金闲评
Thursday, August 30, 2007
  中国的政策不能跟着美国走
2007年08月30日 南方周末
谢国忠 独立经济学家

  经济学圈子里有一个说法,10个经济学家至少有11个观点。今天很让人意外,大家就一个观点——人民币要涨,只是要涨少还是多,有的人说大涨,有人说少涨,反正听上去都是涨。下面听的人肯定都非常激动,像台湾人、香港人听了特激动,把自己家里的家具、房子全卖了,全搬到内地来,就等着人民币涨,等了三年还没涨,结果把深圳的房地产炒得跟香港一样高,突然发现人民币没涨,炒房子的倒是炒出钱来了,也不错,所以他继续炒。

  我说这个故事实际上是说,中国汇率升值的压力到底有多少,是炒出来的,还是真的,现在真难说。中国的外汇储备的增加可能大部分都是这种心态来的。

  经济学对经济发展没有什么好的解释,我原来想学发展经济学,后来看了半天没看出名堂来,就不学了。发展成功有两个重要的现象,一个是政府领头,第二个是固定汇率。没有一个国家发展成功不靠这两条,这两条可是经济学里的大计呀。政府领头,政府的效益比市场要低,为什么要政府领头呢?固定汇率,这是汇率价格不灵活,非常不灵。但是你看成功的国家都是这么过来的,包括美国在内,在19世纪。所以这个里头就要好好想一想,就是你要把这两条放弃的话,你得好好想一想,没有人放弃这两条能获得成功的。

  一个主要原因就是发展中国家很多东西都不确定,它需要政府代替很多市场的作用,很多不完善的地方都是政府来做的。第二点就是说,它会用国际的一个平台,来完善你国内的有缺陷的地方。这两条我觉得很重要,但我不敢说就是这样,要是我能证明这点我也能拿一个诺贝尔奖了。

  中国现在的宏观问题,是从美国的科技泡沫崩溃以后,“9•11”之后,美联储降息降到1%,引起美元供应量的大幅度上升引起来的。我们实际上看到的很多现象,包括对冲基金炒,私募基金炒啊,石油炒得高,上海房地产炒得高,深圳房地产高都是这样引起来的。因为美元还是世界经济的本币,它的供应量的波动对世界经济的平衡的影响还是非常大。美元的大幅度增加引起了美国的逆差,不是中国有顺差就是别人有顺差,这个顺差是跑不了的。

  但如果我们中国做出很大的政策调整,就是因为美国的五年前的政策,这个值得吗?理智吗?还是要从自己的利益去看,要靠自己判断,如果美国政策一直是这样下去的,大家都要调整。但如果美国的这个政策不是很持续的,它以后要掉头回来,你现在调整的话就不一定有利。

  我觉得很多现在说的话都是站不住脚的,我不是说人民币汇率不该升,只是我们看到很多压力是美国政策引起来的,也不知道美国政策明天会什么样,要有自己的判断。

  中国的问题主要是微观的问题,不是宏观的问题。现在大家都讲生产成本给低估了,每个地方都要发展经济,要发展经济就是靠GDP,靠GDP就要补贴生产。现在说汇率上升会引起恶性循环,我看到很多轻纺企业的人现在压力很大,压力大的时候干什么?把那个产品的质量往下降,偷工减料,这样来竞争。所以你说本来涨货币是要资产分配得好一点,结果资产分配得更坏了,因为当地的书记都支持他。这个工厂不能关门,我们得活下去,你跟我说活下去怎么办,那个工厂就说我们要偷工减料。所以我觉得那个货币调整起不了作用。

  最主要的是中国如果把生产成本完全反映出来的话,货币不一定是给低估了。你像从环保,从出口退税、地的价格、人的福利,中国这些东西都微观调整的话,生产成本会大幅度上升的。所以靠宏观调整不一定是对的。

  我不是说人民币不能升,而是说要等微观的东西都调整好、看美国的政策怎么变了之后,如果人民币还低估了,那可以也涨一点。要涨多少,我现在还很难说。
 
  通过香港招行一卡通收回PayPal资金
转载自月光博客

  好消息,目前中国大陆用户可以通过招商银行香港一卡通收回(Withdraw)PayPal上的美元了。中国人收美元又有了一个新方法。

   目前中国大陆用户开放了可以收回资金的香港银行账户,在PayPal主界面,点提款(Withdraw),即可以选择国家,其中有美国和香港两个选择, 办理美国的银行帐户进行转款也是一个不错的选择,但是大部分的美国银行不接受没有安全号的外国公民的申请,并且可能要去美国本地办理,较为麻烦。香港的帐 号可以选择香港招商银行,招行的这种卡可以在大陆办理(需要先办理护照或港澳通行证),目前PayPal转到这个卡,会自动将美元转换为港币,这会使得资 金在汇率转换上有一点损失,不过这时里面香港账户的资金可以在大陆取出来(需要交部分手续费)。这大概是大陆居民从PayPal收钱的最快捷的方法了。

  参考文章:在PayPal.COM上注册的中国用户可通过该帐户实现PayPal帐户资金的收回Withdraw(原载:易趣网-华商外贸咨询)

  ·本文内容可供参考的PayPal用户(帐户)对象

   本文中提到的“PayPal帐户”或“PayPal用户”是指:在www.paypal.com平台上注册CHINA地区的帐户/用户,不包括在 www.paypal.com.cn平台上注册的帐号/用户,也不包括在www.paypal.com平台上注册的HONGKONG地区的帐户/用户。

  ·什么是两地“一卡通”?

   两地“一卡通”,是由招商银行香港分行发行的、特别为经常往来内地/香港之人士而设计的综合理财银行卡(英文为All-In-One Card Account)。其申领对象包括内地人士及香港人士。其特点是持卡人一卡在手,即可同时拥有了内地和香港两地的银行帐户(集4种帐户于一身:香港美元往 来帐户、香港港币往来帐户、内地港币活期帐户、内地人民币活期帐户)。此卡是标准的香港银行卡(属于国际银行卡的标准制式);从外观上看,应该与美国本地 的银行卡制式相容。

  ·内地人士如何申办自己的两地“一卡通”?

  内地申领人在银行办理申请时必须同时出具以下2类证件(证件由银行接待人员复印留存):

  (1)本人的护照或港澳通行证(主要证件); (如果需要办理,携带户口簿、身份证,到本地公安局出入境管理处办理)

  (2)本人的内地身份证(参考证件)。

  同时,申领人须填写一份《申请表》。由于该《申请表》一次完成、涂改无效,所以申领人最好事先确认自己的注册信息。

一卡通申请表
一卡通申请表
一卡通申请表

  招商银行的接待人员会把你填的《申请表》,连同你身份证、护照或港澳通行证的复印件留下来。同时并告诉你:

  (1)他们会把你的资料投递到招商银行香港分行去批准;

  (2)待帐户批准后(估计10多天以后),会先把你的卡号告知你,通知你把55元港币的费用存入这个指定的帐户(含第一年年费50元港币)。

  (3)等收到你寄的55元港币的费用后,香港招行才会去制作实体的卡片。

  (4)估计30天后,香港招行会把“两地卡”连同“证书关联码”寄到你指定的联系地址——“证书关联码”可用于个人网上银行专业版。

  (5)收到实体卡片以后,你要拨打香港招行的客服电话,让他们开通你的帐户。工作人员在核实你的身份后就会开通这个帐户的各项功能。

  从此,你就变成了一个两栖动物了,可以完全操控自己的两地“一卡通”帐户了。

  ·内地人士在内地招行申办两地“一卡通”帐户时的注意事项

  (1)提醒银行工作人员:你要办的是招商银行香港分行发行的“两地一卡通”帐号,不是普通的国内“一卡通”帐户;

  (2)请带好上面提及的2类身份证件;

  (3)如果银行工作人员问你:“你是香港居民吗?”——标准答案只有一个:“不是,我是内地居民”。

  (4)如果银行工作人员问你:“作为内地居民,你为何要办理”两地一卡通“帐户?”——标准答案有2个:A) 我去香港旅游;B) 我去香港出差。(如果你到了香港去办理,估计不会问你这些问题了。)

  ·内地人士到哪里申办自己的两地“一卡通”帐户?

  (1)招商银行并不是在每个地方都有营业网点的。

  (2)即使你附近有招行的营业点,但也未必被授权接待办理香港分行的两地“一卡通”业务。

   所以,内地用户必须去指定的营业网点去办理此项业务。有效的办法是:在带好证件出门以前,最好先拨打招行的客服电话95555咨询——询问你所在的地区 是否可以办理,如果不可以,就问清距离你所在地区最近的受理网点在哪里,等等。不必担心:因为“两地一卡通”是加入内地“银联”的银行卡,所以,无论你在 哪里申办的卡,都可以在家门口的银联ATM机上提款,都可以通过登录互联网来实现网上银行的帐户操作。

  ·两地“一卡通”帐户的功能特点和操作

  (1)无需到香港签署开户书,可以在内地指定网点直接办理;

  (2)无需本人在香港的固定电话或地址,凭身份证+护照或港澳通行证即可办理。

  (3)年费只需50元港币。

  (4)可在内地任一银联的ATM机上取款;如果在内地招商银行的ATM机上取款,费用全免!

  (5)集美元、港币、人民币三大币种于一身,集香港港币往来帐户、香港美元往来帐户,内地港币活期帐户、内地人民币活期帐户于一身;在消费或取款时,如果某一个币种余额不足,会自动将其他币种的余额转换成你需要的币种,供你使用。

  ·两地“一卡通”帐户在申办及使用中的费用

  (1)到公安局申领护照或港澳通行证的费用:人民币200元

  (2)在内地申办两地一卡通帐户的费用:港币55元(含第一年的年费50元港币)

  (3)从PayPal通过银行电汇撤款到香港两地一卡通帐户的费用:低于1000元港币的每笔收取3.5元港币的手续费;单笔1000元港币以上的全部免费。

  (4)汇率计算:HK帐户上有港币,如果开通了自动转人民币的功能,在内地以RMB形式取款,余额不足的自动从港币转换,并按招行总行当天公布的外汇牌价计算汇率。

  (5)卡内港币在内地进行招行柜面港币提现,服务费收0.5%(最低HKD20/USD3,最高HKD100/USD13)。每天最多提款15000元港币。

  (6)卡内人民币内地进行招行柜面人民币提现,按0.5%收取手续费。(深圳区分行以内:当日累计10万以下的免柜台手续费的,10万以上(不含10万)至20万的,每次收取手续费20元,20万(不含20万)以上的按提取金额的0.07% 手续费。)

  (7)卡内人民币内地进行ATM机人民币提现,免手续费(提款限额参照银联规定),在其他银行ATM机取现每笔收RMB2元手续费。

  (8)汇兑损失。包括在PayPal上从美元兑成港币撤款的汇兑损失,以及在内地将卡内港币以人民币提现时发生的汇兑损失。详细请参见《一卡通业务收费表》。

  ·如何在PAYPAL帐户中添加两地“一卡通”帐户

  (1)登录www.paypal.com,进入My Account首页;

  (2)点开My Account下面最右端的Profile页面;

  (3)点开Financial Information (财务信息)下列的Bank Account(银行帐户),进入Add a Bank Account (添加一个银行帐户的页面)输入一卡通帐户信息。

PAYPAL

  (4)目前,PAYPAL的CHINA用户还不能看到添加“一卡通”帐户的输入页面。但要从PP帐户内撤款到香港的两地一卡通帐户,起码要提供如下路径信息:

  ——A)Bank Name(银行名称):CHINA MERCHANTS BANK (HONG KONG BRANCH)

  ——B)SWIFT CODE (SWIFT代码):CMBCHKHH

  ——C)Account Name(帐户姓名):你的两地“一卡通”帐户的注册姓名

  ——D)Account Number (收款帐号):你自己的两地“一卡通”卡片上的16位帐号

  (参见:招商银行香港分行关于汇入汇款的操作说明)

   (5)在PayPal.com上添加任何撤款的银行帐户,PayPal要对你添加的银行帐户进行验证。验证的方式是寄2笔小钱(比如 US.13/US.09之类的)到你的银行帐户里,5-7天后你在自己被添加的银行帐户记录内发现这两笔小钱的收款到帐记录,在回到PayPal.com 上把这两笔小钱的具体数额填入(两笔金额在输入时没有先后次序),如果你填入的数值正确,那么就算银行帐号添加成功了。此后才可以通过这个银行帐户撤款。

  ·如何通过添加的两地“一卡通”帐户来从PAYPAL帐户中撤款

  (1)首先,要按上面所说的办法在自己的PP帐户内把两地一卡通帐户添加成功。 (PAYPAL.COM平台上的CHINA用户,何时可以在自己的页面里添加两地一卡通,见下面的标题)。

  (2)开启IE(建议操作PAYPAL,每次重新开启IE浏览器),输入www.paypal.com网址。

  (3)键入用户名、密码,进入My Account的概览页面(Overview)。

  (4)点开进入右面的Withdraw(撤款)页面。

PAYPAL

  (5)在Withdraw页面中,选择点击Transfer funds to your bank account (往你的银行帐户中转款)。

PAYPAL

  (6)在上面这个页面中,在Amount(数额)后面的空白栏中,输入自己申请转出的金额,点击Continue(继续)。

  (7)PayPal会弹出一个再次确认的窗口,点击确认,就算完成了。接下来,就等着在两地一卡通里查收这笔数额了。

  (8)从PayPal转款到香港的两地一卡通帐户,标准时间需要5-7个工作日完成。

   (9)对于标准的HK银行帐户,PayPal.com平台上转出的币种只能是港币。这里面有一个汇率损失的问题。在PayPal.com上,用户的帐户 余额从一个币种(比如US$)Exchange成另外一个币种(比如HKD),PayPal按协议可以收取2.5%的Currency Exchanging Cost(币种兑换费)。对于用户,如果他的帐户被视为HK的帐户,那么系统就按照HK的用户系统来操作。估计会有这部分的周转费用。如果撤款金额不大, 可以跟节省下来的电汇费相抵;如果一次撤款数量较大,估计费用就比较突显了。有路,总比没路强。不知道PP那里能不能通融通融,对已经走头无路的中国“曲 线救国大军”优待俘虏 , 但汇兑损失真的很难回避:如果PP把港币交给招行,肯定在PP帐户里要发生汇兑;如果PP把USD交给招行,那么PP对于HK用户的系统要全面推翻—— PP要喝西北风了,弄不好要赔钱的。

  ·使用PayPal的一些注意事项

  (1)私人账户(Personal Account)只可接受非信用卡支付,无手续费,但不能接受Creditcard Payment;只有高级/商业账户(Premier/Business Account)才可以接受credit card的付款,需要支付大约3%的手续费。

  (2)关于使用Paypal的经验和预防措施:

  很多朋友天天在问我Paypal的事情,今天有幸和Paypal专门管理安全事务的部门经理交谈了一个小时。提到了几个问题,希望大家知道。

  提问:中国客户如何开立美国帐户?

  回答:只能携带带有美国签证的护照,美国固定住所证明和安全保障号到各银行去开户。

  提问:中国人的帐户特别容易被冻结,这是什么原因?

  回答:首先冻结帐户是我们系统发现的,我们的系统对每笔交易都要复查是否符合规定而解冻帐户是人工的。

  提问:请您列举中国人被冻结是什么原因?

  回答:凡不符合规定的都会被冻结,不仅限制于中国人,只不过中国人的以下错误犯得最多:

  1,添加美国非本人银行帐户

  2,非拍卖和销售的转钱

  3,开有2个以上帐户的

  4,信息令人怀疑的

  5,有客户指控出售伪劣商品的

  6,不符合拍卖网站规定的商品

  7,异地交易的

  8,帐户共享的

  提问:我有个帐户被冻结了,是否可以再开一个重新做?

  回答:不行,我们的系统会在一段时间内识别,并冻结新帐户。

  提问:当出现问题是否都必须要打电话?

  回答:打电话不是最好的办法,最好的办法是传真材料和说明。

  ·PayPal使用建议

  很多关于paypal的基础知识就不在这一一做介绍了,当然若有不明白的用户还可以顶帖询问 在这我想就实战过程中一的一些小技巧在这跟大家做个分享:

  1,先要有这个意识:paypal其实没有想象中的那么可怕,想要拓展交易量,paypal是个很好的帮手,要学会驾驱她而不是逃避

  2,只要你愿意,可以开多个同一名字注册的paypal,没有问题.但是当你的帐户遇到危机的时候,相关的问题就有可能出现.试想paypal怎么会去limit一个没有任何危机的用户的帐户(不想赚钱啦),除非大型危机出现,则可能一并清查

  3,可以用你的国际信用卡去拓展任何一个注册地的paypal,包括美国,包括香港...,但是请注意,同上条一样:若大型危机出现,则可能一并清查

   4,如果你能保证你的paypal帐户良性经营,那么可以考虑办理一个香港银行帐户,从paypal里withdraw到香港的银行帐户,1000美金 以上没有费用,但是一律转成港币入帐,会有汇率损失,另外通过认证的香港paypal帐户将不存在每月withdraw的限制

  5,办理 美国的银行帐户进行转款也是一个不错的选择,但是大部分的美国银行不接受没有安全号的外国公民的申请.当然我前面说的是大部分,剩下的一部分是可以申请 的,但是他们都需要到银行去面签,难道我们飞到美国去?幸好有些银行在国内有分行或办事处可以解决一部分问题.问题又出现了,问:您为什么要申请美国银行 帐户?答:paypal转款.回复:NO.

