Monday, August 21, 2006
Asia: Good morning at last; Vietnam
The Economist. London: Aug 5, 2006.Vol.380, Iss. 8489; pg. 50
An economic boom is accompanied by remarkable success in getting rid of poverty and raising life expectancy
SIGNS of rapid development are visible everywhere around Hanoi: from the flashy sport-utility vehicles on the city's roads to the dormitory villages of smart "executive" homes rising among the fields on the capital's outskirts. George Bush and other world leaders will see it for themselves when Hanoi hosts the Asia-Pacific economic summit in November. That meeting will take place in a new satellite-city, Tu Liem, which is now being built on Hanoi's south-western edge. The futuristic conference centre, with a distinctive wavy glass roof, looks almost finished. Nearby, a huge five-star hotel is getting a final coat of paint. Along Tu Liem's broad, four-lane avenues, some apartment blocks are already occupied, others are just steel skeletons. Between the building sites, cows and buffalo still graze in what was open pasture only recently.
Before starting its doi moi market-oriented reforms in the mid-1980s, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam flirted with real communism and came close to famine. Since then, a reform process that was uneven at first has gathered momentum. Recent economic growth, though not quite as stellar as China's, has been remarkable. In 2001-05 it averaged over 7.5%, reaching a peak of 8.4% last year. This year the government is going all out to hit an 8% target.
Since 1990, Vietnam's exports have increased faster than China's. Their growth shows no signs of slackening. Between January and July they amounted to $22 billion, a year-on-year rise of over 25%. Having alarmed the Brazilians by becoming their main competitor in coffee growing, Vietnam is now ramping up its exports of everything from shrimps to ships to shoes (the last prompting the European Union to announce anti-dumping tariffs last month). It has just become the world's largest exporter of pepper and aims soon to overtake Thailand in rice. It is even selling tea to India.
Foreign-owned factories are chalking up the fastest gains. The government's aim of increasing electronics exports by 27% annually should be boosted by Intel's recent decision to build a $605m microchip plant in Ho Chi Minh City. Though farmers' harvests are still rising, industry's still-higher growth rate means that agriculture's share of economic output continues to shrink--from about 25% in 2000 to 21% last year. By 2010 it may be down to 15%.
This economic revolution is being accompanied by a social one. Though Vietnam is still, overall, one of Asia's poorest countries, with income per head behind India's, its recent growth has been impressively egalitarian. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) reckons that deep poverty in Vietnam--defined as a daily income equivalent to under $1--is now only slightly more prevalent than the average for South-East Asia, whereas in 1990 Vietnam's figure was more than twice the regional average (see charts). By this measure, Vietnam has overtaken China, India and the Philippines and now has only slightly more poverty than Indonesia.
Life expectancy has jumped and infant mortality plunged since the 1990s. Vietnam does better on both these counts than Thailand, a far richer country. Almost three-quarters of Vietnamese children of secondary-school age are in class, up from about a third in 1990. Again, Vietnam has overtaken China, India and Indonesia.
The new five-year plan, approved at April's congress of the ruling Communist Party, is laden with targets for increasing output and improving infrastructure, with the objective of making Vietnam a modern, industrial nation by 2020. Of course, other Asian countries' leaders, from Malaysia to the Philippines, declare similar objectives. The difference is that Vietnam's rulers seem to mean it--and their recent record suggests they might pull it off.
The April congress was preceded by a purge of high officials suspected of corruption--most notably at a road-building agency where some staff stole millions of dollars to bet on football matches. While Nong Duc Manh, the party's general secretary, has survived, the other two members of the ruling triumvirate--the president and prime minister--have since been dropped in favour of youngish, southern Vietnamese officials, seen as supporters of continued economic reform.
Good times, bad times
Vietnam is on a roll and its prospects look good. But much could still go wrong. As Vietnam joins the global economy (it should become a member of the World Trade Organisation in the coming year or so) it is becoming more vulnerable to volatile commodity prices and fickle bond-market investors, whose gyrations are largely outside its control. The recent export surge has been helped by strong global demand and high prices for the things Vietnam sells, from rice to crude oil, but a world recession--or an economic bust in China--could cause a big slowdown. The government is racing to build enough power stations, roads and railways to keep the economy moving. Any delays in these would spell trouble.
