首先打一通电话给调查对象,告之已经开始非正式的查询,希望对方自愿回答一些问题。证管会在此一阶段没有传讯证人或要求证词的权力,它通常只要 求调查对象自愿合作。调查对象会被告知在这一阶段没有义务回答问题,私人律师可以在场。但是证券公司则必须提供证管会要求的所有资料。
      做大笔交易的投资人都应该熟悉面对证管会代表的姓名电话,告知有人会立即复电。然后通知公司的资深管理人员和律师出面回应证管会。
      调查对象的初步反应是影响后续调查的关键之一。如果调查对象逃避合作甚至采取放 态度,正式的调查行动将立即展开。如果调查对象用专业的态度与证管会合作,则可以减少证管会的怀疑。
      电话通知之后,证管会会寄上一份书面查询,列出希望调查对象提供的有助于了解案情的文件。在查询阶段,证管会要求的文件可能很广泛而相互少有关联。因 为证管会还不知道有什 违法的事情,只是针对各个重点分别查看。在企业购并案中,证管会可能想知道关于购并案中,证管会可能想知道关于购并案的重要日期时间(何时开始第一次商 谈?后续的商谈?决定何时做出?)、每次商谈的内容(签署初步谅解协议?议定购并条件?签署购并协议?)、相关证券的交易纪录、可能拥有购并消息的人员名 单(直接参与购并谈判的人员?公司高层的主管?文书助理?外聘的合约律师?会计师?印刷人员?不久前爆发的高盛内线交易案,设案的人员竟然是从垃圾桶内盗 取机密文件的清洁工人)。
      这一阶段,证管会虽然没有传讯的权力,调查对象也应尽力合作,尽量避免事件演化成正式调查。原因有:正式调查将更深入,需要更多的人力物力资源来应 付;正式调查的进行表示有疑点,证管会的行为最后将面对大众提出解释或指控;最后,正式调查将伴随负面的新闻报道,对于有商誉的公司可能造成较大的伤害。
      如果询价阶段发现有违法的事实,证管会按着向一个由2五位委员组成的监督委员会提出一份正式的调查备忘录,委员会必须批准备忘录,正式的调查才能够展开。
      正式调查备忘录中罗列了可能的违法行为。一旦获得批准,证管会将可传讯证人、收集物证。可调查的对象也涵盖全部可能拥有证据的人士,而不止于调查对 象。在正式调查对象阶段,被正式调查必须立刻弄清楚证管会的调查重点以及涵盖的范围,来制定最好的应付策略。怎样做最好,必须根据情况而定,律师的作用非 常重要。如果设案的是公司,最好在内部先行进行调查,然后才能知道证管会的指控有无依据。正式调查若发现违法事情,证管会将决定乘法。
      证管会没有刑事检查权,但可施加罚款三倍于非法获得的利润。情节严重的案件则移送联邦检查官办理。违法人士往后可能被禁止担保上市公司的管理人员,或禁止从事金融行业。如果设案的是证券经纪,证管会可能吊销其执照,重则将受到刑事处分。
      实例五: 证券收益的税务问题

      (一) 资本利得的税务问题

      从理论上而言,计算"资本利得或赔损"的方法,只是将出售所得减去购买时的花费而已。但是实际的投资过程中,有各种情形让这个问题变得非常复杂。如果股票是继承 又该如何处理?给出以下的几个情形来研究如何处理美国证券交易中资本利得的报税问题。
      (1) 全部告罄
      先从简单的情况讲起。如果你出售某一股票的全部股份,那么你的成本就是买如那些股份的成本。用交易确认书上的数字是最准确的方法,因为所有的手续费都 已经计算在成本之中。假设有从其他地方转移到帐户中的股份,也要计算这些股份的成本,尤其是小额的零散股份。
      (2) 部分出售
      只出售部分股份的情况复杂一点,尤其是一不同价格分批买进的时候。美国国税局[Internal Revenue Service]要问你的是,你出售的股票是什 价格买进的?这个问题之所以重要,是因为不同的卖劲意味着不同的成本,以及不同的税额。假设你50元买进100股,在60元又买进100股,最后在70元卖出100股。如果你卖出的是第一个100股,则你需要纳税的利润只有1000元。
      有两个方式可以指定你出售的是那些股票。首先,你可以在每次出售股票时告诉证券公司你所要卖出的是某年月日所买入的股份,证券公司便会在交易确认书上 注明[vs.purchase of **\**\****]。鉴于当天可能多次购买同一股票,还应加上购买的价格。一般而言,投资者希望尽量出售成本最高的股份以把利润降到最低。但是, 1997年纳税人减税法案当中的一个长期资本利得减税法条稍稍改变此一法则。该条款规定,从持有超过一年的投资所获得的[长期资本利得]只须缴最高20% 的税(短期利润的税率视个人情况而定,最高可达40%)。所以,有些时候投资者可能愿意出售成本较低的股份,以换取较低的税率。
      如果使用这种指定出售的方法,那 一年到头都必须坚持这样做,而不能等到事后才挑选哪一笔买进自己那一笔卖出。如果你偷懒没有这样做或是忘记,那 你别无选择,与能采用第二个方法"先进先出"(First In First Out, 简FIFO)。先进先出的方法也未必言好坏,你只是失去控制权。长期而言,多数股票会上涨,此一方法倾向于出售成本偏低的股份。
      (3) 赠予的证券
      如果你的股票是亲友赠予,那 你的成本是该亲友当时买进股票的成本,该亲友应能提供成本的资料。除非赠予当天证券价值低于当时买进的成本,则你的成本为赠予时当天的价值。
      (4) 继承的证券
      继承而来的证券应以死亡日期的价值成本。当然没有任何正式的资料会显示那个不幸日子的证券价值,你可以到图书馆或上网去查询当天的证券价格高低点,取其平均值来计算成本。
      (5) 遗失报表或交易确认书
      最准确的数字都在这些文件上。如果投资人遗失了这些文件,首先向你的证券公司要求副本,公司可能会收取一些费用。按美国法律规定,证券公司需要保存客 户资料六年,所以理论上过去六年内的文件都应可以得到副本。超过六年的文件(如你出售10年前购买缴款的股票,需要当时的交易确认书则不一定。好的证券公 司服务是很周到的,10年或者更长时间的资料,那 你可以用交叉引证的方式找出大致的购买日期。例如,投资人 调换工作,那 调换工作的日期就是购买日期。然后再根据该日期去图书馆上网查询价格。如果你连日期都没有,应该请税务师帮助。
      申报这类年代久远的交易有时只能估计,如果投资人想尽办法也找不到资料,国税局大概也找不到资料来难为你。若你的买卖数量不大,或估值交接近实情,国税局一般为通过报税,你尽可放心。因为你已经诚实地做了你应该做的事情。
      其他还有许多常见但极为复杂的情况,例如分股、收购等。这些都需要专家帮助。报税的一个金科玉律是如有疑问,请教专家。即使没有疑问,请专门的税务师报税也是一个好主意。今天的服务业竞争激烈,大众化的报税服务已经相当便宜和普及。
      (二) 冲洗法规

