Huge Japan protest over textbook Saturday, 29 September 2007, BBC

More than 100,000 people in Japan have rallied against changes to school books detailing Japanese military involvement in mass suicides during World War II.

The protest, in Okinawa, was against moves to modify and tone down passages that say the army ordered Okinawans to kill themselves rather than surrender.

Okinawa's governor told crowds they could not ignore army involvement.

Some conservatives in Japan have in recent years questioned accounts of the country's brutal wartime past.

Saturday's rally was the biggest staged on the southern island since it was returned to Japan by the United States in 1972, according to the Kyodo News agency.

Grenades

When US soldiers invaded Okinawa at the end of World War II, more than 200,000 people died.

Hundreds of them were Japanese civilians who killed themselves.

The textbooks, intended for use in high schools next year, currently say that as the Americans prepared to invade, the Japanese army handed out grenades to Okinawa residents and ordered them to kill themselves.

Many survivors insist the military told people to commit suicide, partly due to fears over what they might tell the invaders and because being taken prisoner was considered shameful.

The governor of Okinawa, Hirokazu Nakaima, told crowds the episode should not be forgotten.

"We cannot bury the fact that the Japanese military was involved in the mass suicide, taking into account of the general background and testimonies that hand grenades were delivered," he said.

Japan's Kyodo news agency said Saturday's rally was the biggest staged on the southern island since it was returned to Japan by the United States in 1972.

Links:

Okinawa Island (Ryukyu Islands)

Life in Motion: http://lifeinmotion.wordpress.com/2007/09/29/huge-japan-protest-over-textbook/

History Controversy in the News:
http://historycontroversy.blogspot.com/2007/09/huge-japan-protest-over-textbook.html

Labels: Okinawa, Ryukyu

  ¶ 3:55 AM 0 comments

  程序员都死到哪去了？ http://www.vwin.org/2007/09/post-3.html

上世纪的某期电脑报，大概是97，98年？记不清了，也许更早；采访金山的雷军，雷军说他首先是一名程序员，是最早一批通过一个什么考试来着，程序员还是高级程序员？当时，感觉程序员是一个很值得骄傲的职业。金山没做毒霸之前，的确扛过那么一段民族软件产业的大旗。  ¶ 10:38 AM 0 comments

  Monks in the vanguard for regime change By Brian McCartan
Sep 28, 2007, Asia Times Online

THREE PAGODAS PASS, Thailand-Myanmar border - Images of tens of thousands of red-robed monks have been broadcast across the world as Myanmar's Buddhist clergy ups the ante in what has become the largest demonstrations against military rule since the brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 1988.

Monk-led marches on Monday numbered more than 100,000 in the old capital Yangon, while demonstrations with clergy in the vanguard in other major cities tallied in the tens of thousands. Exile-run media reports claim that as many as eight monks have been killed in the violence, which started on Wednesday when soldiers for the first time opened fire on the protests in Yangon.

Early Thursday, soldiers raided Yangon's Ngwe Kyar Yan and Moe Guang monasteries, where they allegedly opened fire, physically assaulted and arrested an estimated 70 monks. Soldiers are now positioned at the front of temples to enforce the government's recent ban on gatherings of more than five people, and the number of protesters has reportedly dropped from Wednesday's figure.

That the leadership of what has evolved into a nationwide popular protest is in the hands of a religious institution that is generally perceived as above worldly concerns may seem odd to outsiders, but this is not the first time Buddhist monks have taken to the streets in Myanmar calling for political change. Indeed, there is a long tradition of political militancy in the monasteries of Myanmar.

Dating to the days of British overlordship in what was then known as Burma, monks have played a pivotal role in politics. Several of Burma's anti-colonial revolts were, at least partially, organized and led by the clergy. Prominent Buddhist anti-colonial leaders included the Venerable U Ottama and the Venerable U Wisara.

U Ottama organized the first anti-colonial activities under the General Council of Buddhist Associations in 1918, started the use of boycott campaigns and became the first Burmese citizen to be imprisoned by the British colonial authorities for a political speech he made in 1921. U Wisara died during the course of a 166-day hunger strike against the colonial regime.

The Saya San rebellion of 1930-31, which became the largest armed revolt against the colonial system in Burma, had a strong Buddhist element to it as well. Monks were actively involved in organizing the rebels of an insurrection that lasted more than two years, required almost 10,000 British troops to subdue and resulted in the deaths of about 10,000 Burmese, including the movement's leader, Saya San.

Monks were again actively involved in the pro-democracy uprising that swept the country in 1988. While most of the demonstrations were organized and led by university and high-school students, monks were crucial in maintaining discipline and giving their movement an important sense of moral legitimacy - though there were also reports of monks participating in retaliatory violence. When the killing began on August 8, 1988, many monks were among those gunned down by soldiers.

In October 1990, as a protest against the killings, disrobing and arrest of monks during the 1988 crackdown and continued harassment thereafter, monks in Mandalay declared an alms boycott against the generals and their families. The then-State Law and Order Restoration Council launched a crackdown and monasteries were raided and as many as 300 monks were forcibly disrobed and imprisoned.

Several of the ethnic insurgencies that have long fought against the government have also enlisted prominent monks as leaders. One, the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), is still, at least officially, run by a Karen monk named U Thuzana. Although it is inclusive of Christians, U Thuzana has seen that the DKBA maintains a strong Buddhist slant to its policies. Meanwhile, the Pa-O resistance movement based in Shan state was also initially led by a Pa-O Buddhist monk, U Nay Mee.


Karmic arbiters

In recognition of the centrality of the Buddhist clergy, or Sangha, in Myanmar society, the ruling generals have tried to be frequently seen making contributions to building monasteries and pagodas and donating money and gifts to prominent monks. State-run media almost daily contain images and stories of military officers visiting monasteries and handing over gifts of cash and religious materials or conferring religious titles. The donations and conferring of titles is a rather materialistic attempt at co-opting the Sangha while attempting to portray to the public an image of moral legitimacy.

Tellingly, however, the Ministry of Religious Affairs is currently run by a military officer, Brigadier-General Thura Myint Maung. Scores of monks who have run afoul of the regime for expressing their political views in recent years have been disrobed and imprisoned. Of the current estimated 1,100 political prisoners, at least 90 of them are monks.

In Myanmar's Buddhist culture, men are expected to become a monk at least once in their lives, usually before they marry as well as after the death of their father. The clergy also plays animportant and overarching social-welfare role, often filling the gaps left by the lack of government-administered services. Young men often join the monkhood to gain access to education provided free of charge by the monasteries.

Because of the lack of opportunities elsewhere in Myanmar's mismanaged and tightly controlled economy, monasteries are also filled with disaffected young novices. The monastic environment itself provides a convenient place to discuss issues, including politics, and to hear the complaints and grievances of the common people who come to their temples seeking advice and religious solace. This has over the years made the monasteries a boiling cauldron of potential anti-government dissent.

The current protests, of course, were initially set off by a very worldly concern: a huge rise in the prices of fuel in mid-August that has significantly inflated the costs of basic goods and services. The initial demonstrations were spearheaded by known activists and former political prisoners.

But after a September 5 confrontation between the clergy and soldiers in the town of Pakokku in north-central Myanmar, in which several monks were badly beaten or arrested and soldiers fired warning shots, the Sangha has led what has morphed into a nationwide protest movement.

When the government failed to apologize for the assault, on September 18 monks declared a boycott on accepting alms from soldiers and their families, an act of defiance known in Myanmar as "overturning the alms bowl". That is why many monks marching in the demonstrations have carried their alms bowls upside down in a symbolic gesture.

This is a particularly powerful gesture, since it denies the soldiers and their families the ability to make merit - a very important part of life in religiously devout Myanmar. The involvement of the monks has given the protest movement a hard political bent, a significant evolution of the initial protests that were in response to fuel-price hikes.

The initial clergy calls for a government apology for soldiers' actions against monks at Pakokku has in recent days shifted to broader demands for dialogue between the government and opposition political parties, the release of political prisoners, and humanitarian demands for adequate food, shelter and clothing for the population.

Characteristic of most of the protests has been the willingness of ordinary citizens to march on either side of the monks in an effort to protect them from possible government violence. In one incident on Wednesday in the Yangon suburb of Ahlone, civilian protesters reportedly sat down around the monks and began praying even as the soldiers started to shoot.

With Wednesday's killing of several monks at Sule Pagoda in Yangon, the protest's demands have shifted again, with some monks now making calls for full-blown regime change. Video and photos of the marches placed on Internet weblogs showed agitated monks shouting slogans and brandishing poles on which they had tacked the Buddhist flag. Other demonstrations featured Buddhist flags raised together with banners emblazoned with the fighting peacock - a symbol of the pro-democracy opposition movement.

Now that the first shots have been fired, with as many as eight monks killed across the country and soldiers stationed in front of temples and monasteries, the issue has become whether the monks can sustain their protest movement. The power of Buddhism is strong in Myanmar, and the symbolism of soldiers gunning down monks could galvanize a broad-based insurrection.

Many hope that foot soldiers will balk at the next round of orders to open fire on monks, though there have been no signs yet of military desertions or breakdowns in the chain of command. What is clear is that the monks have captured the popular imagination, and with the clergy's brave example, people could soon be convinced that now is the time to take the nation's fate into their own worldly hands.

Brian McCartan is a Thailand-based freelance journalist. He may be contacted through brianpm@comcast.net.

Labels: Burma

  ¶ 8:01 AM 0 comments

  Chinese buy into conspiracy theory

Labels: bank, Jews

  ¶ 1:06 AM 0 comments

  《货币战争》：中国版的“阴谋论”？ 作者：英国《金融时报》马利德（Richard McGregor）
2007年9月28日 星期五

滑铁卢之战、六位美国总统之死、希特勒的崛起、日本泡沫经济的破裂、1997-98年的亚洲金融危机，甚至还有发展中国家的环境破坏。

在《货币战争》这本中国最新畅销书中，这些跨越两个世纪、且互不关联的事件都有着一个根本原因：罗斯柴尔德（Rothschilds）银行业家族王朝对货币发行的持久控制。

该书作者宋鸿兵声称，即便在今日，美联储仍然只是私人银行的一个傀儡，而这些私人银行最终效忠于无所不在的罗斯柴尔德家族。

这样一个包罗万象的阴谋论，可能会像那些讲述着“苏黎世侏儒”（gnomes of Zurich，传说中的一个欧洲秘密结社组织——译者注）和华尔街操控全球金融的小册子一样无关紧要，这些散发着陈腐气息的阴谋论书籍现在仍能在西方找到。

但围绕着是否应在美国压力下开放本国金融体系，中国目前正进行着一场长时间的论战。值此之际，此书出人意料地畅销，并得到政府和商界高层人士的阅读。

中国国际金融公司首席经济学家哈继铭(Ha Jiming)表示：“某些企业的高管最近来问我，这一切是否确有其事。”中国国际金融公司是中国最大的投资银行。

中国有很多人认为，中国政府应该在人民币升值问题上顶住美国和其它国家的压力，这本书为他们提供了佐证，无论这些佐证多么离谱。

这本书的出版商是国有中信集团的一个下属机构。它表示，该书的销售量已达到20万册，并估计其盗版发行量为40万册。

宋鸿兵是一位信息科技咨询顾问和业余历史学家，他从1994年起移居美国，现居于华盛顿。他表示，他的兴趣源于揭露1997年亚洲危机内幕的尝试。

一开始，他将自己的发现发表在博客上，之后，他的朋友们建议，他应当联系出版社，推出一个比较翔实的版本。他承认，他对这本书的成功也感到意外。

他在上海的一次新书宣传活动中表示：“我从未想到，这本书会如此畅销，就连高层领导人都会阅读。中国人对金融市场中发生的事情感到紧张，但他们并不知道如何去处理真正的危险。此书为他们提供了一些设想。”