  6,你经常会担心被买家refund吗?那么:1>请你尽量让您的买家到中国登入的商品号上拍下商品,而非欧美诸国.2>请你尽量不要把你的paypal帐户和ebay帐户做任何连接

  7,当买家投诉你卖非法商品怎么办?写邮件跟买家商定退款数量,实在不行就全额退款,在72小时内解决

  8,当paypal帐户由于买家投诉已被limit时,请马上与买家沟通商议退款,请求买家撤消投诉

  9,买家还没投诉你,但是感觉不妙时:马上撤离资金到别的帐户,转帐事由选择其他网站拍卖,编个拍卖号(限于认证用户及大资金纠纷,操作时请尽量选择在非常用机器上)

  10,如果每月交易额巨大,建议开通两个paypal帐户,每月交替使用,可减少问题在一个帐户上的堆积,有利于及时解决帐户的麻烦,而且在遇上帐户被limit时,至少有一半的资金可以动用来摆平你遇上的麻烦

  11,paypal有专门的中文客服(4-5人),可以直接写中文过去,没有问题,但是抬头记得写英文的,注明转交至中文客服

  12,在摆平paypal帐户的麻烦(老外)时,请随时记着自己是在和人打交道,虽然他们不是中国人

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  羊群的选择
  佚名

  上帝把两群羊放在草原上,一群在南,一群在北。上帝还给羊群找了两种天敌,一种是狮子,一种是狼。

   上帝对羊群说:"如果你们要狼,就给一只,任它随意咬你们。如果你们要狮子,就给两头,你们可以在两头狮子中任选一头,还可以随时更换。"南边那群羊 想,狮子比狼凶猛得多,还是要狼吧。于是,它们就要了一只狼。北边那群羊想,狮子虽然比狼凶猛得多,但我们有选择权,还是要狮子吧。于是,它们就要了两头 狮子。

  那只狼进了南边的羊群后,就开始吃羊。狼身体小,食量也小,一只羊够它吃几天了。这样羊群几天才被追杀一次。北边那群羊挑选了 一头狮子,另一头则留在上帝那里。这头狮子进入羊群后,也开始吃羊。狮子不但比狼凶猛,而且食量惊人,每天都要吃一只羊。这样羊群就天天都要被追杀,惊恐 万状。羊群赶紧请上帝换一头狮子。不料,上帝保管的那头狮子一直没有吃东西,正饥饿难耐,它扑进羊群,比前面那头狮子咬得更疯狂。羊群一天到晚只是逃命, 连草都快吃不成了。

  南边的羊群庆幸自己选对了天敌,又嘲笑北边的羊群没有眼光。北边的羊群非常后悔,向上帝大倒苦水,要求更换天敌,改要一只狼。上帝说:"天敌一旦确定,就不能更改,必须世代相随,你们唯一的权利是在两头狮子中选择。"

  北边的羊群只好把两头狮子不断更换。可两头狮子同样凶残,换哪一头都比南边的羊群悲惨得多,它们索性不换了,让一头狮子吃得膘肥体壮,另一头狮子则饿得精瘦。眼看那头瘦狮子快要饿死了,羊群才请上帝换一头。

   这头瘦狮子经过长时间的饥饿后,慢慢悟出了一个道理:自己虽然凶猛异常,一百只羊都不是对手,可是自己的命运是操纵在羊群手里的。羊群随时可以把自己送 回上帝那里,让自己饱受饥饿的煎熬,甚至有可能饿死。想通这个道理后,瘦狮子就对羊群特别客气,只吃死羊和病羊,凡是健康的羊它都不吃了。羊群喜出望外, 有几只小羊提议干脆固定要瘦狮子,不要那头肥狮子了。一只老公羊提醒说:"瘦狮子是怕我们送它回上帝那里挨饿,才对我们这么好。万一肥狮子饿死了,我们没 有了选择的余地,瘦狮子很快就会恢复凶残的本性。"羊群觉得老羊说得有理,为了不让另一头狮子饿死,它们赶紧把它换回来。

  原先膘肥体壮的那头狮子,已经饿得只剩下皮包骨头了,并且也懂得了自己的命运是操纵在羊群手里的道理。为了能在草原上待久一点,它竟百般讨好起羊群来。而那头被送交给上的狮子,则难过得流下了眼泪。

   北边的羊群在经历了重重磨难后,终于过上了自由自在的生活。南边的那群羊的处境却越来越悲惨了,那只狼因为没有竞争对手,羊群又无法更换它,它就胡作非 为,每天都要咬死几十只羊,这只狼早已不吃羊肉了,它只喝羊心里的血。它还不准羊叫,哪只叫就立刻咬死哪只。南边的羊群只能在心中哀叹:"早知道这样,还 不如要两头狮子。"
 
  外汇保证金交易的行业竞赛不断加速
2007.07.20 和讯网 作者:刘春涛 汪洋(编译)

  和讯外汇消息 据FX Week报道,又有两家银行与外汇交易商签订协议启动零售级别的保证金交易平台,这预示着在保证金交易的行业竞赛在加速。

  去年,德意志银行和荷兰银行在同外汇交易商FXCM和Oanda建立合作后,分别启动了各自的保证金交易平台DBFX与MarketIndex。巴克莱银行也与位于芝加哥的ADM投资者服务公司展开合作。

  一些机构也开始效仿。瑞士银行据说就在筹划于今年推出一个零售级别的保证金交易平台。消息人士称,瑞银最初的计划是与位于都柏林的技术提供商 Cognotec合作来开发自己的交易平台,但这种努力在年初以失败收场。瑞银放弃了最初的计划,转而采用了“荷兰银行与Oanda进行合作”的模式来开发交易平台。这种合作模式有其合理的地方,很多银行靠自身是无法完成一个零售交易平台的后端客户支持与市场推广的。

  客观事实是,市场上还有许多经验不那么丰富的交易者,这些人比银行的传统客户需要更多的技术支持。Saxo Bank在为零售客户提供算法交易工具时反复思考的问题之一就是,到底是将这套工具放在服务器端还是放在客户端。前者的好处是当客户需要Saxo Bank指导他们使用这套工具时,Saxo Bank可以直接访问在服务器上的算法工具;后者的好处是对客户的隐私保护显然更强一些。最终,Saxo Bank还是选择将工具放在服务器端,因为他们认为客户对技术支持的需求超过了对隐私保护的需求。

  瑞士银行瞄准的同样是那些半职业的外汇交易者,那么与一个精通客户服务的外汇交易商进行合作就是一个明智的选择。

  在某些方面,Oanda做得比较出色。它不仅提供38个常见货币对的交易,甚至还提供人民币兑美元和印度卢比兑美元的交易。由于中国和印度的经济增长迅猛,如果瑞银与Oanda展开合作,对瑞银来说可能是一笔极佳的买卖。

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Wednesday, August 29, 2007
  Three Gorges Dam Exacts Its Toll
2007-08-29, WSJ

THE MOST VAUNTED engineering marvel in China, the Three Gorges Dam project, is suffering from unforeseen problems including landslides and water pollution, raising new doubts about a project that has come to symbolize the country's effort to control its environment.

It was only a year ago that the massive Three Gorges Dam was completed, creating a reservoir on the Yangtze River some 640 kilometers long. Now, geologists say the trapped water's massive weight has begun to erode the Yangtze's steep shores at several spots. That, along with frequent fluctuations in water levels, has triggered a series of landslides and weakened the ground under places such as Miaohe, a village about 16 kilometers up the reservoir from the dam. Local officials worry that a whole mountainside here could collapse into the water, killing residents and threatening a vital shipping lane.

There are additional dangers. Chinese scientists say that as the dam blocks silt heading downstream, the Yangtze River estuary region, which includes Shanghai, is shrinking and salt water from the ocean is flowing further inland. A report this spring by the World Wildlife Federation said water flowing through the dam is now moving faster, damaging the downriver dikes that were built to prevent floods. Raw sewage and fertilizer runoff has fouled the reservoir, nourishing giant algae blooms and threatening downstream water supplies. Fluctuating reservoir levels have even been blamed for a bizarre plague of rats that farmers have been battling in central China's Hunan Province.

The emerging issues at Three Gorges illustrate this rapidly industrializing country's struggle against the constraints of nature, and how attempts to overcome them can worsen the problem. Three Gorges opens as dams are coming under new scrutiny abroad from ecologists, as well as from economists who say some of these costly projects can survive only with subsidies.

Questions about the Yangtze River's changed environment are taking on added urgency as China grapples with a mounting water shortage. Across the country, millions of tons of raw sewage, industrial waste and fertilizer runoff have turned lakes into algae-covered cesspools. According to official statistics, more than half of China's major waterways are so polluted that fish are dying or water is unsafe for drinking or irrigation. More than 300 million people -- almost one-quarter of the population -- lack access to clean drinking water, the government says.

Making things worse, more than one-third of the country's 85,000 or so reservoirs have 'serious' structural problems, according to the official Xinhua news agency. This spring, a deputy minister of water resources called China's reservoirs 'time bombs' that could threaten the lives and property of those downstream. In 1975, a dam collapse in Henan province killed tens of thousands or more, an incident that was covered up until recently.

At the center of the water debate is Three Gorges, China's largest and most visible reservoir. The country's news media are beginning to cover problems with the dam. The government hasn't spoken publicly about issues with the dam and reservoir, but it has quietly rolled out an early warning system for landslides and is supporting research to map at-risk regions. Officials are pouring money into water-treatment plants and reinforcing about 2,250 kilometers of riverbanks.

'We thought of all the possible issues,' says environmental scientist Weng Lida, the former head of the Yangtze River Water Resources Protection Commission, a government agency tasked with protecting the environment and water resources of the river basin. He is now secretary general of the Yangtze River Forum, a coalition of the Chinese government and nongovernmental organizations that share research on the region's environment. 'But the problems are all more serious than we expected.'

The government agency that oversees the dam, the Changjiang Water Resources Committee, declined requests for an interview.

The changes can be seen here in Miaohe, where villagers have grown oranges from gnarled trees and farmed the area's steeply terraced rice paddies for generations. Miaohe's 100 or so residents narrowly avoided the mass relocations that accompanied the dam's construction, when 1.3 million people moved from their homes to make way for the reservoir.

This spring, villagers noticed a 200-meter-long crack, barely a centimeter thick, zigzagging across their paddies. Not long afterward, dam officials lowered reservoir levels to prepare for the summer flooding season.

After early May rains raised reservoir levels again, there were four landslides in five days not far from Miaohe village. As the earth shifted, villagers say they heard cracking as the timbers in their houses began to split. The government told them to evacuate.

An hour away in the county seat, Zigui City, officials are facing a new wave of relocations. About 100,000 people in the county were moved to make way for the reservoir, and now local officials are concerned they'll have to relocate many more. 'The changes have come faster than our plans,' said Cui Shaofeng, an official from the Zigui County resettlement office.

The 6,400-kilometer-long Yangtze is the third-longest river in the world, racing down from Tibetan glaciers, slicing massive valleys through the middle of China and passing fertile plains before its brown waters meet the sea. Along the way, the river passes the Three Gorges, a series of canyons that for centuries plagued sailors with swift currents and hidden rocks. Floods were a constant threat, claiming about 300,000 victims, by some estimates, in the last century alone.

China's leaders long dreamed of damming the Yangtze, in part to harness its power, but primarily to prevent catastrophic flooding. Modern China's founding father, Sun Yat-sen, proposed a dam in 1919. Mao Zedong, who believed nature could be shaped to man's purpose, wrote a poem about turning the treacherous Three Gorges into a navigable lake.

From the late 1950s, the government approved and then delayed construction of a dam here several times, hobbled by technical challenges. By the late 1980s, China also faced mounting charges that a dam and reservoir would not only force farmers to relocate en masse to cities, but also destroy some of China's most precious archeological sites and temples.

In April 1989, the government responded to criticism by announcing that it would delay a decision for at least five more years. But opponents were silenced in the aftermath of the Tiananmen Square crackdown a few months later. In 1992 scientists and engineers completed a final environmental feasibility study, and later that year the dam project was put to a vote before the National People's Congress. It passed. But nearly one-third of China's usually docile legislature voted 'No' or abstained, an unusual show of dissent.

Construction officially began in 1994, but controversy continued. Responding to pressure from human-rights groups, the U.S. government and the World Bank pulled support from the project. In an open letter in 2000, leading engineers in China, including some who had worked on the feasibility study, protested a decision to fill the reservoir faster than originally planned to maximize profit.

The first trouble came in June 2003, two weeks after the Yangtze River was impounded and the reservoir began to fill. While water levels rose, passing 90 meters and approaching 135 meters, the valley's slopes started eroding under the pressure of the water.

On July 14, a mountain on a tributary of the Three Gorges gave way, shearing a tongue of land about a kilometer wide and long and more than 18 meters thick. Thirteen farmers were swept to their deaths in the mud and debris. The wedge hit the water, sending a two-story-tall wave crashing over 20 boats, drowning 11 fishermen. Officials blamed the landslide on heavy rainfall. Geologists says a sudden change in water levels loosened rocks along the riverbanks.

With a final cost of at least $22 billion, the 180-meter tall dam was finished in May 2006. Once it is fully operational later this year, it will contain 19 trillion liters of water, equivalent to one-fifth of the fresh water consumed each year in the U.S. It will produce more than 18,000 megawatts of electricity, 20 times more than the Hoover Dam.

Mr. Weng, the environmental scientist, believes the dam was necessary to stop floods. Now, his biggest worry is the worsening quality of the reservoir's water. Phosphorus and nitrogen levels from industrial and fertilizer runoff have risen 10 times above levels a decade ago, according to the WWF report, which he co-edited.

The Three Gorges reservoir is also filling with sewage. Wastewater discharge has soared in the Yangtze River basin, more than doubling from 2000 to 2005, the WWF report says. The basin is home to 160 million people, including 30 million in what is now by some measures the world's largest municipality, Chongqing, about 640 kilometers upstream from the dam. In the decade ending in 2005, the Yangtze basin economy grew 12.6% a year on average -- a percentage point faster than the rest of the nation -- as it has switched from agriculture to heavy industry.

Scientists and government officials say many sewage plants were built to process waste before it hits the reservoir, but that some aren't connected to city drains. Zhou Wei, vice director of the department of reservoir management at the government's Three Gorges Project Construction Committee, acknowledges that sewage levels in the reservoir appear to be increasing. He says the government has given additional funds to make sure plants are running full-time.

From the beginning, engineers were also concerned about sedimentation. The Yangtze carries 500 million metric tons of silt into the gorges each year. Without a way to release most of this mud, the reservoir would silt up and possibly collapse. Government engineers created 23 sluice gates at the bottom of the dam to release turbid water during flood season, and they estimate the system will keep the reservoir at roughly 90% or more of its capacity for nearly a century. Some critics believe sedimentation is growing at a faster rate, which could eventually make the dam unable to contain a flood crest.

Downstream, fluctuating sediment levels pose yet a different problem. In water with little sediment, sunlight reaches deeper and nourishes the photosynthetic algae, which also feeds on sewage and fertilizer runoff, Mr. Weng says.

Mr. Zhou, the reservoir management vice director, says the dam isn't responsible for the blooms. Algae had turned out to be less of a concern than the Three Gorges committee had expected, he says, with only minor blooms in Yangtze tributaries. He didn't address downstream algae growth.

There are also concerns about whether the dam will fulfill its primary flood-control function. Weeks of torrential downpours in July created one of the biggest surges on the upper Yangtze -- the biggest crest since 1998, when flooding on the undammed river killed thousands downstream. Officials announced on Aug. 1 that the crest passed through the dam without incident, crediting the structure for taming it for the river's lower reaches.

Critics say that while the dam can handle flood surges, it may contribute to downstream flooding for an unforeseen reason. Past the narrow gorges where it enters central China's broad plains, the river traditionally slowed, and in some places centuries of sedimentation raised the riverbed above the surrounding countryside and is held back by dikes, as in the city of New Orleans. Water released by the dam runs faster, the WWF says, because the dams traps most of the silt. Lightened of its muddy load, the water courses out with more force and speed and threatens to gouge out the dikes.

Geologists, meanwhile, are focusing on landslides. The Three Gorges were formed as the river gradually sliced through rock 300 million to 70 million years ago. The gorges have a base of limestone but are layered in places with sandstone, shale and mudstone -- softer materials that are more likely to collapse. As dam officials raise and lower water levels in anticipation of floods, the soaking and huge pressure changes leave banks weakened and in danger of collapse.

'Slope instability is responsible for the most widespread natural hazard in the Three Gorges,' a team of scientists at the Imperial College London wrote earlier this year in the 'Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology,' published by the Geological Society of London. They warned the problem is likely to get worse.

One of the authors looked at satellite readings of Zigui, Wushan and Badong counties, with a combined population of more than million people. In these areas, estimated geologist Ioannis Fourniadis of Imperial College London, 3% of slopes are actively falling and 7% are unstable for activities such as road-building. Another 15% were mostly stable. The rest were solid limestone, which he says pose extremely low risk.

Landslides can also trigger tsunamis, says Mr. Wang Fawu, a scientist at the Disaster Prevention Research Institute at Kyoto University, who has studied the gorges for decades. Narrow valleys could amplify a wave set off by falling rocks, sending a wall of water downriver. Such a flood occurred at northern Italy's Vaiont Dam in 1963, he says, killing 2,000 people.

A spokesman for China's Ministry of Land Resources blames this year's high incidence of landslides on heavy rainfalls since spring. He says the early-warning system has detected some major slides and that the government is training local people to recognize landslide warning signs.

A kilometer from Miaohe, where the gravel road that provides sole access to the village passes through a muddy tunnel, the villagers have set up temporary housing. Inside the tunnel, the farmers live in plastic lean-tos. Nearby the local government is creating a clearing where refugees will build their new homes. The site is an hour's walk from a simple river ferry.