The communist government's continuing acceptance by ordinary Vietnamese rests largely on its success in delivering prosperity and better public services. If it fails to reduce corruption or produce jobs for the more than 1m young Vietnamese who join the labour force each year and the 1m villagers migrating to the cities, the country's social cohesion and sense of purpose would be in danger.
That makes it vital to accelerate the government's programme to restructure and sell thousands of state-owned firms. They are more graft-prone than private companies, and devour the lion's share of scarce land and credit while creating few new jobs. The private sector provides most of the growth in jobs and exports, but would do better still if it was not crowded out by the public sector. Le Dang Doanh, an economic adviser to the government, reckons that, but for the vested interests slowing down privatisation, Vietnam could now be growing at 11%, just like China.
机器翻译：
亞洲： 終於早晨好； 越南
一種經濟的繁榮在擺脫貧窮和提高預期使用壽命時由值得注意的成功陪伴
迅速的發展的徵候在河內各處到處是可以見到的： 從城市的道路上的浮華的體育運動效用車輛到在首都的郊區上的領域中間升起的聰明的“經理人”家庭的宿舍村莊。當河內在十一月主持亞洲及太平洋的經濟的最高層時，喬治布希和其它世界領導者將為了他們自己看見它。 會議將在一個新的衛星城市發生，Tu Liem，這現在在河內的南方西方邊界上被建立。 未來的會議中心，用一個明顯的起浪的玻璃房頂，看幾乎完成。鄰近，巨大五星旅館得到塗料的一件最後的上衣。 沿著Tu Liem廣闊，，四路徑路某種公寓塊已經被佔有，其他人是公正的鋼骨架。在工地，母牛和buffalo之間仍然在中擦傷開啟的牧場什麼最近僅僅。
在在mid-1980s中起始其doi moi面向市場的改革之前，越南的社會主義者共和國調情真正的共產主義並且接近饑荒。 自那時以來，一種改革處理首先是不平坦已彙整銳勢。最近的經濟增長，作為恆星儘管並非十分作為中國` s，已經是值得注意的。 在2001-05中它平均為超過7.5%，去年到達8.4%的一個高峰。政府今年全力去擊中8%個目標。
自從1990以來，越南的出口已比中國增加快` s。 他們的增長沒有顯示任何減緩放慢的蹟象。在一月和七月之間他們共計$22十億，超過25%的一種与上年同期數字相比的升高。已透過在咖啡成長時成為他們的主要的競爭者驚動巴西人，越南現在從蝦到若干船是斜坡梯到鞋子(最後秘訣歐盟上個月宣佈反傾銷的關稅)在其出口每件事上。它已剛成為世界胡椒的的最大出口商並且旨在很快在稻米中趕超泰國。 它甚至把茶出售到印度。
外國擁有的工廠是粉筆在最速成的獲得上。把電子學出口增加27%的政府的目標每年應該被英特爾的最近的決定推進在胡志明市中建立一個$605m微型晶片工廠。儘管農民的收穫仍然升起，工業仍然較高的增長率意味著那個經濟的輸出的農業的部份繼續去年拉遠在2000到21%中--從大約25%。到2010年它可以是下來到15%。
這個經濟的革命由社會的一個陪伴。 儘管越南是靜止，全面的，亞洲的最貧窮國家之一，` s，有了每在印度後面的頭收入其最近的增長已經是給人以深刻印象egalitarian。 亞洲開發銀行( ADB )在越南那麼深在$1下計算貧窮到--被定義為一筆每日收入相等物--比東南亞的平均值現在僅僅稍更流行，而在1990年越南的圖中超過兩次地區的平均值 (看見圖表)。 這個措施，越南已趕超中國，印度和菲律賓並且比印尼現在有僅僅稍更多貧窮。
預期使用壽命跳躍和幼兒死亡率自從九十年代以來投入。 越南在這兩計數上比泰國做得更好，一個遙遠的較富有的國家。 次要學校時代的越南的孩子中的幾乎三點四分之一個從在課中，在1990年中的三分之一。 再一次，越南已趕超中國，印度和印尼。
新的五年計畫，在四月統治的共產黨的的國會認可，是增加輸出和改進基礎設施的目標的充滿的，用做越南的目標現代，2020年的工業化國家。當然，其它亞洲國家的領導者，從馬來西亞到菲律賓，宣告類似的目標。 區別是越南的統治者似乎意味著它--和他們的最近的記錄建議他們可以拉它。
四月國會被先于清除被懷疑腐化的高階官員--最顯著地在某種人員偷竊數百萬美元就足球比賽打賭的一個道路建設的機構。 當時Nong Duc Manh，黨的總書記，已得救，--總統和首相--從那以後被投下贊成年輕而南方的越南的官員的統治的三執政的其它兩個成員，被視為繼續的經濟的改革的支援者。
好的時代，壞的時代
越南在一本捲上，而其期望看利益。 但是，許多仍然能出故障。當越南加入它變得更易受易揮發的日用品價格和易變的合約市場投資者的攻擊的全球的經濟(它應該成為中的世界貿易組織的一個成員來年左右)時，誰的 gyrations在其控制外部是很大程度上。 最近的出口波濤被強壯的全球要求說明，而對于事情越南的高的價格出售，從稻米到原油，但是一世界衰退--或者中國的一塊經濟的破產--能造成一種大的放緩。 政府是建立足夠發電站，道路和鐵路保持經濟搬動的競賽。任何在這些中的延遲將拼字麻煩。