他表示，最令他震惊的一件事，是他“发现”美联储是一家由私人拥有及运行的银行。他表示：“我根本想不到，央行可以是一家私营机构。”

美联储的确将自己描述为“一个不同寻常的公私营元素混合体”。虽然它的7位行长都由美国总统任命，但私营银行确实在美联储的12家地区储备银行中持有股份。

但宋鸿兵忽略了政府的作用，并提出，美联储的关键职能最终是由花旗银行(Citibank)等5家私人银行所控制，而这些银行都与罗斯柴尔德家族保持着“紧密的关系”。

对于该书以罗斯柴尔德家族为焦点，以及该书所谓的罗斯柴尔德家族的犹太宗族特性，宋鸿兵小心谨慎地作了辩护。

他表示：“中国人认为，犹太人聪明而富有，所以我们应该向他们学习。包括我在内，我认为他们真的很聪明，可能是地球上最聪明的人。”

英国犹太人代表局（Board of Deputies of British Jews）首席执行负责人乔恩•本杰明(Jon Benjamin)表示：“中国人最为欣赏犹太人在知识和商业方面所表现出的智慧，而这并不带有或很少带有同时代文化中的反犹太主义色彩。”但他补充称： “不过，这本书的说法与那些关于犹太人及其影响力的最不足信及过时的谣言如出一辙。而这种说法在全球最重要的新兴经济体中得到流传，令人深感忧虑。”

这本书在中国的网络上受到了嘲讽，一些网评称，它夸大了罗斯柴尔德家族残余的影响力，重复了西方原有的一些阴谋论。

哈继铭认为，这本书受到欢迎的原因是日本经济10多年的停滞和亚洲金融危机。他表示，这些事件给很多中国政策制定者带来了深远的影响。

这些官员仍对西方有关开放金融系统和浮动汇率的建议抱有深深的怀疑。哈继铭称：“他们认为，这只是掠夺发展中国家的一种新的手法。”

译者/李碧波

Labels: bank, Jews

  ¶ 1:05 AM 0 comments

  How to find a cutting edge By Richard Milne and Peter Marsh
Published: September 19 2007, FT

Job cuts, boardroom disputes and corruption scandals at Siemens, Volkswagen and DaimlerChrysler have stolen the headlines of German industry in the past decade.

But a closer look at the country’s industrial ranks reveals a group of companies that is both more reticent and more successful than its bigger brethren. These are what Hermann Simon, one of Europe’s best-known management consultants, calls “hidden champions”.

They may be smaller in size – less than €3bn or so in revenues – but they are all world leaders in their fields, with annual growth rates of 10 per cent. In a decade in which low-cost countries in Asia and elsewhere have transformed the economics of manufacturing, these hidden champions have – paradoxically – become even more successful.

It is a trend that prompts Prof Simon to make the bold assertion: “The two winners of globalisation are Germany and China.” He backs his claim with the fact that German hidden champions are two-and-a-half times bigger than they were 10 years ago; have a market share two-and-a-half times larger than their biggest competitor; and have generated 1m jobs.

“These small companies are the core of the German economy. They have lessons for all companies, big and small, [about] how to grow, how to create jobs, how to innovate,” says Prof Simon, who this week publishes Hidden Champions in the 21st Century, a decade after he coined the phrase in the best-selling Hidden Champions.

Several characteristics distinguish these hidden champions: a sharp focus on a niche market that enables them to dominate it and to continue producing in high-cost Germany; a global strategy to open fresh markets; a “do-it-yourself” approach to innovation and production; and most often family or private ownership to ensure continuity.

Klingelnberg, a maker of gear cutting and grinding machines, based near Cologne, is an archetypal example. At the age of 193, it is in the seventh generation of family management. Diether Klingelnberg, now chairman having passed control to his son Jan after 35 years in charge, says the company dominates most of its specialised equipment markets.

He attributes the company's success to thorough research and moving swiftly into its identified market. “You have to specify the market very, very precisely through talking to customers or maybe universities about what might work and then we invest a lot, hire people and build up the market share quickly through growth.” Mr Klingelnberg says opportunities have multiplied in the past 10 years. “The market has become much bigger: it is much easier for us to sell in China, Russia or India now.”

Trumpf, the world leader in laser-powered cutting machines for the metal goods industries, has grown considerably during the past decade. Annual sales have risen more than three times to €1.6bn during the last 10 years, pushing up pre-tax profits nearly six-fold to €204m.

The company has always been a firm believer in a do-it-yourself approach. In the 1970s, when Trumpf first began to explore the market for laser-cutting machines, Berthold Leibinger, supervisory board chairman and the company's owner for the past 40 years, decided it should set up its own laser production operations because most of the existing devices were unsatisfactory. The decision paid off by making Trumpf not only a supplier of the machines but also of the lasers to other companies in fields such as welding.

Self-reliance has also been important for Kern Microtechnic, a world leader in machining systems for microscopic parts for industries such as defence, medicine and watches.

The 120-person company had sales last year of €15m. About a third of this was from sales of machines, the rest from its own production operations, which it uses to make parts for outside customers using Kern machine tools.

Mr Leibinger of Trumpf says innovation has been vital to the company's success, pointing to its decision to branch out from its core field of machine tools to medical lasers and electronics while retaining its position as market leader. He says Trumpf manages this by maintaining close ties with scientists worldwide and continually questioning its strategic direction. Prof Simon points to the rise of German companies in new fields such as biogas, wind energy and nanotechnology as a sign of how responsive they can be.

Hans-Jochen Beilke, head of EBM-Papst, a maker of motors and fans, emphasises the importance of its management style for its success. EBM-Papst has few rules, is heavily decentralised and has an extremely lean organisation – it hired its first public relations specialist only eight weeks ago.

Decentralisation is important, according to Prof Simon. “Hidden champions don't just decentralise their organisation. They also create new companies when they go into new areas. So the head of that new segment is not a middle manager, like he is in a big company, but the head of a separate company; that is very important for responsibility.”

Mr Beilke says the big advantage companies such as EBM-Papst and Trumpf have over larger corporations is the speed at which they can take decisions.

“We could go into a lunch to discuss whether to set up a Russian subsidiary and by the end of it have decided to do it. But if you are at VW or Siemens that could take half a year and then another half a year of committees and lawyers.”

Another characteristic of the hidden champion may seem obvious but is difficult to implement: putting the customer at the centre of the company's decisions. Volker Bartels, head of the management board at Sennheiser, the world's leading headphones producer, says contact with customers highlighted new trends such as the need to shrink headphones in order to keep up with changes in mobile telephony and listening to music on the move.

A lot of companies – particularly larger, listed ones – focus blindly on chasing market share rather than pleasing the customer, observes Hermut Kormann, chief executive of Voith, a maker of paper machines and turbines.

“If a customer has a problem, we don't say it is their fault and not ours. We go to the customer and ask: ‘What do you need to fix it?'”

Call of the east: transatlantic companies book a passage to China

Hidden champions do many things right but they still face challenges in the 21st century. Hermann Simon, a management consultant who specialises in small companies, says: “The biggest challenge for hidden champions is to transform themselves from transatlantic companies into Eurasian ones.”

Prof Simon thinks the typical proportion of their business – 70 per cent in Europe and the US – needs to change to 70 per cent in Europe and China.

“This will have a huge impact on the culture of companies: for some, China has become a second home.” An example is SMS Demag, a maker of machinery for the steel industry, which earns more than 40 per cent of its revenues from China.

Diether Klingelnberg, chairman of machine maker Klingelnberg, sees a bigger problem in Germany's shortage of engineers. “China is producing 300,000 a year and we are barely making 30,000. That is going to hurt us soon.”

He admits this may be more of a problem for Germany's economy than German companies that are building expertise in other countries. Klingelnberg is trying out another solution: this month it advertised for engineers aged 60 and over to answer its need for experienced problem-solvers.

Labels: Germany

  ¶ 1:03 AM 0 comments

  闷声发财的德国“隐形冠军” 作者：英国《金融时报》理查德•米尔恩(Richard Milne)和彼得•马什(Peter Marsh)
2007年9月28日 星期五

过去10年，西门子(Siemens)、大众汽车(Volkswagen)和戴姆勒克莱斯勒(DaimlerChrysler)的裁员、董事会纠纷及腐败丑闻占据了德国业界新闻的头条。

但更近距离地观察一下德国的产业排名，就可以看到一群比规模更大的同业公司更低调、也更成功的企业，这些就是欧洲最知名管理咨询顾问之一的赫尔曼•西蒙(Hermann Simon)所说的“隐形冠军”(hidden champion)。

它们也许规模较小——收入可能不到30亿欧元——但它们都是所在领域的全球领袖，年增长率达到10%。在亚洲和其它地区的低成本国家彻底改变了制造业经济的10年里，这些隐形冠军——令人奇怪的是——甚至变得更为成功。

“全球化的两大赢家是德国和中国”

这种趋势促使西蒙教授提出了大胆的主张：“全球化的两大赢家是德国和中国。”他的论据是，德国的隐形冠军企业规模较10年前扩大了2.5倍；市场占有率较最大的竞争对手高出2.5倍；创造了100万个就业机会。

西蒙教授表示：“这些小公司是德国经济的核心。它们为所有公司（无论大小）提供了关于如何增长、如何创造就业以及如何创新方面的教训。”西蒙最近出版了《21世纪的隐形冠军》(Hidden Champions in the 21st Century)一书，距离他在畅销书《隐形冠军》(Hidden Champions)中创造这一词汇的时间已过去10年。

这些隐形冠军有着一些不同于其它企业的特点：大力关注能让它们占据统治地位并在高成本的德国继续生产的细分市场；拥有开拓新市场的全球战略，以及“亲力亲为”的创新和生产方式；通常是家族企业或私营企业，以确保连贯性。

193岁的老牌企业

铣齿和磨齿机床制造商Klingelnberg就是一个典型的例子。该公司总部位于科隆附近，拥有193年的历史，已进入家族管理的第7代。现任董事长迪特尔•克林格恩伯格(Diether Klingelnberg)表示，该公司在其所在的多数专业设备市场上都处于统治地位。在任35年后，克林格恩伯格已将管理大权移交给儿子詹(Jan)。

克林格恩伯格将该公司的成功归因于深入研究和快速进入它所确定的市场。“你必须通过与客户或大学交谈，非常非常准确地确定市场，然后大力投资、聘用人手并通过增长迅速提高市场份额，”克林格恩伯格表示，过去10年的机会非常多，“市场规模变得更大：我们的产品现在很容易销往中国、俄罗斯或印度。”

过去10年，为金属制品行业生产激光切割机的全球领军企业Trumpf实现了大幅增长，过去10年的年销售额增长了逾3倍，达到16亿欧元，推动税前利润增长近6倍，至2.04亿欧元。

该公司一直是自主战略的坚定信仰者。上世纪70年代，当Trumpf首次开拓激光切割机市场时，公司监事会主席、过去40年一直是公司所有者的贝特霍尔德• 莱宾格(Berthold Leibinger)决定，公司应建立自己的激光切割机生产业务，因为多数已有的设备都不能令人满意。这项决定收到了成效，令Trumpf不仅成为激光切割机供应商，还成为了焊接等领域其它公司激光设备的供应商。

自立对于Kern Microtechnic也很重要。该公司是国防、制药和手表等行业微型零件加工系统的全球领军企业。

去年，这家拥有120名员工的公司实现了1500万欧元的销售额，其中约三分之一来自机器销售，其与部分则来自自己的生产业务。该公司利用这项业务为使用Kern Microtechnic机床的外部客户生产零件。