The government is providing some money for new homes, but the villagers say it isn't enough. The farmers will be able to grow rice, oranges and tea here, but they complain that the land here isn't good for the crops. In a nod to the villagers' bleak future, the local government is providing families a dowry for their daughters, to encourage them to marry out.

'This all started happening right after they began damming the river,' says villager Han Qingxi, 52 years old, pausing for a moment from rebuilding his simple stone home. Nearby, giant backhoes level the mountainside. 'They say it's safer here,' he says.

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  三峡大坝之忧
2007年08月29日, WSJ

中国最引以为豪的建筑奇迹──三峡大坝项目正面临着山体滑坡和水污染等始料未及的问题,从而使这个代表着中国改造大自然成果的项目遭到新的质疑。

三峡大坝主体工程一年前才竣工,大坝上游640公里的长江水域成为一个大水库。而如今有地质学家称,三峡大坝拦截水量的庞大重力已开始在好几个地点侵蚀长江陡峭的河岸。再加上水位波动频繁,因而引发了一系列的滑坡灾害,也使得像庙河这些大坝附近的地区的地质结构被破坏。庙河是一个距离三峡大坝上游16公里的村庄。当地官员担心,一旦整个山坡塌入水中,附近的居民将因此丧命,同时还会威胁到至关重要的长江水道运输。

危险因素还不止这些。中国的科学家称,大坝阻挡了淤泥流向下游,使包括上海地区在内的长江入海口收缩,海洋的咸水正在倒灌入内陆。世界野生动物协会(World Wildlife Federation)今春公布的一份报告称,通过大坝的水流速度目前正在加快,对下游的防洪大堤造成破坏。未经处理的污水和化肥残留物被不断排入大坝水库,导致巨型水藻生长泛滥,并威胁到下游的水供应。而水库水位的波动也被认为是湖南省农民所遭遇奇特鼠灾的根源。

从三峡大坝暴露出来的问题可以看出,一方面,中国这个正迅速向工业化迈进的国家急于摆脱自然界的束缚,而另一方面,它为此努力的结果却是适得其反。三峡项目的启用正逢国外生态学界对兴建大坝的做法重新进行审视之时,经济学界也有相同的看法,他们认为此类耗资巨大的项目只有靠国家补贴才能生存下来。

由于中国面临日益严重的缺水问题,长江环境变化带来的问题正使得局势变得更紧迫。在全国各地,上百万吨未经处理的污水、工业废水和农药残留物将湖泊变成了藻类泛滥的污水池。据官方统计,中国半数以上的主要水道都受到污染,水中的鱼类正逐渐消亡,水也无法用于灌溉或是饮用。中国政府表示,现有超过3亿人(接近中国四分之一人口)缺乏干净的饮用水。

更糟糕的是,据新华社报导,中国8.5万座水库中超过三分之一存在“严重”的结构问题。今年春天,中国水利部一位副部长将水库比喻成会威胁到下游地区人民生命和财产的“定时炸弹”。1975年,中国河南某个水坝垮塌事故酿成万人以上丧生的惨剧,而这件事直到最近才被公诸于众。

中国水问题的中心话题正是三峡项目,它是中国最大也是最壮观的水库。中国的新闻媒体已开始对三峡大坝存在的问题进行报导。虽然政府方面一直未对大坝和水库的问题公开表态,却已悄悄地制定了一套塌方事故早期预警机制,并支持对划定高危地区的研究。政府还投入资金用于建设水处理厂、和加固约2,250公里的河堤。

中国负责保护长江环境和水资源的政府部门──长江流域水资源保护局(Yangtze River Water Resources Protection Commission)原局长、环境学家翁立达称,我们考虑了所有可能发生的状况,但所有的问题都比预想的严重。翁立达现担任长江论坛(Yangtze River Forum)秘书长,该组织是为政府与非政府组织共同研究长江流域环境问题而设立的。

负责管理三峡大坝项目的长江水利委员会(Changjiang Water Resources Committee)拒绝接受采访。

在庙河这个世代种植柑橘和梯田水稻的村庄,人们可以察觉到一些变化。在三峡大坝修建过程中,庙河的一百多名村民险些就和130万三峡移民大军一样,离开家园,搬迁到别处居住。

今年春天,村民们发现一条长200米宽1厘米的裂缝横贯稻田。而不久之后,大坝开始放水为夏季汛期作准备。

到了5月初,雨季来临使水库水位再次上升,距离庙河村不远处的地点在5天内发生了4次坍塌。村民反映说,他们可以听到房屋内木质结构由于地面移动而开裂的声音。政府也要求他们疏散。

在1小时路程外的秭归县新县城,政府官员们面临着新一轮的重新安置问题。为了水库建设需要,曾经有大约10万人被安置到新的地方居住,如今当地官员担心的是,还会有更多的人需要重新安置。秭归县三峡移民安置办公室的崔少峰(音)表示,情况的变化速度要快过我们的计划。

长江全长约6,400公里,是全球第三长的河流,它发源于青藏高原的冰川,穿过华中地区的崇山峻岭后奔流直下华东大平原并最终汇入大海。千百年来,长江河道三峡段重重峡谷的激流和暗礁一直是船家的恶梦。长江流域的洪水更是时常肆虐。有数据显示,仅上个世纪长江洪水就吞噬了约30万人的生命。

建设长江大坝是中国领导人长期以来的梦想,一方面是想利用其水利资源,但更主要的是为了防止洪灾。现代中国的奠基人孙中山早在1919年就曾设想过建造长江大坝。而坚信人定胜天的毛泽东更以“截断巫山云雨,高峡出平湖”的诗句来表达他的愿望。

从上世纪五十年代末期开始,中国曾经数次批准三峡大坝的建造,但因为存在技术难题,又数次被搁置。到了上世纪八十年代末,该计划仍然面临诸多质疑。持反对意见的人认为,建造大坝和水库不但会迫使大量农民向城市迁徙,还会毁灭当地一批中国最宝贵的历史遗迹和庙宇。

1989 年4月,中国政府对批评意见作出回应,宣布将把三峡大坝计划再推迟至少5年。可几个月后发生的天安门事件让反对声音沉寂了下去,于是在1992年科学家和工程师们完成了最终的环境可行性评估报告,同年晚些时候,该计划经全国人大审议并通过。但在那一次投票过程中,近三分之一的人大代表投了反对或弃权票。这对习惯于“俯首”的他们而言,实属罕见。

即使到了三峡项目1994年正式动工时,争议仍然存在。美国政府和世界银行(World Bank)迫于人权组织的压力也撤回了对该项目的支持。2000年,包括参加了三峡项目可行性研究的部分工程师在内的中国工程学界顶尖学者发表了一封公开信,抗议为追求利润最大化而以较原计划更快的速度为大坝蓄水。

问题最早于2003年6月出现,在三峡大坝下闸蓄水两周以后,当大坝水位突破90米后向135米逼近时,峡谷的边坡在水压的作用下开始被侵蚀。

7 月14日,一条长江支流发生特大泥石流灾害,一块长、宽均在1公里左右,而厚度为18米的山体落入江中,13名农民被吞没在泥石流中,而落入江中的石块激起两层楼高的大浪,摧毁了20余艘船舶,并导致11名渔民丧生。虽然官方称此次灾害乃暴雨所致,但地质学家称,是江水水位突然变化导致了河岸岩石松动。

180米高的三峡大坝于2006年5月竣工,耗费至少220亿美元。一旦该水库于今年晚些时候全面投入运转,所容纳的水量将达19万亿公升,相当于美国全年淡水消耗量的五分之一。三峡水电站每年将发电18,000兆瓦,是胡佛大坝(Hoover Dam)的20倍。

翁立达认为,为了防止洪灾,建设三峡大坝是必要的。而现在他最头疼的问题是水库水质的恶化。一份翁立达联合署名的世界野生动物协会报告称,工业废水和化肥残留物造成三峡水体中的氮和磷含量较10年前上升了10倍。

生活污水也被排入三峡水库。据世界野生动物协会的报告称,长江流域的污水排放量激增,2000至2005年间增长了一倍以上。而在这一地区生活着1.6亿人,其中包括位于三峡大坝上游640公里处全球最大都市──重庆的3,000万人。在1995至2005年间,长江流域的经济年均增长率为12.6%,超过全国平均水平,该地区正迅速从农业经济向重工业经济转型。

科学家和政府官员声称,该地区有许多污水处理厂,污水在排入水库前会先经过处理,但实际上一些污水处理厂并未与城市排污系统相连。三峡工程建设委员会(Three Gorges Project Construction Committee)水库管理部副主任周伟(音)承认,排入三峡水库的污水正在增加。他表示,政府已投入更多资金确保处理厂能24小时运转。

从一开始,泥沙淤积就是工程师们所担心的问题。长江每年要携带5亿立方米的泥沙进入三峡,但其中大部分都无法排出去,水库因此将出现淤塞,三峡大坝进而有可能垮塌。工程师在大坝底部设计了23道闸门用于在汛期冲走泥沙。据他们估计,该系统可保证三峡水库在今后一个世纪维持90%甚至更高的库容。不过有意见认为,泥沙淤积的速度在加快,并最终会导致大坝无法承受洪峰。

而在长江中、下游地区,泥沙淤积状况的变化则会产生另外的问题。随着水中沉 物的减少,阳光可以照到更深的水中,进而促进那些既能吸收污水和化肥残留物养分又具备光合作用功能的水藻旺盛生长。

而周伟认为,大坝并非导致水藻孳生的原因。水藻问题没有工程建设委员会预想的那么严重,只在长江的支流出现小规模的爆发。但他并没有对下游流域水藻增多作出解释。

三峡大坝是否能履行其调节洪水这项主要的功能也受到质疑。今年7月长江上游地区连续数周大雨,形成了自1998年来最大的一次洪水,98年那场大洪水导致长江中、下游地区数千人丧生,当时三峡大坝尚未建成。8月1日政府宣布洪峰安全通过三峡大坝,并将长江中、下游地区的安澜归功于大坝的防洪功能。

然而批评人士称,尽管大坝能起到调节洪水的作用,但却有可能因一个意想不到的原因酿成下游地区洪水泛滥。当江水冲过狭窄的坝口后,就进入了华中大平原地区。在没有三峡大坝的时代,长江流入该地区后水流流速通常会放慢,长年的泥沙淤积使这段长江成为“地上河”,要靠堤岸来约束,就像美国的新奥尔良。而世界野生动物协会称,由于大坝阻拦了大部分淤泥,使江水携带的泥沙量减少,导致江水流入华中大平原时流速加快、冲力加大,进而对这里地上河的堤岸造成威胁。

与此同时,滑坡也是地质学家们关注的问题。长江三峡是在距今3亿至7000万年前通过江水不断侵蚀岩石而形成的,虽然三峡大坝是建于石灰岩结构之上,但在这层石灰岩之下,却是砂岩、页岩和泥岩,这些都是质地较软并容易发生塌陷的结构。随着大坝管理部门按照洪水预报不断调整水位,江水渗入大坝地下岩层以及巨大的水压变化会削弱库区堤岸的强度,进而出现垮塌的危险。

伦敦帝国学院(Imperial College London)一个科学小组今年早些时候在《工程地质和水文地质学季刊》(Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology)发表文章称,边坡失稳是三峡地区最普遍自然灾害的成因所在。他们还警告说,情况可能会变得更糟。

该文的作者之一──伦敦帝国学院地质学家伊欧尼斯•弗尼阿迪斯(Ioannis Fourniadis)在观察过秭归、巫山和巴东县(这三个县的总人口超过百万)的卫星照片后发现,3%的边坡处于活跃的下滑状态,7%的边坡因为修路等活动而不稳定,另有15%基本稳定。其余边坡由坚固的石灰岩构成,发生滑坡的危险很低。

京都大学(Kyoto University)灾难预防研究所(Disaster Prevention Research Institute)数十年来研究峡谷地质的科学家汪发武表示,滑坡还可能引发水啸。狭窄的峡谷会起到放大岩石塌落所激起水浪的作用,引发下游巨浪。类似的灾难曾于1963年在意大利北部的维昂特水坝(Vaiont Dam)发生过,导致两千人丧生。

中国国土资源部(Ministry of Land Resources)某发言人将今年泥石流灾害高发的原因归咎于入春以后的大雨。他表示,早期预警机制已经探测到了一些重大泥石流灾害,政府正在教给当地人如何识别将发生滑坡、泥石流的征兆。

在离庙河村1公里的地方,通往这个村庄唯一的碎石路会经过一个泥泞的隧道。村民们已经暂时安置在这里,睡在塑料帐篷中。地方政府正在附近清理场地供村民们建造新房。新的村址距离同一条河有1小时步行路程。

政府为村民建新房提供了一些资金。但村民们觉得这还不够。他们可以在这里种植水稻、柑橘和茶叶,但他们抱怨这块土地不够好。为解决村民们未来窘迫的生活问题,当地政府将为庙河村的女性出嫁提供嫁妆,鼓励他们嫁到外地。

正在建造新屋的52岁村民韩庆喜(音)停下手中的活计说,“这一切都是在蓄水后不久才开始发生的。他们说这里会更安全。”而在不远处,巨大的推土机正在山腰上平整土地。

Shai Oster

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  Some of the tea in China

By Andrew Jefford
Published: July 28 2007, FT

China is an education. Learning about the country can seem as difficult as learning Chinese. The business visitor is said to be swiftly engulfed in the soupy embrace of China’s cities, with their mushrooming tower blocks, television-illuminated meals in private restaurant rooms and visits to karaoke bars. Those who classify themselves as tourists rather than travellers, meanwhile, will walk a famous wall and meet an army of model warriors, cruise a large river, eat some mystifying meals, go shopping and go home. Either way, the new, open China can sometimes seem as elusive as the old, forbidden one.

Unlocking its intricacies requires either the courage to sally out in the face of incomprehension (tough but rewarding – problem-solving, good humour and honesty are far more common in China than their opposites) or it requires a special interest – in birds, gardens, railway trains, art – which will lead you to stranger, more educative places than nightclubs and cruiseboats. Tea can do this, too. Grown throughout southern China and loved nationwide, it will not only draw you towards some of the country’s most remarkable landscapes but it also provides a glimpse, in the drinking, of a China far sweeter and more gracious than the nation’s brash public image.

My own Chinese education was defective in that I had assumed that the vast, sparely rugged landscapes of classical Chinese painting were more spiritual lesson than a faithful rendering of place. Those tiny figures moving, insect-like, between indolent river and abrupt peak were there to teach modesty, instil calm and underline impermanence, surely, rather than reflect reality. No landscape could open like that, could it? It could and it does. Travel in China’s tea country, and those same scenes will unfold before you, their pines seemingly placed at the summit of crags by some great artificer and their quiet valleys broken only by the soft race of falling water. Even the lenses of mist, mobile and intermittent, are accurate. Tea bushes thirst for more than twice London’s annual rainfall, and cloud cover combined with high humidity is perfect for keeping their vivid green leaves pliant.

A good bit of China is mountainous. Lowland areas are commandeered for the productive agriculture required to feed 1.3bn people, so that any crop that can migrate upwards will do so. Tea is ideal for this task – indeed you can create a small tea garden in many areas by doing no more than clearing the scrub to leave the wild, native bushes to enjoy the light and warmth on their own. “Garden” is exact: the small, shaped bushes grafted on to stone terraces and rock ledges look, at first sight, like effusions of the privet so cherished in suburban horticulture or like some vegetable sculptor’s audacious installation. In the Da Hong Pao (Great Red Cloak) valley of Wuyi Mountain in Fujian Province, this is an installation dating back to Tang times. At the same moment as the first Viking raiders were descending on Lindisfarne, in other words, the bamboos were being parted to make way for Camellia sinensis in this almost secret valley where water cuts its way through soaring planes of sandstone and conglomerate as sheerly as gin through ice.

In addition to Great Red Cloak, an oolong that is said to taste both of rocks and of sweet apples, Wuyi is also home to the greatest of all Lapsang Souchongs (or Zheng Shan Xiao Zhong, as it is known locally): that of Bohea Farm. This farm, where great smoked tea from wild bushes has been produced continuously since the 15th century, is sited at the village of Tongmu within the Long Chuan (Floating Dragon) gorge, in a protected zone of such environmental value that public access is restricted to the lower parts of the valley.

In springtime, smoke from logs of Taiwan red pine seeps from the wooden kiln roofs like the steam rising from a horse’s back after a canter in the rain; under the eaves, the rolled and withered leaves rest on giant bamboo trays while the fragrant, almost peat-like fumes riffle through them. The subtlety of Bohea Lapsang makes cheaper versions taste like burnt toast. Within China, Bohea is considered the origin of black tea. The fact that it was the source of the first tea imported to Britain meant that the name became, in the 17th century, a metonym for tea itself (the two words rhyme), and is thus used by Pope (in “The Rape of the Lock”) and Byron (in “Don Juan”). The great Scottish plant hunter Robert Fortune, who ended China’s tea monopoly by planting Darjeeling on behalf of the British East India Company, visited Bohea during a three-year voyage in the mid-19th century. “Never in my life,” he wrote later, “have I seen a view such as this, so grand, so sublime. High ranges of mountains were towering on my right and on my left, while before me as far as the eye could reach, the whole country seemed broken up into mountains and hills of all heights, with peaks of every form.”

Great Red Cloak valley and the Floating Dragon gorge are just two of the scenic attractions of Wuyi Mountain but there are at least a dozen more in the 1,000-square kilometre World Heritage site (China’s largest), many of them best seen from a seat on one of the languid raft trips that the Chinese describe in English, rather winningly, as “drifting”. Connoisseurs of geology may enjoy contrasting its red-rock danxia landforms with the better-known limestone karst outcrops of Guilin in Guangxi Province, home of the fishermen who prefer cormorants to rods or nets. Either landscape, though, will confirm the scroll painters’ accuracy.