普通的越南人休息的共產主義的政府的繼續的接受很大程度上在其傳輸繁榮和較好的公務的成功上。 如果它沒能減少腐化或者生產工作為了每年加入勞動力的超過1m年輕越南人，並且遷移到城市，國家目的的的社會的內聚力和感覺的1m村民將是處於危險之中的。
那使加速政府的計劃調整和出售成千上萬的國有商行至關重要。他們比私人的公司是更多收賄容易傾向于，並且當建立極少新的工作時貪婪地吃盯著看不充足的陸地和信譽的獅子的部份。私營部門在工作中提供大多數增長並且出口，但是如果它靠公眾的部份不擁擠，仍然將做得更好。 Le Dang Doanh，對政府的一位經濟的顧問，計算那一點，但是對於減慢privatisation的既定的利益，越南能11%現在成長，就象中國。 ¶ 1:01 AM
An economic boom is accompanied by remarkable success in getting rid of poverty and raising life expectancy
SIGNS of rapid development are visible everywhere around Hanoi: from the flashy sport-utility vehicles on the city's roads to the dormitory villages of smart "executive" homes rising among the fields on the capital's outskirts. George Bush and other world leaders will see it for themselves when Hanoi hosts the Asia-Pacific economic summit in November. That meeting will take place in a new satellite-city, Tu Liem, which is now being built on Hanoi's south-western edge. The futuristic conference centre, with a distinctive wavy glass roof, looks almost finished. Nearby, a huge five-star hotel is getting a final coat of paint. Along Tu Liem's broad, four-lane avenues, some apartment blocks are already occupied, others are just steel skeletons. Between the building sites, cows and buffalo still graze in what was open pasture only recently.
Before starting its doi moi market-oriented reforms in the mid-1980s, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam flirted with real communism and came close to famine. Since then, a reform process that was uneven at first has gathered momentum. Recent economic growth, though not quite as stellar as China's, has been remarkable. In 2001-05 it averaged over 7.5%, reaching a peak of 8.4% last year. This year the government is going all out to hit an 8% target.
Since 1990, Vietnam's exports have increased faster than China's. Their growth shows no signs of slackening. Between January and July they amounted to $22 billion, a year-on-year rise of over 25%. Having alarmed the Brazilians by becoming their main competitor in coffee growing, Vietnam is now ramping up its exports of everything from shrimps to ships to shoes (the last prompting the European Union to announce anti-dumping tariffs last month). It has just become the world's largest exporter of pepper and aims soon to overtake Thailand in rice. It is even selling tea to India.
Foreign-owned factories are chalking up the fastest gains. The government's aim of increasing electronics exports by 27% annually should be boosted by Intel's recent decision to build a $605m microchip plant in Ho Chi Minh City. Though farmers' harvests are still rising, industry's still-higher growth rate means that agriculture's share of economic output continues to shrink--from about 25% in 2000 to 21% last year. By 2010 it may be down to 15%.