创新至关重要

Trumpf 的莱宾格表示，创新对于该公司的成功至关重要。他提到，该公司决定从机床核心业务拓展到医用激光设备和电子产品，同时保持其市场领军企业的地位。他表示，通过与世界各地的科学家保持紧密联系，并持续对自己的战略方向提出质疑，Trumpf成功做到了这一点。西蒙教授指出，德国公司在沼气、风能和纳米技术等新领域的崛起，表明了它们的反应相当迅速。

发动机和风扇制造商EBM-Papst的负责人汉斯-约亨•拜尔克(Hans-Jochen Beilke)强调管理风格对成功的重要性。该公司规则不多，权力非常分散且组织架构极为简洁——该公司在8周前才聘用了首位公关专家。

西蒙教授表示，权力分散很重要。“隐形冠军不会仅仅对所在的公司分权。它们在进入新领域后还会成立新公司。这样，新公司的负责人就不是中层管理者，好像他在大公司一样，而是一家独立公司的主管；这对于责任非常重要。”

拜尔克表示，EBM-Papst和Trumpf等公司相对于规模更大公司的巨大优势，在于它们决策的速度。

午餐时决定建立俄罗斯子公司

“我们可能会在午餐时讨论是否成立俄罗斯子公司，午餐结束时，事情就定了。但如果是在大众或西门子，那就可能要等上半年才能作出决定，然后再用半年时间与委员会和律师讨论。”

隐形冠军企业的另一特点似乎非常明显，但很难付诸实施：将客户放在公司决策的核心位置。全球领先耳机制造商森海塞尔(Sennheiser)管理委员会主席福尔克尔•巴特尔斯(Volker Bartels)表示，与客户保持联系突显了新的趋势，例如为了赶上手机市场的变化以及在运动中听音乐而必须缩小耳机。

造纸机和涡轮制造商福伊特(Voith)的首席执行官赫姆特•科尔曼(Hermut Kormann)发现，许多公司——尤其是规模较大的上市公司——盲目把注意力放在追逐市场份额方面，而非取悦客户。

“如果客户遇到问题，我们不会说那是他们的错，而不是我们的。我们会去问客户：‘你需要怎样来改正这个错误？'”

东方的召唤：欧美公司铺路中国

隐形冠军企业取得了很大成绩，但它们在21世纪仍然面临挑战。专门研究小公司的管理咨询顾问赫尔曼•西蒙表示：“隐形冠军企业面临的最大挑战在于，把自己从欧美企业转化为欧亚企业。”

西蒙教授认为，这些企业典型的业务比例——欧洲和美国占70%——需要改变为欧洲和中国占70%。

“这将对企业文化造成巨大影响：对一些企业而言，中国已成为第二故乡。”一个例子是钢铁行业机械制造商SMS Demag，该公司逾40%的收入来自中国。

机床制造商Klingelnberg董事长迪特尔•克林格恩伯格认为德国工程师短缺是个更大的问题。“中国现在每年产生30万工程师，而我们只有3万。这个问题不久就会对我们造成影响。”

他承认，这对德国经济的影响可能比对德国企业更大，因为德国企业正在其它国家发展专业技能。Klingelnberg正努力寻找另一个解决办法：本月，该公司通过广告招聘年满60的工程师，以满足该公司对经验丰富的问题解决者的需求。

译者/梁艳裳

Labels: Germany

  ¶ 1:03 AM 0 comments

  Navis Capital finds a tough hunting ground in China By William Barnes
Published: September 24 2007, FT

Navis Capital expected to find a company to buy in China, but try as it might it could not unearth one - it is still looking.

Richard Foyston, managing director and a founder of the Kuala Lumpur-based private equity firm, says: "We like control. We like to invest in industries we understand or think we understand. For us China is difficult. There must be opportunities there but we haven't found one yet."

Navis was started by three Boston Consulting Group partners with, currently, $1.8bn (€1.2bn, £900m) of commitments. It made its first investments in 2000 with clear if slightly idiosyncratic ideas about how private equity might work in Asia.

Asset prices are higher in China and most companies are looking for funding, without loss of control, which does not suit Navis. But more than that there is a cultural divide for foreign experts schooled in a tradition of gritty Boston Consulting type logic.

"We like managers who have some years operating the business, with at least a knowledge of the same things we look at, even if it's in an unsophisticated way - return on capital, shareholder governance, the [simple] structures we like," says Mr Foyston. "Most companies [in China] don't fit these criteria. We don't understand their management very well; they don't understand us very well. There are lots of ways for things not to go as planned.

"We believe in the China story and if we really focused I'm sure we could findsomething. Many of our companies doa lot of business with China, but we're not kidding anyone, if you want to investin China go to a China fund," he adds.

Japan and Korea pose somewhat different problems than China. Their typically "gigantic, complicated" businesses are simply too big, too tricky for a company that is too small to acquire control of industry leaders and, therefore, can have no logical role to play there.

A putative management relationship also has to work at the emotional and personal level. "We have to be able to understand a market and have a high level of ability to interact [with other players]. That means it must be possible to use English in the boardroom and to be at least half-way accepted by the people you work with," says Mr Foyston.

You may be respected in Japan and Korea, but no matter how long you remain in either country you will always be seen as the foreigner, he adds. In south east Asia - lately overshadowed by booming China and India - you stand a good chance of being treated as at least "half local".

The idea of remaining an "explorer" after a dozen years in Asia seemed extremely interesting to Mr Foyston when he began to feel that his work with Boston Consulting had inclined to the "farming and administration" side of consultancy. The 1997 regional crash stripped away overpriced assets to provide Navis with its opening.

"I like to build businesses and south east Asia was ripe for a certain type of investing. We are very analytical. You live and die on logic and facts. We have a very flat management structure and I hope it will stay that way. People should be well rewarded but no one should work at Navis for the money. Boston Consulting always believed that too," he says.

The first fund was set up with contributions from 40 BCG partners (although no direct relationship exists).

Eight years on the company has closed its fifth private equity fund at $1bn and its managers have expanded from three to 35. On the way it has acquired interests as various as Australia's Dome Coffees, Bangkok Ranch - a duck business, bookshop chains, River Kwai foods (60 per cent of Thailand's canned sweet corn), building materials, packaging, and Cemex Asia (part of the Mexican cement giant).

Navis feels uncomfortable taking on much leverage, but expects to spend lots of time with its acquisitions. The focus is on the business rather than on the finance, which probably makes investment bankers snigger, Mr Foyston concedes. "We act more like a consultancy than an investment company," he says.

Among its 30-odd investments is Asia's leading private investigation firm, Hill & Associates. "We liked it because it is a leader in its field going through a period of transition. We thought it could be made much more profitable with relatively modest improvements."

The firm is willing to wait months, even years, for a deal to come to fruition, unlike the "Hong Kong outfits who come over for a few days and then expect to have everything tied up by the lawyers". Yet, because Navis does not like to be involved with government in any way - for example, heavily regulated, quasi-private or crony companies - its corporate universe in south-east Asia is relatively limited. This helps explain the move into India four years ago.

"We looked at the economies, deal flow, management structures and concluded that India would suit us, but that China wouldn't. That India would have a far better fit with our approach than China. We've seen [in pre-Navis days] all the positives of the China story, but we also realise how different things are in China."

The firm's Indian portfolio now includes a specialist aviation catering firm and two "iconic" restaurant chains that needed reviving in New Delhi and Mumbai, respectively.

Mr Foyston's teams do not have much time for the big picture wealth flows beloved of some fund managers and economists.

"We don't invest in macro themes. In fact I'm not sure we believe in them too much. We've tried to debunk the Asian consumer boom a little - in percentage GDP terms consumption has hardly changed in 20 years. The real key is to know where that fixed spend is moving to so, for example, there comes a tipping point when everyone can afford a car."

Mr Foyston converted to Islam several years ago, along with one other senior partner, which helped when Navis decided to set up two Sharia compliant parallel funds after requests from Gulf investors. Some 15 per cent of capital commitments are screened for Sharia compliance (low debt, non-injurious, no forbidden foods, etc). A much bigger percentage might be difficult.

More controversial among Navis's investors was the decision to set up an equity fund. "We had complaints about losing focus. We did it because we came across lots of companies we liked but that are listed." The equity fund runs to about $100m and could grow to about a third of the size of the private equity funds, says Mr Foyston.

Navis has not set itself a limit on how big it can get. It will however remain cautious and, almost certainly, located in its current geographic region. Mr Foyston says: "We are much more likely to expand into other asset classes than into other parts of the world. We are comfortable here."

Labels: 印度

  ¶ 1:01 AM 0 comments

  “印度会适合我们，中国不会” 作者：英国《金融时报》威廉•巴恩斯(William Barnes)
2007年9月28日 星期五

Navis Capital希望在中国找到一家可以收购的公司，但尽管尽其所能，还是没能找到。现在，该公司仍在物色。

总部位于吉隆坡的这家私人股本公司董事总经理、创始人理查德•弗伊斯顿(Richard Foyston)表示：“我们希望获得控股权。我们希望投资于那些我们了解或者我们认为自己了解的行业。对于我们而言，在中国收购很困难。那里肯定存在机会，但我们迄今仍未发现。”

Navis Capital最初由波士顿咨询公司(Boston Consulting Group)的3位合伙人创立，目前承诺资本额为18亿美元。2000年，该公司进行了首笔投资，对于私人股本在亚洲的运作方式看法相当明确，不过稍微有些另类。

中国企业不愿为融资而失去控股权

中国的资产价格较高，多数公司不愿因为融资而失去控股权，这种情况不适合Navis Capital。但除此之外，对于接受坚定的“波士顿咨询公司”型逻辑传统的外国专家而言，这里存在着文化分歧。

“我们喜欢那些拥有几年业务管理经验的管理者，至少对我们所做的事情有所了解，即便简单了解也可——资本回报、股东治理以及我们喜欢的（简单）结构，”弗伊斯顿表示，“（中国）多数企业不符合这些标准。我们不太了解他们的管理层；他们对我们也不是很了解。很多因素使得事情不能按原计划进行。”

他补充称：“我们相信中国故事，如果我们真正关注这里，我相信我们能够发现一些东西。我们的许多企业与中国开展了很多业务，但我们不想开玩笑，如果你希望投资中国，那就找一家中国基金吧。”

日本和韩国的问题与中国稍有不同。对于那些规模太小、不能获得行业领军企业控股权的公司而言，日韩两国通常“巨大复杂”的企业规模太大，太复杂，因此，在那里进行收购是不合逻辑的。

假定的管理层关系也必须在情感与个人层面发挥作用。弗伊斯顿表示：“我们必须能够了解一个市场，同时具备（与其它参与者）互动的高超能力。这意味着，必须有可能在董事会使用英语，至少能在一半程度上为与你合作的同事所接受。”

在东南亚有可能被视为“半个当地人”

他补充称，你可能会在日本和韩国受到尊敬，但不管你在这两个国家呆多久，你永远会被视作一个外国人。在东南亚地区——近来，中国和印度的蓬勃发展令该地区黯然失色——你很有可能至少被当作是“半个当地人”。

在亚洲打拼了12年后，仍然是个“探险者”的想法令弗伊斯顿极为好奇。当时，他开始感觉，他在波士顿咨询公司的工作倾向于咨询行业中的“农业和行政管理”领域。1997年的亚洲金融危机剥离了高估资产，这为Navis Capital提供了一个开业的机会。