Perhaps the easiest of all tea locations to visit is the city of Hangzhou in China’s largest tea-producing province, Zhejiang.

This is the source of the irresistible Long Jing (Dragon Well) green tea, the best of which smells and tastes like an essence of chlorophyll and creamed hazelnuts. Hangzhou is within easy reach of Shanghai. Indeed, in many ways, it would make a more attractive base for a Chinese initiation than Shanghai, thanks to its long history (it is one of China’s seven ancient capitals) and its watery attractions.

China’s Grand Canal flows through Hangzhou, snaking north all the way to Beijing, and two hours down the largely empty Hang-Quian Expressway is the 580 sq km Quindao (Thousand Island) Lake, surely the world’s prettiest reservoir and a Chinese centre for eco-tourism. Above all, though, it is Hangzhou’s own 6 sq km West Lake that lures visitors with its pavilions, temples, bamboo forest paths, tea plantations and ten signposted “scenes”, such as Lingering Snow on the Broken Bridge, Orioles Singing In The Willows or Evening Bell Ringing at Nanpinghill.

The quality of the tea served at the Dragon Well itself (called “Tea Enquiry at Dragon Well” on tourist maps) is outstanding and local tea mania is such that even the water used to make it is prized, fetched from a source two miles away called “To Dream of the Tiger-Pawing Spring”. Tea, as you see, draws out the poetry in the pragmatic Chinese. An evening in a Hangzhou tea house such as Charenchun or one of the three He Cha Guan (“Peace Houses”) proves, to any European who had previously considered moderate alcohol intake essential to a good night out, not merely educative but positively enlightening. The kettle stands nearby, bubbling gently; the glasses are constantly refilled; the table is kept supplied with watermelon and lychees, with pumpkin seeds, with dried fish strips, with lotus-paste cake, with sesame wafers.

Sipping great green tea is like sipping springtime itself – it brings an entirely sober elation, and the sense of cultured elegance is heightened further by the traditional furniture, decorations and costumes of those serving and (if you’re lucky) by the music, too. If you’re not and it’s gone schmaltzy, return to the lake, where traditional musicians play together on the warm evenings, for nothing but the fun of it, as the moon rises.

‘You point, they kill, you eat’

The greatest wall of China hides inside the human mouth: nothing is more insurmountable to travellers and residents alike than the hurdles of two vastly dissimilar languages. Dozens will call a cheery “Hello” to you as you walk past but any attempt at conversation in English swiftly dissolves into laughing incomprehension and even those who might be expected to have some English (such as hotel desk staff) are often still monoglot.

Guide books in English are rare and the heroic calamities of Chinglish will amuse even where they fail to inform. (Among my treasures is the airline towelette called Hygiene Wet Turban Needless Wash.)

Those Chinese who do have some English often find comprehension easier if words are written out carefully. Phrase books are very helpful on the same basis, in that the relevant Chinese characters can be shown. Not everything is difficult, though: dual language road signs are ubiquitous and China’s airports and internal flight network is hugely impressive, as are its free-flowing toll roads. City travel is easiest via China’s cheap taxis (whose drivers happily do not require tipping), though driving styles are cavalier.

Eating out in restaurants is low stress, too, since many of the largest work on the principle of a vast bank of fish tanks full of live fish and shellfish (as well as sea snakes), glass boxes full of doom-laden chickens and, on occasion, cages of miserable, jaw-clamped alligators, as well as simpler dishes whose raw ingredients are already assembled and then cling-filmed, or cold dim sum piled high ready for steaming. Menus are entirely unnecessary. You point; they kill; you eat.

On the tea trail

Andrew Jefford travelled to China as a guest of Virgin Atlantic, which flies daily from London to Shanghai, www.virgin-atlantic.com

Local tea travel for western tourists can be organised in Wuyi by Wuyi Mountain International Travel Agency, 3rd Floor, China Travel Building, Sangu Street, Wuyi, Fujian (tel: +86 599-5134 666); and in Hangzhou by Hangzhou Pacific Travel Company, Suite 705, Chengxin Building, 236 Jianguo North Road, Hangzhou (tel: +86 571-8729 6971) or Hangzhou Lai Lai Vacation Travel Agency, 86 Qingyin St, Hangzhou (tel: +86 571-8782 8533).

To taste the China teas mentioned in this article, contact Jing Tea, www.jingtea.com

Andrew Jefford is the author of ‘The New France’, a guide to contemporary French wine, and ‘Peat Smoke and Spirit’, about Islay’s distilleries

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  西方人眼中的中国茶文化
作者:英国《金融时报》安德鲁•杰弗德(Andrew Jefford)
2007年8月28日 星期二

中国是一门学问。了解这个国家似乎与学习中文同样困难。据说,商务游客很快被淹没在中国城市的海洋里,他们四周是迅速崛起的高楼大厦,他们会在私家餐馆包间里边看电视边享用晚餐,以及去卡拉OK唱歌。同时,这些将自己定义为观光客而非旅行者的人,会在闻名遐迩的长城上漫步,在宽阔的江河上航行,品尝一些不可思议的食物,逛商场,然后回家。不管怎样,开放的新中国有时候似乎与封闭的旧中国同样令人难以捉摸。

要解开其中的错综复杂,要么需要面对疑问时施放出勇气(虽然困难但是值得——解决问题、良好的幽默感和诚实比其反义词在中国更为常见),抑或要求你对鸟类、园艺、火车、艺术等具有特别的兴趣——这些事物将你带往比夜总会和游艇更为陌生、也更具有教育意义的地方。茶也能做到这点。茶生长在中国南方,深受全中国人的喜爱,它不仅会将你带到中国一些风景最为迤逦的地区,而且在品茗过程中,它还会带你透过中国不佳的公众形象,领略一个更美好和更高雅的中国。

我自己的中国学问并不完善,因为我曾以为,中国古典绘画中广袤平坦的风景,比忠实地描绘一个地方的手法更具精神层面的意义。那些如同昆虫般微小的人影在水流缓慢的江河与陡峭的山峰之间移动,教育人们虚怀若谷,灌输平静的心境,强调世事无常,而不是对现实的反映。没有其它哪处风景能够如此开阔,不是吗?游历中国这个茶的国度,那些相同的风景将一一呈现在你的面前,在一些伟大画师的笔下,松树生长在峭壁顶峰,而静谧的山谷中淌过涓涓的流水。就连对飘忽不定的雾霭的刻画都是那么生动。茶树对雨量的要求,是伦敦年降雨量的两倍以上,而多云的天气加上高湿度,构成了茶树盎然生长的完美环境。

中国大多数地区多山。低地被征用来从事生产性农业耕作,以养活中国13亿人口,因此可被移往高处的农作物都会被移向高处。茶非常适合这种方式——实际上你可以在许多地区开辟一小块茶园,所做的工作无非是清除杂草,让野生天然的茶树自己享受阳光和温暖的气候。“茶园”非常准确:修剪成形的小茶树被移植到阳台和花架上,乍看像是郊外园艺非常青睐的那种垂落的女贞灌木,或是像一些蔬菜雕刻家手下大胆的作品。在福建省武夷山的大红袍峡谷里,这种植物的历史可以追溯至唐朝。在首批维京海盗突袭林迪斯法恩岛(Lindisfarne)的同一时期,在这个流水淌过层层沙岩和砾岩的幽静山谷里,人们砍伐竹子,腾开地方种植茶树。

除了大红袍和据说同样混合着岩石与苹果香气的乌龙茶以外,武夷山还盛产正山小种红茶:产自武夷农场(Bohea Farm)。这里最上等焙制的茶叶取自野生茶树的农场。自15世纪以来,一直在生产茶叶,坐落在龙川大峡谷内的桐木村,这是一处具有环保价值的自然保护区,公众只能进入山谷中的低处。

春季,台湾红松木燃烧的烟雾从木制窑炉顶缭缭升起,就像马匹在雨中慢跑后背上升起的水汽一样;屋檐下,烘制枯萎卷起的茶叶放置在巨大的竹制托盘上,飘出与泥煤非常相似的炭香。正山小种的精妙,使得便宜的茶叶品尝起来如同烤焦的面包。在中国,武夷山被视为红茶的发源之地。事实上,这里出产了首批出口至英国的茶叶,意味着武夷山在17世纪时成为了茶叶的代名词,蒲柏(Pope)[在《夺发记》(The Rape of the Lock)里]和拜伦(Byron)[在《唐璜》(Don Juan)里]曾经用过这一称谓。伟大的苏格兰植物学家罗伯特•福钦(Robert Fortune)曾代表英国东印度公司(British East India Company)种植大吉岭茶,从而结束了中国茶叶的垄断局面,他在19世纪中叶游历3年,期间拜访了武夷山。他后来写道:“在我一生中,从未看过如此宏伟、如此壮观的景象。我的左右两侧耸立着高山,而我面前是一望无垠的平川,整个中国似乎被山脉分割开来。”

大红袍峡谷和龙川大峡谷只是武夷山的两大风景区,而在这片占地1000平方公里的世界遗址(中国最大风景区)内,至少还有数十个景区,如果坐在一条缓缓行驶的竹筏上,你可以从最好的角度欣赏这些风景——中国人使用“漂流”这个相当迷人的词来形容这种体验。地质专家可能喜欢将这里的红岩丹霞地貌与名气更大的广西省桂林石灰岩地形进行对比。而这两种景致都会淋漓尽致地展现在山水画家的笔下。广西是渔民之乡,渔民们喜欢用鸬鹚而非鱼杆或鱼网来捕鱼。

或许在所有茶乡中,中国浙江省的杭州市是交通最为便利的。

杭州是魅力无法抗拒的龙井绿茶的故乡。极品龙井茶闻香和品味像是叶绿素香精与奶油榛子的混合。杭州与上海颇近。实际上,由于杭州拥有悠久的历史(中国七大古都之一)和水资源名胜,因此对于初到中国的游客来说,杭州比上海的吸引力更大。

中国的大运河流经杭州,向北一直蜿蜒至北京,沿着空旷的杭千高速公路行驶两个小时,就可以抵达占地580平方公里的千岛湖。千岛湖的确可谓是世界上最美丽的水库,也是中国生态旅游中心。不过,杭州市内面积6平方公里的西湖,以其亭台寺院、竹林幽径、茶园以及断桥残雪、柳浪闻莺和南屏晚钟等西湖十大美景,吸引着慕名前来的游客们。

龙井供应的茶叶(旅游地图上称“龙井问茶”)质量上乘,当地茶迷对泡茶所用的水颇为讲究,要从两里以外的“虎跑梦泉”汲水。正如大家所见,茶能带出务实中国人性格中诗意的那一面。对于那些曾经认为适度饮酒能让人在外度过一个美好夜晚的欧洲人来说,在杭州的茶坊消磨一个晚上,例如“茶人居”或“和茶馆”三家店中的一家,不仅能学到许多茶的知识,还可以让人得到积极的启发。身边茶壶中的水缓缓地烧开;有人不时为你斟上水;桌上不停供应着西瓜和荔枝等水果,以及南瓜子、干鱼条、莲蓉蛋糕和芝麻饼干等小点。

品尝上等的绿茶,如同品味春天的感觉——它带给你完全放松的心情,而茶室里古典的家具、传统的装饰和服务员的服装,以及缭绕室内的音乐,使这种文雅精致的感觉更为强烈。如果你找不到这种感觉,可以回到西湖边,在怡人的夜晚,月亮升起的时候,传统音乐家们会聚在一起演奏,享受音乐。

中国旅行的食与行

中国最大的障碍在于语言:对游客和本地人来说,再没有比两种截然不同的语言更加难以逾越的障碍了。当你在路上走过时,许多人会欢快地以“Hello”向你打招呼,但你要想以英语与他们交谈时,他们很快会笑笑表示语言不通,即便是那些应该掌握一点英语的人(例如酒店柜台职员)通常也只会说中文。

英文的导游书非常罕见,四处泛滥的中式英语表达令人发笑,让人摸不着头脑。(我记得最清楚的事之一是,飞机上的湿纸巾被翻译成“Hygiene Wet Turban Needless Wash”。)

那些懂得一点英语的中国人通常会发现,如果把英语单词仔细写出来的话,沟通会更容易一些。因此,英语习惯用语书籍非常有用,因为书上会相应地标明中文。不过,并非事事都是那么困难:双语路标比比皆是,中国的机场和国内航线令人印象深刻,其通畅的收费公路亦是如此。在中国的城市,便宜的出租车是最便利的交通工具(令人高兴的是,中国的出租车司机不会向你索取小费),他们开车也很有风度。

外出去餐馆就餐也不用担心,因为许多大餐馆的经营之道是,在店里陈列装满新鲜鱼和贝类(以及海蛇)的巨大鱼缸,以及装着鸡的玻璃箱子,偶尔还有可怜的、嘴巴被夹住的鳄鱼的笼子,以及放着原材料、然后覆上食品薄膜的简单菜品样盘,或是堆得高高的、等待上笼蒸熟的冷糕点。因此点菜完全不需要菜单。你指向哪道菜,他们就为你做什么。

如果去茶乡旅行:

安德鲁•杰弗德乘坐维珍航空公司(Virgin Atlantic)的班机至中国,从伦敦至上海每天都有航班。www.virgin-atlantic.com

西 方游客若想游览中国茶乡,在武夷山可以由武夷山中国国际旅行社(Wuyi Mountain International Travel Agency)安排行程,地址:福建省武夷山国家旅游度假区三姑街国旅总社三楼(电话:+86 599-5134 666);在杭州可由杭州太平洋旅行有限公司(Hangzhou Pacific Travel Company)安排,地址:杭州市建国北路236号诚信大厦705室(电话:+86 571-8729 6971),或是杭州徕徕假日旅行社(Hangzhou Lai Lai Vacation Travel Agency),杭州清吟街86号(电话:+86 571-8782 8533)。

若想品茗文中所提的中国茶,请联系精茶公司,www.jingtea.com

安德鲁•杰弗德是《新法国:当代法国葡萄酒大全》和《泥炭烟和烈性酒:伊斯莱和它的威士忌》两本书的作者。

译者/何黎

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  Taiwan shopping for arms in US
By David Isenberg
Aug 21, 2007, Asia Times Online

WASHINGTON - The latest wrinkle in the long-running tale of US arms sales to Taiwan occurred last week when seven Taiwanese lawmakers from four different parties arrived in the United States on an 11-day visit to conduct a feasibility study for a submarine-procurement deal.

According to lawmaker Liao Wan-ju of the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), the purpose of the visit, which began last Tuesday, is to learn about the production capacity of US submarine manufacturers and Washington's attitude toward the deal.

Other members of the group are KMT legislators Shuai Hua-ming and Su Chi, Fu Kun-chi of the opposition People First Party, Ho Ming-hao of the opposition Taiwan Solidarity Union, and Chang Hua-kuan and Shen Fa-hui of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

Because of media criticism and partisan disputes in Taiwan over the trip, Vice Defense Minister Ko Cheng-heng canceled a plan to join the group, and the duration and itinerary of the journey were both curtailed. According to an original itinerary revealed by Taiwan's United Daily News in mid-July, the trip will take the lawmakers to the cities of Washington, Boston and Los Angeles and the state of Hawaii, and will include visits to defense contractors General Electric, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and Lockheed Martin.

And, in response to media criticism that the trip is a waste of taxpayers' money, the sources said the legislators will have to foot part of their travel expenses out of their own pockets.

The dispute stems from an accusation by Legislator Lin Yu-fang, who claimed that the Defense Ministry was trying to "buy" lawmakers' support for its plan to acquire eight US-built submarines by offering them free trips to the United States. Lin claimed that many of the lawmakers in the delegation do not even sit on the legislature's Committee for Defense Affairs, and that the organizers altered the itinerary to accommodate some lawmakers' requests for private trips during the visit.

The Ministry of National Defense has wanted the submarines since 2004, but a budget bill for the deal has been bogged down in the opposition-controlled legislature ever since.

This visit occurs about a week after the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of a possible Foreign Military Sale to Taiwan of 60 AGM-84L Harpoon Block II missiles as well as associated equipment and services. The total value, if all options are exercised, could be as high as US$125 million. The missile suffers from a subsonic speed and is prone to interception. But it can be launched from the air, from the sea, or from under the sea, and can hit land as well as sea targets. Taiwan has previously purchased both air- and surface-launched Harpoon missiles. The Harpoon Block IIs proposed for Taiwan are air-to-surface missiles launched from F-16 fighters.

By their range alone, the missiles could reach mainland Chinese coasts. But the fighters would have to take off successfully and reach the middle of Taiwan Strait before the missiles could be launched.

It is likely that the US Congress will approve the proposed sales, as they are relatively small compared with past sales to Taiwan. The proposed deal seems to follow a pattern in which the US would sell any weapon system that Taiwan is capable of developing by itself or procuring from a third party. The Harpoon Block II is the US equivalent to Taiwan's Hsiung Feng IIE. Hsiung Feng IIE missiles developed by Taiwan can only be launched from the island's IDF fighters, whereas its 100 F-16A/B fighters can only carry Taiwan's older Harpoon missiles.

But Taiwan may not consider the 60 Harpoon Block II missiles to be reason enough for them to give up its own project.

Ironically, the trip takes place a month after the Legislative Yuan broke a four-year deadlock over the purchase of a package of advanced US weapons. That package included 12 P-3C Orion anti-submarine-warfare aircraft, eight diesel-electric submarines, six Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile-defense batteries, as well as upgrades to older Patriot batteries already in Taiwan's possession. However, the Yuan only approved funds for the Orion aircraft and the Patriot upgrades. The sale will cost Taiwan NT$31.9 billion (US$970 million), far less than the approximately US$18.5 billion value of the total package.