      在股市中赔钱的唯一好处,就美国而言,是索赔的钱可以用来抵减所得税。但是美国国税局设立了[冲洗售股法规]来禁止在股市中频繁炒做的投资人投机取巧。
      (1) 什么是Wash Sale
      Wash Sale是投资者把赔钱的股票卖掉,又在卖股日之前30天或者卖股日之后30天之内再度买回已卖的相同股票。
    日期的计算:从卖股日倒数30日之内或卖股日正数30日之内,连卖股日在内的61日(包括星期六、星期日及所有的假日)。
    股权(Options and Contracts)在卖股前后30日之内,因购股权而买到的股票也算Wash Sale。
      (2) Wash Sale的后果
      l Wash Sale的后果的股票损失不可从当时所得中减去。
      l 不能减去的损失要加到重新买回的股价上。
      l 持股日期要从已卖股票的原始购进日算起。
      这项法律的目的是防止投资者把长期损失(Long-term Loss)变成(Short-term Loss)对纳税人而言,短期损失的好处比长期损失多。
      (3) 有关Wash S ale应注意的事项
      Wash Sale条款只管辖赔钱卖股票。若赚钱卖股票则需立即算入当时所得不得延期。
      重新买回的股票必须是相同的股票(包括股权)与股数(Substantially Identical Stock)。
      以买卖股票为业者(Traders)可以免受Wash Sale条款的限制,但是要受另外条款(Wash Sale Rule to Traders)的限制。Wash Sale Rule to Traders
      相当复杂。诸如合格的限制,不能享有长期获利(Long-term Capital Coin)的优惠等等。
      买卖频繁的投资者应该与会计师商讨有Wash S ale Rule 的详情,一面遭到税务上的伤害与麻烦。
      (4) 避免Wash Sale的可行之道
      为了避开受到Wash Sale条款的限制,最佳的方法是等到卖股后31天之后在买回持股。此法的危险是所卖股票在31天后回涨,投资者要用更高的价格赎回。也可在卖股前的31 天先买回等数的相同股票。如此一算,若股价上涨,投资者的利得可以加倍,但若股价继续下跌,投资者损失也加倍。
      投资者若实在对持股爱不释手,又需要以投资赔款之额抵消所得税时,可以卖掉持股再买金进与持股性质相同的股票。例如某投资持有100股Wal Mart Storkes(代号WMT),由于经济的循环,零售业很有信心相信经济会很快好转,但因年底在即,很需要一些Capital Loss来抵冲自己的所得税。该投资者可以卖掉WMT,以卖股索赔的钱来冲抵所得,同时又以所卖WMT 款购买100股Home Depot Inc.(代号HD)。象WMT一样,HD也是零售业的龙头,像WMT一样,在零售业不景气时HD的股价也十分低迷。可是当零售业回暖时,WMT与HD会 首先回涨。如此,投资者即可等待零售业的回涨又可达到减税的目的。因为卖WMT买HD不算Wash Sale。
      综上,我们讨论了美国证券交易中的五个热点实例。中国近期加入WTO的现实,已令世界经济的发展进入一个崭新的时代。正如克林顿总统签署PENTS时说的那样:中国的入会将使美国的子孙万代得益,当然中国的万代子孙也将获益无穷 。此世纪,我们应努力学习,踏实工作,缩小经济差距,才是务实之举。

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