他表示：“我喜欢创建企业，对于某些类型的投资而言，东南亚已相当成熟。我们的分析能力非常强。我们的一切都依靠逻辑和事实。我们的管理结构十分扁平，我希望能够保持下去。人们应该得到很好的报酬，但任何人都不应为了金钱而在Navis Capital工作。波士顿咨询公司也一向信奉这一点。”

凭借40位波士顿咨询公司合伙人的出资，该公司设立了首只基金（尽管之间不存在任何直接的关系）。

经过8年的发展，该公司已设立了第5只私人股本基金，价值10亿美元，经理人数量也从3人扩大到了35人。该公司收购的公司多种多样，例如，澳大利亚的 Dome Coffees、Bangkok Ranch（一家养鸭企业）、书店连锁店、River Kwai食品公司（占泰国甜玉米罐头60%的市场）、建筑材料公司、包装企业、Cemex Asia（墨西哥水泥巨擘Cemex的下属企业）

更像一家咨询公司

杠杆比率偏高会令Navis感到不安，但该公司预计将在收购对象的经营上投入大量时间。其重点放在企业而非财务方面——弗伊斯顿承认，这点可能会遭到投资银行家们的嘲笑。他表示：“我们的做法更像是一家咨询公司，而不是投资公司。”

该公司进行了逾30项投资，其中包括亚洲领先的私人调查公司Hill & Associates。“我们喜欢这家公司，因为它经历一段时期的转型后，成为该领域的领跑者。我们认为该公司在相对温和的改善后，盈利能力可能大幅提高。”

为达成一笔交易，该公司愿意等上数月乃至数年时间，不像“一些香港公司刚来几天，然后就希望由律师敲定所有事情”。不过，由于Navis不喜欢以任何方式与政府打交道——例如，受到严格监管、准私营或与政府关系密切的企业——因此该公司面对的东南亚企业相对有限。这也可以解释为何4年前该公司会进军印度。

“印度会适合我们，中国不会”

“我们对经济、交易流动和管理结构进行审视，然后得出了结论：印度会适合我们，而中国不会。与中国相比，印度更适合我们的方式。我们参考了（在建立Navis之前时期）投资中国的所有积极因素，但我们也意识到中国与其它地方如何不同。”

目前，该公司在印度的投资组合包括一家专业航空餐饮公司，以及两家需要重振其新德里和孟买业务的“标志性”连锁餐馆。

在一些基金经理和经济学家喜爱的宏观财富流动分析方面，弗伊斯顿的团队没有投入太多时间。

对投资“主题”不感兴趣

“我们不投资宏观主题。事实上我不确定我们对这些主题有多大信心。我们已试图揭穿亚洲的消费热潮假相——以占国内生产总值(GDP)的百分比衡量，20年来亚洲消费几乎没有变化。真正的关键在于知道这种固定支出流向哪里，因此，例如当大家都能买得起汽车时，拐点就出现了。”

几年前，弗伊斯顿与另一位高级合伙人一道皈依了伊斯兰教。当应海湾国家投资者要求，Navis决定成立两只符合伊斯兰教教规的平行基金时，这一点起到了帮助。该基金对于约 15%的资本投资项目进行审查，确保其符合伊斯兰教教规（低债务水平、不具有伤害性、没有违禁的食物等）。要审查比例更大的投资项目可能非常困难。

在Navis 投资者中引发更大争议的，是该公司决定成立一只股票基金。“我们收到了有关我们丧失侧重点的抱怨。我们之所以决定这么做，是因为我们遇到许多我们青睐的公司，但它们都上市了。”弗伊斯顿表示，该股票基金的规模达到约1亿美元，今后可能发展至相当于其私人股本基金约三分之一的规模。

Navis对自己能达到的规模并没有设定限制。不过，该公司仍将非常谨慎，并且几乎可以肯定的是，该公司会继续留在目前的地理区域。弗伊斯顿表示：“与进军全球其它地区相比，我们向其它资产类别扩张的可能性要大得多。我们对目前的地点很满意。”

译者/何黎

Labels: 印度

  ¶ 1:00 AM 0 comments

  目击藏传佛教法会 英国《金融时报》中文网特约撰稿人邬东言
2007年9月28日 星期五

刚刚在非常偏远的藏区参加了一个藏传佛教的盛大法会。对于一个一直生活在大都市的人来说，最大的收获，就是重新见识了久违了的信仰的力量。

法会开在深山里的一座寺庙。从主要的公路到寺庙，虽然只有二十多公里路，但是由于是土路，又是山路，所以车队足足开了两个小时，像一串蜗牛在慢慢蜿蜒。

土路沿着一条清澈的河流，向着山谷深处蔓延，似乎永远也没有尽头。沿途有三个藏族的自然村落。寺庙活佛的车开在最前面。当第一个村子出现在视野时，漫山遍野，出现了众多插满彩旗的摩托车，隆隆的马达声，突如其来地，打破了山谷的寂静。原来，当地的风俗习惯是，每次活佛回寺庙，当地藏民都要到路口来迎接，并且一直护送二十多公里一直到寺庙。只不过以前是骑马，而现在换了现代的交通工具——摩托车。形式可以改变，传统是不能丢弃的。

活佛的车子开过的地方，一队一队的藏民很有秩序地站在路边，捧着哈达迎接。很多藏民不顾身体的年迈，跑步追着活佛的车子，很恭敬地要给活佛钱。我好奇地跑过去看，居然大多数都是一元两元的破烂票子。但是看他们每个人小心翼翼的样子，这很可能是他们所有的现钱了。

法会为期三天，基本上是当地人的一次狂欢节日。每天一大早天刚蒙蒙亮，喇嘛和活佛就开始念经，一般上午九十点钟的样子，正式的法事活动就结束了，狂欢正式开始。所有人轮番在寺庙前的广场上载歌载舞，一直到太阳将近落山才散场。这可是四千米的高原啊，我可是上个二楼都气喘如牛的。

为了众多客人的到来，寺庙里每个房间里都新安装了很多亮亮的灯泡。不知道是否是因为点惯长明灯的缘故，所有的灯居然都没有装开关！我们这些远方来的客人们，每天只好爬上爬下地忙着装卸灯泡。

我的好朋友把她的手机掉在地上了，回头去找，捡到的人无论如何不肯承认。结果，有看到他捡的藏民主动跑来告诉我朋友，说亲眼看到谁谁捡了她的手机，那个人的名字是什么，是哪里来的等等，还抱歉地解释说，那个人是从外面城市里来卖小商品的，不是他们本地人。于是我朋友顺利地要回了她的手机。

在法会期间，不断地有藏民到活佛的房间，请活佛对着他们有病痛的地方吹气，然后就在我的眼前，生龙活虎兴高采烈地离去，像是被医好了！

法会的最后一天，我的帽子挤丢了。上千人的大广场，上哪里去找？虽然是一顶不值钱的帽子，但是在艳阳浓烈的高原，还真是必需品。最不可思议的是，过了一会儿，居然有一个不认识的藏民，拿着我的帽子，跑到我面前，问是否是我的帽子！在那一刻，我真的相信他是菩萨化现的！

昨天晚上，看了美国的记录片《关于宇宙，你不知道的Ｘ》。片子中几乎集中了目前世界上最顶尖的科学家们，用量子物理学、神经学、化学等各个科学领域的最新研究成果告诉我们，这个宇宙一些基本规律。其中包括：时间的可逆性，万物的统一性，精神如何作用于物质等等。我在看的时候想，藏民可能一辈子都听不懂，甚至听不到这些新鲜深奥的名词，但是，千百年来，他们却身体力行地实践着。

Labels: Tibet

  ¶ 12:59 AM 0 comments

  Total says pulling out would raise hardship

Labels: Burma

  ¶ 12:58 AM 0 comments

  法国道达尔否认将撤出缅甸 英国《金融时报》艾德•克鲁克斯(Ed Crooks)伦敦报道
2007年9月28日 星期五

法国石油集团道达尔(Total)对缅甸的局势“深表关注”，但否认该公司将撤出缅甸。道达尔在缅甸经营着一个天然气项目。

道达尔辩称，该公司在缅甸的业务为成千上万的人带来了好处，并且可以作为“想办法解决缅甸人权问题的商业和政治领袖”的榜样。

和美国的雪佛龙(Chevron)一样，道达尔也是一家仍活跃在缅甸的西方大公司。

英国的Premier Oil等西方公司已经从缅甸撤出。

但印度石油天然气集团(ONGC)和中国石油天然气集团公司(CNPC)都在增加在缅甸的投资。这两家公司都是国家控股的企业。

缅甸天然气资源丰富，甚至可以用庞大来形容。英国石油(BP)发布的《世界能源评估》(Review of World Energy)显示，在去年年底，缅甸已探明的天然气储量为5400亿立方米。

译者/李碧波

Labels: Burma

  ¶ 12:58 AM 0 comments

  "PayPal Meets MasterCard" Without The High Fees September 24, 2007 Ted's Take

REVOLUTION JOINED BY INDUSTRY LEGENDS AND MAJOR BANKS TO LAUNCH REVOLUTIONARY PAYMENT SYSTEM

Steve Case, Ted Leonsis, Larry Summers, David Pottruck, Russell Hogg and others form and invest in company to transform payment industry

New company to be called Revolution Money; Internet pioneer Leonsis named Chairman

New Internet-based payment system with innovative credit card drastically alters economics of the industry, generating significant consumer benefits and higher level of security; saves merchants and online store owners on rising interchange fees

Company first to combine the power of free online money transfer with credit and pre-paid in one integrated offering

WASHINGTON, September 24, 2007 – Revolution LLC, the investment company created by Steve Case, today launched a new subsidiary, Revolution Money, an innovative new payment platform created to transform the payment industry by drastically altering the economics through Internet-based technology, generating significant consumer and merchant benefits. Revolution Money offers consumers one of the most secure credit cards with significantly lower interchange fees for merchants and the first free online money transfer service, Revolution Money, formerly GratisCard Inc., has been formed by Case, Revolution Money Chairman Ted Leonsis, former United States Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, former Charles Schwab CEO David Pottruck, and former MasterCard International President and CEO Russell Hogg, among others, and is backed by Citi, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.

"Traditional, and even online, incumbents have been charging what adds up to billions of dollars of fees every year that ultimately comes out of consumers' pockets," said Steve Case, chairman and CEO of Revolution LLC. "So we have built an innovative Web 2.0 company based on the latest technology to disrupt the decades-old system with the goal of offering the industry's most accessible, easy-to-use and secure payment system that puts money back where it belongs, in consumers' pockets."

Revolution Money has created the first Web 2.0 payment platform designed for a mainstream consumer audience, especially those who enjoy the convenience of handling their financial affairs and purchasing online. Its technology will enable account holders to do things that no single alternative has been able to do before – fuse all of the expected functions of a traditional offline credit card with a stored value card, and combine it with new online functionality.

Today Revolution Money introduced its first two flagship offerings – Revolution MoneyExchange, the first free money transfer service that powers online transactions, and RevolutionCard, the industry's first anonymous, PIN-protected credit card.

Revolution MoneyExchange
Revolution MoneyExchange's money transfer service is the first online payments platform for social and instant messaging networks, allowing consumers to safely transfer funds via the Internet to anyone, even merchants, for free. Consumers can set up a free Revolution MoneyExchange account in just minutes by registering at www.revolutionmoneyexchange.com, and start transferring money to friends, family, or merchants. In the future, Revolution MoneyExchange plans to provide its users the option of linking their accounts to a RevolutionCard, offering the convenience of combining their online and offline payment needs into a unified stored value and credit experience.

Consumers will be able to use Revolution MoneyExchange across a variety of Internet platforms and portals, including social networks and Instant Messaging portals

Revolution MoneyExchange launched in invitation-only beta form today and will be gradually expanded before being made available to all consumers later this year.