In a further complication, according to a commentary by an analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington, DC, the US State Department is actively blocking the sale from going through to warn President Chen Shui-bian against holding a referendum on Taiwan's entry into the United Nations, one of Washington's leading commentators on Taiwanese affairs said.

Writing in the latest issue of Defense News, the analyst, John Tkacik, said the State Department had told the Pentagon that it opposed the sale of P-3C Orion submarine-hunter aircraft and advanced PAC-2 anti-ballistic-missile batteries, which the Legislative Yuan agreed to fund in June.


David Isenberg is a senior research analyst at the British American Security Information Council, a member of the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, a research fellow at the Independent Institute, and an adviser to the Straus Military Reform Project of the Center for Defense Information, Washington. These views are his own.
 
  U.S. will spend $1.7B on military robots
Published: Aug. 28, 2007 at 5:07 PM

WASHINGTON, Aug. 28 (UPI) -- The U.S. military will spend about $1.7 billion on ground-based robots in the next five years, according to figures reported by a defense analyst.

The figures, covering the 2006-12 period, come from the National Center for Defense Robotics, a congressionally funded consortium of 160 companies, and were reported by analyst David Isenberg in the Asia Times Tuesday.

Isenberg writes that the U.S. military has already deployed thousands of robot systems in Iraq and Afghanistan, including the 40-pound PackBot -- a miniature tank equipped with a video camera. Made by the iRobot Corp., which manufactures the Roomba, the home vacuum-cleaning robot, the PackBot “can climb stairs, penetrate caves, and peek around corners … so that troops can reconnoiter while avoiding the enemy as well as booby traps,” writes Isenberg.

He says that the military has now begun deploying armed remote-controlled robot systems, like the Special Weapons Observation Remote Reconnaissance Direct Action System. “The SWORDS is armed with an M249 rifle and is remotely controlled by a soldier,” writes Isenberg, noting, “There are no reports of the SWORDS being used in actual combat yet.”

Isenberg points out that, at present, international law forbids the automatic operation of armed robot systems: “Unmanned systems cannot fire their weapons without a human operator in the loop.”

But he predicts there will be pressure to change that as the capabilities of robot systems grow, and notes that, in 2002, a senior military lawyer proposed that robots be programmed to fire at weapons, rather than people, to get around the law.
 
  六年花17億美元:美國打造駐伊拉克機器人部隊
撰文 David Isenberg
2007/08/29, 週三, 亚洲时报

華盛頓 --- 戰爭每每考驗著人的許多方面:例如意志、決心、英雄主義、犧牲精神。同時,戰場也為一些看得見摸得著的東西,尤其是科學技術,提供了絕佳的試驗機會。從第一塊用作武器的石塊,到長矛短劍,再到火藥,化學、生物及核武器,每場戰爭都服務於軍事系統和武器的改良。

美國特別依賴其將科技轉化為軍事技術的能力。這不僅是因為美國的科技基礎處於世界領先水平,還因為這種能力能彌補因兵力少於對手造成的劣勢,尤其是在美蘇爭霸的冷戰時期。

如今在伊拉克也是這樣。前五角大樓掌門人拉姆斯菲爾德,曾提出了“軍力改造”計劃,其中一環是打造一支高科技數碼力量,科技因此在伊拉克戰場上扮演主角。伊戰甫一打響,各式各樣的美製軍備系統就陸續閃亮登場,有用於對付簡易爆炸裝置的設備、抵禦地雷伏擊車,有可發射導彈及衛星制導聯合攻擊炮的“捕食者”等無人駕駛飛機,還有作為美國陸軍快速戰鬥旅的核心戰鬥平臺的“斯瑞克”輕型反坦克導彈發射車。

不僅如此,根據由國會資助的美國“國防機器人技術中心”(National Center for Defense Robotics),美國政府計劃在2006-2012財年撥款17億美元,打造一支派往伊拉克執行任務的機器人部隊。

事實上,美軍已在伊拉克和阿富汗部署了數千個機器人系統。其中一種是IRobot公司生產、重19公斤的“PackBot”炸彈處理型機器人。 “PackBot”活像一個小型坦克,運用兩套履帶行動,能爬樓梯、鑽山洞,能穿過各種類型的崎嶇地形;還安裝了一個化學傳感器,讓部隊在進入建築物和洞穴之前,查看裏面是否有化學武器。

可對付簡易爆炸裝置的,還不止“PackBot”一個。2004年2月,五角大樓開始在伊拉克部署無人操作機器人,包括10個Matilda,22個 Packbot,58個Vanguard,43個Talon及20個微型Andros。當時,在美軍車隊行經的多條路線,簡易爆炸裝置層出不窮,令美軍聞之喪膽,還被稱為“頭號殺手”。這些機器人的任務是,一旦發現爆炸物,立即進行處理。它們還裝有“干擾器”,遇到威脅時能噴出一股氣流或水,將之清除。

將這些機器人投入實戰試驗,只是權宜之計,美軍還正式制定了計劃,購買一種便攜式機器人系統(Man Transportable Robotic Systems)。該系統主要由一個操作控制系統和一個遙控器裝置組成。系統部件小而輕,以便適合一個兩人小組可以攜帶著它,在半崎嶇的地形上行走500 米以上。該系統的主要功能是偵測,將來會被升級為可執行其它同爆炸軍火相關任務的機器人。

目前在伊拉克投入使用的機器人,還有美軍2004年首次部署的“龍行者”(Dragon Runner)。“龍行者”是個四輪裝置,長約30厘米,寬不到30厘米,高12.5厘米,重量僅為4公斤;該裝置遇到牆會翻側,即便從三層露高的窗戶被扔下也安然無恙,還會爬樓梯。發明人哈根介紹說:“龍行者是最輕的、最小的、最能適應高低不平環境的便攜式機器人系統,可以實現現今常用的遠程操作。”

《國防》雜誌本月刊有報道稱,美國陸軍已經悄悄在伊拉克部署了一種攜帶步槍的機器人。迄今為止,投入使用的SWORDS(Special Weapons Observation Remote Reconnaissance Direct Action System)已達到三種。SWORDS配備一把M249步槍,由一名士兵透過終端進行遙控。不過,目前還沒有關於此類系統用於實戰的報道。

這些系統都有一個共性:它們都不是真正意義上的自動系統,都得有個人躲起來進行遙控。不過,這種局面很快會結束。英國《衛報》8月8月的一篇文章稱,人類世界正向著類似電影《終極者》裏展現的場景發展:機器人掌握著生殺予奪的大權。美國國會已經制定了一個目標:力爭在2015年前,將三分之一的地面戰鬥車升級成無人操縱系統。

這番豪言壯語,卻帶來一系列複雜的問題。國際公約《武裝衝突法》規定,無人操縱系統不能在無人操縱的情況下發射武器,無人操縱的戰鬥車,明顯與這條公約相悖。然而,隨著配備武器的機器人不斷推陳出新並投入使用,要求提高機器人選擇及摧毀目標自動化程度的呼聲,也越來越高。

若有人覺得這種擔心是杞人憂天的話,最好看看2002年美軍提出的一個新的法律解釋。相關理論由海軍水面戰中心(Naval Surface Warfare Center)總工程師坎甯(John S Cannin)提出。他呼籲將所有武裝機械裝置的目標鎖定程序,設置為只瞄準武器、不瞄準手持武器的那個人。打個比方,一個自動裝置發現一名手持AK- 47的叛亂分子,那麼它可以自動發射武器摧毀那支AK-47;可如果那名叛亂分子因此喪生,這就被視為所謂的“附帶傷亡”。

本文作者David Isenberg是“英美安全信息委員會”(British American Security Information Council,BASIC)的高級分析員,“爭取現實主義的外交政策聯盟”(Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy)的成員,獨立研究院(Independent Institute)的研究員以及美國智庫防務信息研究中心(Center for Defense Information)斯特勞斯軍事改革項目(Straus Military Reform Project)的顧問。

編譯 寸草心
 
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
  Growing pains that afflict corporate adolescents
By Richard Evans
Tuesday, August 15, 2007, FT

Entrepreneurs have been responsible for much of the job creation in the US in the past 25 years. Yet nine out of 10 start-ups there fail in the first three years, says Doug Tatum, founder and chairman of Tatum LLC, a US financial and technology consultancy.

So why do so many start-ups fail? And how can entrepreneurs survive the years when a company is growing quickly but does not yet have the resources to make the leap to become abig, established brand?

Tatum focuses on three core failings of many small growth companies: a lack of cash, inappropriate management and an inflexible business model.

The author draws on personal experience and a variety of obscure case studies of US start-ups in sectors as diverse as technology, food service and musical instrument retailing. He points to recurring failings when entrepreneurs seek to move their companies through an "adolescent" phase - in which they earn $10m-$50m in annual sales. Most of these companies don't make it beyond adolescence. They either stall, fail or are sold to larger firms.

Perhaps the biggest barrier to growth is inability to raise capital. In their early days, start-ups are typically funded by an entrepreneur's own money, contributions from family and friends, credit card debt and bank lending tied to assets such as homes and land. Steering a start-up successfully through adolescence, however, requires a step change in financing. Infrastructure must be beefed up, external managers hired, and new products and services developed.

"At a certain point, the business needs more capital than the entrepreneur can repay," Tatum writes. "Unfortunately, most banks and private equity firms make it very difficult to provide capital to these firms."

The author cites the case of DocuSource, a Californian start- up providing computer-based document-management systems to businesses. After nine years, the company had grown to more than 100 employees and $21m in sales by 2001. Then it hit the wall. In spite of its impressive growth and record of stealing customers from larger competitors, DocuSource could not find a bank to back its expansion plans. Instead of being able to meet growing customer demand, it was forced to cut its salesforce. Revenues stalled.

"We were in a cash stranglehold with [our] current lender," says Les Walker, chief executive of DocuSource. "The banks tightened up their lending criteria." After failed attempts to raise $1m in subordinated debt, Mr Walker was left reluctantly considering selling the company.

The best way to attract capital, of course, is to reduce the risks that frighten banks and private equity firms. To do this entrepreneurs need to hand off functions such as operations and finance to professionals, even if it means demoting or firing colleagues who have been on board since the start.

Tatum says growth companies that cross that no man's land to become $1bn-a-year sales behemoths do so with a mixture of entrepreneurial vision and sound management. What is needed, at a bare minimum, is a "mess up" guy with great sales skills and an innate sense of customer needs, and a "clean up" person who knows how to control costs and prioritise. The founder is almost always the "mess up" guy; the "clean up" person is hired from outside.

Also vital to success is the ability of a growth company to shed its original business model once it has outgrown it. Almost all start-ups initially thrive on a "high performance/cheap labour" business model. The entrepreneur and team work absurdly long hours, pay themselves virtually nothing and yet offer superior products and services. Eventually, though, the business grows to a point where that model becomes untenable.

"Ultimately, you can't build an organisation on superhuman effort," Tatum says. "Sustainable profits must be built on normal people doing normal things for normal compensation." This requires standardised business procedures that can be easily taught to new arrivals. Above all, the business model must be "scalable" - adaptable to larger volumes, wider product ranges and greater geographical scope.

No Man's Land offers some useful rules to aspiring entrepreneurs, and benefits from Tatum's insights. But its folksy style - with jokes about raccoon hunting - may bemuse international readers. The last chapter contains a critique of US local and national government policy regarding growth companies that some could find provincial.

Not all the book's case studies are entirely convincing. They are let down by the author's tendency to jump from story to story without providing enough focus or detail. Perhaps theseare the inevitable traits of the serial entrepreneur.

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  初创企业为何成活率低?
英国《金融时报》撰稿人理查德•埃文斯(Richard Evans)
2007年8月28日 星期二

过去25年间,美国新增就业机会中有很大一部分要归功于创业者。但美国金融与科技咨询公司Tatum LLC的创始人兼董事长道格•泰特姆(Doug Tatum)在他的新书《无人区》(No Man's Land)中指出,90%的初创企业在成立三年内就倒闭了。

那么,为什么这么多初创公司会倒闭呢?当一家企业正迅速成长,但尚不具备一跃成为大型知名企业所需的资源时,创业者应当如何度过这段时期?

泰特姆将重点放在导致许多小型成长企业倒闭的三个核心因素上:现金匮乏、管理不善,以及商业模式不够灵活。

作者结合了亲身经历,并列举了大量美国初创企业案例研究,涉及领域颇为广泛,涵盖科技、食品服务和乐器零售等行业。他指出,当创业者试图引领他们的企业度过 “青春期”——年销售额在1000万美元至5000万美元之间——时,企业往往容易倒闭。多数企业都无法度过“青春期”。它们要么停滞不前或倒闭,要么出售给规模更大的公司。

或许企业成长面临的最大障碍就是无法筹集到资金。在成立初期,初创企业的资金通常来自创业者自有资金、家人和朋友捐助的资金、信用卡债务,以及房屋和土地等银行抵押贷款。然而,初创企业要想成功度过青春期,需要在融资方面做出重大转变。企业必须加强基础设施,聘用外部经理人,并开发出新的产品和服务。

泰特姆在书中写道:“企业发展到一定程度后,企业需要的资金超过了创业者的偿还能力。不幸的是,多数银行和私人股本公司向这些公司提供资本的门槛非常高。”

泰特姆引用了DocuSource的例子,这是一家加利福尼亚州的初创企业,为企业提供基于电脑的文件管理系统。到2001年,该公司已经成立了9年,雇员增加到逾1000人,年销售额达到2100万美元。当时公司遇到了增长瓶颈。尽管增长速度惊人,并从较大竞争对手手中挖走了一些客户,但 DocuSource无法找到一家为其扩张计划提供资金的银行。企业无法满足日益增长的客户需求,反而被迫削减了销售团队。公司营业收入陷入停滞。

“我们遭遇了贷款银行的资金限制,”DocuSource的首席执行官莱斯•沃克(Les Walker)表示,“银行收紧了放贷标准。”在试图通过发行次级债融资100万美元的努力失败后,沃克无奈地考虑卖掉公司。

吸引资金的最佳途径,当然是降低令银行和私人股本公司感到害怕的风险。为了做到这一点,创业者需要将运营和财务等职能放权给专业人士,即便这意味着将一开始就加入公司的同事降职或解雇。

泰特姆表示,要想跨过无人区、成为年销售额达10亿美元的大型企业,成长企业需要结合创业者的远见和健全的管理。企业至少需要一个拥有出色销售技巧和天生能够洞察客户需求意识的“捣乱”家伙,以及一个知道如何控制成本并分清轻重缓急的“收拾烂摊子”的人。创始人几乎总是那个爱“捣乱”的家伙,而“收拾烂摊子”的人则需要从外部聘请。

企业成功的另一个关键因素是,成长企业能够在企业发展到一定阶段时,摆脱已不适合自己的原有商业模式。几乎所有初创企业最初都是依靠“高业绩/低劳动力成本”的商业模式迅速发展起来的。在这一阶段,创业者及其团队的工作时间长得离谱,几乎不给自己发工资,但还提供优质的产品和服务。而最终,当企业发展到一定阶段时,这种模式就不适用了。

“说到底,你无法打造一个建立在超人能力上的公司,”泰特姆写道,“可持续的利润必须建立在做正常事、获得正常报酬的正常人身上。”这需要企业制定标准化的流程,使新员工可以轻松学会。最重要的是,这种业务模式必须 “可升级”——能够适应更大的业务量、更广的业务范围和地域。

《无人区》为志向远大的创业者提供了一些有益的规则,让他们受益于泰特姆的洞见。但其不拘一格的风格——书中提到了捉浣熊的笑话——或许会令海外读者一头雾水。在最后一章中,泰特姆对美国地方和联邦政府的高成长企业政策进行了批评,一些人可能会觉得有失偏颇。

本书中的案例研究并非全部都令人信服。作者习惯于从一个故事跳到另一个故事,对细节没有足够的关注。或许这些就是这位连环创业者不可避免的特点。

译者/朱冠华

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Saturday, August 25, 2007
  e-FX Awards 2007
http://www.fxweekefxawards.com/public/showPage.html?page=e-fx_awards_2007_winners07

* Best electronic broker

GFI

* Best trading technology vendor

Currenex

* Most innovative bank e-trading platform

Deutsche Bank

* e-FX initiative of the year - (bank)

Citi

* e-FX initiative of the year - (vendor)

FXMarketSpace

* Best post-trade services to clients

UBS

* Best vendor for post-trade services

DealHub

* Best professional e-trading venue

FXall

* Best algorithmic trading technology (bank)

Credit Suisse

* Best algorithmic trading technology (vendor)

FlexTrade

* Best retail platform

Saxo Bank

* Best liquidity outsourcing service

Deutsche Bank

* Achievement award

Lars Seier Christensen and Kim Fournais Saxo Bank

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  盛宝银行进军中国
盛宝银行进军中国
2007-08-20
消息来源 Saxo Bank A/S

丹麦哥本哈根8月20日电

盛宝银行 (Saxo Bank) 将在北京设立其新的代表处,打开中国市场,以便在全球发展最迅速的经济体之一开发和拓展其业务。

盛宝银行决定继续拓展亚太地区业务并在北京开设新代表处的初衷在于更加贴近客户、合作伙伴和流动量提供者。

盛宝银行全球业务发展部高级执行董事 Shailendra Robin Patel 表示:“在亚太地区,你会找到一个见多识广、技术上老练并且善于接受投资工具(包括但不限于:外汇、差价合约 (CFD) 和其它金融衍生品)信息的客户群。在线交易的未来发展趋势将取决于那些热衷多元化投资和乐于学习的有主见的投资者。在那样一种环境里,盛宝银行的价值主张尤其适合亚洲投资者。”