This economic revolution is being accompanied by a social one. Though Vietnam is still, overall, one of Asia's poorest countries, with income per head behind India's, its recent growth has been impressively egalitarian. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) reckons that deep poverty in Vietnam--defined as a daily income equivalent to under $1--is now only slightly more prevalent than the average for South-East Asia, whereas in 1990 Vietnam's figure was more than twice the regional average (see charts). By this measure, Vietnam has overtaken China, India and the Philippines and now has only slightly more poverty than Indonesia.
Life expectancy has jumped and infant mortality plunged since the 1990s. Vietnam does better on both these counts than Thailand, a far richer country. Almost three-quarters of Vietnamese children of secondary-school age are in class, up from about a third in 1990. Again, Vietnam has overtaken China, India and Indonesia.
The new five-year plan, approved at April's congress of the ruling Communist Party, is laden with targets for increasing output and improving infrastructure, with the objective of making Vietnam a modern, industrial nation by 2020. Of course, other Asian countries' leaders, from Malaysia to the Philippines, declare similar objectives. The difference is that Vietnam's rulers seem to mean it--and their recent record suggests they might pull it off.
The April congress was preceded by a purge of high officials suspected of corruption--most notably at a road-building agency where some staff stole millions of dollars to bet on football matches. While Nong Duc Manh, the party's general secretary, has survived, the other two members of the ruling triumvirate--the president and prime minister--have since been dropped in favour of youngish, southern Vietnamese officials, seen as supporters of continued economic reform.
Good times, bad times
Vietnam is on a roll and its prospects look good. But much could still go wrong. As Vietnam joins the global economy (it should become a member of the World Trade Organisation in the coming year or so) it is becoming more vulnerable to volatile commodity prices and fickle bond-market investors, whose gyrations are largely outside its control. The recent export surge has been helped by strong global demand and high prices for the things Vietnam sells, from rice to crude oil, but a world recession--or an economic bust in China--could cause a big slowdown. The government is racing to build enough power stations, roads and railways to keep the economy moving. Any delays in these would spell trouble.