RevolutionCard
When a consumer uses a credit card at any store today the merchant is required by traditional credit card companies to pay them an average of 1.9 percent of the total sale. For example, when a consumer buys a $500 television using their credit card the store has to pay the credit card company an average of $9.50. With billions of credit card transactions annually these fees – called —interchange fees' – totaled an estimated $56 billion paid in the United States to credit card companies in 2006 alone. Revolution Money's sophisticated new payment system, based on secure Internet technology, slashes these fees to 0.5 percent, creating significant savings for merchants and enabling them, in turn, to offer their customers new and immediate rewards, such as cost savings and loyalty programs.

"Today, merchants, and ultimately consumers, pay an enormous sum just to have the convenience of using a credit card," said Jason Hogg, Founder and CEO of Revolution Money. "Revolution Money's proprietary operating system uses the Internet to circumvent the traditional interchange system, providing a drastically reduced fee structure that could create billions of dollars of merchant and consumer savings – essentially flipping the industry on its head."

In addition to the significant savings generated by Revolution Money, the company has also created one of the most secure forms of payment. Revolution Money is the first to offer an anonymous credit card with PIN-based encrypted technology. With no name or account number on their card, consumers' identities remain anonymous, drastically reducing the risk of identity theft, fraudulent charges and other consequences of cards being lost or stolen.

"Payment security and identity theft are big concerns for virtually everyone today," said Hogg. "That is why we have created a network based on the latest technology that provides consumers the highest security available. Whether a consumer wants the benefits of a traditional credit card, pays bills online or transfers money, Revolution Money is the most cost-effective and secure offering available."

Accepting RevolutionCard is easy for merchants. It can be accepted through existing payment processors or directly through Revolution Money. It can seamlessly integrate into existing Point-of-Sale (POS) software and implementation can be completed remotely. Revolution Money has effectively created the first win-win credit service for merchants by offering a drastically reduced-interchange service that increases their profitability.

"Customer convenience is a number one priority for our company," said Comcast-Spectacor President Peter Luukko. "RevolutionCard allows us to provide our customers with a new and innovative payment platform which ultimately saves the consumer money. We rewarded our customers who registered during our trial period with credit toward food, beverage or merchandise purchases at the Wachovia Center. Additionally, we offered our season ticket holders an autographed jersey as incentive for using RevolutionCard as their payment form. RevolutionCard is a necessity for any organization looking to truly reward their customers and simultaneously reduce credit card fees."

To apply for RevolutionCard, consumers only need to fill out one application form, found at participating merchants or online at www.revolutioncard.com. RevolutionCard offers instant customer approvals and merchants are able to issue co-branded PIN-protected RevolutionCards on-the-spot in their stores and through their websites.

Launch Partners
To demonstrate its versatility, Revolution Money has launched pilot programs in a number of segments, including credit, online, gift and person-to-person. In a recent trial, the company successfully performed in multiple programs with the Philadelphia Flyers and the Philadelphia 76ers. RevolutionCard is also launching card distribution programs and marketing programs in multiple segments, including airlines, cable, petroleum and convenience stores, energy products and services, apparel and footwear, online, healthcare, computers, electronics, and sports. Northwest Airlines is one of Revolution Money's largest acceptance partners.
The first major partner to offer Revolution MoneyExchange will be AOL's AIM® service, the largest instant messaging community in the United States. Starting this fall, AIM® users will be able to download the Revolution MoneyExchange AIM® plugin at http://gallery.aim.com to launch Revolution MoneyExchange and make payments via instant message directly from their AIM® Buddy List® feature for free.

To gain ubiquitous acceptance by merchants, Revolution Money has established key strategic partnerships with leading merchant acquirers and processors, such as Fifth Third Processing Solutions, to enable millions of merchants across the United States to immediately and seamlessly begin accepting RevolutionCard. Processing more than 21 billion transactions annually, Fifth Third provides best-in-class processing solutions to diverse financial institutions, merchants and
networks worldwide.

Bank Partners
Unlike most bank credit card issuers who are limited to a narrow scope of credit approval guidelines specific to their bank, RevolutionCard seamlessly utilizes multiple partners to achieve unparalleled consumer approval rates. The platform is able to achieve these high approval rates by giving consumers access to multiple banks, which approve credit across a much broader range of credit scores than traditional credit card companies do, while still only having to fill out one application. RevolutionCard's centralized application system dramatically increases immediate consumer credit approval rates, on terms appropriate for each consumer.

Revolution Money has initially partnered with four institutions: First Bank and Trust (Brookings, SD) issues the accounts, Citi (New York, NY) acts as a prime partner, CompuCredit (Atlanta, GA) acts as sub-prime partner and Union State Bank (Orangeburg, NY) acts as a merchant settlement bank.

Financing
Revolution Money recently secured an additional $50 million in Series B venture capital funding. The financing round was led by Citi, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and Ted Leonsis, and included its controlling investor, Revolution LLC. In addition to the equity financing, Revolution Money has secured debt financing from Citi to fund growth of Revolution Money's prime consumer loan portfolio. The investments will be used to accelerate the company's growth, enhance product development and expand marketing and sales efforts.

"The launch of Revolution Money is another example of how Web 2.0 technologies and business processes can transform an industry for the benefit of consumers and merchants alike, while providing great growth and value creation opportunities for stakeholders," said Ted Leonsis, Chairman of Revolution Money.

Management Team
Ted Leonsis, Vice Chairman emeritus of AOL and majority owner of the Washington Capitals and Washington Mystics, and minority owner of the Washington Wizards, is Revolution Money Chairman. In addition to Leonsis, Revolution Money's Board of Directors is comprised of Steve Case, Lawrence Summers, former U.S. Treasury Secretary; Russell Hogg, former President and CEO of MasterCard International, Inc.; Franklin Raines, former CEO of Fannie Mae and former director of the Office of Management and Budget; David Pottruck, former CEO of Charles Schwab; David Golden, CFO of Revolution LLC and former Vice Chairman of JPMorgan; Jason Hogg, Founder and CEO of Revolution Money; and Patrick Graf, Co-founder and CTO of Revolution Money. Marshall Group Chairman and CEO Dennis Mathisen is also a founding investor.

Revolution Money was founded by CEO Jason Hogg and co-founded by CTO Patrick Graf. Hogg was previously a founder of MBNA Canada and chief business development officer at MBNA Canada. He was the COO of Medsite, Inc. and previously President of HorizonLive. Hogg is the son of Russell Hogg, the former President and CEO of MasterCard International Inc., who is credited with launching BankNet, MasterCard's global packet-switching network. Graf was previously SVP for Q1 Solutions. Hogg and Graf are joined by COO Dax Cummings and CFO Darren Thompson. Cummings is a seasoned veteran who previously ran MBNA's US Endorsed Card business and served as member of their Management Committee. Thompson was formerly the head of Credit Finance at Fannie Mae and a Managing Director at Goldman Sachs.

About Revolution LLC
Revolution LLC, the Washington, DC-based company launched by Steve Case in 2005, seeks to drive transformative change by shifting power to consumers and building significant, category-defining companies in the process. Revolution's mission is to build companies based on disruptive business models that give people more choice, control and convenience in the important aspects of their lives. Revolution is currently focusing on four market sectors poised for disruptive change – Health, Financial, Resorts and Balanced Living. For more information go to www.revolution.com.

MEDIA CONTACT:

Brad Burns
202-776-1400
brad.burns@revolution.com

Labels: e-currency

  ¶ 11:10 AM 0 comments

  China, US delicately juggle Taiwan By Jing-dong Yuan, Sep 25, 2007
Asia Times Online

MONTEREY, California - Taiwan's bid for United Nations membership has again been rejected, action that was hailed by Beijing as a reaffirmation of the "one China" position and its claim of sovereignty over the island. However, the situation remains tenuous.

Taiwan's attempts for UN membership began in 1993 when the government of president Lee Teng-hui sought a seat in the international body under the name of the Republic of China (ROC). But this time the Chen Shui-bian administration sought to enter under the name "Taiwan", a provocative move that has incurred strong condemnation and even strong warnings from Washington. Even the Nationalist (Kuomintang) party, not to be outdone by Chen, called for its own referendum to return to the UN under the name "Republic of China".

These developments constitute serious challenges to both mainland China and the administration of US President George W Bush. For Washington, these are issues of commitments, priorities, and its relationship with Beijing.

For obvious reasons, Bush administration officials are concerned that Chen's move could provoke China to resort to "non-peaceful" means under its 2005 Anti-Secession Law in reaction to what is seen as attempts toward de jure independence. This in turn raises questions about US commitments to the defense of Taiwan under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

However, these commitments are to be honored only if there is unequivocal and unprovoked unilateral use of force against Taiwan by mainland China, not a carte blancheto Taipei regardless of what it does. Indeed, in recent years, the Bush administration has on many occasions stated that it is opposed to any unilateral change of the status quo by either side of the Taiwan Strait.

Within this context, Bush administration officials have become increasingly worried about Chen's apparent attempts to change the status quo and issued several warnings in recent months. US deputy assistant secretary of state Thomas Christensen, speaking at the US-Taiwan Business Council this month, warned Taipei against "needlessly provocative behavior" and expressed serious US concerns over the issue of name change in an upcoming referendum. While affirming US commitments to and friendship with Taiwan, he also emphasized that Washington would not "let Taipei define our position".

That Washington is so adamant and open on this issue is dictated by its priorities elsewhere, namely the war on terrorism and its quagmire in Iraq, and other strategically more urgent problems such as Iran's nuclear developments and the situation in the Middle East. The US can hardly afford being distracted by another crisis across the Taiwan Strait. It is therefore annoyed by what it sees as political posturing, unnecessary provocation, and potentially harmful actions against US interests.

US reactions to the referendum issue are also indicative of its changing relationship with China. The Bush administration came into office more than six years ago viewing China as a strategic competitor and determined to strengthen its alliances in Asia and support Taiwan in an effort to contain the rise of China. The events of September 11, 2001, changed that early assessment and have given Washington a different set of priorities. The administration has since redefined its strategic interests and recognizes the need for closer cooperation with Beijing.

The Sino-US relationship has evolved into one characterized as cooperative, constructive and candid or, to quote President Bush, "complex". Beijing and Washington cooperate on a whole range of issues, from the North Korean and Iranian nuclear challenges, to the environment and global warming, to the "global war on terrorism". China and the US have become ever more interdependent economically, with bilateral trade surpassing US$300 billion this year.

Both have come to recognize the importance of handling the delicate Taiwan issue. Washington seeks to maintain the status quo so it can stay focused on its "war on terrorism" and on combating the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Beijing recognizes the role that the US can play in reining in Taiwanese independence even as it continues its military preparation to deter and respond to such a scenario.

But Beijing is facing a serious challenge. It is quite clear that Chen Shui-bian's referendum plan is largely driven by Taiwan's election politics as much as by Chen's own craving for personal legacy. It is also obvious that despite serious warnings from both Washington and Beijing, the referendum is most likely going to take place. How Beijing should react is a test for the mainland leadership's acumen as well as resolve.

Handled well, the impact of the pending crisis could be absorbed, leaving maximum flexibility without either losing face or losing tempers. This is crucial in particular given the pending 2008 Summer Olympic Games and China's international reputation as a rising power.

For Beijing, there are three principles to keep in mind. The first is that Chen's motive for holding the referendum is to provoke. Overreaction hands Chen the very prize he seeks. And while the 2005 Anti-Secession Law defines the overall parameter of what is tolerable and what is not, Beijing should leave itself open to an extremely flexible interpretation.