新办事处位于北京中心商业区,是盛宝银行向中国发起的首轮攻势。

Patel 补充说:“我们的代表处将让我们能够进入北京日益发展的金融界,同时也是我们为在全球发展最迅速的经济体之一开发和拓展业务而正式迈出的第一步。”

盛宝银行已经任命姚志超为首席代表 (CRO)。姚志超带来了其在中国最大证券公司中国银河证券股份有限公司的经验、对中国不断演变的金融和监管框架的深入了解以及在中国资本市场上广泛的人脉关系。

Patel 评论说:“我们的中国办事处将被用来促进积极互动,把盛宝银行的业务和服务带到日趋国际化的中国金融界。在姚志超的领导下,该办事处将负责建立一个强大的业务网络,为我们未来的在华发展计划提供支持。”

姚志超还将与盛宝银行的所有部门密切合作、相互协调,其中包括该公司设于新加坡的子公司 Saxo Capital Markets Pte. Ltd(由 SCM 首席执行官 Kevin Ashby 领导)。盛宝银行总部位于丹麦,在伦敦和西班牙也有运营办事处,并在俄罗斯圣彼得堡设有一个 IT 开发中心。

2007年2月9日,中国银监会正式批准盛宝银行在北京开设办事处。中国银监会还将监督盛宝银行在华开展的各项活动。

Saxo Bank A/S 简介

Saxo Bank A/S(盛宝银行)是专门在国际资本市场从事在线投资的现代投资银行。该银行使客户能够通过在线交易平台 SaxoTrader 进行外汇、股票、CFD 合约、期货、选择权和衍生产品交易和投资组合管理。由 Saxo Bank 自主开发的 SaxoTrader 通过 Saxo Bank 或其全球合作伙伴直接向投资者提供(Saxo Bank 的全球合作伙伴已经将 SaxoTrader 融入其自身的基础架构中)。Saxo Bank 的重点业务之一就是“白标”(white label) -- 为其他银行和经纪公司开发该在线交易平台的定制版本。Saxo Bank 拥有80多个“白标”合作伙伴并在177个国家拥有数千家客户。该银行的网站 http://www.saxobank.com 的日访问人数约为65,000。Saxo Bank 目前在50个不同国家拥有员工1000多名。该银行总部位于丹麦,在伦敦、西班牙和新加坡设有办事处,并在俄罗斯圣彼得堡设有 IT 开发中心。

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  银监会特批盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)入华
2007.03.24 财经时报
作者:邓妍

  在盛宝银行看来,它们可以迅速通过贴牌合作,帮助中国的商业银行进行外汇保证金交易,并且可以帮助中国的银行开拓外汇交易市场,确保中国外汇投资者的投资安全。

  短短一个月时间里,范林用于炒汇的20万美元即高台跳水,转眼间仅仅剩下3万多美元。

  范林一直觉得自己生活方式很前卫、也敢于冒险。因此,他没有像国内多数投资者投资于股票、基金等产品那样,而是在2006年末经朋友介绍,大胆地和一家中间经纪商签订了《投资理财协议》,将20万美元悉数投入汇市之中,以期博得比在国内更好的投资收益。

  然而,结局竟然是迅速巨亏,这让他疑窦丛生。

  调查情况让范林不寒而栗:自己得不到偿付。由于他所签约的那家中间经纪商属于非法机构,自己误打误撞的“地下炒汇”交易也就难获法律保护。

  《财经时报》近日在调查采访中注意到,类似范林这样的案例并不少,地下保证金交易在国内个人炒汇市场格局中的比重已经越来越大。

  为了遏制地下炒汇愈演愈烈,中国银监会有关官员告诉《财经时报》,他们近期已经特批丹麦盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)在北京成立代表处。这是中国首次批准的从事资本市场金融产品交易的银行,其在全球金融市场最知名的业务之一,正是外汇交易。

  两部门联合特批

  这位官员向记者透露,总部位于丹麦哥本哈根的盛宝银行成立于1992年。盛宝银行不是传统的商业银行,也不同于投资银行,它是一家主要致力于全球金融产品交易的服务银行。

  由于盛宝银行业务的特殊性,银监会投入了两个审批部门——银行监管三部与非银行金融机构监管部进行联合审批,这在银监会内部尚属首例。

  一般来说,银监会有两个部门负责审批外资银行的代表处,即银行监管三部和非银行金融机构监管部,但银行监管三部仅仅审批商业银行,非银行金融机构监管部仅审批非银行金融机构,比如货币经纪公司(盛宝银行的业务主要就是货币经纪)。

  因此,按常规推理,盛宝银行并不能得到批文。这是因为,银行监管三部不监管盛宝银行(盛宝银行没有商业银行业务),而非银行金融机构监管部又仅能审批非银行的金融机构(盛宝是一家银行,而不是非银行的金融机构)。

  《财经时报》获悉,由于上述特殊性存在,使得银监会内部反复对此进行商议,相关审批耗时也比一般的外资银行代表处要长许多。盛宝银行最终获批设立北京代表处,体现了银监会有意树立“引导金融市场发展、满足多元化投资需要”的监管思路。

  地下炒汇红火背后

  盛宝银行北京代表处首席代表姚志超向《财经时报》透露,盛宝银行是一家最早通过互联网进行金融产品交易的银行。在1996年,它们就已推出Saxo Trader——一个功能强大的金融产品交易平台,全球每一位交易者都可以通过这个交易平台,迅速进入外汇、证券、期货、基金、商品市场。

  目前,盛宝银行每天现汇交易超过100亿美元,平均每年的复合增长率超过60%。

  姚志超曾在中国最大的证券公司——中国银河证券有限责任公司任职,并在法国里昂高等商学院学习。在他看来,目前中国地下炒汇红火的原因之一是保证金交易资金效率高,利润大。

  尽管这种地下保证金交易不受中国法律保护,并屡有投资者上当事件发生,但是很多正规银行的个人远期外汇买卖业务试点,并没有有效吸引投资者回流。

  “从表面原因看,是正规银行交易的时效、点差、交易规则和国外有差距,其实,真正的原因是这些正规银行在技术和风险管理的综合实力方面,存在一定差距。”

  目前,在中国的外汇交易零售市场,国内商业银行普遍推出的是实盘外汇交易,其优势在于风险小,但这种交易资金效率利用比较低。

  对逐渐成熟的外汇交易者而言,他们更喜欢资金利用效率高、收益高的保证金外汇交易方式,也就是通常意义上的“以小博大、放大资金本金”的外汇交易。而中国的商业银行在这方面才刚刚试点起步,一时难以满足市场的需求。因此,大量的地下经纪公司、国外的外汇交易公司来中国进行非法的外汇保证金交易。

  独特的贴牌合作模式

  在姚志超看来:“盛宝银行进入中国市场后,可以迅速通过贴牌合作帮助中国的商业银行进行外汇保证金交易,并且可以帮助中国的银行开拓外汇交易市场,确保中国的外汇投资者的投资安全。”

  据《财经时报》调查,尽管盛宝银行根据中国的法律规定,从不接受大陆的外汇交易者在银行设立账户,但事实上,在中国的外汇交易者的心目中,盛宝银行有较高的声誉。

  一个典型的例证是:一些不法的国内外汇经纪商,经常打着盛宝银行的旗号进行市场宣传,有时候一天之内就有几百名客户、近千万美元的保证金愿意投资交易。

  记者注意到,与其他金融机构相比,具有较强的报价能力和风险控制能力是盛宝银行的特点。盛宝银行现在每年的坏账准备率不到其总资产的1%。

  “以外汇交易为例,盛宝银行可以聚合几家世界级银行的最优报价,然后将价格提供给它的客户。能够拿到好的报价,是因为盛宝银行与这些世界级银行是协助补充关系,而不是单纯的竞争关系。”

  在《财经时报》的进一步采访中,记者了解到,盛宝银行主要是通过贴牌合作来实现其市场的扩张,即免费向当地的持牌金融机构提供交易平台,以当地金融机构的品牌来设计该交易平台。盛宝银行提供全部的技术、风险控制和报价支持,以方便当地金融机构仅专注于市场的开拓。

  姚志超表示,贴牌合作充分体现了盛宝银行的商业模式及市场战略。

  “具体而言,贴牌合作伙伴主要包括两大要素。首先,盛宝银行为合作伙伴提供其内部开发的网上交易平台,但合作伙伴可完全以自己的品牌来命名。该平台具有诸多内容,一应俱全,合作伙伴可以根据自己的具体需求加以改进和增补。”

  这个过程只需要短短几周,贴牌合作伙伴就可以为客户提供在线、即时交易,而双方都不必为此再花任何费用。

  “目前,盛宝银行向全球170多个机构客户提供投资交易服务,其中50个为贴牌合作伙伴。”

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  China's gilded age coming to an end
Aug 21, 2007
By Kent Ewing,Asia Times Online

HONG KONG - China's gilded age of easy profits, cheap labor and unchecked environmental degradation may be coming to an end - at least for the tens of thousands of Hong Kong companies invested in the mainland's mammoth manufacturing industry.

Draconian new rules taking effect this week will force manufacturers to pay at least a 50% deposit on import levies, impose restrictions on exports, and also mandate the installation
of expensive anti-pollution technology.

The aim of the new regulations is clearly to reduce international tension over China's ballooning trade surplus, clean up the country's woefully deteriorating environment, and at the same time move its manufacturing industry up the value chain.

Hong Kong companies, which are invested in nearly half of the manufacturing done on the mainland, will be hit hardest by the changes, and they are mustering all of their resources to resist them. But the die is cast, and a new reality is about to begin.

In explaining the new rules, the Commerce Ministry's industry director, Wang Qinhua, said: "The new policy will add cost and affect the cash flow of exporters, especially those engaged in the labor-intensive part of the industry. Our calculation shows that the impact will force exporters to increase value to their products and upgrade their technology."

She added: "We hope these enterprises can follow the bigger situation and quicken their pace of adjusting their own product mix, increase their own intellectual-property rights, and develop the high end of their industry supply chain."

No doubt the central government hopes Wang's message was heard loud and clear in Washington, where Congress - up in arms over the slow appreciation of the Chinese currency, the yuan, and the ever-widening trade deficit with Beijing - has threatened to impose trade sanctions against China. But the new policy comes too suddenly for Hong Kong companies operating factories on the mainland. Crying foul, they are running to the Hong Kong government for help.

The regulations not only require manufacturers to install costly anti-pollution technology and add more than US$1 billion to the cost of their exports, but industry analysts say they could also tie up $2 billion to $3 billion in deposits that would otherwise be used for making more toys, electronics, clothing and other cheap goods.

Starting this Thursday, companies that import any of 1,853 different commodities - including plastics, metals and textiles - must pay at least a 50% deposit on their import taxes, and the number of commodities subject to this deposit is expected to expand to about 5,000 in the future.

The processing trade - in which Hong Kong companies play a particularly big role - will be hit the hardest, with analysts expecting a rise of 30% in export costs for such enterprises.

Of the more than 90,000 processing-trade firms operating on the mainland, China's National Bureau of Statistics reports, 57,500 are Hong Kong-invested. As these firms employ 9.6 million workers, the new policy will clearly involve layoffs. But Beijing is ready to accept that loss in exchange for moving up the value chain in manufacturing, cleaning up the environment, and reaching out for the international goodwill that would result from narrowing the politically sensitive trade surplus - which reached $112.53 billion in the first half of this year, up 84% from a year earlier.

The Federation of Hong Kong Industries says 45,000 Hong Kong-owned factories will be adversely affected by the changes. For 14,500 of them, according to a Hong Kong Trade and Development Council report, the damage will be serious, and 1,500 are expected to cease production altogether. As a result, the council projects that 375,000 mainland and 10,000 Hong Kong workers will lose their jobs.

Meanwhile, however, Hong Kong investors, who have played a huge role in the 40-fold boom in the Chinese economy over the last 25 years, are wondering what hit them.

"The whole situation is not very good," said Danny Lau, chairman of the Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprise Association, which has been lobbying the Hong Kong government for help. "We are expecting $3 billion will be held up [in deposits] as a result of the new regulations. This will be especially hard on SMEs [small and medium enterprises] with a low profit margin."

Lau's association is pressuring the Hong Kong government to persuade Beijing to delay the implementation of the new rules and stagger the introduction of the 1,853 commodities affected by them. The association would also like to see bank guarantees, currently only available through the state-owned Bank of China, extended to Hong Kong banks. "The Hong Kong government can also subsidize some manufacturers to relieve the burden," he said.

Hong Kong authorities are "working closely" with the central government to soften the blow to manufacturers, according to Andrew Leung, an industry representative on the city's Legislative Council. Leung estimates that 10-15% of Hong Kong-invested factories may eventually have to close if the new policy is not changed. In the end, however, he says the writing is on the wall: "This is a strong signal from the central government that China is no longer a place for making cheap, low-end products. Hong Kong companies should look at how to upgrade into higher-value goods."

Tellingly, the state-run China Daily ran a story last week focusing on two Hong Kong companies with factories on the mainland, one that is likely to close down because of the new regulations and one that has admirably planned for this eventuality by moving up the value chain.

The report chronicles the travails of Victor Ho, who took over ownership of a toy factory in Guangdong province from his father seven years ago but is now considering closing shop and letting his 150 employees go.

"It was easy for my father to make money for some time," Ho is quoted as saying. "Time was when one looked at a person enviously if he said he was working for a Hong Kong company." But that time has passed, Ho laments.

By contrast, the article also presents the case of Billabong Enterprises Co and quotes its prescient managing director, C B Chiu, who founded the company in the 1950s and "years ago" transformed it from a low-end manufacturer of gloves into a high-end "environmental-goods maker".

"It is an unwritten rule of business that one should always keep an eye on long-term development," Chiu reportedly said.

If all this sounds a bit contrived - well, it probably is. Beijing has never been blamed for excessive subtlety - or even accuracy - in making a point. But the point nevertheless stands.

In the 1950s, the low-end manufacturing industry was centered in Hong Kong. It has since moved to the southern and eastern coastal areas of the mainland, most notably the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong and the nearby provinces of Fujian and Jiangsu. And now, with the environment in this region disintegrating under the onslaught of largely unregulated manufacturers, the central government has signaled that it is time to move on.

Indeed, manufacturers who opt to relocate their factories to central or western provinces or autonomous regions - such as Shanxi, Xinjiang and Gansu - are exempted from the new rules. This inducement fits into a broader plan to close the enormous income gap that exists between the wealthy coastal cities of the south and east and much of the rest of the country. For low-end manufacturers like the China Daily's archetypal Ho, however, the cost of relocation will be too much to bear.

With labor costs also rising as the mainland prepares to enter its third consecutive decade of breakneck economic growth, Hong Kong entrepreneurs with the capital to branch out may consider not only China's hinterlands but also other low-cost, loosely regulated countries, such as Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. As it turns out, the gilded age may be a movable feast-cum-environmental disaster.


Kent Ewing is a teacher and writer at Hong Kong International School. He can be reached at kewing@hkis.edu.hk.
 
  中國外貿新政打擊 港商“流金歲月”走到盡頭
撰文 Kent Ewing
2007/08/24, 週五,亚洲时报

香港 -- 勞動力成本低廉、以犧牲環境為代價換取經濟利益的一本萬利發展模式,在中國或許快走到盡頭了。至少對於數以萬計在大陸設廠的港商而言,“流金歲月”很快就會結束了。

中國本周開始實施新措施,加緊限制勞動密集型產業的投資,製造商必須要先預付至少50%的進口稅押金,以及必須採用價格高昂的環保技術。新措施顯然是為了緩和因中國的外貿順差持續擴大、所導致的國際貿易摩擦,以及阻止環境進一步惡化,並提升國內的製造業在價值鏈上的位置。

大陸整個製造業所吸納的投資,近半來自香港企業,新措施帶來的衝擊自然對港企最沉重。雖然這些港企不甘坐以待斃,不過營商環境惡化已成定局,沒人能改變事實。

在解釋北京的外貿新政時,商務部產業司司長王琴華說,“新政策將增加成本,影響出口商的現金流量,尤其是行業中那些從事勞動密集型的部分。我們計算過,這些影響將迫使出口商提高產品的附加值,提升自己的技術”。

王琴華指出,政策調整對於企業來說,既是壓力也是動力,她希望相關企業借著大環境的改變,也儘快改變自己的產品結構,向更高技術含量、更大增值環節和自主品牌方向發展,向產業鏈的高端環節發展。

毫無疑問,中央政府希望王琴華的話,能清晰無誤地傳到華盛頓的耳朵裏。須知,美國會一眾議員長久以來批評人民幣升值步伐過慢,又指北京故意操縱匯率,導致美中貿易逆差不斷擴大云云,甚至揚言要對中國掄起貿易制裁大棒。

不過,新措施實在來得太突然,令在大陸投資的港企瘁不及防。無奈之下,他們正紛紛要求特區政府伸出援手。

根據新規定,廠商要引入價格高昂的環保技術,這將使出口產品成本增加至少10億美元。此外,產業分析人士還預計,預付進口稅押金的規定,會令廠商的流動資金減少20至30億美元,而這部分資金本來可用於生產玩具、電子、服裝等廉價產品。

從8月23日開始,公司但凡進口1800多種貨品,包括塑料、金屬和紡織品等貨物,必須要先預付至少50%的進口稅押金。未來此類貨品將增至約5000種。

港企扮演舉足輕重角色的加工貿易,將成為受新規定衝擊的重災區。分子人士估計,港企的出口成本將上升三成之多。

中國國家統計局的資料顯示,大陸有9萬多家主要從事加工貿易的企業,當中港企占了半壁江山,為57,500家。受僱於這些企業的工人多達960萬,相信部分人將因為新措施而失業。