The communist government's continuing acceptance by ordinary Vietnamese rests largely on its success in delivering prosperity and better public services. If it fails to reduce corruption or produce jobs for the more than 1m young Vietnamese who join the labour force each year and the 1m villagers migrating to the cities, the country's social cohesion and sense of purpose would be in danger.
That makes it vital to accelerate the government's programme to restructure and sell thousands of state-owned firms. They are more graft-prone than private companies, and devour the lion's share of scarce land and credit while creating few new jobs. The private sector provides most of the growth in jobs and exports, but would do better still if it was not crowded out by the public sector. Le Dang Doanh, an economic adviser to the government, reckons that, but for the vested interests slowing down privatisation, Vietnam could now be growing at 11%, just like China.
机器翻译：
亞洲： 終於早晨好； 越南
一種經濟的繁榮在擺脫貧窮和提高預期使用壽命時由值得注意的成功陪伴
迅速的發展的徵候在河內各處到處是可以見到的： 從城市的道路上的浮華的體育運動效用車輛到在首都的郊區上的領域中間升起的聰明的“經理人”家庭的宿舍村莊。當河內在十一月主持亞洲及太平洋的經濟的最高層時，喬治布希和其它世界領導者將為了他們自己看見它。 會議將在一個新的衛星城市發生，Tu Liem，這現在在河內的南方西方邊界上被建立。 未來的會議中心，用一個明顯的起浪的玻璃房頂，看幾乎完成。鄰近，巨大五星旅館得到塗料的一件最後的上衣。 沿著Tu Liem廣闊，，四路徑路某種公寓塊已經被佔有，其他人是公正的鋼骨架。在工地，母牛和buffalo之間仍然在中擦傷開啟的牧場什麼最近僅僅。
在在mid-1980s中起始其doi moi面向市場的改革之前，越南的社會主義者共和國調情真正的共產主義並且接近饑荒。 自那時以來，一種改革處理首先是不平坦已彙整銳勢。最近的經濟增長，作為恆星儘管並非十分作為中國` s，已經是值得注意的。 在2001-05中它平均為超過7.5%，去年到達8.4%的一個高峰。政府今年全力去擊中8%個目標。
自從1990以來，越南的出口已比中國增加快` s。 他們的增長沒有顯示任何減緩放慢的蹟象。在一月和七月之間他們共計$22十億，超過25%的一種与上年同期數字相比的升高。已透過在咖啡成長時成為他們的主要的競爭者驚動巴西人，越南現在從蝦到若干船是斜坡梯到鞋子(最後秘訣歐盟上個月宣佈反傾銷的關稅)在其出口每件事上。它已剛成為世界胡椒的的最大出口商並且旨在很快在稻米中趕超泰國。 它甚至把茶出售到印度。
外國擁有的工廠是粉筆在最速成的獲得上。把電子學出口增加27%的政府的目標每年應該被英特爾的最近的決定推進在胡志明市中建立一個$605m微型晶片工廠。儘管農民的收穫仍然升起，工業仍然較高的增長率意味著那個經濟的輸出的農業的部份繼續去年拉遠在2000到21%中--從大約25%。到2010年它可以是下來到15%。
這個經濟的革命由社會的一個陪伴。 儘管越南是靜止，全面的，亞洲的最貧窮國家之一，` s，有了每在印度後面的頭收入其最近的增長已經是給人以深刻印象egalitarian。 亞洲開發銀行( ADB )在越南那麼深在$1下計算貧窮到--被定義為一筆每日收入相等物--比東南亞的平均值現在僅僅稍更流行，而在1990年越南的圖中超過兩次地區的平均值 (看見圖表)。 這個措施，越南已趕超中國，印度和菲律賓並且比印尼現在有僅僅稍更多貧窮。
預期使用壽命跳躍和幼兒死亡率自從九十年代以來投入。 越南在這兩計數上比泰國做得更好，一個遙遠的較富有的國家。 次要學校時代的越南的孩子中的幾乎三點四分之一個從在課中，在1990年中的三分之一。 再一次，越南已趕超中國，印度和印尼。
新的五年計畫，在四月統治的共產黨的的國會認可，是增加輸出和改進基礎設施的目標的充滿的，用做越南的目標現代，2020年的工業化國家。當然，其它亞洲國家的領導者，從馬來西亞到菲律賓，宣告類似的目標。 區別是越南的統治者似乎意味著它--和他們的最近的記錄建議他們可以拉它。
四月國會被先于清除被懷疑腐化的高階官員--最顯著地在某種人員偷竊數百萬美元就足球比賽打賭的一個道路建設的機構。 當時Nong Duc Manh，黨的總書記，已得救，--總統和首相--從那以後被投下贊成年輕而南方的越南的官員的統治的三執政的其它兩個成員，被視為繼續的經濟的改革的支援者。
好的時代，壞的時代
越南在一本捲上，而其期望看利益。 但是，許多仍然能出故障。當越南加入它變得更易受易揮發的日用品價格和易變的合約市場投資者的攻擊的全球的經濟(它應該成為中的世界貿易組織的一個成員來年左右)時，誰的 gyrations在其控制外部是很大程度上。 最近的出口波濤被強壯的全球要求說明，而對于事情越南的高的價格出售，從稻米到原油，但是一世界衰退--或者中國的一塊經濟的破產--能造成一種大的放緩。 政府是建立足夠發電站，道路和鐵路保持經濟搬動的競賽。任何在這些中的延遲將拼字麻煩。
普通的越南人休息的共產主義的政府的繼續的接受很大程度上在其傳輸繁榮和較好的公務的成功上。 如果它沒能減少腐化或者生產工作為了每年加入勞動力的超過1m年輕越南人，並且遷移到城市，國家目的的的社會的內聚力和感覺的1m村民將是處於危險之中的。
那使加速政府的計劃調整和出售成千上萬的國有商行至關重要。他們比私人的公司是更多收賄容易傾向于，並且當建立極少新的工作時貪婪地吃盯著看不充足的陸地和信譽的獅子的部份。私營部門在工作中提供大多數增長並且出口，但是如果它靠公眾的部份不擁擠，仍然將做得更好。 Le Dang Doanh，對政府的一位經濟的顧問，計算那一點，但是對於減慢privatisation的既定的利益，越南能11%現在成長，就象中國。 ¶ 1:01 AM