Second, time is on the mainland's side. The fact that Chen has sought all kinds of tactics to push the edge of the envelope concerning de jure independence demonstrates his frustration over the futility of such attempts and the fear that such independence is becoming increasingly elusive for Taiwan. The mainland and the island have become economically more dependent, and many Taiwanese business people and the public in general prefer the status quo to uncertain and unpredictable change. Indeed, cross-Strait trade continues to expand; the first nine months of 2007 have already seen a 13% increase over the same period last year, and total two-way trade for 2007 is projected to reach US$110 billion, with the balance heavily favoring Taiwan. This is what worries Chen.

Finally, Beijing should be sanguine about the US role. While Washington is opposed to any unilateral change of the status quo and hence has strongly criticized Chen's referendum move, it does not share completely Beijing's vision for unification. The US continues to offer arms sales to Taiwan, with the most recently announced possible deals worth more than $2.2 billion, including P-3C Orion anti-submarine patrol aircraft and SM-2 anti-aircraft missiles. There are also reports of possible US sales of F-16s to Taiwan.

Clearly, US interests remain a Taiwan separated from the mainland. Herein lies the limitation to what Beijing can expect of Washington.


Dr Jing-dong Yuan is director of the East Asia non-proliferation program at the James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies and associate professor of international policy studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.

Labels: Taiwan

  ¶ 9:01 AM 0 comments

  緬甸民主運動觸及中美神經 撰文 羅少蘭
2007/09/25, 週二

在僧侶和尼姑的帶領下，約10萬名緬甸人民參與了自軍政府掌權20年來最大型的示威，要求結束軍人獨裁統治。中國與美國對是次示威都極度關注，因為緬甸是中美地緣政治角力的主戰場之一，牽涉兩國重大的地緣利益，中美長久以來在緬甸的角逐，為是次民主運動增添了複雜性。

示威由9月中開始，軍政府表現了克制，未有進行鎮壓，至9月24日仰光有約10萬人示威，政府才透過國營電視台威脅若群眾拒絕散去，政府有可能展開鎮壓行動，相比1988年導致3000人死亡的鎮壓行動，軍政府今次的表現可謂非常容忍。

外交界分析認為，軍政府的容忍是出於其長期支持者北京政府的壓力，外交人士普遍相信北京考慮及2008奧運將於年內舉行，為免被國際社會指控支持血醒政權，故北京積極阻止緬甸軍政府對示威者進行暴力鎮壓。

中國是緬甸軍政府在國際上最大的靠山，無論是經貿或軍事，中國都是緬甸政府的最大支持者。自1988年執政至今，軍政府一直受到西方孤立，她雖然跟東盟及印度維持頗頻繁的經貿關係，但中國始終是緬甸的最大貿易國，每年貿易額達12億美元，而中國在緬甸取得的石油總開採面積已超過渤海灣油田的面積。

對中國而言，緬甸具有極其重要的戰略意義，她扼守印度洋與太平洋要道馬六甲海峽的出入口，控制了緬甸就可部份控制馬六甲海峽。透過影響緬甸政府，中國有能力“掐住”東南亞諸國、日本和台灣的石油航運，而中國正計劃從緬甸修建油管及鐵路直接通到中國，屆時中國的油船及貨船不需要經過馬六甲海峽和南海，只需要進入緬甸，然後通過輸油管及鐵路直接抵達中國內地，將大為降低石油及貨運成本。

美國對緬甸的戰略位置也虎視眈眈，自緬甸軍政府推翻了親美的文人政府以後，美國就一直在制裁緬甸軍政府，據報美國不但資助反政府勢力，並曾經以“反恐”之名，派遣特種部隊在緬甸邊界進行軍事活動，據稱最後緬甸獲中國解放軍支援，才得以解圍保住政權。

據報2003年伊拉克轟炸結束後，美軍從原準備增援海灣的部隊抽調4000人，準備投入緬甸“反恐”戰場，解放軍獲得情報後，從中越邊境、濟南軍區及北京軍區調動軍隊到中緬邊境協防，致使中美之間劍拔弩張。

為了增強緬甸政府軍的實力，據報中國加速以軍援及租借方式向緬甸政府提供裝甲車、火炮、肩托式防空導彈等各種輕重武器。緬軍為了迅速掌握新裝備，不惜以每月6000到8000元人民幣的薪酬，招募解放軍退伍軍人。據報，現在緬軍中四川、湖南兵就有2000多人，大多數擔任基層軍官職位，可見中緬兩軍關係的密切程度。

由2000年開始，美國就推動把緬甸問題列入聯合國安理會議程，最初美國羅列的罪狀包括緬甸試圖謀求發展核武器、走私販毒及侵犯人權。今年1月，緬甸問題進入安理會表決階段，由美國起草的決議案指責緬甸國內存在人權、艾滋病、毒品等問題，稱這些問題對地區安全造成威脅，跟最初的指控存在頗大的分別。

中國運用作為安理會常任理事國的否決權對該決議案投下反對票，緬甸逃過被制裁的命運。幾乎在同一時間，中國石油天然氣勘探開發公司與緬甸石油天然氣公司在緬甸仰光簽訂正式合同，獲得緬甸3個深水區塊的石油天然氣勘探開採權，總面積為1萬平方公里，時間上的巧合不難令人懷疑油田合約是緬甸給予中國投下反對票的回報。

緬甸人民進行大規模示威爭取民主，顯示軍政府的獨裁統治不得人心，對於人民單純的良好意願，我們表示同情，然而對於大國對緬甸的野心，緬甸人民應有所警惕，以免示威者單純的爭取民主願望被利用，成為大國間地緣政治角力的手段。期望緬甸的民主運動能得出良好結果，使緬甸走上獨立的民主之路。  ¶ 1:40 AM 0 comments

  From a bank run to nationalising deposits   ¶ 1:13 AM 0 comments

  从英国发生银行挤兑谈起 作者：英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员马丁•沃尔夫(Martin Wolf)
2007年9月25日 星期二

过去一周，对英国公众和政界均造成冲击的金融恐慌，带来了两个值得注意的结果：一是自1866年Overend & Gurney破产以来英国的银行首次出现挤兑；二是突然之间，银行存款就转变为公众债务。这些时刻具有历史意义。

那么，这些令人惊讶的事件是怎么得以发生的？答案是“传染效应”，正如10年前亚洲金融危机期间发生的状况一样。当泰国于1997年7月份宣布泰铢贬值时，几乎没人预见到这场危机蔓延的方式。不过，传染并非漫无目的。一些国家比其它国家更容易受到感染。

Northern Rock也同样如此。这家专业的住房贷款银行通过向批发市场出售贷款，节省了向公众吸纳存款的成本。这是个有利可图的策略，直至美国次级抵押贷款和证券化融资市场危机瓦解了投资者的信心。Northern Rock未能确保自己置身于这一突发事件之外。信用（或信任）消失了，而随之消亡的还有其商业模式。

这些市场上流动性的干涸，最终迫使该行向承诺提供融资的英国当局寻求帮助。但当局拯救Northern Rock的努力，无异于在戏院里大喊“失火”。惊慌失措的公众纷纷想把自己的存款提取出来。

随着公众陷入恐慌，政府官员也是一样。一个具备偿付能力的政府是不会让普通储户损失大笔存款。存款保险是消除这种可能性的一种方法。但在英国，此类保险只对前2000英镑提供全额保险，此后3.3万英镑只有90%的保险。更糟糕的是，如果破产清偿，储户是排在最末。英国存款保险并不能防范问题银行出现挤兑情况。它保证这些情况会发生。出现挤兑状况相当合理。

英国央行(Bank of England)提供的流动性援助，并不足以消除恐慌情绪，因为公众担心Northern Rock丧失偿付能力。即便是政府当局出面澄清也无济于事。毕竟，如果这些要人不打算立即关闭这家银行，他们还能说些别的什么吗？此外，为何公众对一家金融机构的信心应该超越对市场的信心呢？

政府为所有存款担保的决定完全可以理解。首先，储户支持这一决定。其次，任何政界人士都知道，目睹大量普通老百姓试图从一家受到监管的金融机构提取存款，对政府能力的信誉构成致命打击。第三，指望普通老百姓评估一家老牌金融机构的策略，特别是当该机构的贷款短期内大幅增加时，这种想法颇为可笑。最后，传染效应会蔓延。上周一，发放购房贷款的专业机构股价普遍大幅下挫。Northern Rock或许不是一家具有系统重要性的机构。但其挤兑问题却成为一个具有系统重要性的事件。

我必须在此声明自己的利益关系：我的近亲在 Northern Rock有存款。因此作为个人，我对政府这种做法感到满意。但作为一个讲究实际的评论员，我对此感到惋惜。但任何一届英国政府都会采取相同举动。如果政府没有介入，流向那些被认为肯定不会破产的大银行的挤兑风波，会一发而不可收拾。

然而，为存款进行担保的决定引发了巨大的问题。存款负债被国有化了，而尽管金融系统中的资产受到了监管，但仍然掌握在私人手中。如果不理解这一点的含义，你就没有关注金融行业目前发生的情况。

这场危机为我们提出了几个问题。第一个是这场危机是否本可以避免。请注意，在这场动荡中，出差错的不是Northern Rock的信贷策略，而是借款。监管机构还应当坚称，它能够避免其赖以获取资金的金融市场崩溃吗？我不知道答案。但现在这已经成为更加广泛的一个大问题。

第二个问题是，这场危机是否本可以得到更好的处理。一些人认为，如果英国央行坚持仅以惩罚性利率向优质抵押物提供贷款并拒绝干预金融市场的决心不那么“维多利亚主义”，情况可能会好一些。然而，降低3月期利率可能也救不了Northern Rock。如果英国央行愿意接受范围更广的抵押物，可能就会有更多金融机构找上门，从而可能使Northern Rock的可怕状况看上去没那么独特。但为了鼓励它们采取这样做，英国央行收取的利率也要比惩罚性利率低。这就等于向管理不善的金融机构提供一笔金额巨大的补贴。

还有一种观点认为，英国央行本应当秘密提供借款或者安排一些其它金融机构进行收购，而不是像上周所做的那样，公开行使最终贷款人职能。但这在如今是不可能的。Northern Rock必须发出利润预警。相似地，任何收购提议也必须通告股东。存款者就会知道，交易可能落空，对他们造成可怕的后果。因此，英国央行认为，透明度本身导致银行挤兑一定会发生。

第三个问题是，未来应该采取什么措施。我的同事约翰•凯(John Ka)在他的专栏里给出了部分答案。通常的破产程序不应当适用于银行。此外，应当提高存款保险的额度，并确保随时可以获得。但倒闭金融机构的股东一定不能获得纾困。这就是为什么我仍然认为，英国央行坚持仅以惩罚性利率向优质抵押物提供流动性的做法是正确的。这应当会给股东提供一些坚守审慎管理的刺激。

但还有其它更宽泛的问题。只要政府不能——或者不愿——让普通存款机构遭受麻烦，道德风险就会泛滥。答案肯定要包含更加严厉的监管规定：提高资本金率、必须获取长期次级债务和特定的流动性要求。

最终，这场危机和传染结束了吗？我的猜测是，“远未如此”。如果在实体经济健康的时候，金融系统也会发生如此剧烈的震荡，那么我担心一旦经济环境开始恶化，会发生什么。金融系统似乎比我担心的还要不稳固。以往流动性过剩局面的终结很可能带来更多糟糕的意外。但这仍然是必要和健康的。

译者/何黎

Labels: bank, UK

  ¶ 1:12 AM 0 comments

  Pakistan upset over India-UK war game in Kashmir Mon Sep 24, 2007 11:52am BST, Reuters

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - High-altitude military exercises by India and Britain in mountains in the disputed Kashmir region are not legal, Pakistan said on Monday.