不過,北京對此已有心理準備。為了使製造業向產業鏈的高端環節發展,淨化環境,同時通過收窄外貿順差來向國際社會示好,北京似乎認為,以失業為代價換取這些目標值得一搏。今年上半年,中國的外貿盈餘飆升至1125億美元,比前一年高出84%。

香港工業總會指出,共有4.5萬家港資工廠受是次政策調整的影響。而根據香港貿易發展局的一份報告,當中14,500家廠商將遭受嚴重打擊,1,500家甚至遭遇停產關門的厄運;37.5萬大陸工人和1萬名香港工人,會因此飯碗不保。

中國經濟的規模能在短短25年內,取得增容40倍的彪炳成績,香港投資者功不可沒。如今,他們都為前景感到茫然。

“香港中小型企業聯合會”一直敦促特區政府伸出援手,該會主席劉達邦表示,“整體形勢不太好,受新規定影響,估計將有30億美元(進口稅押金)不能動。中小企業的邊際利潤本來就較微薄,對它們而言,情況尤其不妙。”

香港中小型企業聯合會正在向政府施壓,要求它說服北京押後實施外貿新政、對涉及的1853種商品分階段收保證金,以及授權香港的銀行,為出口商向海關開具台賬保證金擔保函(目前僅有中國銀行獲此授權)。劉達邦還建議,香港政府可以補貼形式,為製造業廠商減輕負擔。

代表工業界利益的香港立法會議員梁君彥透露,特區政府正同北京“緊密合作”,試圖減少新政對港企的衝擊。梁君彥預計,若北京拒絕收回成命,約10-15% 的港資工廠會被迫關門大吉。但無論如何,他認為北京已通過外貿新政,發出了一個強烈的信號:中國不再是一個生產廉價低端產品的地方,港企應當想想如何提升產品的附加值了。

官媒《中國日報》上周刊出了一個故事,講述兩家在大陸設廠的港企面,對外貿新政的截然不同的態度:一個打算認命,關門走人;另一個則不向命運低頭,做好在價值鏈上往上爬的準備。

故事回顧了港商Victor Ho的營商歷程。Victor七年前從父親手中接過了廣東一家玩具廠的管理大權。七年後的今天,他卻在考慮解散150名僱員,關門大吉。“在我父親管理的年代,賺錢十分容易。那時,人人都會對在港資企業工作的人投以豔羨目光。”

與之形成強烈對比的,是故事的另一個主人公,“群邦實業有限公司‘董事總經理趙振邦。趙振邦於上1950年代創立群邦實業,並在“好幾年前”將這個生產手套的低端企業,成功轉型為高端的“環保產品廠商”。 趙振邦對記者說:“商業界有個不成文的規則──深謀遠慮,高瞻遠矚。”

1950年代,香江是低端製造業中心。後來,廠商陸續遷移到大陸東部和南部沿海地區,珠三角及近海的福建和江蘇尤受青睞。如今,隨著東南沿海地區的環境,因一些廠商違規操作而日益惡化,中央政府已經發出要大力治理環境的訊號。

其實,廠商也並非無路可走,他們可以選擇把工廠,再遷至中部或西部地區,例如新疆、甘肅等自治地區,以規避外貿新政帶來的衝擊。外貿新政之所以給廠商提供這個選擇,想必是為了縮小沿海和內陸省市存在的巨大收入差距。可是,對於上面提到的那個港商Victor Ho的低端製造企業而言,搬遷費用是個大問題。

隨著大陸經濟列車駛進第三個高速前行的十年,內地的勞動力成本也水漲船高。在這種大背景下,有意擴大業務規模的港企有兩條路走:要麼把手觸伸到內陸,要麼走出國門,投資泰國、越南、印尼、菲律賓等成本低廉、監管不嚴的國家。

編譯 寸草心
 
  周末書評:印度闖出美中之外的第三條路
撰文 Scott B MacDonald
2007/08/24, 週五,亚洲时报

Image書名:《印度星球》(Planet India: How the Fastest-Growing Democracy Is Transforming America and the World)
作者:凱姆達爾(Misa Kamdar)


派 爾(Kenneth B. Pyle)所著的《日本崛起》(Japan Rising: The Resurgence of Japanese Power and Purpose)一書,有一個有趣的結論:日本是個適應性的大國,“遵從現有國際體系的機會較高”。言下之意是,它不可能成為真正的霸權國家,因為它不具 備美法中俄等國革命所體現的、對其他國家有吸引力的普世價值觀。

正如亞洲時報在線撰稿人Sreeram Chaulia在有關《日本崛起》的書評中指出,日本“似乎註定是一個謹小慎微的適應性大國,它從國際體系中得到的多,付出的少”。然而,崛起中的印度並非如此。

凱姆達爾(Mira Kamdar) 是“世界政策研究所”高級研究員,兼美國“亞洲協會”(Asian Society)的副院士。她認為,印度在經濟方面正在崛起,融入全球化進程,並成為不斷改變的國際體系中日益重要的玩家。在這些方面,印度的民主資本主 義實驗,對於鄰國尤其是那些欠發達國家的吸引力與日俱增。

她在《印度星球》一書中強調,印度的軟實力(其民主制度的魅力)和不斷取得的經濟成就,使這個國家成為既不同於專制中國、也不同於富裕得多(但更揮霍、更 貪圖享樂)的美國的另一模式。她說:“從全球反恐、到尋找危險流行病的治療方法,從解決能源危機、到避免全球暖化的最糟結果出現,從重新平衡全球嚴重的不 均衡現象、到促進必要的革新以創造就業機會和改善生活──印度如今已成為一個重要的一員。全球都在進行具有深遠意義的重新調整,在此過程中,亞洲的崛起是 最重要的,而印度對這個新世界至關重要。”

凱姆達爾解釋寫《印度星球》的原因說,“因為我認為,印度從來沒有像現在這樣,對一個陷入危機的世界影響重大”。西方操控的舊世界秩序正在崩潰,這點從嚴 峻的環境問題、瘋狂爭奪自然資源、全球恐怖主義、極端不平等以及艾滋病等疾病肆虐可見一斑。雖然西方的生活水平高,對世界其它國家人仍很有吸引力,但是西 方社會昂貴的生活方式,是不可能輕易被複製的。因此,這就需要另一個模式,而印度能填補這一空缺。

凱姆達爾說,“印度的目標大得令人摒息:從一個擁有10多億人口的發展中國家,變成一個發達國家,到2020年躍身成為全球的領導者,而且還是要在資源短缺、環境不斷惡化的時代裏,實現這一目標。”

雖然《印度星球》大致上是一本宣揚“印度第一”的書,但它也明確指出了該國存在的所有問題:腐敗猖獗、基礎設施嚴重落後、社會經濟發展不均衡、水資源缺乏、疾病肆虐以及污染嚴重。

例如,凱姆達爾提到:“印度有可能成為全球最致命的流行病滋生的溫床。它也迅速成為非傳染性流行病之都,糖尿病和心臟病的發病率,遠遠高出全球的平均水 平。”她還考慮到以下問題,例如婦女、貧困階層以及其他人處境堪憂,以及印度教徒與穆斯林之間的緊張關係,所有這些都對“印度星球”構成威脅。

儘管面臨一大堆問題,但印度非常渴望改革。從1990年代初起,改革就促進了該國經濟的發展,擺脫了社會主義的發展模式。印度提供了一種替代發展模式,介 乎富有但遙不可及的西方模式,與政治上專制但經濟發展日益加快的中國之間。印度必須給全球問題,例如疾病,提供更低成本的解決辦法。

凱姆達爾寫道:“不過,或許印度也最有希望找到解決這些疾病以及其它危害全球數十億人口災害的辦法。高成本的養生法,只能幫助少數受感染的人。如果印度可 以找到低成本、便利的療法,例如口服胰島素療法,這樣病人就不用打針了,數百萬人的生活將得到改善。”除了尋求更低成本的疾病療法,還可以把這種方法應用 到其它領域,包括尋找替代能源。

凱姆達爾寫了一本有趣的、討論時局問題的書,大多數美國人都應該拜讀這本書,尤其當下正值印度日益成為美國生活的一部分(這表現在生活和工作在美國的印度 人、出現在美國市場的印度產品、外包給德裏或孟買的業務與日俱增)。她指出,生活在美國的印度人,是“在美國最富有、受教育最好的外來群體之一”。

這些成功日益使印度和美國走得更近,在美國的印度人希望回報祖國。這肯定是美印關係在克林頓和布什當政期間大為改善的一個重要原因。美印雙方基於與日俱增的共同戰略問題,包括激進伊斯蘭和中國崛起所構成的威脅,越走越近。

凱姆達爾認為,就夥伴關係而言,印度的崛起也給美國提供了歷史機遇:印度和美國無疑是當今全球最大的兩國民主國家,現在它們真正有機會,互相提醒各自建國時期的基本道德準則、拋棄瘋狂的軍國主義、並挽救我們的環境。

愈來愈多人著書描寫印度的崛起。印度人口龐大、而且不斷增加,加之全球競爭日趨激烈、資源有限,因此新德里必須全速前進。印度的偉大實驗,是21世紀初最重要的事件之一。顯然,《印度星球》一書是印度相關文獻中,較值得注意的新亮點之一,筆者在此強烈推薦。

譯者:楊柳

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  周未書評:印度前情報分析主管稱三十年前曾阻中國“兼併緬北”
撰文 Sreeram Chaulia
2007/08/24, 週五, 亚洲时报

Image書名:《R&AW的特工們》(The Kaoboys of R&AW: Down Memory Lane)
作者:拉曼(B Raman)


保密和情報機構,可以是同義詞。一般公眾鮮有機會一窺特工的秘密世界,以及他們在國家秘密機構鐵幕背後的英勇事蹟。

拉曼(B Raman)是印度對外情報機構“R&AW”( 研究分析局)的反恐科前負責人,通過其《R&AW的特工們》一書,讓公眾一窺這個“黑盒子”的內幕。他一方面通過此書,懷念印度情報界默默無聞的 戰士,同時也思索了這個傳奇組織的問題。(編注:拉曼在書名中用上Kaoboy一字,據印度傳媒解釋,這字眼意指那些忠心耿耿的間諜特工;這字眼也可能來 自R&AW首任局長Kao的名字。)

拉曼在開篇就把矛頭對準了美國。他在R&AW 工作的26年期間,美國國務院一直是他痛恨的對象。例如,美國國務院曾把新德里與它分享的錫克裔動亂情報,轉交給巴基斯坦。又例如,在1992年,由於印 度拒絕美國偵察機在空中拍攝印度與中國的邊界,美國國務院就威脅對印實施經濟制裁。

在1994年,美國又警告新德里說,如果R&AW不中止在巴基斯坦的秘密任務,美國將“採取對印度不利的行動”。

拉曼也敘述了在1971年“東巴基斯坦危機”加劇期間,時任印度總理甘地夫人(Indira Gandhi,1966年至1980年連續四屆當選印度總理),決定讓剛成立兩年半的R&AW出動一事。(編注:1971年印巴第三次戰後,其後 東巴基斯坦獨立,成為孟加拉國。)

他指出,當年R&AW負責訓練孟加拉的遊擊隊,組織一場心理戰打擊巴基斯坦的統治者。甘地夫人幾乎每天都能竊聽到巴基斯坦高級將領討論局勢演變的電話交談。她每做一項決定,都會咨詢R&AW首腦卡奧(R N Kao)。

在1969-1971年間,R&AW破壞了獲中國支持的 “納加族”(Naga)和“米佐族”(Mizo)叛亂組織,在緬甸和東孟加拉的交通設施、庇護所和基礎設施。

當時美國的尼克松政府發起與巴國聯合反擊印度,支持印度旁遮普邦錫克人的分離主義運動。時任美國國家安全顧問基辛格,還在媒體和公共論壇大談印度侵犯錫克裔的人權。美國對錫克裔尋求建立卡利斯坦(Khalistan)國的叛亂活動,一直持續支持到1984年。

不過,R&AW與美國中情局之間並非只是簡單的敵對關係。它們曾聯手阻止了中國可能兼併緬甸北部的行動。於1975-77年擔任美國中情局局長的 老布什,更因而成為卡奧的私交。後來在老布什擔任副總統時,卡奧成功說服他,切斷對卡利斯坦分離分子的援助。拉曼對此評論說:“兩個情報機構之間,善意和 惡意如影隨形。”(頁42)

在1970年代中期,卡奧意識到R&AW迫切需要加強能力,搜集美國在印度洋活動的情報。他匆忙與法國和伊朗情報機構建立聯繫,合作監視美國的行動。鑒於當時的伊朗巴列維王朝,是美國最親密的盟友之一,此舉的確令人感到驚奇。

在拉曼看來,R&AW當前搜集美國情報的能力仍然很弱。他批評當前的辛格(Manmohan Singh)政府“看來沒有給予足夠的關注”。

R&AW於1968年創立後不久,卡奧就與以色列情報機構“摩薩德”(Mossad)建立秘密聯繫,“學習它的反恐技巧”(頁127)。在 1980年代初,巴基斯坦的確擔心印度和以色列情報機構合作,摧毀它在卡胡塔(Kahuta)的濃縮鈾工廠。12年來,摩薩德官員一直以南美商人的身份, 駐紮在新德里。

拉曼提到的一個有趣事態發展是,在約旦塔拉爾親王的牽線下,印度的R&AW和巴基斯坦“三軍情報局”(Inter Services Intelligence)的首腦,曾於1980年後期多次秘密會晤。三軍情報局否認窩藏卡利斯坦恐怖分子,但在公共媒體視線之外,它的確向印度 R&AW移交了一些從印度軍隊叛逃的錫克人。

相對於聯合反恐機制,拉曼更支持這種交流方式,因為雙方的特工頭子,可在沒有正式議程的情況下定期會晤,“對照一下各自就共同利益發展的看法”(頁234)。

1975年之後,印度情報人員在東部邊境的表現下滑,拉曼將部分責任歸咎於局內負責孟加拉事務的分支,認為問題在於他們有欠客觀。

此外,政客操縱的政治迫害、裙帶關係、歧視性的內部國安檢查、高級和低級官員之間的隔閡、放縱、以及工會的興起,所有這些因素,都對R&AW造成 了很大傷害。在招募問題上,還有跨部門之間的資歷安排問題上,摩擦持續存在,“即使是機關建立39年後的今天,這仍妨礙團隊精神的形成”(頁133)。

R&AW科技部門的桑塔納姆(K Santanam),是第一個評估到巴基斯坦秘密建立濃縮鈾廠的人。他有系統地監視巴基斯坦核計劃的發展。拉曼披露說,當時的印度總理德賽(1977- 79在任)輕率地告訴巴基斯坦總統哈克(Zia ul-Haq):他知道伊斯蘭堡的核計劃。

R&AW曾訓練過很多非洲獨立國家的情報官員,又協助過南非和納米比亞的反對種族隔離鬥爭。一些退休的R&AW官員,會被派駐到非洲國家 的情報訓練機構。令拉曼感到非常惋惜的是,由於後來疏忽,R&AW將先前在非洲贏得的善意和影響力,拱手讓給了中國。

另一方面,當年R&AW有關卡利斯坦恐怖分子的情報,有一部分證明是錯誤的。拉曼對此堅持說,“跨邊境行動缺乏協調,通常導致誤差以及誤導性的和 警告性的報道,這一直是我們情報界的痛處。”1984年甘地夫人遇刺身亡,就跟“印度情報局”(Intelligence Bureau)高級官員玩忽職守和監督鬆懈有關,卡奧對此一直耿耿於懷。

同樣,拉曼曾提醒有關方面,要當心來自斯里蘭卡的泰米爾極端分子,刺殺拉吉夫.甘地(甘地夫人之子,1984至1989年任總理、1991 年遇刺身亡)。然而,他的警告受到情報界的質疑,結果產生了致命的後果。“在德里,大家都相信他們(斯里蘭卡泰米爾人)不會傷害拉吉夫,因為他和他的母 親,比任何一位印度領導人對他們的幫助都多。”(頁236)

拉曼直言不諱地指出,印度安全機構“幾乎不承認它們的缺陷,這就是為什麼悲劇會接連發生”。情報局對R&AW的嫉妒、戒心和偏見,導致印度情報界支離破碎。而且,兩個平行存在的情報機關,對印度納稅人來說也是不必要的負擔。

拉曼用了很多篇幅,說明1980年代R&AW在反間諜工作方面的弱點。法國情報機構滲入了印度總理辦公室,美國中情局又被發現在R&AW 的欽奈辦公室搜集情報。R&AW特工辛格(Rabinder Singh)被揭發原來為美國中情局工作了多年,最近叛逃到美國。這些都顯示了印度情報界的可悲之處。去年甚至有報道說,美國中情局已滲透進了印度國家安 全委員會秘書處。拉曼悲觀地預測說,也許有一天,“這個國家所有敏感機構,都會在情報合作的名義下受到嚴重滲透。”(頁255)

拉曼又指出,由於“不必要地沉迷於西歐的語言”,R&AW特工在語言方面存在缺陷,往往不利他們在印度周邊國家的活動(頁130)。英國知名安全機構“軍情五處”(MI5)“掌握旁遮普語的專家,要比R&AW和印度情報局的總和還多”(頁152)。

拉曼還發現,前任總理瓦傑帕伊(Atal Bihair Vajpayee)政府和現任辛格政府下的國家安全管理,結構存在問題:R&AW的首腦被降格為國家安全顧問的下屬,甚少能與總理直接溝通。

拉曼承認,R&AW官員曾向拉吉夫“獻計”,以掩蓋有爭議的“博福斯軍購回扣醜聞”(編注:瑞典軍火商博福斯透過行賄獲得訂單)。博福斯醜聞“暴 露了我們情報和調查機構最惡劣的一些特徵”。然而,正是在拉吉夫執政期間,R&AW、特別是其負責巴基斯坦事務的部門,重新獲得了強大的秘密活動 能力。

也是在拉吉夫時代,R&AW在中印關係正常化的過程中,發揮了重要的幕後作用,兩國情報首腦之間建立了熱線。中印兩國政治領導人利用這條熱線,可 繞過正常的外交管道互通消息。在1991年第一次海灣戰爭期間,中國情報部門就曾提出向印度供應石油,以助印度應付任何可能出現的石油短缺。

不過,拉曼總體上認為,R&AW在分析有關中國的情報方面仍然做得不夠。

在冷戰結束後,R&AW利用與俄羅斯情報界的密切關係,獲得了保證:無論莫斯科的政治氣候怎樣變化,都不會放棄對印度的友好立場。

1987年當印控克什米爾開始叛亂時,R&AW堵塞了巴基斯坦的廣播和電訊渠道,並反過來在巴控克什米爾宣傳印度的立場。它還在印度的穆斯林社區 以及歐洲的南亞穆斯林移民社區當中,煽動反巴基斯坦的情緒。它與巴基斯坦政圈和民間社會中“親印度”的人士,建立強有力的聯繫網絡。它還開始與那些不滿巴 國情報人員滲透阿富汗的游擊指揮官建立聯繫。

1993年孟買發生連環爆炸,是印度首次發生導致大量人員傷亡的恐怖襲擊,R&AW綜合各種可靠的證據後,認為是巴基斯坦三軍情報局直接插手了恐 怖襲擊行動。當時卡奧曾憤怒地表示,儘管證據確鑿,“但美國決不會因巴基斯坦對印度所做的事,而採取行動反對巴基斯坦。”拉曼補上一句說,“即使在今天, 跟過去還是一樣的。”(頁277)

譯者:晏陽

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Friday, August 24, 2007
  Abe praises Indians who backed Japan in WWII
by Elizabeth Roche Thu Aug 23, 2007

KOLKATA, India (AFP) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe voiced admiration Thursday for two controversial Indians who stood up to colonial ruler Britain during World War II and sided with Tokyo.