British and Indian forces are carrying out a three-week exercise in the Ladakh area of the Himalayan region of Kashmir, at the heart of decades of hostility and the cause of two of the three wars the nuclear-armed neighbours have fought.

Pakistan had lodged a protest with both India and Britain over the exercises, which were not a "legal activity", Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Tasnim Aslam said.

"Ladakh is part of Jammu and Kashmir, (which) is an internationally recognised disputed territory and more than anybody else, Britain should be aware of it," Aslam told a weekly news conference.

Last week, Pakistan lodged a protest with India over a plan to open the Siachen Glacier, also in the Kashmir region, to tourist trekkers. The two sides have faced off across the glacier, known as the word's highest battlefield, since 1984.

The South Asian neighbours began a peace process in early 2004 after going to the brink of their fourth war in 2002.

The talks have led to an improvement in sporting, transport and diplomatic links, but there has been no substantial progress on Muslim-majority Kashmir.  ¶ 1:02 PM 0 comments

  巴基斯坦抗议印英在印控克什米尔地区举行军演 2007年09月24日 新华网

新华网伊斯兰堡９月２４日电（记者 饶博） 巴基斯坦外交部发言人阿斯拉姆２４日在例行新闻发布会上说，印度和英国在印控克什米尔地区举行军事演习是非法的。

据媒体报道，印度和英国的安全部队１６日开始在印控克什米尔地区拉达克一带举行联合军事演习。据悉，联合军演将持续到１０月１１日，并有可能扩展到锡亚琴冰川。

阿斯拉姆说，查谟和克什米尔是国际社会公认的存在领土争议的地区，这一点英国非常清楚，巴基斯坦认为印英在这个地区举行联合军事演习是不合法的。

阿斯拉姆表示，印度在锡亚琴冰川地区的任何军事存在都显然违反了印巴双方达成的《西姆拉协议》，因而是非法的。

１９７２年印度和巴基斯坦签署《西姆拉协议》。根据协议，双方重新设立了控制线，将克什米尔分为两个部分。锡亚琴冰川位于克什米尔地区北部。印巴２００３年１１月在克什米尔实际控制线一带停火后，双方开始讨论在锡亚琴冰川减少驻军和实现停火问题，锡亚琴争端已经成为印巴对话进程中重点谈判的问题之一。  ¶ 1:00 PM 0 comments

  向何处大转移 《财经》特约经济学家 谢国忠《财经》杂志 /总194期 [2007-09-17]

　　制造业成本上升之下，中国重工业仍有成本优势，正进入一个黄金时代；但不应任由轻工业转移出境，而要向内陆转移

制造业成本上升

　　由于通货膨胀和本币升值，中国制造业成本正在上升。目前，人民币对美元名义汇率大约以每年7％的速度升值，包括4％的名义汇率升值和3％的通货膨胀。

　　这一趋势可能导致：第一，出口价格上升（贸易条件改善）；第二，劳动生产率更高（进一步降低成本的潜力）；第三，经济增长减速。前两者在中国出现的可能性比较大。第三种情况通常是不受欢迎的，但在经济出现过热时也不是一件坏事。

最近几年里，中国面临的贸易条件颇为不利。原材料进口占中国总进口额的近三分之一，而CRB指数（美国商品研究局指数）几乎比2002年底翻了一番。出口价格方面，美国的进口统计数据显示，中国出口商品价格仅有轻微上涨，然而相对于过去几年价格节节下跌的情况，这已有里程碑式的意义。这种初显的出口价格上涨趋势，可能会在未来几个月中加强。

最近关于“中国制造”产品安全问题的争议，也和中国制造商面对成本压力采取的对策有关。中国的出口企业通常是一盘散沙，各自为战，而国外进口商则相对集中。很多出口商都只有一两个大客户，要么是大的零售商，要么是大品牌的拥有者。出口商显然为占据市场而不遗余力，所以任何来自客户的涨价要求都会使他们心惊，想方设法压价。这样，有的制造商就不得不采用更低廉的原材料、将产品缩水或省去工艺环节，以求降低成本。

我相信，西方进口商对这种情况其实心知肚明。很多分析师都注意到，最近两年中大型零售商提供的商品在材质和品质上都有下降趋势。因为这些大零售商都在试图削减成本，惟恐涨价毁了他们的形象。因此，他们对供应商的偷工减料也就睁只眼闭只眼了。

随着成本压力不断增加，这种以牺牲产品安全和质量来压低价格的做法终于招致大规模的产品召回。这一后果对于零售商和品牌企业来说都是严重的。他们在未来几年中可能官司缠身，付出巨大代价。高昂的诉讼成本会警醒他们，压榨中国制造商利润的行为具有很大风险。

　　几年前，我曾访问过一家为美国某知名大型零售商供货的台湾电缆企业。该美国零售商每年年底都会对五家供应商进行末位淘汰，所以每家企业都拼命削价以求自保。报价最高的供应商迟早会被炒掉，而美国零售商届时会找到一家新供应商，让他们今后继续彼此倾轧下去。不过，当中国和世界都面临通货膨胀压力时，这种策略便产生了产品质量恶化的后果。那些大零售商将面临的官司开支，可能比此前压榨到的利润还多。

最近几次产品质量事件令一些大型采购商有所醒悟，开始调整他们的采购方式，包括减少供应商数量，加强质量监管。不过，减少供应商数量将显著缩小采购商的议价余地，在某种程度上相当于放弃了压榨策略，买方不得不支付足够高的价格以保证产品质量。

目前的产品质量危机也引发出一个好结果，即中国制造商的定价变得更加可持续。这会提高中国出口产品的价格或改善贸易条件，从而有利于中国通过出口价格提升化解人民币实际汇率升值的成本。


重工业黄金时代

　　布鲁金斯学会最近的一篇文章认为，中国的全要素生产率（TFP）在1993年到2004年间，以每年平均4％的速度增长，而1987年至1983年间则为3.6％。TFP是衡量经济增长的标尺，意为在不增加劳动力或资本投入的情况下，一个经济体生产力的增长。

　　中国所面临的机遇，在于TFP增长在过去两年中再度加速，大约达到6％，而且升势还有望持续。这有利于中国消化人民币实际汇率升值的冲击。如果TFP每年再多增长2％（即达到8％），就可部分抵消实际汇率每年7％的升值。

生产率加速的主要原因首先是重工业的起飞，其次是国内需求的规模效应。

一方面，劳动力向具有更高附加值的产业转移，就会带来TFP的上升。直观地说，当更多的人由制衣业转而生产制衣机器，他们就会创造更多的价值。当日本在20世纪70年代、韩国在80年代分别发生重工业起飞时，都经历过一段生产率高增长。

关于中国的重工业，举例来说，它正逐步发展最大的远洋船舶制造基地。从铁矿石、钢板到整船，中国创造的价值大约占最终产品价值的四分之三。而且比国内附加值高份额更重要的是，重工业工人的工资往往能达到轻工业的两倍。

中国重工业之所以迅速发展的原因之一，是在德国、日本、韩国这样的国家中，重工业工人的工资已达到中国的7倍到20倍。相比之下，中国轻工业出口产品的附加值通常只能占最终产品价值的二分之一，同时它还面临着印尼、越南这样工资水平更低国家的竞争。所以，中国的平均TFP 得以增长，主要源于那些高附加值重工业的扩张。

中国重工业正进入一个黄金时代。从各类机械制造业到汽车零件，其世界市场份额还不足以使重工业产品的价格接近中国的成本水平，所以中国企业仍有很大的增长潜力和利润空间。

不过，总有一天，这些产业都转移到中国这样的国家时，成本差异所产生的利润就会终结。届时，重工业将会进入一个增长缓慢、利润萎缩的时代。这大约是十年以后的事情。

　　另一方面，国内很多领域在需求上的扩张，已可保证相应行业实现最优化的规模经济。例如，城市购买力足以支撑一个规模庞大的房地产市场。

　　中国目前的城市化已经进入起飞阶段，城市化水平约为43％。通过农村与城市间的人口流动，这一水平可以在25年中达到75％。届时，农村人口的年龄结构较之城市人口将明显老化，且数量相对于城市进一步自然萎缩，城市化进程接近完成。城市人口规模会由今天的5.6亿翻一番。假定城市人口平均住房需求为20 平方米，这就意味着新增住宅市场需求为112亿平方米。而现有城市人口对住房条件升级的要求，可能又会产生50亿平方米的需求。依此算来，20年到25年中，每年会产生6.5亿到8.2亿平方米的住宅需求。

住房市场增长的规模并不惊人，目前房地产的开发规模已经基本可以满足上述持续性的需求。价值红利的故事并非来自房地产业，而源自城市扩张给其他经济活动带来的规模效应。随着城市的发展，只要基础设施特别是轨道交通网络也相应发展，经济就会变得更有效率。更多的城市人口有助于实现更深入的劳动分工。由于规模效应，世界上的特大型城市人均收入大多比该国平均水平高50％－100％。随着中国出现越来越多的特大型城市，人们会从这一规模效应中获利更多。

这种城市扩张带来的高效率，可以在很多意想不到的地方表现出来。比如，送货上门服务在小城市可能难以为继，但在大城市就成为赚钱的行业。

城市化是提高国内需求效率最关键的因素。收入增长和规模经济带来的消费升级是另一个重要因素。白领阶层的壮大，支持了高附加值的国内产品和服务业的崛起。例如，职业装是一个巨大且快速增长的市场，其附加值比一般服装、鞋帽要高得多。很多此类产品都具备在全国范围内优化的条件。


轻工业应向内陆转移

生产率提高对中国应对人民币升值影响十分有利。但它对就业和收入分配问题却无能为力。日本和韩国重工业起飞时，劳动力市场接近充分就业。因此，向资本密集型行业的转型对他们有益无害。但是，中国还远未达到充分就业状态，向资本密集型行业的转型，会削弱处于社会底层的非技术劳动力的议价能力。而实际汇率的上升，也提高了人民币对外国产品的购买力，这对高收入群体有利。因此，这样的转换目前可能导致中国的不平等加剧。

所以，中国应当尽最大努力保护其劳动密集型的轻工业。一个好的出路是，把这些行业转移到像江西、安徽、湖南、湖北这样的内陆省份。内陆省份的土地和劳动力成本依然低廉，其生产成本可以和印尼和越南相抗衡。如果在国内有出路的话，很多广东企业还是不愿意迁到东南亚的。

　　但由于基础设施和运输条件的限制，迁往内陆省份的选择暂不现实。轻工业的利润空间有限，且对交货期高度敏感，如果货物在堵塞的高速公路上耽搁，就可能损失掉所有利润，这将是难以承受的。

　　中国应该建设一条经江西、湖南、湖北直达深圳盐田港的货运专线铁路，并在沿途的主要工业园区设置车站，完成远洋航运和铁路运输的无缝对接。沿海企业可以搬迁到内陆的工业园，一如坐落在港口附近一样运转。我与很多准备搬迁到越南的广东出口企业讨论过，他们都表示，如果建设这样一条铁路的想法真的能够实现，他们宁愿迁往内陆。

出口行业向内陆转移会给当地带来更多就业，这有利于缩小地区收入差距。目前的情况是，内陆省份向沿海省份输送劳动力，并依靠打工者寄回的工资发展当地经济。而如果通过就业机会的内移，当地经济会比在当前这种劳动力输出模式下更多地受益。其土地资源和基础设施会被更好地利用，此外，工人的消费支出还可以拉动当地的内需。