Abe visited the eastern city of Kolkata to meet relatives of nationalist Subhash Chandra Bose, who advocated violent resistance, and Radhabinod Pal, the sole judge who dissented at the Allied tribunal that condemned to death war-time Japanese leaders.

"Many Japanese have been moved deeply by such persons of strong will and action of the independence of India like Subhash Chandra Bose," Abe said in a speech at the opening of the Indo-Japan Cultural Centre.

"Even to this day, many Japanese revere Radhabinod Pal."

The premier, wrapping up a three-day official visit to India, met the son of the judge Prashanto Pal, 81.

Abe has dismissed suggestions back home that meeting Pal's son would anger other Asian nations resentful over Japan's wartime atrocities.

In a dissenting opinion, Pal questioned the legitimacy of the tribunal, sealing a friendship between Pal and Abe's grandfather Nobusuke Kishi, who was charged but never tried as a war criminal.

Prashanto Pal told AFP he was "very, very happy to see" Abe.

"I feel proud of the fact that my father is still remembered for his contribution that was only correct and just. How can you blame only one side for war crimes and not the others?"

Abe's stop in Kolkata came at the end of a high-profile visit during which India and Japan vowed to seal an economic partnership deal by December.

The premier who later left for Kuala Lumpur held talks with West Bengal state's Marxist chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and toured a museum dedicated to Bose.

After WWII broke out, Bose escaped his British watchers, sought help from Nazi Germany and later went to Tokyo, where he organised an army.

Abe spent time looking at black-and-white photos of Bose as a young boy, his May 1942 meeting with Adolf Hitler in Berlin and a picture of his German wife, Emilie Schenkl, holding their baby girl.

He was shown around the museum by Krishna Bose, a niece of the nationalist leader by marriage and her son, Sugata, a Harvard University history professor.

"I was very impressed to see so many memorabilia" related to Bose "who had a strong bond with Japan," Abe told reporters.

"I expressed strong determination to strengthen our bilateral relations that Subhash Chandra Bose had wanted."

Other pictures capture Bose's 90-day journey from Germany to Japan aboard a submarine between February and May 1943. And the last known photo of Bose shows him stepping off a plane in Saigon on August 17, 1945, a day before his widely disputed death in an aircrash in Taipei.

Abe "was very interested to see all the pictures, he was able to identify many of the Japanese in them. He was particularly thrilled to see the submarine photo and to see Bose with the Japanese crew," Sugata Bose told AFP.

The exhibits include swords, coats, caps and footwear as well as furniture and scores of books owned by Bose until he fled Kolkata in 1941.

"This is the first visit by a Japanese prime minister to Kolkata and to the museum so it is an occasion for a double celebration," said 76-year-old Krishna who heads a trust that has preserved the three-storey residence as a museum.

Sugata Bose said she had presented Abe with a DVD containing the nationalist leader's speeches on Asian solidarity and a picture that showed him on his way to see the Japanese emperor in Tokyo in 1943.

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  Abe praises dissenting war crimes judge

By Jo Johnson in New Delhi and David Pilling in Tokyo
Published: August 23 2007, FT

Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, risked irritating Beijing and Seoul during a state visit to India on Thursday by paying homage to a Bengali judge revered by Japanese militarists for denouncing the legitimacy of the 1946-1948 Tokyo war crimes trials.

In a gesture to nationalists disappointed by his decision not to visit the Yasukuni shrine in Tokyo last week to commemorate the end of the second world war, Mr Abe held a 20-minute meeting with the son of Justice Radhabinod Pal in Kolkata.

Aides described it as a “courtesy visit”.

Justice Pal, who died in 1967, was the only judge at the war crimes trial to rule that all the defendants – including Hideki Tojo, the wartime prime minister – were innocent.

His dissenting judgment has been seized on by those who say that Japan was subjected to “victors’ justice” and that its leaders were condemned under international laws applied retroactively.

Vivek Pinto, a visiting research fellow at Tokyo’s International Christian University, said: “Pal has become a rightwing darling.” The veneration of Pal, the subject of a tribute at the Yasukuni shrine, “shows the right is determined to show that the [Tokyo] trial was a big hoax, which in a sense it was”.

Mr Abe, who has pledged to restore Japanese pride and release it from what he calls the “postwar regime”, has had to put aside some of his convictions in the interests of better relations with China. He has not visited Yasukuni, where a number of Class A war criminals are honoured but compromised by sending an expensive potted plant to the shrine.

More than one commentator has likened his meeting with Pal’s son to a proxy visit to Yasukuni aimed at salving his conscience and mollifying some of his more nationalistic supporters.

South Korea’s biggest newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, criticised the meeting, saying in an editorial before it took place: “He will travel all the way to India to embrace the descendants of a judge hailed as a hero by Japanese militarists for claiming innocence for Class A war criminals.”

The judge has become a potent, if ambiguous, symbol of Indo-Japanese understanding. In 2005, Manmohan Singh, the Indian prime minister, told a New Delhi banquet in honour of the last visiting Japanese premier, Junichiro Koizumi, that Pal’s dissenting judgment would “always symbolise the affection and regard our people have for your country”.

In a separate foray into sensitive wartime areas, which still dominate Asian diplomacy, Mr Abe met descendants of Subhas Chandra Bose, an Indian nationalist who sided with imperial Japan during the second world war. Japan’s right says Bose confirms its view that, in the 1930s and 1940s, the country was waging a war of liberation from colonialism – not a war of aggression.

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  安倍晋三对持日本战犯无罪论者表示敬意
英国《金融时报》乔•约翰逊(Jo Johnson)新德里、戴维•皮林(David Pilling)东京报道
2007年8月24日 星期五

日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)在对印度进行国事访问期间,冒着激怒中国和韩国政府的风险,昨日向印度法官拉达比诺德•帕尔(Radhabinod Pal)表示了敬意。帕尔因抨击1946年至1948年对日本战犯的审判而受到日本军国主义者的崇敬。

安倍晋三上周决定不参拜靖国神社,以纪念二战结束,令日本的很多民族主义分子大为失望。为了安抚这些人,安倍晋三在加尔各答和帕尔的儿子进行了20分钟的会晤。

帕尔死于1967年,在对二战战犯的审判中,他是唯一一名裁定全部被告无罪的法官。这些被告中包括日本战时首相东条英机。

译者/李碧波

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Thursday, August 23, 2007
  外汇市场的最新发展以及外汇保证金交易的运作模式
作者:投机之王 2006-9-20

 外汇市场的特点

  外汇市场是全球最大的金融市场,涵盖的交易品种包括现货外汇交易(又称即期外汇交易)、远期外汇交易、掉期外汇交易、外汇期货交易、外汇期权交易等等。单日交易额平均高达1.9万亿美元,其中OTC衍生品交易为1.29万亿美元。(以上数据根据国际清算银行2004年调查报告)

  外汇交易主要采用两种方式:一种是交易所方式。这种方式有固定的交易场所,如德国、法国、荷兰等国的外汇交易所,以及进行外汇期货交易的芝加哥商品交易所;这些交易所有固定的营业时间和营业场所。另外一种是OTC方式。这种方式是24小时运转,没有具体的交易场所,交易双方靠电话或网络等通讯设备达成交易。

  OTC方式是外汇市场的主要组织形式。它不同于传统意义上的市场,并不具有一个中心交易场所,绝大部分的交易是通过电话或网络进行;这种没有统一场地的外汇交易市场被称之为“有市无场”。全球外汇市场每天近两万亿美元的交易额,就是在这种既没有中央清算系统的监督,也没有政府的管制下完成清算和转移的。

  电子交易的兴起

  早期的OTC交易主要通过电传、电报和电话等通讯方式来实现。随着计算机技术和网络技术的发展,电子交易开始兴起,并引发了外汇交易机制和外汇交易技术的变革。

  过去只对银行间交易者开放的实时报价现在通过网络唾手可得,外汇定价变得更加透明,信息的传达更有效率。同时,电子交易也改变了外汇市场的特性和交易者行为,信息的光速传输使得羊群效应在国际范围内瞬间传递,加剧了外汇市场的日间波动。

  电子交易主要有两种模式,一种是服务于机构客户的ECN(electronic communications network)模式;另一种是服务于零售客户的询价(Dealer)和单一做市商(Market maker)模式。我们平常接触到的外汇保证金经纪商通常采用后一种交易方式。

  面向银行和机构投资者的ECN

  ECN是一个电子交易网络,交易者的单子都直接且匿名的挂在这个网络上,买卖价格由参与这个ECN上的所有交易者竞价产生,所以ECN上的价格是真实的市场价格。ECN的运营者一般不参与交易而只收取交易佣金,所以他们会尽可能提供给客户更好的服务。

  EBS和Reuters是专门针对顶尖银行的专有ECN系统。他们基本上占据了国际外汇市场现货交易的近70%的市场份额。EBS主要为美元、欧元、日元和瑞士法郎的交易提供电子交易平台,而Reuters则主要是为英镑与其它货币之间的交易提供服务。

  随着互联网技术的发展,服务于小型银行、大型投资机构、对冲基金的ECN开始出现,包括CurreneX、Fxall、FX Connect、Hotspot等。他们各有业务的侧重点,例如FX Connect主要面向基金经理,而Currenex则全力开发公司客户。

  ECN未来的发展方向将是融合交易所模式和OTC模式的优点,提供给客户更好的交易体验。Reuters和CME准备要建立的 FXMarketSpace正是代表了OTC外汇交易的趋势,FXMarketSpace号称是全球第一个中心结算的外汇市场;通过中心结算,将降低交易的信用门槛和非市场风险,使得更多的中小投资者也能参与其中。

  外汇保证金交易的模式:询价、单一做市商

  虽然ECN模式较为公平透明,但是这些“真正的”外汇市场门槛较高,通常只向大交易量和高资产净值的金融机构开放,所以个人投资者主要透过外汇保证金或国内实盘进行外汇现货交易。由于国内实盘有点差高、单向交易、无资金杠杆等缺点,有经验的外汇投资者通常会选择外汇保证金交易。目前,在国内比较知名的美国外汇保证金经纪商包括 FXCM、嘉盛、FXSOL、IFX、CMS等。

  与ECN的竞价模式不同,外汇保证金交易通常是采用询价和单一做市商模式。个人投资者面对单一的对家进行询价和交易,报价的公正性依赖于经纪商的诚信。经纪商本身就是做市商,他们一般先汇总和过滤银行或ECN的价格,然后加上自己的利润再报价给客户,因此客户实际上是在与作市商做交易(在ECN上是与匿名的交易者进行交易)。客户看到及交易的并不是市场的真实价格,并且交易的执行价格由外汇经纪商决定,所以成交价格常常有利于经纪商也就不足为奇了。

  客户的单子进入做市商的系统后,首先进行多头头寸和空头头寸之间的内部对冲,然后将余下的净头寸拿到他们所依附的银行或者ECN上对冲,也可以部分对冲或者干脆不对冲,这就属于对赌的范畴。对赌就是这些做市商们不把所有的净头寸拿到ECN 或银行去对冲。比如,某家外汇经纪商收到客户1000手(外汇交易单位,通常是指10万单位基本货币)买入欧元/美元的指令和800手卖出欧元/美元的指令,那么内部对冲后余下200手欧元/美元的净多头头寸,但是该公司愿意承担了这部分头寸的市场波动风险,并没有把这200手欧元/美元净多头头寸放到银行或ECN上做一反向交易,这就叫做和客户“对赌”。在美国相关法律法规中并没有硬性规定如何对冲风险,这完全取决于交易商自己的风险控制策略。

  如果客户的单子能及时完全对冲掉,那么做市商几乎不用承担额外的市场风险,获得的收益比较稳定。但是现实中做市商一般或多或少的会进行对赌,这加大了其本身的风险。

这种对冲/对赌模式的存在,意味着在某些特定时段(比如美国重大数据公布的时候,或者市场价格剧烈波动的时候),你可能经常性的无法连接到经纪商的交易系 统上进行有效迅速的交易,因为此时经纪商很难在有限成本区间内及时地把市场风险转嫁出去,所以干脆限制客户下单或者采用一些其它的方式。这种特定时段经常 出现单子无法成交的现象在国内银行外汇实盘交易中也是普遍存在的


  缺乏监管的美国外汇保证金交易

  美国对外汇保证金经纪商并没有形成有效的监管,主要原因是相关立法的落后。美国期货市场监管机构美国商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission,以下简称CFTC)依据的法律主要为: Commodity Exchange Act(1936年商品交易法,以下简称CEA)、Commodity Futures Trading Commission Act (1974年商品期货交易委员会法,以下简称CFTCA)、Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000(2000年商品期货现代化法,以下简称CFMA)。

  CEA赋予CFTC对在交易所和场外交易的期货和商品期权的唯一管辖权,同时也赋予了它监管市场中介机构的权利,如期货佣金经纪商(Futures Commission Merchant,以下简称FCM)。不过,场外外汇交易并不受CEA监管,除非这些交易涉及未来在商品交易所交割。CFTCA赋予了CFTC对期货合约的专属管辖权,但是有关外汇合约的监管没有给出明确的界定。

  由于陈旧的法案早已无法适应当代日新月异的金融衍生品市场,所以克林顿政府在 2000年制定了CFMA。CFMA在很大程度上放松了对OTC衍生品交易的限制。法案规定了“合格投资者”(eligible contract participant,以下简称ECP),用来明确哪些交易者要服从CFTC的监管,而哪些交易者则不必。所谓ECP是指总资产超过1000万美元的各类投资者,包括经纪自营商、期货佣金商以及资产超过500万美元的商品基金。在ECP之间的外汇期货交易不属于CFTC管辖;非ECP客户的交易要服从 CFTC的管辖。但是,CFTC对OTC外汇衍生品的管辖权只是被限定在期货和期权产品上,远期和现货外汇合约并不在CFTC的管辖范围之内。

  从以上可以看出,美国这几部法律当初都是针对期货业的监管而设立的,里面并未考虑到对外汇现货交易的监管,因此在美国外汇经纪商进行外汇保证金交易的客户将得不到有效保护。

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Wednesday, August 22, 2007
  Forex Broker Comparison

http://www.goforex.net/forex-broker-comparison.htm

This table compares some well known forex brokers and market makers. Use this table to compare forex brokers, or click on the links to go to their website. For more firms, including a list of those that use the MetaTrader platform, see the forex broker list.

Firm ↓Type ↓Min. Deposit ↓Min. Margin | Max. Leverage ↓Typical Spread (Majors) ↓Fixed / Variable Spread ↓Commissions ↓Pairs ↓Min. Trade Size ↓
CMC MarketsMM$2,0001%
100:1
2-3F$060$10,000
EFX GroupECN$4001%
100:1
0-3V$5 per $100k2210,000 units
FX SolutionsMM$2500.25%
400:1
3-4V$0201,000 units
GFT ForexMM$2500.25%
400:1
3-4V$060 +10,000 units
Hotspot FX
ECN$7,5002%
50:1
1-3V$3 per $100k16100,000 units
Interactive BrokersECN$5,0002%
50:1
1-3V$2 per $100k90$25,000
IFX Markets (cbfx)MM$5001%
100:1
2-3V$0.625 per 10k lot2710,000 units
IFX Markets UKMM$5,0002%
50:1
3-4V$044$100,000
MG ForexMM$2000.25%
400:1
3-5F$0810,000 units
OandaMM$02%
50:1
1½-3½V$031$1
Realtime ForexMM€2,5002%
50:1
3-4F$033€10,000

Disclaimer: While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this table, GoForex accepts no liability for any errors contained therein. For the most current information, please visit the firm's website.

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