建设这样的铁路是十分经济的。2007年，中国的出口总额将超过1.2万亿美元，其中长江和珠江三角洲占了四分之三。如果2000亿美元的出口额转移到内陆，而承担双向运输的铁路收取1％的运费，那么每年20亿美元的运费就足以证明，花300亿美元修一条这样的铁路是合算的。当然，其实际成本可能不过为这一预算的三分之一。因此，这类工程有相当大的商业生存空间。

中国不应急于将轻工业转移出境。例如，家具制造业对中国来说就是一个理想的劳动密集型产业。它进口木材、出口家具，其在国内产生的附加值主要来自劳动力，这符合中国的比较优势。不过，由于家具出口的主要市场是美国，它就成为美国大量贸易赤字的贡献者，因而被美国某些机构视为对中国家具制造业实施惩罚的理由。

把家具制造业迁往越南，只会把美国对中国的部分贸易逆差转到越南，而除了让美国消费者支付更多钱买家具外，这样做并不能改变什么。而且也不能肯定，中美之间的贸易摩擦会因美国逆差缩减而得以缓解。一个基本的事实是，巨额的中美贸易逆差会长期存在，而针对单一行业的贸易政策不可能从根本上解决这一问题。

为了应对人民币实际汇率的升值，中国出口行业应该对其产品价值链进行升级。重工业起飞是一个伟大的进步。不过，中国不应该为此放弃轻工业。中国经济规模之大，足以兼顾二者的发展。大量投资于像连接内陆省份与海港的货运铁路专线这样的项目，将是明智的选择。■  ¶ 1:18 AM 0 comments

  默克尔在德中紧张空气中会晤达赖喇嘛 2007.09.23 Deutsche Welle

德国总理默克尔周日坚持在总理府会晤达赖喇嘛，引起中国方面强烈反应，德国司法部长参加的一次两国法制国家对话被临时取消，中国网站上骂默克尔的网民言论 也放松了管制。此间有媒体说德中关系陷入了危机。但默克尔的行为在德国则受到几乎所有党派的赞扬。这次会晤会带来什么呢？德国之声记者报导与分析如下。

周日的会晤和中国的反应

9月23日中午，达赖喇嘛已在黑森州州长、他的老朋友科赫陪同下抵达柏林。下午他与默克尔总理会晤。达赖和科赫走进总理府时，门前聚集了好几百好奇的民众和记者。德国媒体强调道，这是第一个德国总理在总理府会晤达赖喇嘛。

默克尔要会晤达赖喇嘛的消息刚公布，中国外交部 就召见了8月29日刚递交国书上任的德国驻中国大使施明贤。周三，中国外交部发言人姜瑜在北京新闻会上说：“我们希望德国中国政府在达赖问题上的立场是明 确的。西藏自古就是中国的一部分，西藏事务是中国的内政。达赖不是单纯的宗教人士，而是披着宗教的外衣，长期从事分裂祖国活动、破坏民族团结的政治流亡 者。中方一贯坚决反对任何国家的官方人士以任何名义和形式与达赖接触。”

周日，德国各媒体报导，在默克尔会晤达赖前夕，中国宣布取消原定周日开始的、有德国司法部长齐普里斯和中国高级代表参加的慕尼黑两国司法对话。中方说是“出于技术原因。”

明镜周刊在线说因而出现了“中国和德国之间的严重危机”。德新社说：为了与达赖喇嘛会晤，安吉拉.默克尔总理冒了“德中关系出现高度紧张”的风险。

德新社驻北京记者发回的报导说，中国的抗议第一眼看上去“不象想象中那么激烈”，但中国关于这个行为将损害中德关系的警告却“让德国外交官和经济界代表们紧张”，不知道接下来北京会做些什么。

该记者还说，中国的网上论坛出现了指责默克尔在“玩火”的贴子，该贴子说：“她不懂今天的中国”。这个发贴人要求网管不要删这个贴子。记者认为，这表明发这样的贴子的不是第一个，而中国的网管人原来是一概删除这类贴子的，但现在放宽了管制。

达赖、科赫等人的赞扬

周六，达赖喇嘛在黑森州说：“我欣赏默克尔总理 为人权问题和宗教自由坚定不移的支持。”“我相信她（默克尔）有建立一种真正的友谊的意愿。”他还表示，他不相信这次会晤会长期损害中德关系，“中国人只 是在试探他们的底线。”他还指责北京政府的“恃权高傲”，说北京政府走最简单的路，“那就是压迫。”

达赖的老朋友、黑森州州长兼德国基民盟副主席科赫也在柏林之行前为默克尔会晤达赖辩护：“联邦总理安吉拉.默克尔没有动摇，这很好。我们德国人应该为安吉拉.默克尔给予人权问题这么高的地位，她对全世界明确表明这个态度并按此行动感到高兴和自豪。”

绿党负责人克劳迪亚.罗特也为默克尔讲话，她对德国广播电台说，默克尔的会晤表现了一种负责任的态度，保护西藏的人权也符合德国的利益。

自民党主席威斯特维勒也表示支持默克尔会晤达赖喇嘛，他说，这表明默克尔和施泰因迈尔政府的外交政策跟施罗德政府“有着良好的不同”，“不为近视的策略，而为聪明的勇气所左右。”

设在柏林的“德国国际西藏运动组织”（ICT） 发表声明说：“今天联邦总理默克尔与达赖喇嘛在总理的的会晤具有很高的象征力量，虽然官方仅仅把这说成是私下意见交流。德国联邦总理首次与达赖喇嘛会晤是 对西藏和达赖喇嘛的一个重要支持。西藏问题只能通过达赖喇嘛和中国国家领导人的对话来解决。”

西方领导人会晤达赖进入高峰期

虽然德国联邦总理会晤达赖是第一次，但德国国家领导人这样做几乎可以说是有传统的。德中之间的“达赖风云”主要的有：

1990年，德国当时的总统魏茨泽克在柏林总统 府会晤达赖喇嘛。他是西方第一个会晤达赖的国家元首。1995年，德国当时的外交部长金克尔会晤达赖。中国立即取消了与金克尔的一个日程。

1996年，由 于亲自民党的瑙曼基金会在波恩举办了一个批评中国的西藏问题会议，中国因此而关闭了该基金会的北京代表处，到今天为止，自民党一再努力，这个代表处仍然未 能重开。

1999年，外交部长菲舍尔会晤达赖，他强调道，德国和欧盟所有国家都认为西藏是中国的一部分，但支持西藏对宗教和文化自治权的要求。也许由于这 个讲话含有北京不反对的内容，中国没有采取什么行动。

在国际上，国家领导人会晤达赖的行动还是很多的。美国总统克林顿（1994年）和布什（2001年）都先后把达赖请入白宫。

当然，克林顿、布什和这次默克尔等西方国家领导人都把与达赖会晤的性质说成是“私下”交流意见。

最近，西方领导人会晤达赖似乎有进入高峰期的迹象。就在默克尔之前，9月20日，奥地利总理阿尔弗雷德.古森鲍尔刚会晤了达赖。现在，加拿大总理哈珀也已经表示要在10月会晤达赖。

今后会如何？

默克尔会晤达赖喇嘛，看上去似曾相识，但实际上跟历史上有所区别。可以从三个方面看看这个事件的未来影响。

第一个方面，在德国国内，默克尔此举显然是得分 的，从上述各党（包括几个主要在野党）的反应可以看出这一点。默克尔显然是位个人全能得分高手。在今年她身为主席国领导人的八国峰会、欧盟峰会上，她都得 了分，而且是大分；访问中国时，她讲人权，又得了德国媒体的广泛赞扬；现在她会晤达赖喇嘛，已经得到德国国内普遍好评。即使是热衷于德中经济关系的德国经 济界，在这些问题上也只能“表示担忧”，没法公开说反对的话。

第二个方面，在德中关系上，毫无疑问，政治关系 会受到一定的影响。至于“危机”之说，可能言过其实。这从中方相对温和的反应就可以看出。即使是取消法制国家对话，中方也说是“技术原因”。当然，默克尔 也不希望把关系搞僵了，所以学习布什等的样子，把会晤性质定为“私下交流意见”。

北京对默克尔的看法进一步恶劣，这是可以断定的。德新社驻北京记者报导道：许多中国人，包括颇有影响的中国前驻德国大使梅兆荣历来对默克尔的对华政策不看好，因为默克尔来自前东德地区，对专制政权有她的历史看法。在梅兆荣等人眼里，现在他们的看法更得到了证实。

中国一位官员日前说，默克尔这次访问中国与温家 宝会谈时，温家宝说，不少人说德中关系在默克尔上台后变坏了，他不这么认为，他觉得德中关系还是在发展，在进步（大意）。这位官员认为，默克尔错误地理解 了温家宝总理的话。温家宝实际上是在委婉地批评，否则就根本不会提这个话题。这是用外交辞令来批评。但默克尔大概以为真的是在赞扬。

为什么默克尔总理对中国的态度跟前任施密特、科 尔和施罗德有这么大的区别呢？当然，这里面有个人的因素，德国的中国问题专家辜学武、中国前驻德国大使梅兆荣等人都认为跟默克尔来自德国东部对前独裁政权 的看法有关。但应该并非完全是个人因素。有一点也许更重要，即中国的地位发生了质的变化，中国与西方的关系也因而变化了。在前几任德国总理任上时，中国还 是一个高速发展的发展中国家，总体上还是一个弱者，也就是说重要的是通过支持和扶助来共同获益的；而现在中国质变成了一个各方面的强者，虽然这个强者形象 还刚刚开始，但西方已经把它更多地视为对手。与对手之间，是需要经常针锋相对的。这一年来，各方面对中国的态度，包括玩具，黑客事件，等等，都可以看到这 种新的关系的形成，并非仅仅在德中之间。也许在许多政治家心里还是一种潜意识的东西，但实际上这种关系确实是变化了的。对一个强者示弱，或过分地示好，容 易失去国内民心。

西方各国领导人中为什么忽然出现达赖喇嘛热呢？ 这里面固然有达赖跟中国的谈判最近破裂的因素在内，但深思一下，会发现并非仅仅如此，这似乎是一个对抗系列片中的一集。也就是说，现在可以说是处于中国与 西方关系转折的微妙阶段，很容易情绪化，而且情绪化已经存在。无论对西方各国来说，还是对中国来说，都需要一种空前的技巧来处理外交问题。软硬之间，是很 难掌握的，对今后的世界外交关系却又是有着重大关联的。

第三个方面，达赖与中国政府之间的关系，是否会通过奥地利、德国和加拿大三位总理的会晤和西方其它国家的做法与压力而有所转变呢？

应该说，如果把这些会晤理解成压力，可能会适得其反。中国政府喜欢强调，不会为任何人所左右。比如在汇率问题上。但也正是在汇率问题上，可以看到中国政府正在变得越来越灵活。

实际上，现在的中国政府比文革期间的中国政府聪 明多了。综观这十、二十年来的中国外交，可以发现，中国领导人现在首先考虑的是自身的利益，并没有一味的强硬，有时候还十分的灵活。在西藏问题上，在与梵 蒂冈关系问题上，在汇率问题上，都没有把门关死，经常有些动作。现在的西藏问题似乎僵在达赖提出的大藏区问题。现在中国的言辞很激烈，把达赖定性为分裂分 子。但是，达赖喇嘛的态度也是比较灵活的，他也已经反复表示过不求独立了，而且他想在有生之年返回西藏的愿望是强烈的。假如达赖喇嘛再灵活一些，中国也应 该会灵活一些。中国与达赖的谈判应该不会不再进行.要有重大突破谈何容易，但哪一天如果重新开谈，那也并不奇怪。而且，重新开谈也会让中国得分，尤其在对 抗情绪普遍比较严重的今天，或者明天。（sr）

Labels: Tibet

  ¶ 7:54 AM 0 comments